第54回統計地震学セミナー / The 54th Statistical Seismology Seminar
- Date&Time
- 2016年2月9日（火）
/ 9 February, 2016 (Tuesday) 16:00 – 17:00
- Place
- 統計数理研究所 セミナー室4 (D312B)
/ Seminar room 4 (D312B) @ The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
- Speaker
- Ting Wang (University of Otago, New Zealand)
- Title
- Identification of seismic phases using Markov-modulated marked Hawkes processes
- Abstract
- Based on a temporal Markov-modulated Hawkes process that we developed earlier to investigate long-term patterns of seismic activity with multiple mainshocks, we made extensions to this temporal model to include spatial variation of the seismic activity and the earthquake magnitudes. Our aim is to categorize spatiotemporal seismic hazards holistically, using the entire earthquake record in a selected region to identify patterns correlated with subsequent large earthquakes, rather than the traditional way of selecting individual foreshock-mainshock or mainshock-aftershock sequences. I will use several case studies to illustrate how this model works and discuss about the problems that we had with the model fitting.
