Symposium ‐ What is a good model? Evidential statistics, information criterion and model evaluation. ‐

Date
January 12-13, 2016

Admission Free,No Booking Necessary

Place
2nd conference room on the 3rd floor
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Organizer
Shimatani, Ken Ichiro (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)
Contact by e-mail: shimatanアットマークism.ac.jp
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Program

【January 12 (Tue)】

10:00-10:20 Opening introduction.
Shimatani, Ken Ichiro (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

10:20-11:50 Introduction to evidential statistics.
Taper, L. Mark (Montana State University, University of Florida)
Dennis, Brian (University of Idaho)
Lele, Subhash (University of Alberta)
Ponciano, José Miguel (University of Florida)

12:50-14:20
Watanabe, Sumio (Tokyo Institute of Technology)
Cross Validation and WAIC in Statistical Model Evaluation.

14:30-15:15
Taper, L. Mark (Montana State University, University of Florida)
Projections in model space: Multi-model inference beyond model averaging.

15:45-16:30
Yamamura, Kohji (National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences)
RD criterion for evaluating the predictive ability of models.

16:30-17:15
Dennis, Brian (University of Idaho)
Evidence, errors, and AIC.

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【January 13 (Wed)】

10:00-10:15 Introduction to the 2nd day.
Shimatani, Ken Ichiro (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

10:15-11:45
Shimodaira, Hidetoshi (Osaka University)
TBA

12:45-13:30
Lele, Subhash (University of Alberta)
Data cloning: An overview and some new results

13:30-14:15
Matsuo, Masahiro (Hokkaido University)
Some philosophical viewpoints on the model selection theory.

14:45-15:30
Takasu, Fugo (Nara Women's University)
Spatial population models as a point pattern dynamics.

15:30-16:15
Kasuya, Eiichi (Kyushu University)
 TBA

16:15-17:00
Ponciano, José Miguel (University of Florida)
The strength of evidence, and the probability of misleading evidence under model misspecification.

-17:45 Overall discussion

Commentators
Morimoto, Ryota (Health Sciences University of Hokkaido)
Kondoh, Michio (Ryukoku University)
Kishino, Hirohisa (University of Tokyo)

Supported by Data Centric Science Research Commons, Research Organization of Information and Systems, the Risk Analysis Research Center in the Institute of Statistical Mathematics and JPSS KAKENHI Grant Number 25340110.

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