Updated on 31 August 2010

Prediction and Knowledge Discovery Research Center

Statistical Seismology Research Group

¨ Members:  (Updated on 24 August 2010)

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Statistical Seismology Seminars

NewsF                                              UP!   Statistical Seismology Research Group: Lectures & Talks (Updated on 23 August 2010) UP!

NEW ! Prof. Ogata is organizing a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (31 August 2010 NEW !)

NEW ! Dr. Zhuang will be at Department of Geophysics, Peking University for a month from 12 September 2010 as a Visiting Researcher of School of Earth and Space Science.

NEW ! The ETAS model is under discussion in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Project Plan Version 3 (UCERF3). (2 August 2010 NEW !)

NEW ! Prof. Ogata will be at Department of Geophysics, Peking University for a month from 12 September 2010 as a Visiting Professor of School of Earth and Space Science.

We are working under Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan (EFSSJ) , Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). (28 July 2010 NEW !)

Prof. Ogata has organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction.

International Workshop on Statistical Seismology  (Seminar Room 3 (D312A), The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 31 May 2010).

Prof. Ogata presents Keynote lecture (IL-SONG lecture) at The Spring Korean Statistical Society Annual Meeting (31 May 2010).

It was published in the morning newspaper on 9 February 2010 of Asahi Shimbun.(Japanese)

ISM News No.104 iMay, 2009j: gResearch Front Lineh (Japanese)

Dr. Zhuang of our group emergently invited to join the Sichuang Great Earthquake Expert Group at China Earthquake Administration for the analysis and forecasting of the aftershocksiMay-June, 2008j

The paper in GRL by Dr. Takaki Iwata (Statistical Seismology Research Group) et al. has been selected in Editor's Highlights of Geophysical Research Letters published.
iAmerican Geophysical Union (AGU): gJOURNAL HIGHLIGHTSh 11 November 2005j

The External Review Report on the Statistical Seismology Research Project (August, 2006)

Progress Report on the ISM Project 2003-2007

 

Software for point process analyses are available

Software for the seismicity analyses are available

Results: Poster etc. 

 

Research SubjectsF

This group is concerned with evaluation of seismicity anomalies by the ETAS model, detection of crustal stress changes, modeling of such mechanisms, and probability forecasting of large aftershocks and earthquakes.

 

Contribution of the group public interestsiLinkjF

1.      Probabilistic forecast of aftershocks (Earthquake Research Committee)

I.        The Establishment of Study Subcommittee for Aftershock Probability Evaluation Method

II.    Regarding methods for estimating aftershock probabilities

2.      Probabilistic forecast of large events on an active fault (Earthquake Research Committee)

3.      Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction

 

Toaster, the detective, and Stats  gSearch the features of earthquake occurrencesh <<< Movie

Presentation of a Tutorial Talk at IMA