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Published PapersUpdated on 18 October 2017        愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: arrows_8-04  擔杮岅 


 

April 2017 - March 2018

NEW!

Jiang, C., Zhuang, J., Wu, Z. and Bi, J. (2017). Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.60, No.10, pp.4132-4144, doi:10.6038/cjg20171038, October 2017.

Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock – mainshock – aftershock sequence, Geophysical Journal International, doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407. (Published 22 September 2017)

 

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

Yang, H., Liu, Y., Wei, M., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2017). Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, Vol.60, No.9, pp.1632-1644, doi:10.1007/s11430-017-9063-0, September 2017.

Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). Hidden Markov modelling of sparse time series from non-volcanic tremor observations, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series C(Applied Statistics), Vol.66, Issue4, pp.691–715, doi:10.1111/rssc.12194, August 2017. (First published 10 November 2016)

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., Hirata, N. and Zhou, S. (2017). Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.122, Issue7, pp.5288-5305, doi:10.1002/2017JB014064, July 2017.

Wang, D., Kawakatsu H., Zhuang, J., Mori, J., Maeda, T., Tsuruoka, H. and Zhao, X. (2017). Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large earthquakes using back-projection and P-wave amplitude, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.44, Issue11, pp.5447-5456, doi:10.1002/2017GL073801, June 2017.

 

Ogata, Y. (2017). Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.88, No.4, pp.1117-1126, doi:10.1785/0220170006, July/August 2017.

Ogata, Y. (2016). Statistics of Earthquake Activity: Models and Methods for Earthquake Predictability Studies, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol.45, pp.497-527, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-015918. (Volume publication date June 2017)

 

 

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

April 2016 - March 2017

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Wang, T. (2017). Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.69, Article36, doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0614-6, February 2017. (Open Access)

Zhuang, J., Wang, D. and Matsu'ura, M. (2016). Features of earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones' branching crack model, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, No.4, pp.1832-1839, doi:10.1785/0120150337, August 2016.

Luo, J. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Three regimes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, Issue3, pp.1364-1369, doi:10.1785/0120150324, June 2016.

Huang, Y., Zhou, S. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Numerical tests on catalog-based methods to estimate magnitude of completeness (in Chinese with English abstract), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.59, No.4, pp.1350-1358, doi:10.6038/cjg20160416, April 2016.

Chu, A. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement. In Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake Assessment, edited by Y.-G. Li., pp.219-237, ISBN-13: 978-3110432527, February 2016.

 

Zakharova, O., Hainzl, S., Lange, D. and Enescu, B. (2017). Spatial Variations of Aftershock Parameters and their Relation to Geodetic Slip Models for the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki Earthquakes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.174, Issue1, pp.77-102, doi:10.1007/s00024-016-1408-7, January 2017.

Enescu, B., Shimojo, K., Opris, A, and Yagi, Y. (2016). Remote triggering of seismicity at Japanese volcanoes following the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article165, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0539-5, October 2016. (Open Access)

Kasahara, A., Yagi, Y. and Enescu, B. (2016). etas_solve: A robust program to estimate the ETAS model parameters, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.87, No.5, pp.1143-1149, doi:10.1785/0220150240, September 2016. (Open Access)

Yagi, Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B., Kasahara, A., Miyakawa, A. and OtsuboM. (2016). Rupture process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in relation to the thermal structure around Aso volcano, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article118, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0492-3, July 2016. (Open Access)

Tormann, T., Wiemer, S., Enescu, B. and Woessner, J. (2016). Normalized rupture potential for small and large earthquakes along the Pacific Plate off Japan, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.43, pp.7468-7477, doi:10.1002/2016GL069309, July 2016. (Open Access)

Reverso, T., Marsan, D., Helmstetter, A. and Enescu, B. (2016). Background seismicity in Boso Peninsula, Japan: Long-term acceleration, and relationship with slow slip events, Geophysical Research Letters, Issue11, pp.5671-5679, doi:10.1002/2016GL068524, June 2016.

 

Ishibe, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2017). Testing the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes, Geoscience Letters, Vol.4, No.5, doi:10.1186/s40562-017-0070-y, March 2017. (Open Access)

Ogata, Y. (2017). On spontaneous seismicity rate in Japan inland (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.97, pp.9-12, March 2017.

Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H., Omi, T., Nomura, S., Kumazawa, T. and Aihara, K. (2017). Seismic activity before and after the 2016 Central Tottori Prefecture earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.97, pp.368-374, March 2017.

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kato, A. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical analysis of the swarm activity induced by the 2016 April earthquake of M6.1 at the southeast off the coast of the Mie Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.304-310, September 2016.

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of seismicity in Kyushu District before the occurrence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes of M6.5 and M7.3 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.642-651, September 2016.

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2016). Foreshock forecast probabilities of the M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.652-657, September 2016.

Ogata, Y. (2016). Provisional calculations of the probability forecast of the Kumamoto M7.3 earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.658-661, September 2016.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Aihara, K. (2016). Probability aftershock forecasting of the M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto earthquakes of 2016 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.662-667, September 2016.

 

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Background rates of swarm earthquakes that are synchronized with volumetric strain changes, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.442, pp.51-60, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.049, May 2016. (Available online: March 2016)

Kato, A., Fukuda, J., Kumazawa, T. and Nakagawa, S. (2016). Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake, Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group), Vol.6, ArticleNo.24792, doi:10.1038/srep24792, April 2016.

 

Han, P., Hattori, K., Zhuang, J., Chen, C-H., Liu, J-Y. and Yoshida S. (2016). Evaluation of ULF seismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka, Japan by using Molchan's error diagram, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.208, Issue1, pp.482-490, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw404, November, 2016.

Han, P., Hattori, K., Huang, Q., Hirooka, S. and Yoshino, C. (2016). Spatiotemporal characteristics of the geomagnetic diurnal variation anomalies prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the possible coupling of multiple pre-earthquake phenomena, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, Vol.129, pp.13-21,        doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.011, November 2016.

 

Nomura, S. Ogata, Y., Uchida, N. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2016). Spatiotemporal variations of interplate slip rates in northeast Japan inverted from recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.208, Issue1, pp.468-481, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw395, October 2016.

 

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K. (2016). Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using real-time seismicity data in Japan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, No.6, pp.2450-2458, doi:10.1785/0120160100, December 2016.

 

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

April 2015 - March 2016

Huang, Q., Gestenberger, M. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Current Challenges in Statistical Seismology, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.173, Issue1, pp.1-3, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1222-7, January 2016.

Chen, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J. (2015). Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.173, Issue1, pp.305-319, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1114-x, January 2016.

Zhuang, J. (2015). Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes, Spatial Statistics, Vol.14, PartB, pp.166-178, doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.07.009, November 2015.

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2015). A hypocentral version of the space–time ETAS model, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.203, Issue1, pp.366-372, doi:10.1093/gji/ggv319, October 2015.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2015).  Evaluation Methods of Earthquake Forecasts (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.29-44, June 2015.

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2015). An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue5, pp.3309–3323, doi:10.1002/2015JB011979, May 2015.

 

Tormann, T., Enescu, B., Woessner, J. and Wiemer, S. (2016). Reply to 'Tohoku rupture reloaded?', Nature Geoscience, Vol.9, pp.183-185, doi:10.1038/ngeo2650, March 2016.

Yagi, Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B. and Fukahata, Y. (2015). Unusual low-angle normal fault earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.67, Article100, doi:10.1186/s40623-015-0271-6, June 2015.

Gardonio, B., Marsan, D., Lengline, O., Enescu, B., Bouchon, M. and Got, J.-L. (2015). Changes in seismicity and stress loading on subduction faults in the Kanto region, Japan, 2011-2014, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2616-2626, doi:10.1002/2014JB011798, April 2015.

Cattania, C., Hainzl, S., Wang, L., Enescu, B. amd Roth, F. (2015). Aftershock triggering by postseismic stresses: A study based on Coulomb rate-and-state models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2388-2407, doi:10.1002/2014JB011500, April 2015.

 

Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of aftershock sequences: a case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article44, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0410-8, March 2016. Open Access

Ogata, Y. (2015). Monitoring seismicity anomalies by statistical models (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.94, pp.412-423, September 2015.

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.94, pp.136-144, September 2015.

Ogata, Y. (2015). On the Special Topic 乬Statistical Seismology Research on Earthquake Predictability (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.1-2, June 2015.

Ogata, Y. (2015). Stochastic Prediction of Earthquakes --- A Strategy for the Research (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.3-27, June 2015.

 

Iwata, T. (2016). A variety of aftershock decays in the rate- and state-friction model due to the effect of secondary aftershocks: Implications from an analysis of real aftershock sequences, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.173, No.1, pp.21-33, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1151-5, January 2016.

Iwata, T. and Kanao, M. (2015). The annual variation in teleseismic detection capability at Syowa Station, Antarctica: a statistical analysis considering the effect of air temperature (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.37, No.9, pp.400-406, September 2015.

Iwata, T. (2015). Earthquake Forecasting Based on the Correlation between Earth Tides and Earthquake Occurrences (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.129-144, June 2015.

 

Kumazawa, T. (2015). Modeling Seismicity Anomalies (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.45-64, June 2015.

 

Sato, T., Higuchi, H., Miyauchi, T., Endo, K., Tsumura, N., Ito, T., Noda, A. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2016). The source model and recurrence interval of Genroku-type earthquakes estimated from paleo-shoreline data, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article17, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0395-3, February 2016.

Fukahata, Y. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2016). Deformation of island-arc lithosphere due to steady plate subduction, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.204, Issue2, pp.825-840, doi:10.1093/gji/ggv482, February 2016.

Matsu乫ura, M. and Noda, A. (2015). Inversion Analysis of GPS Data and Forecast of Earthquake Occurrence (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.105-127, June 2015.

 

Nomura, S. (2015). Point Process Models for Recurrent Earthquakes at Active Faults and Their Long-term Forecast (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.83-104, June 2015.

 

Omi, T. (2015). Real-time Short- and lntermediate-term Forecasting of Aftershocks after a Main Shock (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.65-81, June 2015.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2015). Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2561–2578, doi:10.1002/2014JB011456, April 2015.

 

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

April 2014 - March 2015

Zhuang, J. and Touati, S. (2015). Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogues, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-43806322, March 2015. (available at http://www.corssa.org)

Murru, M., Zhuang, J., Console, R. and Falcone, G. (2014). Short-term earthquake forecasting experiment before and during the L'Aquila (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 2009, Annual of Geophysics, Vol.57, No.6, doi:10.4401/ag-6583, November 2014.

Zechar, J.D. and Zhuang, J. (2014). A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.199, Issue1, pp.60-68, doi:10.1093/gji/ggu137, October 2014.

Han, P., Hattori K., Hirokawa, M., Zhuang, J., Chen, C.-H., Febriani, F., Yamaguchi, H., Yoshino, C., Liu, J.-Y. and Yoshida, S. (2014). Statistical analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 2001-2010, Journal of Geophysical Reseach: Space Physics, Vol.119, Issue6, pp.4998-5011, doi:10.1002/2014JA019789, June 2014.

Zoeller, G., Holschneider, M., Hainzl, S. and Zhuang, J. (2014). The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.104, No.2, pp.769-779, doi:10.1785/0120130103, April 2014.

 

Enescu, B., Shibutani, T., Ito, K., Ohmi, S and Wada, H. (2015). Seismic activity and one-dimensional velocity structure along the Atotsugawa fault, from precise hypocenter relocations, Earth Evolution Sciences, Vol. 9, pp.5-14, March 2015.

Tormann, T., Enescu, B., Woessner, J. and Wiemer, S. (2015). Randomness of megathrust earthquakes implied by rapid stress recovery after the Japan earthquake, Nature Geoscience, Vol.8, pp.152-158, doi:10.1038/ngeo2343, February 2015.

Shimojo, K., Enescu, B., Yagi, Y. and Takeda, T. (2014). Fluid-driven seismicity activation in northern Nagano region after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, Issue21, pp.7524-7531, doi:10.1002/2014GL061763, November 2014.

Cattania, C., Hainzl, S., Wang, L., Roth, F. and Enescu, B. (2014). Propagation of Coulomb stress uncertainties in physics-based aftershock models, Journal of Geophysical Reseach, Vol.119, Issue10, pp.7846-7864, doi:10.1002/2014JB011183, October 2014.

Yagi, Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B., Hirano, S., Yamagami, Y., Endo, S. and Komoro, T. (2014). Rupture process of the 2014 Iquique Chile Earthquake in relation with the foreshock activity, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, Issue 12, pp.4201-4206, doi:10.1002/2014GL060274, June 2014.

Sawazaki, K. and Enescu, B. (2014). Imaging the high-frequency energy radiation process of a main shock and its early aftershock sequence: The case of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan, Journal of Geophysical Reseach, Vol.119, Issue6, pp.4729-4746, doi:10.1002/2013JB010539, June 2014.

 

Ogata, Y. (2015). Evaluating predictive ability of background seismicity, aftershocks and induced earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.93, pp.415-426, March 2015.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2014). Comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock forecasting in observed and simulated earthquake catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.119, Issue11, pp.8457-8477, doi:10.1002/2014JB011250, November 2014.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Probability aftershock forecasting by the ETAS model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.92, pp.386-389, September 2014.

 

Iwata, T. and Kanao, M. (2015). A quantitative evaluation of the annual variation in teleseismic detection capability at Syowa Station, Antarctica, Polar Science, Vol.9, Issue1, pp.26-34, doi:10.1016/j.polar.2014.10.002, March 2015.

Iwata, T. (2014). Decomposition of Seasonality and Long-term Trend in Seismological Data: A Bayesian Modelling of Earthquake Detection Capability, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol.56, Issue3, pp.201-215, doi:10.1111/anzs.12079, September 2014.

 

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Nonstationary ETAS models for nonstandard earthquakes, Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol.8, No.3, pp.1825-1852, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS759, http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1414091236, September 2014.

 

Hashima, A., Fukahata, Y., Hashimoto, C. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2014). Quasi-static strain and stress fields due to a moment tensor in elastic-viscoelastic layered half-space, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.171, Issue8, pp.1669-1693, doi:10.1007/s00024-013-0728-0, August 2014.

Hashimoto, C., Fukuyama, E. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2014). Physics-based 3-D simulation of earthquake generation cycles at plate interfaces in subduction zones, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.171, Issue8, pp.1705-1728, doi:10.1007/s00024-013-0716-4, August 2014.

 

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Nadeau, R.M. (2014). Space-time model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of recurrence intervals on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.119, Issue9, pp.7092-7122, doi:10.1002/2013JB010558, September 2014.

 

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.66, No.4, pp.687-702, doi:10.1007/s10463-013-0431-z, August 2014.

 

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

April 2013 - March 2014

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2014). Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region, in Seismic Imaging, Fault Damage and Heal, edited by Li Y., Germany: De Gruyter together with China: Higher Education Press, pp.351-376, March 2014.

Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (2014). Possibility of the independence between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on Longmen Shan Fault, Sichuan, China, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.85, No.1, pp.60-67, doi:10.1785/0220130115, January 2014.

Zhuang, J., Werner, M.J. and Harte, D.S. (2013). Stability of earthquake clustering models: Criticality and branching ratios, Physical Review E, Vol.88, Issue6, 062109(1-13), doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062109, December 2013.

Jiang, C., Zhuang, J., Long, F. and Han, L. (2013). Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake sequence, Acta Seismologica Sinica, Vol.35, No.5, pp.661-669, doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.05.005 (In Chines with English abstract), November 2013.

Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Zhuang, J., Satake, K. and Hamdache, M. (2013). Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model, Geophysical Journal international, Vol.194, Issue3, pp.1823-1835, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt194, September 2013.

Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Satake, K., Zhuang, J. and Hamdache, M. (2013). Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering, Journal of Seismology, Vol.17, Issue3, pp.1041-1061, doi:10.1007/s10950-013-9371-6, July 2013.

Jiang, C.-S., Wu, Z.-L. and Zhuang, J.-C. (2013). ETAS model applied to the Earthquake-Sequence Association (ESA) problem: the Tangshan sequence, Chinese Journal Geophysics, Vol.56, Issue9, pp.2971-2981, doi:10.6038/cjg20130911, July 2013.

Wang, T., Zhuang, J, Kato, T. and Bebbington, M. (2013). Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.40, Issue11, pp.2631-2635, doi:10.1002/grl.50554, June 2013.

Jacobs, K.M., Smith, E.G.C., Savage, M.K. and Zhuang, J. (2013). Cumulative rate analysis (CURATE): a clustering algorithm for swarm dominated catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue2, pp.553-569, doi:10.1029/2012JB009222, February 2013.

 

Marsan, D., Reverso, T., Helmstetter, A. and Enescu, B. (2013). Slow slip and aseismic deformation episodes associated with the subducting Pacific plate offshore Japan, revealed by changes in seismicity, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue9, pp.4900-4909, doi:10.1002/jgrb.50323, September 2013.

Chao, K., Peng, Z., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Aiken, C., Enescu, B., Kao, H., Velasco, A.A., Obara, K. and Matsuzawa, T. (2013). A global search for triggered tremor following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.103, No.2B, pp.1551-1571, doi:10.1785/0120120171, May 2013.

 

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks after the main shock (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.66-71, March 2014.

Ogata, Y. (2014). The aftershock activity of M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in and around outer-rise region (2011.3.11-2013.10.26) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.72-76, March 2014.

Ogata, Y. (2014). Aftershock activity of the 13 April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 in Awaji Island (2011.4.13-2013.11.8) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.267-268, March 2014.

Ogata, Y. (2014). Probablistic forecasts of large earthquakes using statistical models (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.387-395, March 2014.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, pp.850-857, doi:10.1002/2013GL058958, February 2014.

Ogata, Y. (2013). A prospect of earthquake prediction research, Statistical Science, Vol.28, No.4, pp.521-541, doi:10.1214/13-STS439, November 2013.

Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and analysis of repeating earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from July 15, 1993 till March 11, 2011 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.49-53, September 2013.

Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and statistical analysis of repeating earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from July 15, 1993 till March 10, 2011, on emphasis of before and after major earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.54-57, September 2013.

Ogata, Y. (2013).Aftershock activity of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (2011.3.11 - 2013.2.2) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.104-108, September 2013.

Ogata, Y. (2013). Long-term aftershock activity of the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 until the 13 April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 near Awaji Island (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.352-355, September 2013.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock, Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group), Vol.3, ArticleNo.2218, doi:10.1038/srep02218, July 2013.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. and Zhuang, J. (2013). Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.103, No.3, pp.1692-1708, doi:10.1785/0120120063, June 2013.

Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y. (2013). A non-stationary epidemic type aftershock sequence model for seismicity prior to the December 26, 2004 M9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands mega-earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, pp.616-629, doi:10.1002/jgrb.50068, February 2013.

 

Iwata, T. (2013). Estimation of completeness magnitude considering daily variation in earthquake detection capability, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.194, Issue3, pp.1909-1919, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt208, September 2013.

Iwata, T., Yamazaki, Y. and Kuninaka, H. (2013). Apparent transition in the human height distribution caused by age-dependent variation during puberty period, Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol.82, Issue8, http://dx.doi.org/10.7566/JPSJ.82.084803, August 2013.

Iwata, T. (2013). Large volume data and their analysis in solid earth science - Recent development and future prospects in Japan (in Japanese), Systems, Control and Information, Vol.57, No.4, pp.172-177, April 2013.

Iwata, T. (2013). Daily variation in earthquake detection capability: a quantitative evaluation, in Earthquake Research and Analysis: New Advances in Seismology (ed. D'Amico. S.), InTech, Rijeka, Croatia, pp.167-184, doi:10.5772/54890, March 2013.

 

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue12, pp.6165-6182, doi:10.1002/2013JB010259, December 2013.

 

Noda, A., Hashimoto, C., Fukahata, Y. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2013). Interseismic GPS strain data inversion to estimate slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces: application to the Kanto region, central Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.193, Issue1, pp.61-77, doi:10.1093/gji/ggs129, April 2013.

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

April 2012 - March 2013

Zhuang, J., Harte, D., Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S. (2012). Basic models of seismicity: temporal models, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-79905851, August 2012.

Zhuang, J. (2012). Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering, Research in Geophysics, Vol.2, No.1, doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e8, July 2012.

Peng, Y., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J. and Shi, J. (2012). An approach to detect the abnormal seismicity increase in Southwestern China triggered co-seismically by 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.189, pp.1734-1740, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05456.x, June 2012.

Zhuang, J.-C. and Jiang, C.-S. (2012). Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Cosultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score (in Chinese with English abstract), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.55, pp.1695-1709, doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.05.026, May 2012.

Console, R., Yamaoka, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012). Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts, International Journal of Geophysics, Vol.2012, 217923. doi:10.1155/2012/217923. Editorial of special issue: Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Console, R., Yamaoka, K. and Zhuang, J. (editors), March 2013.

van Stiphout, T., Zhuang, J. and Marsan, D. (2012). Seismicity declustering, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-52382934.

 

Ogata, Y. (2013). Retrospective analysis of the long-term prediction of seismic activities that are induced by the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.89, pp.278-281, March 2013.

Ogata, Y. (2013). Seismicity anomaly that preceded the 2004 Sumatra earthquake M9.1 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.89, pp.432-440, March 2013.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2012). Prospective foreshock forecast experiment during the last 17 years, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.191, Issue3, pp.1237-1244, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05645.x, December 2012.

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y. (2012). Statistical analysis for the change of seismicity after 25 March 1998 the Balleny earthquake (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.34, No.9, pp.529-545, September 2012.

Ogata, Y. (2012). Long- and intermediate space-time forecast in Japanese Islands induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.88, pp.35-39, September 2012.

Ogata, Y. (2012). Long-term probability forecast of the regional seismicity that was induced by the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.88, pp.92-99, September 2012.

Ogata, Y. (2012). Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.88, pp.100-103, September 2012.

 

Toda, S. (2013). Current issues and a prospective view to the next step for long-term crustal earthquake forecast in Japan (in Japanese with English abstract), Journal of the Geological Society of Japan,Vol.119, No.2, pp.105-123, doi:10.5575/geosoc.2013.0001, February 2013.

Hanks, T.C., Beroza, G.C. and Toda, S. (2012). Have recent earthquakes exposed flaws in or misunderstandings of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.83, No.5, pp.759-764, doi:10.1785/0220120043, October 2012.

Tsutsumi, H. and Toda, S. (2012). Surface rupture associated with the April 11, 2011 Fukushima-ken Hamadori earthquake and paleoseismic history of the causative fault (in Japanese with English abstract), Journal of the Geological Society of Japan, Vol.118, No.9, pp.559-570, http://dx.doi.org/10.5575/geosoc.2012.0057, September 2012.

Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Beroza, G.C. and Marsan, D. (2012). Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows, Nature Geoscience, Vol.5, No.6, pp.410-413, doi:10.1038/ngeo1465, June 2012.

 

Iwata, T. (2012). Quantitative analysis of the daily variation of earthquake detection capability (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.34, No.9, pp.504-508, September 2012.

Iwata, T. (2012). Earthquake triggering caused by the external oscillation of stress/strain changes, CORSSA: the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-65828518.

 

Terakawa, T., Hashimoto, C. and Matsu'ura, M. (2013). Changes in seismic activity following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake: Effects of pore fluid pressure, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.365, pp.17-24, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.01.017, March 2013.

Matsu乫ura, M. (2012). The 2011 mega-thrust earthquake off northeast Japan and multiple earthquake cycles in subduction zones (in Japanese with English abstract), Journal of Geological Society of Japan, Vol.118, No.5, pp.313-322, doi:10.5575/geosoc.2012.0028, May 2012.

 

Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T.H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012). Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.191, Issue2, pp.653-658, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x.

 

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2012). Maximum pseudo-likelihood analyses of clustering point processes and some properties of Palm intensity (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Vol.60, No.1, pp.37-55, June 2012.

 

愢柧: 愢柧: 愢柧: BD14996_

 

April 2011 - March 2012

Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (2012). Scoring annual eaarthquake predictions in China, Tectonophysics, Vol.524-525, pp.155-164, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.12.033, February 2012.

Zechar, J. D., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S., Zhuang, J., and the CORSSA working group, (2011). Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.82, No.5, pp.686-690, doi:10.1785/gssrl.82.5.686, October 2011.

Zhang, L.-P. and Zhuang, J. (2011). An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks, Tectonophysics, Vol.509, pp.191-197, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.06.008, August 2011.

Zhuang, J., Werner, M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., and Zhou, S. (2011). Basic models of seismicity: spatiotemporal models, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-07487583. Available at http://www.corssa.org, July 2011.

Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J. (2011). Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.38, Issue9, L09310, doi:10.1029/2011GL047165, May 2011.

Zhuang, J. (2011). Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, pp.207-216, doi:10.5047/eps.2010.12.010, March 2011. 

 

Ogata, Y. (2012). Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity and triggered activity near Matsumoto (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.87, pp.546-553, March 2012.

Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist, E.L. (2012). Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.188, Issue3, pp.1425-1440, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x, March 2012.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake of M6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.186, Issue1, pp.331-348, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05033.x, January 2012.
Erratum, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.188, Issue3, pp.1454, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x/abstract, March 2012.

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Statistical Analysis Of Seismicity In A Wide Region Around The 1998 Mw 8.1 Balleny Islands Earthquake In The Antarctic Plate, Polar Science, Vol.5, pp.421-431, doi:10.1016/j.polar.2011.08.002, December 2011.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational probability foreshock forecasts up until Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.86, pp.123-125, November 2011.

Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2011). Tohoku earthquake: aftershock activity and triggered activities in the eastern Honshu area (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.86, pp.126-133, November 2011.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Preshock activity and quiescence for long-term seismic activity in and around Japan (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.86, pp.134-141, November 2011.

 

Toda, S., Lin, J. and Stein, R.S. (2011). Using the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure, Earth Planets Space, Vol. 63, pp.725-730, doi:10.5047/eps.2011.05.010, September 2011.

Toda, S., Stein, R. S. and Lin, J. (2011). Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake and its interpretation by Coulomb stress transfer, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.38, Issue7, L00G03, doi:10.1029/2011GL047834, April 2011.

Toda, S. and Enescu, B.(2011). Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast, Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, pp.171-185, doi:10.5047/dps.2011.01.004, March 2011.

 

Iwata, T. (2012). Revisiting the global detection capability of earthquakes during the period immediately after a large earthquake: considering the influence of intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes, Research in Geophysics, Vol.2, No.1, pp.24-28, doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e4, March 2012.

Iwata, T. (2012). Earthquake triggering caused by the external oscillation of stress/strain changes, CORSSA: the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-65828518, March 2012.

 

Hashimoto, C., Noda, A. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2012). The Mw9.0 northeast Japan earthquake: total rupture of a basement asperity, Geophysical journal International, Vol. 189, pp. 1-5, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05368.x, February 2012.

Shikakura, Y., Fukahata, Y. and Matsu乫ura, M. (2012). Spatial relationship between topography and rock uplift patterns in asymmetric mountain ranges based on a stream erosion model, Geomorphology, Vol.138, pp.162-170, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.09.002, February 2012.

 

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y., Komaki, F. and Toda, S. (2011). Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.116, B04315, doi:10.1029/2010JB007917, April 2011.

 

Llenos, A.L. and McGuire, J.J. (2011). Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.116, B06305, doi:10.1029/2010JB007537, June 2011.