- Recently published papers
- Unpublished Papers
- Statistical analysis for point processes
- Statistical seismology
- Spatial statistics
- Bayesian modelling
- Applications of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
- Inference for stochastic processes
- Others

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H.
(2017). Aftershock analysis of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.98, pp.386-391, September 2017. → PDF(Vol.98 (10-3))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y.
(2017). BPT model forecast based on the recent paleoearthquake catalog (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.98, pp.443-448, September 2017. → PDF(Vol.98 (12-21))

Shcherbakov,
R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Constraining the magnitude of the largest
event in a foreshock – mainshock – aftershock sequence, *Geophysical Journal International*, doi:10.1093/gji//ggx407, September 2017.

Ogata, Y. (2017). Forecasting of a
Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research, *Seismological Research Letters*, Vol.88, No.4, pp.1117-1126,
doi:10.1785/0220170006, July/August 2017.

Ogata, Y.
(2017). Statistics of Earthquake Activity: Models and Methods for Earthquake
Predictability Studies, *Annual Review of Earth
and Planetary Sciences*, Vol.45, pp.497-527,
doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-015918. - (Volume publication date June 2017)

Ogata, Y. (2017). Statistics of Earthquake Activity, *Annual Review of Earth and Planetary
Sciences*, Vol.45, No.1, pp.-, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-015918, June
2017. (Accepted)

Ishibe, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2017). Testing the
Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes, *Geoscience Letters,* Vol.4, No.5,
doi:10.1186/s40562-017-0070-y, 6 March 2017. (Open Access)

Ogata, Y. (2017). On spontaneous seismicity rate in
Japan inland (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.97, pp.9-12, March 2017. → PDF(Vol.97 (1-3))

Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H., Omi, T., Nomura, S., Kumazawa, T. and Aihara,
K. (2017). Seismic activity before and after the 2016 Central Tottori
Prefecture earthquake (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.97, pp.368-374, March 2017. →PDF(Vol.97
(9-7))

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Wang, T. (2017). Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake
sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS
parameters, *Earth, Planets and Space, *Vol.69,
Article 36, doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0620-8, February 2017. (Open Access)

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki,
K. and Aihara, K. (2016). Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using
real-time seismicity data in Japan, *Bulletin
of the Seismological Society of America*, Vol.106,
No.6, pp.2450-2458, doi:10.1785/0120160100, December 2016.

Nomura, S. Ogata, Y., Uchida, N. and Matsu’ura, M.
(2016). Spatiotemporal variations of interplate slip rates in northeast Japan
inverted from recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes, *Geophysical Journal International*,
Vol.208, Issue 1, pp.468-481, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw395, October 2016. →
Open Access

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kato, A. and
Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical analysis of the swarm activity induced by the
2016 April earthquake of M6.1 at the southeast off the coast of the Mie
Prefecture (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.96, pp.304-310,
September 2016. → PDF(Vol.96
(8-5))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka,
H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of seismicity in Kyushu District before the
occurrence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes of M6.5 and M7.3 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.96, pp.642-651, September 2016. → PDF(Vol.96 (12-21))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2016). Foreshock forecast probabilities of the
M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.96, pp.652-657, September 2016. → PDF(Vol.96 (12-22))

Ogata, Y. (2016). Provisional calculations of the
probability forecast of the Kumamoto M7.3 earthquake (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.96, pp.658-661, September 2016. →
PDF(Vol.96 (12-23))

Omi, T.,
Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Aihara, K. (2016). Probability aftershock
forecasting of the M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto earthquakes of 2016 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.96, pp.662-667, September 2016. →
PDF(Vol.96 (12-24))

Ogata,
Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring
of aftershock sequences: a case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal,
earthquake, *Earth, Planets and Space*, Vol.68, Article
44, doi: 10.1186/s40623-016-0410-8,
March 2016. → Open
Access

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K.,
Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Background
rates of swarm earthquakes that are synchronized with volumetric strain
changes, *Earth and Planetary
Science Letters**,*
Vol.442, pp.51-60, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.049. (Available online: March
2016)

Ogata, Y. (2015). Monitoring seismicity anomalies by statistical models (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.94, pp.412-423, September 2015. → PDF(Vol.94 (12-8))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K.,
Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting changing rates of swarm activity
by volumetric strain changes (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.94,
pp.136-144, September 2015. →
PDF(Vol.94 (5-1))

Ogata, Y. (2015). On the Special Topic “Statistical
Seismology Research on Earthquake Predictability (in Japanese), *Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical
Mathematics*, Vol.63,
No.1, pp.1-2, June 2015. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2015). Stochastic Prediction of Earthquakes --- A
Strategy for the Research (in Japanese), *Proceedings
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.63,
No.1, pp.3-27, June 2015. → PDF

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
(2015). Evaluation Methods of Earthquake
Forecasts (in Japanese), *Proceedings of
the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.63,
No.1, pp.29-44, June 2015. → PDF

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2015).
Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence:
Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches, *Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth*, Vol.120, Issue4,
pp.2561-2578, doi:10.1002/2014JB011456, April 2015.

Ogata, Y. (2015). Evaluating
predictive ability of background seismicity, aftershocks and induced
earthquakes (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.93, pp.415-426, March
2015. → PDF(Vol.93 (12-7))

Ogata, Y.
and Katsura, K. (2014). Comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock
forecasting in observed and simulated earthquake catalogs, *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.119, Issue 11,
pp.8457-8477, doi:10.1002/2014JB011250,
November 2014.

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2014).
Nonstationary ETAS models for nonstandard earthquakes, *Annals of Applied Statistics*, Vol.8, No.3, pp.1825-1852,
doi:10.1214/14-AOAS759, http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1414091236,
September 2014.

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Nadeau, R.M. (2014). Space-time
model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of recurrence intervals on the San
Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.119,
Issue9, pp.7092-7122, doi:10.1002/2013JB010558,
September 2014.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and
Aihara, K. (2014). Probability aftershock forecasting by the ETAS model (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.92, pp.386-389, September 2014. →
PDF(Vol.92 (11-2))

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Identification and
estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*,
Vol.66, pp.687-702, doi:10.1007/s10463-013-0431-z, August 2014.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and
Aihara, K. (2014). Real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks after
the main shock (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.91, pp.66-71. →
PDF(Vol.91
(3-2))

Ogata, Y. (2014). The aftershock activity of M9
Tohoku-Oki earthquake in and around outer-rise region (2011.3.11–2013.10.26)
(in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.91, pp.72-76. → PDF(Vol.91
(3-3))

Ogata, Y. (2014). Aftershock
activity of the 13 April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 in Awaji Island
(2011.4.13–2013.11.8) (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.91,
pp.267-268. → PDF(Vol.91 (8-3))

Ogata, Y. (2014). Probablistic forecasts of large
earthquakes using statistical models (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.91, pp.387-395. → PDF(Vol.91
(12-6))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and
Aihara, K. (2014). Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence,
*Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.41, pp.
850-857, doi:10.1002/2013GL058958.

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative
description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki
Earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.118, Issue12, pp.6165-6182, doi:10.1002/2013JB010259.

Ogata, Y. (2013). A prospect of
earthquake prediction research, *Statistical
Science*, Vol.28, No.4, pp.521-541, doi:10.1214/13-STS439. → PDF

Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y. (2013).
Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and analysis of repeating earthquakes on
the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from July 15, 1993 till March
11, 2011 (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.90, pp.49-53. →
PDF(Vol.90
(2-2))

Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y.
(2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and statistical analysis of
repeating earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from
July 15, 1993 till March 10, 2011, on emphasis of before and after major
earthquakes (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.90, pp.54-57. →
PDF(Vol.90 (2-3))

Ogata, Y. (2013). Aftershock activity of the Tohoku-Oki
earthquake (2011.3.11 – 2013.2.2) (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.90, pp.104-108. → PDF(Vol.90
(3-2))

Ogata, Y. (2013). Long-term
aftershock activity of the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 until the 13 April 2013
earthquake of M6.3 near Awaji Island (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.90, pp.352-355. → PDF(Vol.90 (8-3))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013).
Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock, *Nature Scientific Reports*, Scientific
Reports 3, Article No.2218, doi:10.1038/srep02218. (June 2013) → PDF(srep02218,
Supplementary
Information), HTML

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G.,
Nanjo, K.Z. and Zhuang, J. (2013). Comprehensive and topical evaluations of
earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude, *Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America*, Vol.103, No.3, pp.1692-1708, doi:10.1785/0120120063.

Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y. (2013). A non-stationary
epidemic type aftershock sequence model for seismicity prior to the December
26, 2004 M9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands mega-earthquake, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.118, pp.1-14,
doi:10.1002/jgrb.50068. (Published online 26 February 2013)

Ogata, Y. (2013). Retrospective
analysis of the long-term prediction of seismic activities that are induced by
the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.89, pp.278-281. → PDF(Vol.89 (8-2))

Ogata, Y. (2013). Seismicity anomaly that preceded the
2004 Sumatra earthquake M9.1 (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.89,
pp.432-440. → PDF(Vol.89
(12-11))

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y.
(2012). Statistical analysis for the change of seismicity after 25 March 1998
the Balleny earthquake (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.34, No.9, pp.529-545.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2012). Prospective foreshock
forecast experiment during the last 17 years, *Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.191, Issue3, pp.1237–1244,
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05645.x.→ PDF

Ogata, Y. (2012). Long- and
intermediate space-time forecast in Japanese Islands induced by the 2011
Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.88, pp.35-39. →
PDF(Vol.88 (1-6))

Ogata, Y. (2012). Long-term probability forecast of the
regional seismicity that was induced by the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.88, pp.92-99. → PDF(Vol.88
(3-2))

Ogata, Y. (2012). Tohoku earthquake
aftershock activity (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.88,
pp.100-103. → PDF(Vol.88 (3-3))

Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone,
G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T.H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K.,
Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012). Predictability study on the
aftershock sequence following the 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first
results, *Geophysical Journal
International*, Vol.191, Issue2, pp.653–658, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x.
→ PDF

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2012).
Maximum pseudo-likelihood analyses of clustering point processes and some
properties of Palm intensity (in Japanese), *Tokei-Suri
(Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics)*, Vol.60, No.1,
pp.37-55. → PDF(pp.37-55)

Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist, E.L.
(2012). Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and
blind tests, *Geophysical Journal
International*, Vol.188, Issue3, pp.1425–1440,
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2012). Tohoku earthquake
aftershock activity and triggered activity near Matsumoto (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.87, pp.546-553. → PDF(Vol.87
(12-13))

Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational probability foreshock
forecasts up until Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.86, pp.123-125. → PDF(Vol.86
(3-18))

Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2011).
Tohoku earthquake: aftershock activity and triggered activities in the eastern
Honshu area (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.86, pp.126-133. →
PDF(Vol.86
(3-19))

Ogata, Y. (2011). Preshock activity and quiescence for long-term
seismic activity in and around Japan (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.86, pp.134-141. → PDF(Vol.86
(3-20))

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y.
(2011). Statistical Analysis Of Seismicity In A Wide Region Around The 1998 Mw
8.1 Balleny Islands Earthquake In The Antarctic Plate, *Polar Science*, Vol.5, pp.421-431, doi:10.1016/j.polar.2011.08.002. →
PDF

Ogata, Y. (2011). Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and
crustal deformation: case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of *M*6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake
of *M*6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu
earthquake of *M*6.8, *Geophysical Journal International*,
Vol.186, Issue1, pp.331-348, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05033.x. → PDF

Erratum
*Geophysical Journal International,*
Vol.188, Issue 3, pp.1454, March 2012, Article first published online: 27
January 2012, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x/abstract.

Nomura, S., Ogata,
Y., Komaki, F. and Toda, S. (2011). Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent
earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.116, B04315, doi:10.1029/2010JB007917.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Significant improvements of the space-time
ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, *Earth, Planets and Space*, Vol.63, No.3,
pp. 217-229, doi:10.5047/eps.2010.09.001.

Ogata, Y. (2011).
Summary of intensive discussion subject for “Seismic activity” (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.85, pp.429-432. → PDF(Vol.85
(12-1))

Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational
Probability Forecast of Foreshocks (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.85, pp.440-444. → PDF(Vol.85
(12-4))

Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2011). Evaluation of warning forecasts by a gambling score (in
Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Vol.85, pp.451-452. → PDF(Vol.85
(12-7))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S.
(2010). Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to
the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.115, B10312,
doi:10.1029/2010JB007567.

Kumazawa, T. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Aseismic slip scenario for transient crustal deformations
around the southern fault before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland earthquake (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.84, pp.93-97. → PDF(Vol.84
(3-5))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010). A
Bayesian predictor based on prior distributions of BPT model with slip rates
(in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.84, pp.483-488. → PDF(Vol.84
(11-11))

Ogata, Y. (2010).
Anomalies of seismic activity and transient crustal deformations preceding the
2005 M7.0 earthquake west of Fukuoka, *Pure and Applied Geophysics*,
Vol.167, No.8-9, pp.1115-1127, doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0096-y. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010). Bridging great earthquake
doublets through silent slip: On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril
Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer rise normal
fault the 2007 great earthquake, *Journal
of Geophysical Research*, Vol.115, B06318, doi:10.1029/2009JB006777.

Ogata, Y. (2010). Space-time
heterogeneity in aftershock activity, *Geophysical
Journal International*, Vol.181, Issue 3, pp.1575-1592,
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04542.x. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2010). Earthquake forecast in
*Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.83, pp.5-8. → PDF(Vol.83
(1-2))

Ogata, Y. (2010).
Seismicity changes in the central and western district of Shizuoka Prefecture
before the August 2009 Earthquake of M6.5 at Suruga Bay and its aftershock
activity (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.83, pp.231-236. → PDF(Vol.83 (6-4))

Adelfio, G. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Hybrid kernel estimates
of space–time earthquake occurrence rates using the epidemic-type aftershock
sequence model, *Annals of the Institute
of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.62, No.1, pp.127-143,
doi:10.1007/s10463-009-0268-7. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2009). A
correction method of routinely determined hypocenter coordinates in far
offshore region (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.82, pp.91-93. →
PDF(Vol.82
(3-3))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S.
(2009). Seismicity changes in northern Tohoku District before the 2008
Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.82, pp.96-105. → PDF(Vol.82 (3-5))

Llenos, A.L., McGuire, J.J. and
Ogata, Y. (2009). Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients, *Earth and Planetary Science Letters*,
Vol.281, Issues1-2, pp.59-69, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.02.011. → PDF

Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage,
M. K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., and Jackson, D. D. (2008). Differences
between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: Their influences on foreshock
probabilities, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.

Tanaka, U., Ogata, Y. and Katsura,
K. (2008). Simulation and estimation of the Neyman-Scott type spatial cluster
models, *Computer Science Monograph*, No.34,
pp.1-44, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2008). On- and
off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by
a slow slip preceding the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting earthquake (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.80, pp.562-567. → PDF(Vol.80
(12-5))

Ogata, Y. (2008).
On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous seismicity and
crustal changes around the source, and the normal feature of the aftershock
activity (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.79, pp.345-352. →
PDF(Vol.79
(7-3))

Ogata, Y. (2008). Occurrence of the
large earthquakes during 1978~2007 compared with the selected seismicity zones
by the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake Prediction (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.79, pp.623-625. → PDF(Vol.79
(12-1))

Tanaka, U., Ogata,
Y. and Stoyan, D. (2008). Parameter estimation and model selection for
Neyman-Scott point processes, *Biometrical
Journal*, Vol.50, Issue1, pp.43-57, doi:10.1002/bimj.200610339. → PDF

Wakaura, M and Ogata, Y. (2007). A time series analysis on the seasonality of
air temperature anomalies, *Meteorological Applications*,
Vol.14, Issue4, pp.425-434, doi: 10.1002/met.41.

Ogata, Y. (2007).
Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu
earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.112, B10301,
doi:10.1029/2006JB004697.

Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2007). Anomalies
of seismicity in space and time measured by the ETAS model and stress changes
(in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.78, pp.60-66. → PDF(Vol.78 (2-3))

Ogata, Y. (2007).
Anomalies of seismicity and crustal movement in and around the Noto Peninsula
before the 2007 earthquake of M6.9 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.78, pp.399-404. → PDF(Vol.78 (7-11))

Nanjo, K.Z., Enescu, B., Shcherbakov,
R., Turcotte, D.L., Iwata, T. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Decay of aftershock
activity for Japanese earthquakes, *Journal
of Geophysical Research*, Vol.112, No.B8, B08309, doi:10.1029/2006JB004754.

Ogata, Y. (2007).
Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu
Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee
for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.77, pp.452-459. → PDF(Vol.77 (11-4))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly
scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi
Prefecture, northern Japan, *Tectonophysics*,
Vol.424, pp.291-306, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006).
Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu
formula and stress changes (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.76,
pp.590-597. → PDF(Vol.76 (11-1))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies in the
aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004
Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern
Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), *Chikyu
Monthly*, Vol.28, No.7, pp.470-474.

Ogata, Y. and
Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, *Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.33,
No.10, L10305,
doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006).
Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in
an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, *Physical Review, E*, Vol. 73, 046134,
doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Statistical
Analysis of Seismicity - Updated Version (SASeis2006), *Computer Science Monograph*, No.33, pp.1-28, The Institute of
Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Zhuang, J. (2006). TIMSAC84:
Statistical Analysis of Series of Events (TIMSAC84-SASE) Version 2, *Computer Science Monograph*, No.32,
pp.1-16, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006).
Seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the
16th August 2005 interplate earthquake of M7.2 off the coast of Miyagi
Prefecture, and the aftershock activity of the M7.2 earthquake (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.75, pp.129-131. → PDF(Vol.75 (3-6))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Aftershock activities
of recent conspicuous earthquakes in and near Japan (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.75, pp.593-597. → PDF(Vol.75
(11-4))

Ogata, Y. (2006).
On conspicuous aftershock activity relative to the background seismicity in the
active regions (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.75, pp.598-601. →
PDF(Vol.75
(11-5))

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006).
Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, *Tectonophysics*, Vol.413, pp.13-23. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006).
Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0
off coast of the western *Geophysical Research Letters*,
Vol.33, No.1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Discussion on
"Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley, A.,
Turner, R., Moller, J. and Hazelton, M.,
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,
Series B*, Vol.67, Part 5, pp.661, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x. →
PDF

Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching
processes for earthquakes, *Springer Lecture
Note in Statistics: Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models* (Baddeley,
A., Gregori, P., Mateu, J., Stoica, R. and Stoyan, D.), Springer-Verlag, New
York, 185, pp.276-292.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in the
aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004
Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido
inland (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.74, pp.83-88. →
PDF(Vol.74
(2-6))

Ogata, Y. (2005).
Seismicity changes in and around Kyushu District before the 2005 earthquake of
M7.0 in the western offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.74, pp523-528. → PDF(Vol.74 (10-18))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Relative quiescence
reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock (M5.8) in the
aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Kyushu, and
possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the stress-shadow
covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.74, pp.529-535. → PDF(Vol.74
(10-19))

Ogata, Y. (2005).
Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern *Journal
of Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake
modeling, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Zhuang, J., Chang,
C., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering
seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous
seismicity as a stress change sensor, *Journal
of Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Ogata, Y. (2005).
On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake
of M6.8, and intermediate-term seismicity anomalies preceding the rupture
around the focal region (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee
for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.73, pp.327-331. → PDF(Vol.73 (7-4))

Ogata, Y. (2005). On the aftershock
activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the
Kii Peninsula, and constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms
and space-time pattern of the aftershocks (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.73, pp.495-498. → PDF(Vol.73
(8-7))

Ogata, Y. (2005).
Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the
application to aftershock probability forecasting (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.73, pp.666-669. →
PDF(Vol.73
(11-10))

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H.,
Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the
ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, *Pure and Applied
Geophysics*, Vol.162, pp.1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2004).
Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the northern Japan relating
to the 2003 Tokachi earthquake of M8.0 (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.72, pp.110-117. →
PDF(Vol.72
(2-7))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and
statistical modeling (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.72,
pp.631-637. → PDF(Vol.72 (11-7))

Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using
stochastic reconstruction, *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence
and activation in western *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.109, No.B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Ogata, Y. (2004).
Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress
changes, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the 2003
foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture,
northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.71, pp.260-267. → PDF(Vol.71
(2-12))

Ogata, Y. (2004).
Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku District,
northern Japan, prior to the large interplate earthquakes off the coast of
Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.71, pp.268-278. → PDF(Vol.71 (2-13))

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in
western *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.70,
pp.361-363. → PDF(Vol.70
(6-3))

Ogata, Y. (2003).
Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with 1944 and
1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai Trough (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.70, pp.378-383. →
PDF(Vol.70
(7-3))

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M.
(2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its
residual analysis, *Applied Statistics (JRSSC)*, Vol.52, Part4,
pp.499-509. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2003). A
space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes
(in Japanese), *Chikyu Monthly*, Vol.25, No.10, pp.783-787.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003).
Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related
earth physics, *International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering
Seismology*, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's
Interior, Vol.81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter 82.

Vere-Jones, D. and
Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical principles for seismologists, *International
Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology*, International
Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol.81B,
pp.1573-1586.

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S.
(2003). When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay
patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.108, No. B6, 2318,
doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Ogata, Y. (2002).
Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for
uncertainties, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.107, No.B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D.
(2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, *Journal
of American Statistical Association*, Vol. 97, No.458, pp.369-380. → PDF

Huang, F. and
Ogata, Y. (2002). Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for Markov random
fields on lattice, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*,
Vol.54, No.1, pp.1-18. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001).
Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the
multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M≧4) around Beijing area based
on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.66, pp.562-570 (2001). → PDF(Vol.66
(10-4))

Ogata, Y. (2001).
Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models,
Festscrift Volume for Professor Vere-Jones, *Journal of Applied Probability*,
Vol.38A, pp.202-212. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and
uncertainties when estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in
Japanese with English summary and captions), *Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of
Geography),* Vol.110, No.4, pp. 602-614. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001).
Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with
relative quiescence, *Journal of
Geophysical Research,*
Vol.106, No.B5, pp. 8729-8744.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001).
Comparison of two methods for calculating the partition functions of various
spatial statistical models, *Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics*,
Vol.43, pp. 47-65. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura,
K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes
age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, *Scandinavian
Journal of Statistics*, Vol. 27, No.3, pp. 415-432. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanaka, U., Searching for locations of
parents from superposed clusters, *ISM
Research Memorandum*, No.1175, pp.1-18.

Ogata, Y., Seismicity shadow and
stress shadow in aftershock activity, in preparation.

Ogata, Y., Preseismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal
deformation: Case studies of the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake of M6.9 and the
2007 Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of M6.8, *ISM
Research Memorandum*, No.1109, pp.1-51.

Tanaka, Ushio and Ogata, Y.,
Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster
processes, *ISM Research Memorandum*,
No.1106.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y., A new transformation formula to search the MLE by Markov chain Monte Carlo Method, submitted.

Ogata, Y. (1978). The asymptotic behavior of maximum
likelihood estimators for stationary point processes, *Annals of the
Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.30, No.2, PartA, pp.243-261. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1981). On Lewis'
simulation method for point processes, *IEEE Transactions on Information
Theory*, Vol.IT-27, pp.23-31.

Nakamura, M., Ogata, Y. and Ohmura, Y. (1981). Evaluation
of neuronal spike train data by new methodologies of wave form discrimination
and point process analysis, *Proceedings of the 7th International CODATA
Conference*, Pergamon Press, Oxford.

Ogata, Y. (1981). Analysis of series
of events - statistical relation of earthquake sequences between certain two
different Regions (in Japanese), *Suri-Kagaku* (Mathematical Sciences),
No.213, pp.30-36.

Ogata, Y. and Akaike, H. (1982). On linear intensity
models for mixed doubly stochastic Poisson and self-exciting point processes, *Journal
of the Royal Statistical Society B*, Vol.44, No.1, pp.102-107. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Akaike, H. and Katsura,
K. (1982). The application of linear intensity models to the investigation of
causal relations between a point process and another stochastic process, *Annals
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.34, No.2, B, pp.373-387. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1983). Estimation of the parameters in the
modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood
procedure, *Journal of Physics of the Earth*, Vol.31, pp.115-124.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Likelihood
analysis of point processes and its applications to seismological data, *Bulletin
of the International Statistical Institute*, Vol.50, Book2, pp.943-961. → PDF

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (1984). On the moments of a
self-correcting process, *Journal of Applied Probability*, Vol.21,
pp.335-342. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (1984).
Inference for earthquake models: A self-correcting model, *Stochastic
Processes and their Applications*, Vol.17, pp.337-347.

Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984) Transition from
aftershock to normal activity, *Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America*, Vol.74, No.5, pp.1757-1765.

Akaike, H., Ozaki, T., Ishiguro, M.,
Ogata, Y., Kitagawa, G., Tamura, Y., Arahata, E., Katsura, K. and Tamura, R.
(1984).* Time Series and Control Program Package*, **TIMSAC-84**,
Computer Science Monograph, No.22/23, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Tokyo, Japan.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1986). Point-process models
with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in *Essays
in Time Series and Allied Processes* (Papers in honour of E.J. Hannan), Eds.
J. Gani and M. B. Priestley, *Journal of Applied Probability*, Vol.23A,
pp.291-310. → PDF

Ozaki, T., Akaike, H., Ogata, Y.,
Ishiguro, M. and Kitagawa, G., *Time Series Analysis*, Textbook for
University of the Air, Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK) (1988).

Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake
occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, *Journal of American Statistical
Association*, Application, Vol.83, No.401, pp.9-27. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1989). Statistical model
for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, *Techtonophysics*,
Vol.169, pp.159-174.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Some statistical methods for modelling
of point process data, *Proceedings on Stochastic methods for Biological
Intelligence*, Ed. M. K. Habib, Plenum Publishing Company.

Ogata ,Y. and Abe, K. (1991). Some statistical
features of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic
activity, *International Statistical Review*, Vol.59, No.2, 139-161. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1991). Maximum likelihood
estimates of the fractal dimension for random spatial patterns, *Biometrika*,
Vol.78, No.3, pp.463-474. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time
variations of detection rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in
Japanese), *Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei
Suri)*, Vol.39, No.2, pp.245-256.

Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative
quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.97, pp.19845-19871.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993).
Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency
distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, *Geophysical Journal
International*, Vol.113, pp.727-738. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Matsu'ura, R. S. and Katsura, K. (1993). Fast
likelihood computation of epidemic type aftershock-sequence model, *Geophysical
Reseach Letters*, Vol.20, No.19, pp.2143-2146.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models
and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English
brief summary), *Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan*, Vol.22,
No.3 (Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan),
pp.413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1994). Seismological applications of
statistical methods for point-process modelling, *Proc. of the First
U.S./Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An
Informational Approach*, Bozdogan, H. (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Dordrecht, pp.137-163.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995).
Correlation between characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in
time, space and magnitude, *Geophysical Reseach Letters*, Vol.22, No.8, pp
993-996.

Ogata, Y., Utsu,T. and Katsura, K. (1995). Statistical
features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters, *Geophysical
Journal International*, Vol.121, pp.233-254. → PDF

Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura,
R. S. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock
activity, *Journal of Physics of the Earth*, Vol.43, pp.1-33.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Statistical models for seismic activity
(in Japanese), *Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Science)*, No.389, pp.13-20.

Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997).
Computer Program Package: Statistical Analysis of Seismicity (SASeis), *IASPEI
Software Library* for Personal Computers, Vol.6, the International
Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, in collabolation
with the American Seismological Society, pp.1-222.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations
between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, *Journal Geophysical
Research*, Vol.102, No.B2, pp.2857-2873.

Ohsuga, S., Ogata, Y. and Tamura, Y.
(1997). An analysis of afterpulse in photomultiplier tube: Application of point
process model to occcurrence-time data of photomultiplier dark pulses, *Nuclear
Instruments & Methods, Section A*,
Vol.A384, pp.477-481. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1997). Aftershock statistics and the ETAS
model for measuring seismicity (in Japanese), *Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst.
Statist. Math)*, Vol.45, No.1, pp.139-143. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Quiescence
Relative to the ETAS Model (in Japanese), in Special Issue on Long-Term
Earthquake Forecasts, *Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan)*,
2nd series, Vol.50, pp.115-127. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for
earthquake occurrences, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,*
Vol.50, No.2, pp.379-402. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Seismicity
analyses through point-process modelling: A review, in *Seismicity Patterns,
Their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning* M. Wyss, K. Shimazaki
and A. Ito eds. Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, *Pure and Applied Geophysics*,
Vol.155, pp.471-507. → PDF

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real time statistical
discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters (in Japanese), *Tokei-Suri
(Proc. Inst. Statist. Math)*, Vol.47, No.1, pp.223-241. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the
hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times to of paleoearthquakes, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.104, No.B8, pp.17995-18014.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999). Improvements of the maximum
pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models, *J.
Computational and Graphical Statistics*, Vol.8, No.3, pp.510-530. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N.,
Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of
retrospective incidence data, *Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, * Vol.27, No.3, pp.415-432. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large
earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, *Journal of
Geophysical Research,* Vol.106, No.B5, pp.8729-8744.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Exploratory
analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, Festscrift Volume
for Professor Vere-Jones, *Journal of Applied Probability*, Vol.38A,
pp.202-212. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when
estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English
summary and captions), *Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography),* Vol.110,
No.4, pp 602-614. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001).
Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the
multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M≧4) around Beijing area based on the ultra-low
frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.66, pp.562-570
(2001). → PDF(Vol.66
(10-4))

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002).
Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, *Journal of
American Statistical Association*, Vol.97, No.458, pp.369-380. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent
renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.107, No.B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14).

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and
where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the
proximate large earthquakes in southern California, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.108, No.B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003).
Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related
earth physics, *International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering
Seismology*, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's
Interior, Vol.81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter82.

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional
seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), *Chikyu Monthly*,
Vol.25, No.10, pp.783-787.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura,
M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and
its residual analysis, *Applied Statistics (JRSSC)*, Vol.52, Part4,
pp.499-509. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the 2003
foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture,
northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.71, pp.260-267. → PDF(Vol.71
(2-12))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical
analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan,
prior to the large interplate earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture
(in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction*, Vol.71, pp.268-278. → PDF(Vol.71
(2-13))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional
seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity
quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946
great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, *Journal
of Geophysical Research*, Vol.109, No.B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004).
Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan,
H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the
ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, *Pure and Applied
Geophysics*, Vol.162, pp.1367-1396. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a
stress change sensor, *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and
Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the
Taiwan region by using point process models, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Detecting fluid signals
in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Synchronous
seismicity changes in and around the northern *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models
and an improved extension, *Tectonophysics*,
Vol.413, pp.13-23. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of
anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of
the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, *Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.33, No.1, L01303,
doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the
probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake
cluster and their implications to foreshocks, *Physical Review, E*, Vol.73, 046134, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.
→
PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006).
Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, *Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.33, No.10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in
space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.76, pp.590-597. → PDF(Vol.76
(11-1))

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of
seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of
M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.77, pp.452-459. → PDF(Vol.77 (11-4))

Ogata, Y. (1981). Analysis of series of events -
statistical relation of earthquake sequences between certain two different Regions
(in Japanese), *Suri-Kagaku*
(Mathematical Sciences), No.213, pp.30-36.

Ogata, Y. and Akaike, H. (1982). On
linear intensity models for mixed doubly stochastic Poisson and self-exciting
point processes, *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B*, Vol.44,
No.1, pp.102-107. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Akaike, H. and Katsura, K. (1982). The
application of linear intensity models to the investigation of causal relations
between a point process and another stochastic process, *Annals of the
Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.34, No.2, Part B, pp.373-387. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1983). Estimation of the
parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the
maximum likelihood procedure, *Journal of Physics of the Earth*, Vol.31,
pp.115-124.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Likelihood analysis of point processes
and its applications to seismological data, *Bulletin of the International
Statistical Institute*, Vol.50, Book2, pp.943-961. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984)
Transition from aftershock to normal activity, *Bulletin of the Seismological
Society of America*, Vol.74, No.5, pp.1757-1765.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1986). Point-process models
with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in *Essays
in Time Series and Allied Processes* (Papers in honour of E.J. Hannan), Eds.
Gani, J. and Priestley, M. B., *Journal of Applied Probability*, Vol.23A,
pp.291-310. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Yamashina, K. (1986).
Unbiased estimate for *b*-value of magnitude frequency, *Journal of
Physics of the Earth*, Vol.34, pp.187-194.

Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake
occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, *Journal of American
Statistical Association*, Vol.83, No.401, pp.9-27. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1989). Statistical model
for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, *Techtonophysics*,
Vol.169, pp.159-174.

Inoue, H., Fukao, Y., Tanabe, K. and Ogata, Y. (1990).
Whole mantle P-wave travel time tomography, *Physics of Earth and Planet's
Interiors*, Vol.59, pp.294-328. → PDF

Imoto, M., Furukawa, N. and Ogata,
Y. (1990). Three-dimensional spatial variations of *b*-value in the Kanto
Area, Japan (in Japanese), *Zisin* (2), Vol.43, pp.321-326. → PDF

Ogata ,Y. and Abe, K. (1991). Some statistical features
of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic activity, *International
Statistical Review*, Vol.59, No.2, pp.139-161. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K.
(1991). 3-D spatial variation of *b*-values of magnitude-frequency
distribution beneath the Kanto District, Japan, *Geophysical Journal International*,
Vol.104, pp.135-146. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection
rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), *Proceedings
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei Suri)*, Vol.39, No.2,
pp.245-256.

Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of
precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical
model, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.97, pp.19845-19871.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal
and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from
earthquake catalogues, *Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.113,
pp.727-738. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Matsu'ura, R. S. and
Katsura, K. (1993). Fast likelihood computation of epidemic type
aftershock-sequence model, *Geophysical Reseach Letters*, Vol.20, No.19,
pp.2143-2146.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in
seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English summary), *Journal
of the Statistical Society of Japan*, Vol.22, No.3 (Special issue for 60th
anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp.413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1994). Seismological
applications of statistical methods for point-process modelling, *Proc. of
the First U.S./Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An
Informational Approach*, Bozdogan, H. (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers,
Dordrecht, pp.137-163.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between
characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and
magnitude, *Geophysical Reseach Letters*, Vol.22, No.8, pp.993-996.

Ogata, Y., Utsu ,T. and Katsura, K.
(1995). Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake
clusters, *Geophys. J. Int*, Vol.121, pp.233-254.

Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura, R. S. (1995). The
centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, *J.
Phys. Earth*, Vol.43, pp.1-33.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Statistical models
for seismic activity (in Japanese), *Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Science)*,
No.389, pp.13-20.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Evaluation of probability forecasts of
events, invited discussion as a commentary on "Forecasting Earthquakes and
Earthquake Risk" by Prof. D. Vere-Jones, *International Journal of
Forecasting*, Vol.11, pp.539-541. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K.
(1996). Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters,
*Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.127, pp.17-30. → PDF

Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer program package:
Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity (SASeis), invited and
accepted for *IASPEI Software Library* for Personal Computers, the
International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, in
collabolation with the American Seismological Society, Vol.6, pp.13-94.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997).
Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and
magnitude, *Journal Geophysical Research*, Vol.102, No.B2, pp.2857-2873.

Ogata, Y. (1997). Aftershock statistics and the ETAS
model for measuring seismicity (in Japanese), *Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst.
Statist. Math)*, Vol.45, No.1, pp.139-143. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Quiescence
Relative to the ETAS Model (in Japanese), in Special Issue on Long-Term
Earthquake Forecasts, *Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan)*,
2nd series, Vol.50, pp.115-127. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for
earthquake occurrences, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,*
Vol.50, No.2, pp.379-402. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). A research
proposal statistical earthquake prediction (in Japanese), *Chikyu Monthly*, No.20, pp.132-135.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Real time discrimination of forshocks
(in Japanese), *Chikyu Monthly*, No.24,
pp.167-173.

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real
time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters
(in Japanese), *(Proc. Inst. Statist. Math)*, Vol.47, No.1, pp.223-241. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Seismicity analyses through
point-process modelling: A review, in *Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical
Significance and Physical Meaning* M. Wyss, K. Shimazaki and A. Ito eds.
Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, *Pure and Applied Geophysics*, Vol.155,
pp.471-507. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the
hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times to of paleoearthquakes, *Journal of Geophysical Research.*, Vol.104, No.B8,
pp.17995-18014.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large
earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, *Journal of
Geophysical Research,* Vol.106, No B5, pp.8729-8744.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Exploratory
analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, Festscrift
Volume for Professor Vere-Jones, *Journal of Applied Probability*,
Vol.38A, pp.202-212. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when
estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English
summary and captions), *Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography),* Vol.110,
No.4, pp.602-614. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001).
Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the
multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M≧4) around Beijing area based on the ultra-low
frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.66, pp.562-570. → PDF(Vol.66 (10-4))

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002).
Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, *Journal of
American Statistical Association*, Vol.97, No.458, pp.369-380. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2002).
Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for
uncertainties, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.107, No.B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14).

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and where
the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the
proximate large earthquakes in southern California, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.108, No.B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (2003).
Statistical principles for seismologists, *International Handbook of
Earthquake and Engineering Seismology*, International Association of
Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol.81B, pp.1573-1586.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of statistical
models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics, *International
Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology*, International
Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol.81B,
HandbookCD#2, Chapter82.

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model
for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), *Chikyu
Monthly*, Vol.25, No.10, pp.783-787.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling
heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, *Applied
Statistics (JRSSC)*, Vol.52, Part4, pp.499-509. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity
quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with 1944 and 1946 great
earthquakes near the Nankai Trough (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.70, pp.378-383. → PDF(Vol.70
(7-3))

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in western Japan
(1995-2001) detected by a statistical space-time model (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.70, pp.361-363. → PDF(Vol.70
(6-3))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the
2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture,
northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in
Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.71, pp.260-267. → PDF(Vol.71
(2-12))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical analysis of seismic
activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the large
interplate earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.71,
pp.268-278. → PDF(Vol.71
(2-13))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model
for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence and activation in
western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the
Nankai trough, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.109, No.B4, B04305,
doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using
stochastic reconstruction, *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical
modeling (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.72, pp.631-637. → PDF(Vol.72 (11-7))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity changes
and stress changes in and around the northern Japan relating to the 2003
Tokachi earthquake of M8.0 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.72, pp.110-117. → PDF(Vol.72 (2-7))

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma,
L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency
electric field in the Beijing region, *Pure and Applied Geophysics*,
Vol.162, pp.1367-1396. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2005). On an anomalous
aftershock activity of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and
intermediate-term seismicity anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal
region (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction*, Vol.73, pp.327-331. → PDF(Vol.73
(7-4))

Ogata, Y. (2005). On the aftershock activity of the 2004
earthquake of M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the Kii Peninsula, and
constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and space-time
pattern of the aftershocks (in Japanese), *Report
of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.73,
pp.495-498. → PDF(Vol.73
(8-7))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Simultaneous
estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application
to aftershock probability forecasting (in Japanese), *Report of the
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.73, pp.666-669. → PDF(Vol.73 (11-10))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a
stress change sensor, *Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06,
doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and
Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the
Taiwan region by using point process models, *Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Detecting fluid signals
in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, *Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Synchronous
seismicity changes in and around the northern *Journal
of Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences
of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake
of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.74, pp.83-88. → PDF(Vol.74
(2-6))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity changes
in and around Kyushu District before the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 in the western
offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.74, pp.523-528. → PDF(Vol.74 (10-18))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Relative quiescence reported before the
occurrence of the largest aftershock (M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005
earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of
precursory slips considered for the stress-shadow covering the aftershock area
(in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction*, Vol.74, pp.529-535. → PDF(Vol.74
(10-19))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of
anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of
the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, *Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.33, No.1, L01303,
doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models
and an improved extension, *Tectonophysics*,
Vol.413, pp.13-23. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismic activities
in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the 16th August 2005
interplate earthquake of M7.2 off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, and the
aftershock activity of the M7.2 earthquake (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.75, pp.129-131. → PDF(Vol.75
(3-6))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Aftershock activities of recent
conspicuous earthquakes in and near Japan (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*,
Vol.75, pp.593-597. → PDF(Vol.75
(11-4))

Ogata, Y. (2006). On conspicuous
aftershock activity relative to the background seismicity in the active regions
(in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.75, pp.598-601. → PDF(Vol.75 (11-5))

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the
probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake
cluster and their implications to foreshocks, *Physical Review, E*, Vol.73, 046134, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.
→
PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006).
Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, *Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.33, No.10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences
of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake
of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in
Japanese), *Chikyu Monthly*, Vol.28,
No.7, pp.470-474.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of
aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and
stress changes (in Japanese), *Report of
the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.76, pp.590-597. → PDF(Vol.76 (11-1))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to
the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture,
northern Japan, *Tectonophysics*,
Vol.424, pp.291-306, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of
seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of
M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in Japanese), *Report of the Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.77, pp.452-459. → PDF(Vol.77 (11-4))

Nanjo, K.Z., Enescu, B., Shcherbakov, R., Turcotte, D.L.,
Iwata, T. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Decay of aftershock activity for Japanese
earthquakes, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.112, No.B8, B08309, doi:10.1029/2006JB004754.

Tanemura, M. and Ogata, Y. (1981). Statistical modeling
for spatial point patterns and its application to the ecology of territory (in
Japanese), *Suri-Kagaku**
(Mathematical Sciences)*, No.213, pp.11-16.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1981).
Estimation of interaction potentials of spatial point patterns through the
maximum likelihood procedure, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical
Mathematics*, Vol.33, B, pp.315-338. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984). Likelihood analysis of
spatial point patterns, *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B*,
Vol.46, No.3, pp.496-518. →PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984).
Contribution to the invited discussion on Dr. Diggle's Paper, *Journal of the
Royal Statistical Society B*, Vol.46, No.2, pp.220-221.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1985). Estimation of
interaction potentials of marked spatial point patterns through the maximum
likelihood method, *Biometrics*, Vol.41, pp.421-433. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1986).
Likelihood estimation of interaction potentials and external fields of
inhomogeneous spatial point patterns, *Proceedings of the Pacific Statistical
Congress - 1985*, North-Holland, pp.150-154.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1987). Likelihood analysis
for Gibbsian point patterns (in Japanese), *Proceedings of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics* (*Tokei Suri*), Vol.35, No.2, pp.257-274.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1988).
Likelihood analysis of spatial inhomogenity for marked point patterns, *Annals
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.40, No.1, pp.29-39. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1989). Likelihood estimation
of soft-core interaction potentials for Gibbsian point patterns, *Annals of
the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.41, No.3, pp.583-600. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Goodness-of-fit of
Bayesian models by the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by
Besag, J., York, J. and Mollie, A., *Annals of the Institute of Statistical
Mathematics*, Vol.43, No.1, pp.25-32. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K. (1991). 3-D spatial
variation of *b*-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the
Kanto District, Japan, *Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.104,
pp.135-146. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1991).
Maximum likelihood estimates of the fractal dimension for random spatial
patterns, *Biometrika*, Vol.78, No.3, pp.463-474. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection
rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), *Proceedings
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei Suri)*, Vol.39, No.2,
pp.245-256.

Mase, S., Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M.
(1992). Staistics for spatial point patterns: Its theory and applications, *Sugaku-Exposition*,
the Mathematics Society of Japan, Vol.44, No.3, pp.193-204. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal
and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from
earthquake catalogues, *Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.113,
pp.727-738. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models
and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English
summary), *Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan*, Vol. 22, No. 3
(Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan),
pp.413-463.

Diggle, P. J., Fiksel, T., Grabanik, P., Ogata, Y.,
Stoyan, D. and Tanemura, M. (1994). On parameter estimation for pairwise
interaction point process, *Internatinal Statistical Review*, Vol.62,
No.1, pp.99-117. → PDF

Mase, S., Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M.
(1994). Statistical analysis of mapped point patterns - present condition of
theory and application, *American Mathematical Translation (2)*, Vol.161,
pp.95-108.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between
characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and
magnitude, *Geophysical Reseach Letters*, Vol.22, No.8, pp.993-996.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Markov Chain Monte
Carlo integration through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood
computation of Bayesian models, *Bulletin of the International Statistical
Institute*, Vol.56, Book4, pp.1873-1891.

Ogata, Y. (1996). Evaluating of spatial Bayesian models -
Two computational methods, *Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference*,
Vol.51, pp.1-18. → PDF

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997).
Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and
magnitude, *Journal Geophysical Research*, Vol.102, No.B2, pp.2857-2873.

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for
earthquake occurrences, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,*
Vol.50, No.2, pp.379-402. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Kobayashi, A., Mikami,
N., Murata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1998). Correction of earthquake location
estimation in a small-seismic-array system, *Bernoulli*, Vol.4, No.2,
pp.167-184. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Real time discrimination of forshocks
(in Japanese), *Chikyu Monthly*, No.24,
pp.167-173.

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real
time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters
(in Japanese), *Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math)*, Vol.47, No.1,
pp.223-241. → PDF

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999). Improvements of the
maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models, *J.
Computational and Graphical Statistics*, Vol.8, No.3, pp.510-530. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N.,
Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of
retrospective incidence data, *Scandinavian Journal of Statistics*, Vol.27, No.3, pp.415-432. → PDF

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001). Comparison of two methods
for calculating the partition functions of various spatial statistical models, *Australian
and New Zealand Journal of Statistics*, Vol.43, pp.47-65. → PDF

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2002).
Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for Markov random fields on lattice, *Annals
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.54, No.1, pp.1-18. → PDF

*Applied
Statistics (JRSSC)*, Vol.52, Part4, pp.499-509. → PDF

*Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

*Journal of
Geophysical Research*, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

*Tectonophysics*, Vol.413, pp.13-23. → PDF

*Report of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction*, Vol.76, pp.590-597. → PDF(Vol.76
(11-1))

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1988). Likelihood analysis of
spatial inhomogenity for marked point patterns, *Annals of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.40, No.1, pp.29-39. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1989). Comments on
"Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's
wind power resources by John Haslett and Adrian Raftery", *Applied
Statisitic (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C)*, Vol.38,
pp.37-38. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1990). A Monte Carlo method for an objective
Bayesian procedure, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*,
Vol.42, No.3, pp.403-433. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Goodness-of-fit of
Bayesian models by the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by Besag,
J., York, J. and Mollie, A., *Annals of the Institute of Statistical
Mathematics*, Vol.43, No.1, pp.25-32. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K. (1991). 3-D spatial
variation of *b*-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the
Kanto District, Japan, *Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.104,
pp.135-146. → PDF

*Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei
Suri)*, Vol.39, No.2, pp.245-256.

*Geophysical Journal International*, Vol.113,
pp.727-738. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models
and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English
summary), *Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan*, Vol. 22, No. 3
(Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan),
pp.413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration
through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood computation of
Bayesian models, *Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute*,
Vol.56, Book4, pp.1873-1891.

Ogata, Y. (1996). Evaluation of
spatial Bayesian models - Two computational methods, *Journal of Statistical
Planning and Inference*, Vol.51, pp.1-18. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Kobayashi, A., Mikami, N., Murata, Y. and
Katsura, K. (1998). Correction of earthquake location estimation in a
small-seismic-array system, *Bernoulli*, Vol.4, No.2, pp.167-184. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N.,
Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of
retrospective incidence data, *Scandinavian Journal of Statistics*, Vol.27, No.3, pp.415-432. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when
estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English
summary and captions), *Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography),* Vol.110,
No.4, pp.602-614. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2002).
Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for
uncertainties, *Journal of Geophysical
Research*, Vol.107, No.B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14).

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of
statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics,
*International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology*,
International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol.
81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter82.

*Chikyu
Monthly*, Vol.25, No.10, pp.783-787.

*Applied
Statistics (JRSSC)*, Vol.52, Part4, pp.499-509. → PDF

*Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock
sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka,
Japan, by the ETAS model, *Geophysical
Research Letters*, Vol.33, No.1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

*Geophysical Research Letters*, Vol.33, No.10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Tanemura, M. and Ogata, Y. (1981). Statistical modeling
for spatial point patterns and its application to the ecology of territory (in Japanese),
*Suri-Kagaku** (Mathematical
Sciences)*, No.213, pp.11-16.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1981).
Estimation of interaction potentials of spatial point patterns through the
maximum likelihood procedure, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical
Mathematics*, Vol.33, B, pp.315-338. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984). Likelihood analysis of
spatial point patterns, *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B*,
Vol.46, No.3, pp.496-518. →PDF

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1987).
Likelihood Analysis for Gibbsian Point Patterns (in Japanese), *Proceedings
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics* (*Tokei Suri*), Vol.35,
No.2, pp.257-274.

Ogata, Y. (1989). A Monte Carlo method for high
dimensinal integration, *Numerische Mathematik*, Vol.55, pp.137-157. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1990). A Monte Carlo
method for an objective Bayesian procedure, *Annals of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.42, No.3, pp.403-433. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Goodness-of-fit of Bayesian models by
the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by Besag, J., York, J. and
Mollie, A., *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.43,
No.1, pp.25-32. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1992). Contribution to
the Invited Discussion on Geyer and Thompsons' Paper, *Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society B*, Vol.54, No.3, p.693. → PDF

Mase, S., Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1992). Staistics
for spatial point patterns: its theory and applications, *Sugaku-Exposition*,
the Mathematics Society of Japan, Vol.44, No.3, pp.193-204. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1995). Markov Chain Monte
Carlo integration through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood
computation of Bayesian models, *Bulletin of the International Statistical
Institute*, Vol.56, Book4, pp.1873-1891.

Ogata, Y. (1996). Evaluation of spatial Bayesian models -
Two computational methods, *Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference*,
Vol.51, pp.1-18. → PDF

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999).
Improvements of the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial
statistical models, *J. Computational and Graphical Statistics*, Vol.8,
No.3, pp.510-530. → PDF

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001). Comparison of two methods
for calculating the partition functions of various spatial statistical models, *Australian
and New Zealand Journal of Statistics*, Vol.43, pp.47-65. → PDF

Inagaki, N. and Ogata, Y. (1975). The weak convergence of
likelihood ratio random fields and its applications, *Annals of the Institute
of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.27, No.3, pp.391-419. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Inagaki, N. (1977).
The weak convergence of the likelihood ratio random fields for Markov
observations, *Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*,
Vol.29, No.2, Part A, pp.165-187. → PDF

Inagaki, N. and Ogata, Y. (1978). The weak convergence of
the likelihood ratio statistics and its applications (in Japanese), *Sugaku*,
Math. Soc. Japan (invited paper), Vol.30, No.3, pp.193-206. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1978). The asymptotic
behavior of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes, *Annals
of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics*, Vol.30, No.2, Part A,
pp.243-261. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1980). Maximum likelihood estimates of
incorrect Markov models for time series and the derivation of AIC, *Journal
of Applied Probability*, Vol.17, pp.59-72. → PDF

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (1984).
On the moments of a self-correcting process, *Journal of Applied Probability*,
Vol.21, pp.335-342. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (1984). Inference for
earthquake models: A self-correcting model, *Stochastic Processes and their
Applications*, Vol.17, pp.337-347.

Ogata, Y. and Yamashina, K. (1986).
Unbiased estimate for *b*-value of magnitude frequency, *Journal of
Physics of the Earth*, Vol.34, pp.187-194.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Comments on "Long-memory models
and their statistical properties (in Japanese) by Yoshihiro Yajima", *J.
Japan Statist. Soc.*, Vol.19, pp.237-238.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Evaluation of
probability forecasts of events, invited discussion as a commentary on *Forecasting
Earthquakes and Earthquake Risk* by Prof. D. Vere-Jones, *International
Journal of Forecasting*, Vol.11, pp.539-541.
→ PDF

Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1996). Statistical
discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters, *Geophysical
Journal International*, Vol.127, pp.17-30. → PDF

*Journal Geophysical Research*, Vol.102, No.B2, pp.2857-2873.*
*

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green,
A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective
incidence data, *Scandinavian Journal of Statistics*, Vol.27, No.3, pp.415-432. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1972). On the Simple β-automorphism and its transverse, *Science Reports of the Tokyo
Kyoiku Daigaku, Section A*, Vol.12, No.316, pp.25-32.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Comments on
"Long-memory models and their statistical properties (in Japanese) by
Yoshihiro Yajima", *J. Japan Statist. Soc.*, Vol.19, pp.237-238.

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical
principles for seismologists, *International Handbook of Earthquake and
Engineering Seismology*, International Association of Seismology and Physics
of Earth's Interior, Vol.81B, pp.1573-1586.

*Journal of Geophysical Research*,
Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

*Journal of Geophysical Research*, Vol.109, No.B4, B04305,
doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006).
Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in
an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, *Physical Review, E*, Vol.73, 046134,
doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134. → PDF