Updated on 3 August 2022

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Home Page of Yosi Ogata

Welcome to my home page. I am an Emeritus Professor of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, and have been doing a number of various jobs for statistical and seismological communities.

Research interests:
Statistical seismology, Statistical analysis for point processes,
Spatial statistics, and Bayesian modelling and its applications.


*       NEW!  An invited lecture, “How to obtain probabilities and scenarios of a large earthquake chain”, presented at SSJ’s online special symposium, 23 July 2022. (July 2022)

*       Long-term forecast map of major inland earthquakes was introduced in the Nihon Keizai Newspaper (Nikkei e-edition). The full text is available only to subscribers, so please refer to the Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (9 March 2022)

*       An invited lecture: "Prediction and validation of short- medium-, and long-term earthquake probabilities using a hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) models, etc. " (PDF1) was presented in the key session series of "Trial Prediction Experiment (08) - Transition from trial to implementation" at the 233rd Conference of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (26 November 2021)

*       A tutorial lecture, "ETAS Model - Visualization of Earthquake Activity and Earthquake Prediction" at the press briefing of 49th Seismological Society of Japan on 3 June 2021. (July 2021)

*       Commemorative lecture : "The Evolution of ETAS Models and Modeling of Causal Inference" for the Seismological Society of Japan Award at the Seismological Society of  Japan Fall Meeting on 29 October, 2020. (November 2020)

*       Received the 2019 Seismological Society of Japan Award. (May 2020) (June 2020)

*       Organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (November 2019)

*       [EurekAlert!  news release]
     Analyzing seismic patterns to forecast the magnitude of the largest earthquake aftershocks 
(1 December 2019)

*       Lecture at Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology. (16-17 October 2019)
    High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models” (Invited talk) and the following a tutorial lecture:    
    Introduction to Statistical Seismology for Earthquake Prediction Research

*        Lecture at Institute of Theoretical and Application Geophysics, Peking University. (11-14 October 2019)
    High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models” (Invited talk), and the following two tutorial lectures:
Introduction to Statistical Seismology”, “Toward probability forecasting of large earthquakes 

*        [Publication in Nature Communications]
    Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zöller, G. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake,
    on Nature communications.
(6 September 2019)

*       Organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (August 2019)

*       Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 27 August 2019). (6 August 2019)

*       11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11) (The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Motohakone, Kanagawa, Japan, 18-21 August 2019).

*       [JPE Most viewed articles; Aug. 2018] The papers by Utsu et al. (1995) and Ogata (1983), published in Journal of Physics of the Earth, has been top 1st and 3rd most viewed articles in the release through J-stage since Apr. 30, 2009. (Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu’ura, R.S., 1995, Vol.43, Issue1, pp.1-33.) (Ogata, Y., 1983, Vol.31, Issue2, pp.115-124.)  (19 September 2018)

*       Tutorial lecture at the Peking University seismic activity analysis summer course.  (6 July 2017)  

*       Awarded for the most loyal StatSei meetings attendee. (February 2017)

*       Work on earthquake forecasting was televised in NHK Special on Sunday night (Sept. 11, 21:00 - )(TV Japan) (September 2016)

*       Special Issue on “Earthquake prediction and the statistical model” has been published in Proceedings of the Institute of the Statistical Mathematics, edited and written by our research group. (October 2015)

*       Number of citing papers of the ETAS point process model for seismic activity (Ogata, 1988, JASA) has exceeded 1,000. (September 2015)
Search “Ogata. Y.” in Google Scholar

*       Number of citing papers of the space-time ETAS point process model (Ogata, 1998, AISM) has exceeded 500. (September 2015)
Search “Ogata. Y.” in Google Scholar

*       ETAS model has been applied to global seismicity (Nature Geoscience). (August 2013)

*       The Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP), Japan, show policy to go with the the probability forecast. (August 2013)

*       We have proposed the method of real-time probability forecasting of aftershocks immediately after the main shock (joint with Aihara FIRST project at Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo). (July 2013)

*       The table providing the completeness magnitude in Japan (JMA catalogue) has been opened. image001  Softwares and DatabasePage (24 July 2013)

*       A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research (November 2012)

*       Nikkei Newspaper. (23 April 2012) (Japanese)

*       Sankei Newspaper. (11 March 2012) (Japanese)

*       International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes on the occasion of celebrating
Prof. Yosi Ogata's 40-year research career in statistical seismology
(11-14 March 2012)

*       [Top50 citation of Tectonophysics 2005-2010 ] The paper by Prof. Ogata and Dr. Zhuang (Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, Issue 1-2, Pages 13-23.) has been one of the “Top-50 most cited articles” published in Tectonophysics 2005-2010. (29 November 2010)

*       It was published in newspaper on 8 November 2010 of Kanagawa Shimbun. (Japanese)

*       Visited Department of Geophysics, Peking University from 12th September to 11th October, 2010 as a Visiting Professor of School of Earth and Space Science.

*       Organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (August 2010)

*       Organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (June 2010)

*       Keynote lecture (IL-SONG lecture) at The Spring Korean Statistical Society Annual Meeting. (31 May 2010)

*       It was published in the morning newspaper on 9 February 2010 of Asahi Shimbun.(Japanese)

*       ISM News No.104 (May, 2009): “Research Front Line” (Japanese)

*       Presentation of a Tutorial Talk at IMA (June 2002)


*       Recently published papers (Updated on 26 July 2022) UP!

*       Unpublished papers 

*       Recent conference talks  (Updated on 3 August 2022) UP!


My publications are roughly classified into 7 fields (allowing duplication of papers) as follows:

*       Statistical analysis for point processes

*       Statistical seismology

*       Spatial statistics

*       Bayesian modelling and its applications

*       Applications of Markov chain Monte Carlo method

*       Inference for stochastic processes

*       Others


Updated on 3 August 2022 UP!
My curriculum vitae
consists of: 

*       Photo  

*       Research interests

*       Membership

*       Employment (current position, previous employment and adjunct appointments)

*       Education

*       Prize

*       Editorial positions

*       Other professional services for domestic and international societies  

*       Invited lectures at seismological and statistical conferences

*       Teaching and postgraduate supervision

*       Software development  

*       Hobbies 


Email: ogata@ism.ac.jp

Telephone : +81 50 5533 8500 (institute call)

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