



Published
PapersF Updated on 6 December 2017 ϊ{κ April 2017  March 2018 NEW! Opris,
A., Enescu, B., Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2018). Triggering and decay
characteristics of dynamically activated seismicity in Southwest Japan, Geophysical Journal International,
Vol.212, Issue2, pp.1010–1021, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx456, February
2018. Shcherbakov,
R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Constraining the magnitude of the
largest event in a foreshock – mainshock – aftershock sequence, Geophysical
Journal International, doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407. (Published 22 September 2017)
Jiang,
C., Zhuang, J., Wu, Z. and Bi, J. (2017). Application and comparison of two
shortterm probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan,
Ms7.0 earthquake (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.60, No.10,
pp.41324144, doi:10.6038/cjg20171038, October 2017. Yang,
H., Liu, Y., Wei, M., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2017). Induced earthquakes in
the development of unconventional energy resources, SCIENCE CHINA Earth
Sciences, Vol.60, No.9, pp.16321644, doi:10.1007/s1143001790630,
September 2017. Wang,
T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). Hidden Markov modelling of
sparse time series from nonvolcanic tremor observations, Journal of the
Royal Statistical Society:Series C(Applied Statistics), Vol.66, Issue4,
pp.691–715, doi:10.1111/rssc.12194, August 2017. (First published 10 November
2016) Guo,
Y., Zhuang, J., Hirata, N. and Zhou, S. (2017). Heterogeneity of direct
aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture, Journal of Geophysical
Research: Solid Earth, Vol.122, Issue7, pp.52885305,
doi:10.1002/2017JB014064, July 2017. Wang,
D., Kawakatsu H., Zhuang, J., Mori, J., Maeda, T., Tsuruoka, H. and Zhao, X.
(2017). Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large
earthquakes using backprojection and Pwave amplitude, Geophysical Research
Letters, Vol.44, Issue11, pp.54475456, doi:10.1002/2017GL073801, June 2017. Ogata,
Y. (2017). Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research,
Seismological Research Letters, Vol.88, No.4, pp.11171126,
doi:10.1785/0220170006, July/August 2017. Ogata,
Y. (2016). Statistics of Earthquake Activity: Models and Methods for
Earthquake Predictability Studies, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary
Sciences, Vol.45, pp.497527, doi:10.1146/annurevearth063016015918.
(Volume publication date June 2017) April 2016  March 2017 Zhuang,
J., Ogata, Y. and Wang, T. (2017). Data completeness of the Kumamoto
earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of
the ETAS parameters, Earth, Planets and
Space, Vol.69, Article36, doi:10.1186/s4062301706146, February 2017.
(Open Access) Zhuang,
J., Wang, D. and Matsu'ura, M. (2016). Features of earthquake source process
simulated by VereJones' branching crack model, Bulletin of the Seismological
Society of America, Vol.106, No.4, pp.18321839, doi:10.1785/0120150337, August
2016. Luo, J.
and Zhuang, J. (2016). Three regimes of the distribution of the largest event
in the critical ETAS model, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,
Vol.106, Issue3, pp.13641369, doi:10.1785/0120150324, June 2016. Huang,
Y., Zhou, S. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Numerical tests on catalogbased methods
to estimate magnitude of completeness (in Chinese with English abstract), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.59,
No.4, pp.13501358, doi:10.6038/cjg20160416, April 2016. Chu, A.
and Zhuang, J. (2016). Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the
Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area,
and Surface Displacement. In Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake Assessment, edited by Y.G. Li.,
pp.219237, ISBN13: 9783110432527, February 2016. Zakharova,
O., Hainzl, S., Lange, D. and Enescu, B. (2017). Spatial Variations of
Aftershock Parameters and their Relation to Geodetic Slip Models for the 2010
Mw8.8 Maule and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohokuoki Earthquakes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.174, Issue1, pp.77102,
doi:10.1007/s0002401614087, January 2017. Enescu,
B., Shimojo, K., Opris, A, and Yagi, Y. (2016). Remote triggering of
seismicity at Japanese volcanoes following the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake,
Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68,
Article165, doi:10.1186/s4062301605395, October 2016. (Open Access) Kasahara,
A., Yagi, Y. and Enescu, B. (2016). etas_solve: A robust program to estimate
the ETAS model parameters, Seismological
Research Letters, Vol.87, No.5, pp.11431149, doi:10.1785/0220150240,
September 2016. (Open Access) Yagi,
Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B., Kasahara, A., Miyakawa, A. and OtsuboAM.
(2016). Rupture process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in relation to the
thermal structure around Aso volcano, Earth,
Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article118, doi:10.1186/s4062301604923,
July 2016. (Open Access) Tormann,
T., Wiemer, S., Enescu, B. and Woessner, J. (2016). Normalized rupture
potential for small and large earthquakes along the Pacific Plate off Japan, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.43,
pp.74687477, doi:10.1002/2016GL069309, July 2016. (Open Access) Reverso,
T., Marsan, D., Helmstetter, A. and Enescu, B. (2016). Background seismicity
in Boso Peninsula, Japan: Longterm acceleration, and relationship with slow
slip events, Geophysical Research Letters, Issue11, pp.56715679,
doi:10.1002/2016GL068524, June 2016. Ishibe,
T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2017). Testing the Coulomb stress
triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes, Geoscience Letters, Vol.4, No.5,
doi:10.1186/s405620170070y, March 2017. (Open Access) Ogata,
Y. (2017). On spontaneous seismicity rate in Japan inland (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Vol.97, pp.912, March 2017. Ogata,
Y., Tsuruoka, H., Omi, T., Nomura, S., Kumazawa, T. and Aihara, K. (2017).
Seismic activity before and after the 2016 Central Tottori Prefecture
earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.97, pp.368374,
March 2017. Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y., Kato, A. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical analysis of the
swarm activity induced by the 2016 April earthquake of M6.1 at the southeast
off the coast of the Mie Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Vol.96, pp.304310, September 2016. Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of seismicity
in Kyushu District before the occurrence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes of
M6.5 and M7.3 (in Japanese), Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.642651,
September 2016. Nomura,
S. and Ogata, Y. (2016). Foreshock forecast probabilities of the M7.3
Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Vol.96, pp.652657, September 2016. Ogata,
Y. (2016). Provisional calculations of the probability forecast of the Kumamoto
M7.3 earthquake (in Japanese), Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96,
pp.658661, September 2016. Omi,
T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Aihara, K. (2016). Probability aftershock
forecasting of the M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto earthquakes of 2016 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.662667, September 2016. Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Background
rates of swarm earthquakes that are synchronized with volumetric strain
changes, Earth and Planetary Science
Letters, Vol.442, pp.5160, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.049, May 2016.
(Available online: March 2016) Kato,
A., Fukuda, J., Kumazawa, T. and Nakagawa, S. (2016). Accelerated nucleation
of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake, Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group), Vol.6,
ArticleNo.24792, doi:10.1038/srep24792, April 2016. Han,
P., Hattori, K., Zhuang, J., Chen, CH., Liu, JY. and Yoshida S. (2016).
Evaluation of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena in Kakioka, Japan by using
Molchan's error diagram, Geophysical
Journal International, Vol.208, Issue1, pp.482490,
doi:10.1093/gji/ggw404, November, 2016. Han,
P., Hattori, K., Huang, Q., Hirooka, S. and Yoshino, C. (2016). Spatiotemporal
characteristics of the geomagnetic diurnal variation anomalies prior to the
2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the possible coupling of multiple
preearthquake phenomena, Journal of
Asian Earth Sciences, Vol.129, pp.1321,
doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.011, November 2016. Nomura,
S. Ogata, Y., Uchida, N. and Matsufura, M. (2016). Spatiotemporal variations
of interplate slip rates in northeast Japan inverted from recurrence
intervals of repeating earthquakes, Geophysical Journal International,
Vol.208, Issue1, pp.468481, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw395, October 2016. Omi,
T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K. (2016).
Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using realtime seismicity data in
Japan, Bulletin of the Seismological
Society of America, Vol.106, No.6, pp.24502458, doi:10.1785/0120160100,
December 2016. April 2015  March 2016 Huang,
Q., Gestenberger, M. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Current Challenges in Statistical
Seismology, Pure and Applied Geophysics,
Vol.173, Issue1, pp.13, doi:10.1007/s0002401512227, January 2016. Chen,
S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J. (2015). Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and
Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its
Analytic Signal in Western China, Pure
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J. (2015). Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes, Spatial Statistics, Vol.14, PartB,
pp.166178, doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.07.009, November 2015. Guo,
Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2015). A hypocentral version of the space–time
ETAS model, Geophysical Journal International,
Vol.203, Issue1, pp.366372, doi:10.1093/gji/ggv319, October 2015. Zhuang,
J. and Ogata, Y. (2015).
Evaluation Methods of Earthquake Forecasts (in Japanese with English
abstracts), Proceedings of the
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.2944, June 2015. Guo,
Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2015). An improved spacetime ETAS model for
inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid
Earth, Vol.120, Issue5, pp.3309–3323, doi:10.1002/2015JB011979, May 2015.
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T., Enescu, B., Woessner, J. and Wiemer, S. (2016). Reply to 'Tohoku rupture
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Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B. and Fukahata, Y. (2015). Unusual lowangle normal
fault earthquakes after the 2011 Tohokuoki megathrust earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.67,
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B., Marsan, D., Lengline, O., Enescu, B., Bouchon, M. and Got, J.L. (2015).
Changes in seismicity and stress loading on subduction faults in the Kanto
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C., Hainzl, S., Wang, L., Enescu, B. amd Roth, F. (2015). Aftershock
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case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article44,
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T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting
changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Vol.94, pp.136144, September 2015. Ogata,
Y. (2015). On the Special Topic gStatistical Seismology Research on
Earthquake Predictability (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.12, June 2015. Ogata,
Y. (2015). Stochastic Prediction of Earthquakes  A Strategy for the
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2015. Iwata,
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model due to the effect of secondary aftershocks: Implications from an
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January 2016. Iwata,
T. and Kanao, M. (2015). The annual variation in teleseismic detection
capability at Syowa Station, Antarctica: a statistical analysis considering
the effect of air temperature (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.37, No.9, pp.400406, September 2015. Iwata,
T. (2015). Earthquake Forecasting Based on the Correlation between Earth
Tides and Earthquake Occurrences (in Japanese with English abstracts), Proceedings of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.129144, June 2015. Kumazawa,
T. (2015). Modeling Seismicity Anomalies (in Japanese with English
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T., Higuchi, H., Miyauchi, T., Endo, K., Tsumura, N., Ito, T., Noda, A. and
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Y. and Matsufura, M. (2016). Deformation of islandarc lithosphere due to
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M. and Noda, A. (2015). Inversion Analysis of GPS Data and Forecast of
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Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.105127, June 2015. Nomura,
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J.D. and Zhuang, J. (2014). A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare
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October 2014. Han,
P., Hattori K., Hirokawa, M., Zhuang, J., Chen, C.H., Febriani, F.,
Yamaguchi, H., Yoshino, C., Liu, J.Y. and Yoshida, S. (2014). Statistical
analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 20012010,
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2014. Zoeller,
G., Holschneider, M., Hainzl, S. and Zhuang, J. (2014). The largest expected
earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, Vol.104, No.2, pp.769779, doi:10.1785/0120130103, April 2014. Enescu,
B., Shibutani, T., Ito, K., Ohmi, S and Wada, H. (2015). Seismic activity and
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T., Enescu, B., Woessner, J. and Wiemer, S. (2015). Randomness of megathrust
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Coulomb stress uncertainties in physicsbased aftershock models, Journal of Geophysical Reseach,
Vol.119, Issue10, pp.78467864, doi:10.1002/2014JB011183, October 2014. Yagi,
Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B., Hirano, S., Yamagami, Y., Endo, S. and Komoro,
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with the foreshock activity, Geophysical Research Letters,
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Data: A Bayesian Modelling of Earthquake Detection Capability, Australian & New Zealand Journal of
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T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Estimating the ETAS model
from an early aftershock sequence, Geophysical
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