説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: arrows_8-04  English

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: catfish_angry

リ ス ク 解 析 戦 略 研 究 セ ン タ ー

地震予測解析プロジェクト

Statsei 

角丸四角形: トップページ

角丸四角形: 構 成 員

角丸四角形: 地震グループ
ニュース, 成果

角丸四角形: 論文発表

角丸四角形: 学会等発表
(含予定)

角丸四角形: 統計地震学
セミナー

角丸四角形: 地震予知連絡会 報告

角丸四角形: ソフトウェア
データベース

角丸四角形: ポスター等

角丸四角形: 研究紹介

角丸四角形: 社会への貢献

角丸四角形: 外部評価

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: catfish

 

 

 

 

 

尾形良彦 トップページ

 

Ogata English Page

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: J_1-A

統数研のページ

 

 

  論文発表 Updated on 6 December 2017        説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: arrows_8-04  English 

 


 

2017 (H29) 年度

NEW!

Opris, A., Enescu, B., Yagi, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2018). Triggering and decay characteristics of dynamically activated seismicity in Southwest Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.212, Issue2, pp.1010–1021, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx456, February 2018.

Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock – mainshock – aftershock sequence, Geophysical Journal International, doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407. (Published 22 September 2017)

 

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

Jiang, C., Zhuang, J., Wu, Z. and Bi, J. (2017). Application and comparison of two short-term probabilistic forecasting models for the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan, Ms7.0 earthquake (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.60, No.10, pp.4132-4144, doi:10.6038/cjg20171038, October 2017.

Yang, H., Liu, Y., Wei, M., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2017). Induced earthquakes in the development of unconventional energy resources, SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, Vol.60, No.9, pp.1632-1644, doi:10.1007/s11430-017-9063-0, September 2017.

Wang, T., Zhuang, J., Obara, K. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). Hidden Markov modelling of sparse time series from non-volcanic tremor observations, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series C(Applied Statistics), Vol.66, Issue4, pp.691–715, doi:10.1111/rssc.12194, August 2017. (First published 10 November 2016)

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J., Hirata, N. and Zhou, S. (2017). Heterogeneity of direct aftershock productivity of the main shock rupture, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.122, Issue7, pp.5288-5305, doi:10.1002/2017JB014064, July 2017.

Wang, D., Kawakatsu H., Zhuang, J., Mori, J., Maeda, T., Tsuruoka, H. and Zhao, X. (2017). Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large earthquakes using back-projection and P-wave amplitude, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.44, Issue11, pp.5447-5456, doi:10.1002/2017GL073801, June 2017.

 

Ogata, Y. (2017). Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.88, No.4, pp.1117-1126, doi:10.1785/0220170006, July/August 2017.

Ogata, Y. (2016). Statistics of Earthquake Activity: Models and Methods for Earthquake Predictability Studies, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol.45, pp.497-527, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-015918. (Volume publication date June 2017)

 

 

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

2016 (H28) 年度

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Wang, T. (2017). Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.69, Article36, doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0614-6, February 2017. (Open Access)

Zhuang, J., Wang, D. and Matsu'ura, M. (2016). Features of earthquake source process simulated by Vere-Jones' branching crack model, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, No.4, pp.1832-1839, doi:10.1785/0120150337, August 2016.

Luo, J. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Three regimes of the distribution of the largest event in the critical ETAS model, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, Issue3, pp.1364-1369, doi:10.1785/0120150324, June 2016.

Huang, Y., Zhou, S. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Numerical tests on catalog-based methods to estimate magnitude of completeness (in Chinese with English abstract), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.59, No.4, pp.1350-1358, doi:10.6038/cjg20160416, April 2016.

Chu, A. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Multiple Linear Regression Analyses on the Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement. In Rock Anisotropy, Fracture and Earthquake Assessment, edited by Y.-G. Li., pp.219-237, ISBN-13: 978-3110432527, February 2016.

 

Zakharova, O., Hainzl, S., Lange, D. and Enescu, B. (2017). Spatial Variations of Aftershock Parameters and their Relation to Geodetic Slip Models for the 2010 Mw8.8 Maule and the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki Earthquakes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.174, Issue1, pp.77-102, doi:10.1007/s00024-016-1408-7, January 2017.

Enescu, B., Shimojo, K., Opris, A, and Yagi, Y. (2016). Remote triggering of seismicity at Japanese volcanoes following the 2016 M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article165, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0539-5, October 2016. (Open Access)

Kasahara, A., Yagi, Y. and Enescu, B. (2016). etas_solve: A robust program to estimate the ETAS model parameters, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.87, No.5, pp.1143-1149, doi:10.1785/0220150240, September 2016. (Open Access)

Yagi, Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B., Kasahara, A., Miyakawa, A. and OtsuboM. (2016). Rupture process of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in relation to the thermal structure around Aso volcano, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article118, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0492-3, July 2016. (Open Access)

Tormann, T., Wiemer, S., Enescu, B. and Woessner, J. (2016). Normalized rupture potential for small and large earthquakes along the Pacific Plate off Japan, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.43, pp.7468-7477, doi:10.1002/2016GL069309, July 2016. (Open Access)

Reverso, T., Marsan, D., Helmstetter, A. and Enescu, B. (2016). Background seismicity in Boso Peninsula, Japan: Long-term acceleration, and relationship with slow slip events, Geophysical Research Letters, Issue11, pp.5671-5679, doi:10.1002/2016GL068524, June 2016.

 

Ishibe, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2017). Testing the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes, Geoscience Letters, Vol.4, No.5, doi:10.1186/s40562-017-0070-y, March 2017. (Open Access)

尾形良彦 (2017). 日本列島内陸部の常時地震活動度について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 97, pp.9-12, 20173.

尾形良彦,鶴岡 弘,近江崇宏,野村俊一,熊沢貴雄,合原一幸 (2017). 2016 年鳥取県中部の地震(M6.6)前後の活動について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 97, pp.368-374, 20173.

熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 加藤愛太郎,鶴岡弘 (2016). 201641日三重県南東沖の地震(M6.1)に続く群発地震活動の統計解析, 地震予知連絡会会報, 96, pp.304-310, 20169.

熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡弘 (2016). 2016年熊本地震前の九州地域の地震活動および余震活動の統計的モニタリング, 地震予知連絡会会報, 96, pp.642-651, 20169.

野村俊一, 尾形良彦 (2016). 2016年熊本地震(M7.3)の前震確率予測について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 96, pp.652-657, 20169.

尾形良彦 (2016). 熊本M7.3 地震の確率予測の試算, 地震予知連絡会会報, 96, pp.658-661, 20169.

近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 鶴岡弘, 合原一幸 (2016). 2016年熊本地震の余震の確率予測, 地震予知連絡会会報, 96, pp.662-667, 20169.

 

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Background rates of swarm earthquakes that are synchronized with volumetric strain changes, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.442, pp.51-60, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.049, May 2016. (Available online: March 2016)

Kato, A., Fukuda, J., Kumazawa, T. and Nakagawa, S. (2016). Accelerated nucleation of the 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.2 Earthquake, Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group), Vol.6, ArticleNo.24792, doi:10.1038/srep24792, April 2016.

 

Han, P., Hattori, K., Zhuang, J., Chen, C-H., Liu, J-Y. and Yoshida S. (2016). Evaluation of ULF seismo-magnetic phenomena in Kakioka, Japan by using Molchan's error diagram, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.208, Issue1, pp.482-490, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw404, November, 2016.

Han, P., Hattori, K., Huang, Q., Hirooka, S. and Yoshino, C. (2016). Spatiotemporal characteristics of the geomagnetic diurnal variation anomalies prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) and the possible coupling of multiple pre-earthquake phenomena, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, Vol.129, pp.13-21,        doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.07.011, November 2016.

 

Nomura, S. Ogata, Y., Uchida, N. and Matsu’ura, M. (2016). Spatiotemporal variations of interplate slip rates in northeast Japan inverted from recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.208, Issue1, pp.468-481, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw395, October 2016.

 

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K. (2016). Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using real-time seismicity data in Japan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, No.6, pp.2450-2458, doi:10.1785/0120160100, December 2016.

 

 

【図書】

野村俊一 (2016). カルマンフィルタ ―Rを使った時系列予測と状態空間モデル―, 共立出版, 168ページ, 統計学One Point 2 , 20169, ISBN: 978-4-320-11253-7.

 

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

2015 (H27) 年度

Huang, Q., Gestenberger, M. and Zhuang, J. (2016). Current Challenges in Statistical Seismology, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.173, Issue1, pp.1-3, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1222-7, January 2016.

Chen, S., Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J. (2015). Statistical Evaluation of Efficiency and Possibility of Earthquake Predictions with Gravity Field Variation and its Analytic Signal in Western China, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.173, Issue1, pp.305-319, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1114-x, January 2016.

Zhuang, J. (2015). Weighted likelihood estimators for point processes, Spatial Statistics, Vol.14, PartB, pp.166-178, doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.07.009, November 2015.

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2015). A hypocentral version of the space–time ETAS model, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.203, Issue1, pp.366-372, doi:10.1093/gji/ggv319, October 2015.

建倉, 尾形良彦 (2015). 地震予測の評価法について, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.29-44, 20156.

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhou, S. (2015). An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue5, pp.3309–3323, doi:10.1002/2015JB011979, May 2015.

 

Tormann, T., Enescu, B., Woessner, J. and Wiemer, S. (2016). Reply to 'Tohoku rupture reloaded?', Nature Geoscience, Vol.9, pp.183-185, doi:10.1038/ngeo2650, March 2016.

Yagi, Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B. and Fukahata, Y. (2015). Unusual low-angle normal fault earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.67, Article100, doi:10.1186/s40623-015-0271-6, June 2015.

Gardonio, B., Marsan, D., Lengline, O., Enescu, B., Bouchon, M. and Got, J.-L. (2015). Changes in seismicity and stress loading on subduction faults in the Kanto region, Japan, 2011-2014, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2616-2626, doi:10.1002/2014JB011798, April 2015.

Cattania, C., Hainzl, S., Wang, L., Enescu, B. amd Roth, F. (2015). Aftershock triggering by postseismic stresses: A study based on Coulomb rate-and-state models, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2388-2407, doi:10.1002/2014JB011500, April 2015.

 

Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of aftershock sequences: a case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article44, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0410-8, March 2016. Open Access

尾形良彦 (2015). 統計モデルによる地震活動異常のモニタリング, 地震予知連絡会会報, 94, pp.412-423, 20159.

熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 木村一洋, 前田憲二, 小林昭夫 (2015). 伊豆東部の群発地震活動の推移の短期予測について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 94,
pp.136-144, 2015
9.

尾形良彦 (2015). 「特集 地震予測と統計モデル」について, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.1-2, 20156.

尾形良彦 (2015). 地震の確率予測の研究−その展望, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.3-27, 20156.

 

Iwata, T. (2016). A variety of aftershock decays in the rate- and state-friction model due to the effect of secondary aftershocks: Implications from an analysis of real aftershock sequences, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.173, No.1, pp.21-33, doi:10.1007/s00024-015-1151-5, January 2016.

岩田貴樹, 金尾政紀 (2015). 南極・昭和基地における遠地地震の検知能力の年周変化−気温による影響を考慮した統計的解析−, 月刊地球, Vol.37, No.9, pp.400-406, 20159 .

岩田貴樹 (2015). 地球潮汐と地震活動との相関を用いた地震活動予測, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.129-144, 20156.

 

熊澤貴雄 (2015). 地震活動の異常性とモデリング, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.45-64, 20156.

 

Sato, T., Higuchi, H., Miyauchi, T., Endo, K., Tsumura, N., Ito, T., Noda, A. and Matsu’ura, M. (2016). The source model and recurrence interval of Genroku-type earthquakes estimated from paleo-shoreline data, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article17, doi:10.1186/s40623-016-0395-3, February 2016.

Fukahata, Y. and Matsu’ura, M. (2016). Deformation of island-arc lithosphere due to steady plate subduction, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.204, Issue2, pp.825-840, doi:10.1093/gji/ggv482, February 2016.

松浦充宏, 野田朱美 (2015). GPSデータの逆解析と地震の発生予測, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.105-127, 20156.

 

野村俊一 (2015). 活断層で繰り返される地震の点過程モデルとその長期確率予測, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.83-104, 20156.

 

近江崇宏 (2015). 本震直後からの余震活動のリアルタイム短期予測と中期予測, 統計数理, 63, 1, pp.65-81, 20156.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2015). Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2561–2578, doi:10.1002/2014JB011456, April 2015.

 

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

2014 (H26) 年度

Zhuang, J. and Touati, S. (2015). Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogues, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-43806322, March 2015. (available at http://www.corssa.org)

Murru, M., Zhuang, J., Console, R. and Falcone, G. (2014). Short-term earthquake forecasting experiment before and during the L'Aquila (central Italy) seismic sequence of April 2009, Annual of Geophysics, Vol.57, No.6, doi:10.4401/ag-6583, November 2014.

Zechar, J.D. and Zhuang, J. (2014). A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.199, Issue1, pp.60-68, doi:10.1093/gji/ggu137, October 2014.

Han, P., Hattori K., Hirokawa, M., Zhuang, J., Chen, C.-H., Febriani, F., Yamaguchi, H., Yoshino, C., Liu, J.-Y. and Yoshida, S. (2014). Statistical analysis of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Japan, during 2001-2010, Journal of Geophysical Reseach: Space Physics, Vol.119, Issue6, pp.4998-5011, doi:10.1002/2014JA019789, June 2014.

Zoeller, G., Holschneider, M., Hainzl, S. and Zhuang, J. (2014). The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.104, No.2, pp.769-779, doi:10.1785/0120130103, April 2014.

 

Enescu, B., Shibutani, T., Ito, K., Ohmi, S and Wada, H. (2015). Seismic activity and one-dimensional velocity structure along the Atotsugawa fault, from precise hypocenter relocations, Earth Evolution Sciences, Vol. 9, pp.5-14, March 2015.

Tormann, T., Enescu, B., Woessner, J. and Wiemer, S. (2015). Randomness of megathrust earthquakes implied by rapid stress recovery after the Japan earthquake, Nature Geoscience, Vol.8, pp.152-158, doi:10.1038/ngeo2343, February 2015.

Shimojo, K., Enescu, B., Yagi, Y. and Takeda, T. (2014). Fluid-driven seismicity activation in northern Nagano region after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, Issue21, pp.7524-7531, doi:10.1002/2014GL061763, November 2014.

Cattania, C., Hainzl, S., Wang, L., Roth, F. and Enescu, B. (2014). Propagation of Coulomb stress uncertainties in physics-based aftershock models, Journal of Geophysical Reseach, Vol.119, Issue10, pp.7846-7864, doi:10.1002/2014JB011183, October 2014.

Yagi, Y., Okuwaki, R., Enescu, B., Hirano, S., Yamagami, Y., Endo, S. and Komoro, T. (2014). Rupture process of the 2014 Iquique Chile Earthquake in relation with the foreshock activity, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, Issue12, pp.4201-4206, doi:10.1002/2014GL060274, June 2014.

Sawazaki, K. and Enescu, B. (2014). Imaging the high-frequency energy radiation process of a main shock and its early aftershock sequence: The case of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan, Journal of Geophysical Reseach, Vol.119, Issue6, pp.4729-4746, doi:10.1002/2013JB010539, June 2014.

 

尾形良彦 (2015). 常時地震活動 ・余震 ・誘発地震の予測能力と評価, 地震予知連絡会会報, 93, pp.415-426, 20153.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2014). Comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock forecasting in observed and simulated earthquake catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.119, Issue11, pp.8457-8477, doi:10.1002/2014JB011250, November 2014.

近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 平田祥人, 合原一幸 (2014). ETASモデルによる余震の確率予測, 地震予知連絡会会報, 92, pp.386-389, 20149.

 

Iwata, T. and Kanao, M. (2015). A quantitative evaluation of the annual variation in teleseismic detection capability at Syowa Station, Antarctica, Polar Science, Vol.9, Issue1, pp.26-34, doi:10.1016/j.polar.2014.10.002, March 2015.

Iwata, T. (2014). Decomposition of Seasonality and Long-term Trend in Seismological Data: A Bayesian Modelling of Earthquake Detection Capability, Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol.56, Issue3, pp.201-215, doi:10.1111/anzs.12079, September 2014.

 

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Nonstationary ETAS models for nonstandard earthquakes, Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol.8, No.3, pp.1825-1852, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS759, http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1414091236, September 2014.

 

Hashima, A., Fukahata, Y., Hashimoto, C. and Matsu’ura, M. (2014). Quasi-static strain and stress fields due to a moment tensor in elastic-viscoelastic layered half-space, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.171, Issue8, pp.1669-1693, doi:10.1007/s00024-013-0728-0, August 2014.

Hashimoto, C., Fukuyama, E. and Matsu’ura, M. (2014). Physics-based 3-D simulation of earthquake generation cycles at plate interfaces in subduction zones, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.171, Issue8, pp.1705-1728, doi:10.1007/s00024-013-0716-4, August 2014.

 

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Nadeau, R.M. (2014). Space-time model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of recurrence intervals on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.119, Issue9, pp.7092-7122, doi:10.1002/2013JB010558, September 2014.

 

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.66, No.4, pp.687-702, doi:10.1007/s10463-013-0431-z, August 2014.

 

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

2013 (H25) 年度

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2014). Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations: with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region, in Seismic Imaging, Fault Damage and Heal, edited by Li Y., Germany: De Gruyter together with China: Higher Education Press, pp.351-376, March 2014.

Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (2014). Possibility of the independence between the 2013 Lushan earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on Longmen Shan Fault, Sichuan, China, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.85, No.1, pp.60-67, doi:10.1785/0220130115, January 2014.

Zhuang, J., Werner, M.J. and Harte, D.S. (2013). Stability of earthquake clustering models: Criticality and branching ratios, Physical Review E, Vol.88, Issue6, 062109(1-13), doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062109, December 2013.

Jiang, C., Zhuang, J., Long, F. and Han, L. (2013). Statistical analysis of ETAS parameters in the early stage of the 2013 Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake sequence, Acta Seismologica Sinica, Vol.35, No.5, pp.661-669, doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2013.05.005 (In Chines with English abstract), November 2013.

Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Zhuang, J., Satake, K. and Hamdache, M. (2013). Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model, Geophysical Journal international, Vol.194, Issue3, pp.1823-1835, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt194, September 2013.

Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Satake, K., Zhuang, J. and Hamdache, M. (2013). Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering, Journal of Seismology, Vol.17, Issue3, pp.1041-1061, doi:10.1007/s10950-013-9371-6, July 2013.

Jiang, C.-S., Wu, Z.-L. and Zhuang, J.-C. (2013). ETAS model applied to the Earthquake-Sequence Association (ESA) problem: the Tangshan sequence, Chinese Journal Geophysics, Vol.56, Issue9, pp.2971-2981, doi:10.6038/cjg20130911, July 2013.

Wang, T., Zhuang, J, Kato, T. and Bebbington, M. (2013). Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.40, Issue11, pp.2631-2635, doi:10.1002/grl.50554, June 2013.

Jacobs, K.M., Smith, E.G.C., Savage, M.K. and Zhuang, J. (2013). Cumulative rate analysis (CURATE): a clustering algorithm for swarm dominated catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue2, pp.553-569, doi:10.1029/2012JB009222, February 2013.

 

Marsan, D., Reverso, T., Helmstetter, A. and Enescu, B. (2013). Slow slip and aseismic deformation episodes associated with the subducting Pacific plate offshore Japan, revealed by changes in seismicity, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue9, pp.4900-4909, doi:10.1002/jgrb.50323, September 2013.

Chao, K., Peng, Z., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Aiken, C., Enescu, B., Kao, H., Velasco, A.A., Obara, K. and Matsuzawa, T. (2013). A global search for triggered tremor following the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.103, No.2B, pp.1551-1571, doi:10.1785/0120120171, May 2013.

 

近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 平田祥人, 合原一幸 (2014). 本震直後の余震のリアルタイム確率予測, 地震予知連絡会会報, 91, pp.66-71, 20143.

尾形良彦 (2014). 東北地方太平洋沖地震のアウターライズ周辺での余震活動について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 91, pp.72-76, 20143.

尾形良彦 (2014). 2013 4 13 日淡路島の地震(M6.3)の余震活動(2011.4.13-2013.11.8, 地震予知連絡会会報, 91, pp.267-268, 20143.

尾形良彦 (2014). 大地震の確率予測と統計モデル, 地震予知連絡会会報, 91, pp.387-395, 20143.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, pp.850-857, doi:10.1002/2013GL058958, February 2014.

Ogata, Y. (2013). A prospect of earthquake prediction research, Statistical Science, Vol.28, No.4, pp.521-541, doi:10.1214/13-STS439, November 2013.

野村俊一, 内田直希, 尾形良彦 (2013).時空間非定常 BPTモデルと北日本太平洋沖沈み込み帯の小繰り返し地震(1993.7.15 - 2011.3.10)の解析例(1), 地震予知連絡会会報, 90, pp.49-53, 20139.

野村俊一, 内田直希, 尾形良彦 (2013).時空間非定常 BPTモデルによる北日本太平洋沖沈み込み帯の小繰り返し地震(1993.7.15 - 2011.3.10)の解析例(2)−特に主要地震の前と後の変化について−, 地震予知連絡会会報, 90, pp.54-57, 20139.

尾形良彦 (2013).東北地方太平洋沖地震の余震活動(2011.3.11 - 2013.2.2, 地震予知連絡会会報, 第90, pp.104-108, 20139.

尾形良彦 (2013).2013413日淡路島付近の地震(M6.3)までに至る兵庫県南部地震の余震活動などの異常変化ついて, 地震予知連絡会会報, 90巻、pp.352-35520139.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock, Scientific Reports(Nature Publishing Group), Vol.3, ArticleNo.2218, doi:10.1038/srep02218, July 2013.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. and Zhuang, J. (2013). Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.103, No.3, pp.1692-1708, doi:10.1785/0120120063, June 2013.

Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y. (2013). A non-stationary epidemic type aftershock sequence model for seismicity prior to the December 26, 2004 M9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands mega-earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, pp.616-629, doi:10.1002/jgrb.50068, February 2013.

 

Iwata, T. (2013). Estimation of completeness magnitude considering daily variation in earthquake detection capability, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.194, Issue3, pp.1909-1919, doi:10.1093/gji/ggt208, September 2013.

Iwata, T., Yamazaki, Y. and Kuninaka, H. (2013). Apparent transition in the human height distribution caused by age-dependent variation during puberty period, Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol.82, Issue8, http://dx.doi.org/10.7566/JPSJ.82.084803, August 2013.

岩田貴樹 (2013). 固体地球科学における大量データとその解析 −日本における近年の展開とその展望 , システム/制御/情報, Vol.57, No.4, pp.172-177, 20134.

Iwata, T. (2013). Daily variation in earthquake detection capability: a quantitative evaluation, in Earthquake Research and Analysis: New Advances in Seismology (ed. D'Amico. S.), InTech, Rijeka, Croatia, pp.167-184, doi:10.5772/54890, March 2013.

 

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue12, pp.6165-6182, doi:10.1002/2013JB010259, December 2013.

 

Noda, A., Hashimoto, C., Fukahata, Y. and Matsu’ura, M. (2013). Interseismic GPS strain data inversion to estimate slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces: application to the Kanto region, central Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.193, Issue1, pp.61-77, doi:10.1093/gji/ggs129, April 2013.

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

2012 (H24) 年度

Zhuang, J., Harte, D., Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S. (2012). Basic models of seismicity: temporal models, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-79905851, August 2012.

Zhuang, J. (2012). Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering, Research in Geophysics, Vol.2, No.1, doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e8, July 2012.

Peng, Y., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J. and Shi, J. (2012). An approach to detect the abnormal seismicity increase in Southwestern China triggered co-seismically by 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.189, pp.1734-1740, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05456.x, June 2012.

Zhuang, J.-C. and Jiang, C.-S. (2012). Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Cosultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score (in Chinese with English abstract), Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol.55, pp.1695-1709, doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.05.026, May 2012.

Console, R., Yamaoka, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012). Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts, International Journal of Geophysics, Vol.2012, 217923. doi:10.1155/2012/217923. Editorial of special issue: Implementation of Short- and Medium-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Console, R., Yamaoka, K. and Zhuang, J. (editors), March 2013.

van Stiphout, T., Zhuang, J. and Marsan, D. (2012). Seismicity declustering, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-52382934.

 

尾形良彦 (2013). 1995年兵庫県南部地震によって誘発された地震活動の遡及的予測と解析, 地震予知連絡会会報, 89, pp.278-281, 20133.

尾形良彦 (2013). 2004M9.1スマトラ地震に先行した地震発生率の変化について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 89, pp.432-440, 20133.

尾形良彦 (2013). ベイズ統計の最前線, 総合研究大学院大学葉山彙報, No.2, pp.17-38, (2011年度学術交流会講演の記録(2012/3/22-23)), 20132.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2012). Prospective foreshock forecast experiment during the last 17 years, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.191, Issue3, pp.1237-1244, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05645.x, December 2012. (published online 19 September 2012)

姫野哲人, 金尾政紀, 尾形良彦 (2012). 1998325日のバレニー地震後の地震活動度の変化に関する統計解析, 月刊地球, 総特集:青い地球と白い大陸の地震学-固体地球振動特性と不均質構造・ダイナミクスの解明(II), Vol.34, No.9, pp.529-545, 20129.

尾形良彦 (2012). 東北地方太平洋沖地震によって誘発された日本列島の中長期確率予測の時空間分布, 地震予知連絡会会報, 88, pp.35-39, 20129.

尾形良彦 (2012). 東北地方太平洋沖地震によって誘発された地域の地震活動の長期確率予測, 地震予知連絡会会報, 88, pp.92-99, 20129.

尾形良彦 (2012). 東北地方太平洋沖地震の余震活動, 地震予知連絡会会報, 88, pp.100-103, 20129.

 

遠田晋次 (2013). 内陸地震の長期評価に関する課題と新たな視点, 地質学雑誌, 119, 2, pp.105-123, 20132.

Hanks, T.C., Beroza, G.C. and Toda, S. (2012). Have recent earthquakes exposed flaws in or misunderstandings of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.83, pp.759-764, doi:10.1785/0220120043, October 2012.

浩之, 遠田晋次 (2012). 2011411日に発生した福島県浜通りの地震の地震断層と活動履歴, 地質学雑誌, 118, 9, pp.559-570, http://dx.doi.org/10.5575/geosoc.2012.0057, 20129.

Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Beroza, G.C. and Marsan, D. (2012). Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows, Nature Geoscience, Vol.5, No.6, pp.410-413, doi:10.1038/ngeo1465, June 2012.

【図書】

遠田晋次 (2013). 連鎖する大地震, 岩波書店, 118ページ, 201326, ISBN:978-4-00-029604-5 C0344.

 

岩田貴樹 (2012). 地震検知能力の日変化に関する定量的解析, 月刊地球, 総特集:青い地球と白い大陸の地震学-固体地球振動特性と不均質構造・ダイナミクスの解明(II), Vol.34, No.9, pp.504-508, 20129.

Iwata, T. (2012). Earthquake triggering caused by the external oscillation of stress/strain changes, CORSSA: the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-65828518.

 

Terakawa, T., Hashimoto, C. and Matsu'ura, M. (2013). Changes in seismic activity following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake: Effects of pore fluid pressure, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.365, pp.17-24, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.01.017, March 2013.

松浦充宏 (2012). 東北沖超巨大地震とプレート沈み込み帯のマルチ地震サイクル,地質学雑誌, 118, 5, pp.313-322, doi:10.5575/geosoc.2012.0028, 20125.

 

Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T.H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012). Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.191, Issue2, pp.653-658, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x, November 2012.

 

田中潮, 尾形良彦 (2012). クラスター点過程の疑似尤度解析とパルム型強度の性質, 統計数理, 60, 1, pp.37-55, 20126.

 

説明: 説明: 説明: 説明: BD14996_

 

2011 (H23) 年度

Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (2012). Scoring annual eaarthquake predictions in China, Tectonophysics, Vol.524-525, pp.155-164, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.12.033, February 2012.

Zechar, J. D., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S., Zhuang, J., and the CORSSA working group, (2011). Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.82, No.5, pp.686-690, doi:10.1785/gssrl.82.5.686, October 2011.

Zhang, L.-P. and Zhuang, J. (2011). An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks, Tectonophysics, Vol.509, pp.191-197, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2011.06.008, August 2011.

Zhuang, J., Werner, M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., and Zhou, S. (2011). Basic models of seismicity: spatiotemporal models, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-07487583. Available at http://www.corssa.org, July 2011.

Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J. (2011). Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.38, Issue9, L09310, doi:10.1029/2011GL047165, May 2011.

Zhuang, J. (2011). Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, pp.207-216, doi:10.5047/eps.2010.12.010, March 2011. 

 

尾形良彦 (2012). 東北地方太平洋沖地震の余震活動と松本付近の誘発地震活動, 地震予知連絡会会報, 87, pp.546-553, 20123.

Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist, E.L. (2012). Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.188, Issue3, pp.1425-1440, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x, March 2012.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake of M6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.186, Issue1, pp.331-348, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05033.x, January 2012.
Erratum, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.188, Issue3, pp.1454, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x/abstract, March 2012.

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Statistical Analysis Of Seismicity In A Wide Region Around The 1998 Mw 8.1 Balleny Islands Earthquake In The Antarctic Plate, Polar Science, Vol.5, pp.421-431, doi:10.1016/j.polar.2011.08.002, December 2011.

尾形良彦 (2011). 前震の確率予報の実施と評価: 東北地方太平洋沖地震までの15年間, 地震予知連絡会会報, 86, pp.123-125, 201111.

尾形良彦, 熊澤貴雄 (2011). 東北地方太平洋沖地震の余震と連鎖地震, 地震予知連絡会会報, 86, pp.126-133, 201111.

尾形良彦 (2011). 東北地方太平洋沖地震の前震活動と広域的静穏化について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 86, pp.134-141, 201111.

 

Toda, S., Lin, J. and Stein, R.S. (2011). Using the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure, Earth Planets Space, Vol. 63, pp.725-730, doi:10.5047/eps.2011.05.010, September 2011.

Toda, S., Stein, R. S. and Lin, J. (2011). Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake and its interpretation by Coulomb stress transfer, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.38, Issue7, L00G03, doi:10.1029/2011GL047834, April 2011.

Toda, S. and Enescu, B.(2011). Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast, Earth Planets Space, Vol.63, pp.171-185, doi:10.5047/dps.2011.01.004, March 2011.

 

Iwata, T. (2012). Revisiting the global detection capability of earthquakes during the period immediately after a large earthquake: considering the influence of intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes, Research in Geophysics, Vol.2, No.1, pp.24-28, doi:10.4081/rg.2012.e4, March 2012.

Iwata, T. (2012). Earthquake triggering caused by the external oscillation of stress/strain changes, CORSSA: the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-65828518, March 2012.

 

Hashimoto, C., Noda, A. and Matsu’ura, M. (2012). The Mw9.0 northeast Japan earthquake: total rupture of a basement asperity, Geophysical journal International, Vol. 189, pp. 1-5, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05368.x, February 2012.

Shikakura, Y., Fukahata, Y. and Matsu’ura, M. (2012). Spatial relationship between topography and rock uplift patterns in asymmetric mountain ranges based on a stream erosion model, Geomorphology, Vol.138, pp.162-170, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.09.002, February 2012.

 

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y., Komaki, F. and Toda, S. (2011). Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, B04315, doi:10.1029/2010JB007917, April 2011.

 

Llenos, A.L. and McGuire, J.J. (2011). Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.116, B06305, doi:10.1029/2010JB007537, June 2011.