Updated on 18 October 2017

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愢柧: arrow30-003   PresentationsPage (18 October 2017) UP!

愢柧: arrow30-003   Published PapersPage (18 October 2017) UP!

 愢柧: arrow30-003   Our SeminarsPage (28 September 2017)

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愢柧: arrow30-003   CCEP ReportsPage (7 June 2017)

 

NEW! Associate Prof. Zhuang is appointed as an external professor by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.
(July 2017- June 2020)
  (August 2017)

Associate Prof. Zhuang and Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave tutorial lectures the Peking University summer school on 乬Micro--Seismicity Detection and Analysis乭. (2-7 July 2017, Peking University)
    Ogata, Y. 乬Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalog and hypothesis testing (1)-(2)乭
    Zhuang, J. 乬Probability modelling and forecasting of seismicity (1)-(4)乭

Dr. Han, Peng and Dr. Guo, Yicun presented their research results at International Young Scholar乫s Forum of Geophysical Research Frontiers: Modern Earthquake Observational Techniques for Chinese Mainland. (8-10 July 2017, Peking University)
    Han, P. 乬Advances of researches on ULF seismo-electro magnetic signal in Kanto region, Japan乭
    Guo, Y. 乬An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering乭

10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10) (Wellington, New Zealand, 20-24 February 2017).
Prof. Emeritus Ogata received Award for the most loyal StatSei eetings attendee. (February 2017)

Works by Prof. Emeritus Ogata will be televised in NHK Special on Sunday night (Sept. 11, 21:00 - )(TV Japan) (September 2016)

PAGEOPH (Pure and Applied Geophysics) Topical VolumeCurrent Challenges in Statistical Seismology (Editors: Huang, Q., Gerstenberger, M. and Zhuang, J.) has been published. (January 2016)

Special Issue on Earthquake prediction and the statistical model乭 has been published in Proceedings of the Institute of the Statistical Mathematics, edited and written by our research group. (October 2015)

Number of citing papers of the ETAS point process model for seismic activity (Ogata, 1988, JASA) has exceeded 1,000. (September 2015)
Seach 乬Ogata. Y.乭 in Google Scholar

Number of citing papers of the space-time ETAS point process model (Ogata, 1998, AISM) has exceeded 500. (September 2015)
Seach 乬Ogata. Y.乭 in Google Scholar

CORSSA Lectures at StatSei.  (July 2015)
A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research(2013: Yosihiko Ogata at StatSei8 in Beijing)

9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9) (Potsdam, Germany, 14 -18 June 2015).

ETAS model has been applied to global seismicity (Nature Geoscience). (August 2013) 

The Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP), Japan, show policy to go with the the probability forecast. (August 2013) 

8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8) (Beijing, China, 11-15 August 2013).

We have proposed the method of real-time probability forecasting of aftershocks immediately after the main shock (joint with Aihara FIRST project at Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo). (July 2013) 

The table providing the completeness magnitude in Japan (JMA catalogue) has been opened. image001  Softwares and DatabasePage (24 July 2013)

International Workshop on CORSSA 2.0 Workshop
---The Second International CORSSA (the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis) Workshop--- (22-25 January 2013).

A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research (November 2012).

Nikkei Newspaper. (23 April 2012) (Japanese)

Sankei Newspaper. (11 March 2012) (Japanese)

International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes on the occasion of celebrating
Prof. Yosi Ogata's 40-year research career in statistical seismology
(11-14 March 2012).

12-13 July 2011ERI Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting (2)" (Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba City, Japan). (6 July 2011)

 [JGR downloaded, Best 16 per month]
Dr. Andrea Llenos (
our group member, U.S. Geological Survey) & Dr. Jeffrey J. McGuire (our group member, WHOI, U.S.A.) (published 17 June) became one of the most frequently viewed paper (60 download monthly at 5 July) in JGR Solid Earth. (American Geophysical Union (AGU): JGR Solid Earth Most Popular Articles in the Last 30 Days: 乬Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data (5 July 2011)

[JGR downloaded, Best 11 per month]
The recent paper by our student Shunichi Nomura et al. (
published 30 April) became one of the most frequently viewed paper (48 download monthly at 3 June) in JGR Solid Earth. (American Geophysical Union (AGU): JGR Solid Earth Most Popular Articles in the Last 30 Days: 乬Bayesian forecasting of recurrent earthquakes and predictive performance for a small sample size (3 June 2011)
Incidentally, the 2nd best downloaded paper discuss the ETAS model乫s performance for short-term forecasting. (AGU: JGR Solid Earth Most Popular Articles in the Last 30 Days: 乬A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence (3 June 2011)

Asahi Newspaper has introduced our application to a probability earthquake forecast contest in Japan. (Asahi Newspaper 乬aspara club乭) (Japanese)  (18 January 2011)

[Top50 citation of Tectonophysics 2005-2010 ]
The paper by Prof. Ogata and Dr. Zhuang (
Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol.413, Issue 1-2, Pages 13-23.) has been one of the 乬Top-50 most cited articles乭 published in Tectonophysics 2005-2010. (29 November 2010)

[Published in Nature ]
The paper by Prof. Shinji Toda (
our group member, Visiting Prof. of the ISM) et al. (2010) on the mechanism for the spatial aftershock distribution is published in Nature. (18 November 2010)

[JGR download, 668 times per week]
The recent paper by our student Takao Kumazawa et al. (
published 30 October) became one of the most frequently viewed paper (668 download weekly at 11 November) in JGR Solid Earth. (American Geophysical Union (AGU):JGR Solid Earth Most Popular: Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake)  Most Popular Journal Articles / Top 4 Weekly Downloads (Across all Journals). (15 November 2010)

7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei7) (Thera (Santrini), Greece, 25-27 May 2011).

Column by the leader was published in newspaper of Kanagawa Shinbun on 8 November 2010. (Japanese)  (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies [SOKENDAI] Institutional Repository)

Dr. Zhuang is contributing to the CORSSA project. (22 September 2010)

Prof. Ogata visited Department of Geophysics, Peking University from 12th September to 11th October, 2010 as a Visiting Professor of School of Earth and Space Science.

Dr. Zhuang visited Department of Geophysics, Peking University from 12th September to 11th October, 2010 as a Visiting Professor of School of Earth and Space Science.

Prof. Ogata is organizing a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (August 2010)

The Etas model is under discussion in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Project Plan Version 3 (UCERF3). (August 2010)

We are working under Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismology of Japan (EFSSJ), Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). (July2010)

Prof. Ogata has organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (June 2010)

International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Seminar Room 3 (D312A), The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 31 May 2010).

Prof. Ogata presents Keynote lecture (IL-SONG lecture) at The Spring Korean Statistical Society Annual Meeting (31 May 2010) .

Column about Prof. Ogata introduced in the morning newspaper of Asahi Shimbun on 9 February 2010. (Japanese)