List of Papers by Yosihiko Ogata

Recently published papers
Unpublished Papers
Statistical analysis for point processes
Statistical seismology
Spatial statistics
Bayesian modelling
Applications of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
Inference for stochastic processes
Others

Updated on 12 December 2024 　

Recently published papers

Ogata, Y. (2024). How the ETAS models were created, used, and evolved -- Personal views and perspectives, Annals of Geophysics, Vol.67, No.4, pp.S428, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-9153, Published: 31 October 2024.

Ogata, Y. (2024). Estimating Real Seismicity Rates from Nonhomogeneously Recorded Earthquake Catalogs, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.95, No.6, pp.3604-3616, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240153, November 2024. (First Online: 08 October 2024)

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2024). Non‐Stationary ETAS Model: How It Works for External Forcing, Seismological Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240166. (First Online: 29 August 2024)

Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2024). Inverse analysis of seismic activity rate changes for severely incomplete sequences: comparison of aftershock activity patterns immediately following the 2023 M6.5 and 2024 M7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquakes. Earth Planets Space 76, 112. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02057-w. (Published: 23 August 2024)

Ogata, Y. (2024). How to forecast probability of consecutive large earthquakes, Seismological Society of Japan Monograph, “How can life-size seismology benefit society? (in Japanese), No.7, pp.20-23, April 2024.

Ogata, Y. (2024). Analysis of seismic activity in near the Tokara Islands and the Torishima Island taking missing rates of earthquakes into account, (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.111(10-4), pp.497-504, March 2024. →(Vol.111 (10-4))

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2024). Interpretation of the course of the Noto Peninsula earthquake swarm and some anomalous activities before and after major earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.111(11-12), pp.559-568, March 2024. →(Vol.111(11-12))

Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2024). Estimation of actual activity rate changes from earthquake catalogs with systematic missing measurements: Aftershock activity of the M6.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.111(6-2), pp. 292-298, March 2024. → (Vol.111(6-2))

Ogata, Y. (2024). Experiments in Prediction of Crustal Activity (1) — Short-term Probability Prediction and Evaluation of Inland Earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.111(10-6), pp.584-588, March 2024. → (Vol.111(10-6))

Hainzl, S., Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2024). Aftershock forecasts based on incomplete earthquake catalogs: ETASI model application to the 2023 SE Türkiye earthquake sequence, Geophysical Journal International, 2024;, ggae006, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggae006. (Published: 05 January 2024)

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2023). Prediction of crustal activity: (2) prediction of crustal activity - Space-time features of the Noto Peninsula swarm activity and the May 5, 2023 earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.110(10-6), pp.443-450, September 2023. → (Vol.110(10-6))

Ogata, Y.and Kumazawa, T. (2023). Earthquakes in Turkey on February 6, 2023 (UTC) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.110(10-3), pp.426-431, September 2023. → (Vol.110(10-3))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2023). Cluster-based foreshock discrimination model with flexible time horizon and mainshock magnitudes, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol.10, Article number:20, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00548-0, April 2023.

Ogata, Y. (2023). Prediction and validation of long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.109(12-9), pp.591-598, March 2023. → (Vol.109(12-9))

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2023). Regional features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model for earthquake swarm activity in Noto Peninsula - Continuation Report 2 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.109(7-2), pp.321-325, March 2023. → (Vol.109(7-2))

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2022). Regional features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model for earthquake swarm activity in Noto Peninsula (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.108(7-3), pp.310-313, September 2022. → (Vol.108 (7-3))

Ogata, Y. (2022). Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.74, Issue1, Article110, doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01669-4, December 2022. (Published: 18 July 2022) (Open Access)

Ogata, Y. (2022). Prediction and validation of short- medium- and long-term earthquake probabilities using a hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) models, etc. (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.107(12-8), pp.547-555, March 2022. → (Vol.107(12-8))

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2022). Changing features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model in regional earthquake swarm activity of the Noto Peninsula (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.107(7-4), pp.292-296, March 2022. → (Vol.107(7-4))

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2021). The ETAS Model in Statistical Seismology: Its History, Recent Developments, and Influences on General Hawkes Processes (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.69, No.2, pp.145-163, December 2021.

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2021). Earthquake activity near the border of Nagano, Gifu and Fukui prefectures (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.106(7-2), pp.332-336, September 2021. → (Vol.106(7-2))

Ogata, Y. (2021). Short-, medium-, long-term and background-rate forecasts based on a hierarchical space-time ETAS model: Towards the development of automated forecasts (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.105(12-10), pp.493-499, March 2021. →(Vol.105(12-10))

Ueda, T., Kato, A., Ogata, Y. and Yamaya, L. (2021). Spatial Variations in Seismicity Characteristics in and Around the Source Region of the 2019 Yamagata-Oki Earthquake, Japan, Earth, Planets and Space, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-020-01325-9, February 2021. (Open Access)

Ogata, Y. (2021) Visualizing heterogeneities of earthquake hypocenter catalogs: modeling, analysis, and compensation, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, Vol.8, ArticleNo.8, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-020-00401-8, January 2021.

Ogata, Y. (2020). ETAS Models and Infectious Diseases (in Japanese), Earthquake Journal, Vol.70, pp.42-43, December 2020. (Commentary)

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2020). Wide-area seismicity anomalies before the 2011 Tohoku–Oki earthquake, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.223, Issue2, pp.1304-1312, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa356, November 2020.

Iwata, T. and Ogata, Y. (2020). Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the a-value of the Gutenberg-Richter Law (in Japanese), Zisin, Vol.73, pp.93-96, doi:10.4294/zisin.2020-1, October 2020.

Ogata, Y. and Omi, T. (2020). Statistical Monitoring and Early Forecasting of the Earthquake Sequence: Case Studies after the 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley Earthquake, California, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.110, No.4, pp.1781–1798, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200023, August 2020. (First Online 26 May 2020)

Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J., Jiang, C., Guo, Y., Gao, Z., Gao, S., Ogata, Y. and Song, X. (2020). Nonstationary background seismicity rate and evolution of stress changes in the Changning salt mining and shale-gas hydraulic fracturing region, Sichuan Basin, China, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.91, No.4, pp.2170-2181, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200092, July 2020.

Ogata, Y. (2020). Summary of “Trials of experimental earthquake forecasts #06: Implementation and evaluation of real-time short-term forecasts” (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.103(12-6), pp.352-355, March 2020. → (Vol.103(12-6))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Foreshock discrimination models for various prediction schemes and evaluation of their predictive performance (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.103(12-8), pp.361-366, March 2020. → (Vol.103(12-8))

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2020). Detection of swarm activities by nonstationary ETAS model and their predictability based on geodetic data (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.103(12-12), pp.378-384, March 2020. → (Vol.103 (12-12))

Ogata, Y. (2020). Short- and medium-term forecasts using hierarchical spatiotemporal ETAS model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.103(12-13), pp.385-387, March 2020. → (Vol.103 (12-13))

Ogata, Y. (2019). The Development of Statistical Seismology: A Personal Experience and View (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.67, No.2, pp.215-228, December 2019.

Ogata, Y. (2019). Cluster analysis of spatial point patterns: posterior distribution of parents inferred from offspring, Japanese Journal of Statistics and Data Science, https://doi.org/10.1007/s42081-019-00065-9, 11 December 2019. (Published online)

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2019). Characteristics of seismic activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.71, ArticleNo.130, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-019-1102-y, November 2019. (Open Access)

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2019). High-resolution 3D earthquake forecasting beneath the greater Tokyo area, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.71, ArticleNo.113, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-019-1086-7, November 2019. (Open Access)

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Modelling and forecasting aftershocks can be improved by incorporating rupture geometry in the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084775, October 2019. (First Published 17 October 2019).

Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake, Nature Communications, Vol.10, ArticleNo.4051, pp.1-11, doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4, September 2019.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2019). High resolution space-time model forecasting 3D seismicity beneath Kanto Region (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.102(4-5), pp.123-129, September 2019. → (Vol.102 (4-5))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2019). Characteristics of aftershock activity of the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.101(2-7), pp.73-77, March 2019. → (Vol.101 (2-7))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y. Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K. (2019). Real-time aftershock forecasting for the 2018 Northern Osaka and Iburi earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.101(8-18), pp.407-410, March 2019. → (Vol.101 (8-18))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2018). Measuring seismicity diversity before and after the Kumamoto earthquake by point process models (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.100(12-6), pp.397-404, September 2018. → (Vol.100(12-6))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2018). Inference of a common aperiodi　city parameter and Bayesian forecast in the BPT model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.100(11-2), pp.350-355, September 2018. → (Vol.100(11-2))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K., and Aihara, K. (2018). Implementation of a Real-Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.90, No.1, pp.242-250, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180213, January 2019. (Published Online 31 October 2018)

Ogata, Y. (2018). Comment on “A Review of Self-Exciting Spatiotemporal Point Process and Their Applications” by Alex Reinhart, Statistical Science, Vol.33, No.3, pp.319-322, doi:10.1214/18-STS650, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1534147222, August 2018.

Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D., Mak, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Hirata, N., Liukis, M., Maechling, P., Strader, A., Taroni, M., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J. and Zhuang, J. (2018). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.89, No.4, pp.1305-1313, doi:10.1785/0220180053. (PDF Available June 2018)

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2018). Exploring magnitude forecasting of the next earthquake, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.89, No.4, pp.1298-1304, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180034, July 2018. (Early Publication 13 June 2018)

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Foreshock Discrimination Model Based on Magnitudes and Spatio-temporal Information and its Predictive Performance (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.99(12-9), pp.446-451, March 2018. → (Vol.99(12-9))

Ogata, Y. (2017). Magnitude forecasts of the next earthquake and evaluation (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.99(12-10), pp.452-455, March 2018. → (Vol.99(12-10))

Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock – mainshock – aftershock sequence, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.212, Issue1, pp.1-13, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx407, January 2018. (Advance Access publication 22 September 2017)

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). Measuring seismicity diversity and anomalies by point process models: Case studies before and after the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.69, Article 169, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-017-0756-6, 21 December 2017.

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). Aftershock analysis of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.98, pp.386-391, September 2017. →(Vol.98 (10-3))

Nomura,　S. and Ogata, Y. （2017）. BPT model forecast based on the recent paleoearthquake catalog (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.98, pp.443-448, September 2017. →(Vol.98 (11-5))

Ogata, Y. (2017). Forecasting of a Large Earthquake: An Outlook of the Research, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.88, No.4, pp.1117-1126, doi:10.1785/0220170006, July/August 2017.

Ogata, Y. (2017). Statistics of Earthquake Activity: Models and Methods for Earthquake Predictability Studies, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol.45, pp.497-527, doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-063016-015918. (Volume publication date June 2017)

Ishibe, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2017). Testing the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes, Geoscience Letters, Vol.4, No.5, doi:10.1186/s40562-017-0070-y, 6 March 2017. (Open Access)

Ogata, Y. (2017). On spontaneous seismicity rate in Japan inland (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.97, pp.9-12, March 2017. →(Vol.97 (1-3))

Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H., Omi, T., Nomura, S., Kumazawa, T. and Aihara, K. (2017). Seismic activity before and after the 2016 Central Tottori Prefecture earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.97, pp.368-374, March 2017. →(Vol.97 (9-7))

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Wang, T. (2017). Data completeness of the Kumamoto earthquake sequence in the JMA catalog and its influence on the estimation of the ETAS parameters, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.69, Article 36, doi:10.1186/s40623-017-0620-8, February 2017. (Open Access)

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K. (2016). Automatic aftershock forecasting: A test using real-time seismicity data in Japan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.106, No.6, pp.2450-2458, doi:10.1785/0120160100, December 2016.

Nomura, S. Ogata, Y., Uchida, N. and Matsu’ura, M. (2016). Spatiotemporal variations of interplate slip rates in northeast Japan inverted from recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.208, Issue 1, pp.468-481, doi:10.1093/gji/ggw395, October 2016. → Open Access

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kato, A. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical analysis of the swarm activity induced by the 2016 April earthquake of M6.1 at the southeast off the coast of the Mie Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.304-310, September 2016. →(Vol.96 (8-5))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of seismicity in Kyushu District before the occurrence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes of M6.5 and M7.3 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.642-651, September 2016. →(Vol.96 (12-21))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2016). Foreshock forecast probabilities of the M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.652-657, September 2016. →(Vol.96 (12-22))

Ogata, Y. (2016). Provisional calculations of the probability forecast of the Kumamoto M7.3 earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.658-661, September 2016. →(Vol.96 (12-23))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Aihara, K. (2016). Probability aftershock forecasting of the M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto earthquakes of 2016 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.96, pp.662-667, September 2016. →(Vol.96 (12-24))

Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of aftershock sequences: a case study of the 2015 Mw7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.68, Article 44, doi: 10.1186/s40623-016-0410-8, March 2016. → Open Access

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Background rates of swarm earthquakes that are synchronized with volumetric strain changes, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.442, pp.51-60, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2016.02.049. (Available online: March 2016)

Ogata, Y. (2015). Monitoring seismicity anomalies by statistical models (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.94, pp.412-423, September 2015. →(Vol.94 (12-8))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.94, pp.136-144, September 2015. →(Vol.94 (5-1))

Ogata, Y. (2015). On the Special Topic “Statistical Seismology Research on Earthquake Predictability (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.1-2, June 2015. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2015). Stochastic Prediction of Earthquakes --- A Strategy for the Research (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.3-27, June 2015. → PDF

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2015). Evaluation Methods of Earthquake Forecasts (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.63, No.1, pp.29-44, June 2015. → PDF

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2015). Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol.120, Issue4, pp.2561-2578, doi:10.1002/2014JB011456, April 2015.

Ogata, Y. (2015). Evaluating predictive ability of background seismicity, aftershocks and induced earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.93, pp.415-426, March 2015. → (Vol.93 (12-7))

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2014). Comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock forecasting in observed and simulated earthquake catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.119, Issue 11, pp.8457-8477, doi:10.1002/2014JB011250, November 2014.

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Nonstationary ETAS models for nonstandard earthquakes, Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol.8, No.3, pp.1825-1852, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS759, http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1414091236, September 2014.

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Nadeau, R.M. (2014). Space-time model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of recurrence intervals on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.119, Issue9, pp.7092-7122, doi:10.1002/2013JB010558, September 2014.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Probability aftershock forecasting by the ETAS model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.92, pp.386-389, September 2014. → PDF(Vol.92 (11-2))

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2014). Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.66, pp.687-702, doi:10.1007/s10463-013-0431-z, August 2014.

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks after the main shock (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.66-71. → PDF(Vol.91 (3-2))

Ogata, Y. (2014). The aftershock activity of M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in and around outer-rise region (2011.3.11–2013.10.26) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.72-76. → PDF(Vol.91 (3-3))

Ogata, Y. (2014). Aftershock activity of the 13 April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 in Awaji Island (2011.4.13–2013.11.8) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.267-268. → PDF(Vol.91 (8-3))

Ogata, Y. (2014). Probablistic forecasts of large earthquakes using statistical models (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.91, pp.387-395. → PDF(Vol.91 (12-6))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.41, pp. 850-857, doi:10.1002/2013GL058958.

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, Issue12, pp.6165-6182, doi:10.1002/2013JB010259.

Ogata, Y. (2013). A prospect of earthquake prediction research, Statistical Science, Vol.28, No.4, pp.521-541, doi:10.1214/13-STS439. → PDF

Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and analysis of repeating earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from July 15, 1993 till March 11, 2011 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.49-53. → PDF(Vol.90 (2-2))

Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and statistical analysis of repeating earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from July 15, 1993 till March 10, 2011, on emphasis of before and after major earthquakes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.54-57. → PDF(Vol.90 (2-3))

Ogata, Y. (2013). Aftershock activity of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (2011.3.11 – 2013.2.2) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.104-108. → PDF(Vol.90 (3-2))

Ogata, Y. (2013). Long-term aftershock activity of the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 until the 13 April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 near Awaji Island (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.90, pp.352-355. → PDF(Vol.90 (8-3))

Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock, Nature Scientific Reports, Scientific Reports 3, Article No.2218, doi:10.1038/srep02218. (June 2013) → PDF(srep02218, Supplementary Information), HTML

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. and Zhuang, J. (2013). Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.103, No.3, pp.1692-1708, doi:10.1785/0120120063.

Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y. (2013). A non-stationary epidemic type aftershock sequence model for seismicity prior to the December 26, 2004 M9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands mega-earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.118, pp.1-14, doi:10.1002/jgrb.50068. (Published online 26 February 2013)

Ogata, Y. (2013). Retrospective analysis of the long-term prediction of seismic activities that are induced by the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.89, pp.278-281. → PDF(Vol.89 (8-2))

Ogata, Y. (2013). Seismicity anomaly that preceded the 2004 Sumatra earthquake M9.1 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.89, pp.432-440. → PDF(Vol.89 (12-11))

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y. (2012). Statistical analysis for the change of seismicity after 25 March 1998 the Balleny earthquake (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.34, No.9, pp.529-545.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2012). Prospective foreshock forecast experiment during the last 17 years, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.191, Issue3, pp.1237–1244, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05645.x.→ PDF

Ogata, Y. (2012). Long- and intermediate space-time forecast in Japanese Islands induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.88, pp.35-39. → PDF(Vol.88 (1-6))

Ogata, Y. (2012). Long-term probability forecast of the regional seismicity that was induced by the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.88, pp.92-99. → PDF(Vol.88 (3-2))

Ogata, Y. (2012). Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.88, pp.100-103. → PDF(Vol.88 (3-3))

Nanjo, K.Z., Tsuruoka, H., Yokoi, S., Ogata, Y., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan, T.H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Schorlemmer, D., Shiomi, K. and Zhuang, J. (2012). Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake: first results, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.191, Issue2, pp.653–658, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05626.x. → PDF

Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2012). Maximum pseudo-likelihood analyses of clustering point processes and some properties of Palm intensity (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Vol.60, No.1, pp.37-55. → PDF(pp.37-55)

Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist, E.L. (2012). Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.188, Issue3, pp.1425–1440, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05343.x. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2012). Tohoku earthquake aftershock activity and triggered activity near Matsumoto (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.87, pp.546-553. → PDF(Vol.87 (12-13))

Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational probability foreshock forecasts up until Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.86, pp.123-125. → PDF(Vol.86 (3-18))

Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2011). Tohoku earthquake: aftershock activity and triggered activities in the eastern Honshu area (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.86, pp.126-133. → PDF(Vol.86 (3-19))

Ogata, Y. (2011). Preshock activity and quiescence for long-term seismic activity in and around Japan (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.86, pp.134-141. → PDF(Vol.86 (3-20))

Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Statistical Analysis Of Seismicity In A Wide Region Around The 1998 Mw 8.1 Balleny Islands Earthquake In The Antarctic Plate, Polar Science, Vol.5, pp.421-431, doi:10.1016/j.polar.2011.08.002. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2011). Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake of M6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.186, Issue1, pp.331-348, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05033.x. → PDF
Erratum Geophysical Journal International, Vol.188, Issue 3, pp.1454, March 2012, Article first published online: 27 January 2012, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05306.x/abstract.

Nomura, S., Ogata, Y., Komaki, F. and Toda, S. (2011). Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.116, B04315, doi:10.1029/2010JB007917.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.63, No.3, pp.217-229, doi:10.5047/eps.2010.09.001.

Ogata, Y. (2011). Summary of intensive discussion subject for “Seismic activity” (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.85, pp.429-432. → PDF(Vol.85 (12-1))

Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational Probability Forecast of Foreshocks (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.85, pp.440-444. → PDF(Vol.85 (12-4))

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Evaluation of warning forecasts by a gambling score (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.85, pp.451-452. → PDF(Vol.85 (12-7))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010). Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.115, B10312, doi:10.1029/2010JB007567.

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Aseismic slip scenario for transient crustal deformations around the southern fault before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.84, pp.93-97. → PDF(Vol.84 (3-5))

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010). A Bayesian predictor based on prior distributions of BPT model with slip rates (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.84, pp.483-488. → PDF(Vol.84 (11-11))

Ogata, Y. (2010). Anomalies of seismic activity and transient crustal deformations preceding the 2005 M7.0 earthquake west of Fukuoka, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.167, No.8-9, pp.1115-1127, doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0096-y. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010). Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer rise normal fault the 2007 great earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.115, B06318, doi:10.1029/2009JB006777.

Ogata, Y. (2010). Space-time heterogeneity in aftershock activity, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.181, Issue 3, pp.1575-1592, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04542.x. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2010). Earthquake forecast in Japanese Islands based on location-dependent b-values and space-time ETAS model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.83, pp.5-8. → PDF(Vol.83 (1-2))

Ogata, Y. (2010). Seismicity changes in the central and western district of Shizuoka Prefecture before the August 2009 Earthquake of M6.5 at Suruga Bay and its aftershock activity (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.83, pp.231-236. → PDF(Vol.83 (6-4))

Adelfio, G. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Hybrid kernel estimates of space–time earthquake occurrence rates using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.62, No.1, pp.127-143, doi:10.1007/s10463-009-0268-7. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2009). A correction method of routinely determined hypocenter coordinates in far offshore region (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.82, pp.91-93. → PDF(Vol.82 (3-3))

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2009). Seismicity changes in northern Tohoku District before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.82, pp.96-105. → PDF(Vol.82 (3-5))

Llenos, A.L., McGuire, J.J. and Ogata, Y. (2009). Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.281, Issues1-2, pp.59-69, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.02.011. → PDF

Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M. K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., and Jackson, D. D. (2008). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: Their influences on foreshock probabilities, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.

Tanaka, U., Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2008). Simulation and estimation of the Neyman-Scott type spatial cluster models, Computer Science Monograph, No.34, pp.1-44, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2008). On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip preceding the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.80, pp.562-567. → PDF(Vol.80 (12-5))

Ogata, Y. (2008). On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous seismicity and crustal changes around the source, and the normal feature of the aftershock activity (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.79, pp.345-352. → PDF(Vol.79 (7-3))

Ogata, Y. (2008). Occurrence of the large earthquakes during 1978~2007 compared with the selected seismicity zones by the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake Prediction (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.79, pp.623-625. → PDF(Vol.79 (12-1))

Tanaka, U., Ogata, Y. and Stoyan, D. (2008). Parameter estimation and model selection for Neyman-Scott point processes, Biometrical Journal, Vol.50, Issue1, pp.43-57, doi:10.1002/bimj.200610339. → PDF

Wakaura, M and Ogata, Y. (2007). A time series analysis on the seasonality of air temperature anomalies, Meteorological Applications, Vol.14, Issue4, pp.425-434, doi: 10.1002/met.41.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.112, B10301, doi:10.1029/2006JB004697.

Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity in space and time measured by the ETAS model and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.78, pp.60-66. → PDF(Vol.78 (2-3))

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity and crustal movement in and around the Noto Peninsula before the 2007 earthquake of M6.9 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.78, pp.399-404. → PDF(Vol.78 (7-11))

Nanjo, K.Z., Enescu, B., Shcherbakov, R., Turcotte, D.L., Iwata, T. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Decay of aftershock activity for Japanese earthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.112, No.B8, B08309, doi:10.1029/2006JB004754.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.77, pp.452-459. → PDF(Vol.77 (11-4))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, Tectonophysics, Vol.424, pp.291-306, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.76, pp.590-597. → PDF(Vol.76 (11-1))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.28, No.7, pp.470-474.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.33, No.10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review, E, Vol. 73, 046134, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Statistical Analysis of Seismicity - Updated Version (SASeis2006), Computer Science Monograph, No.33, pp.1-28, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Zhuang, J. (2006). TIMSAC84: Statistical Analysis of Series of Events (TIMSAC84-SASE) Version 2, Computer Science Monograph, No.32, pp.1-16, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the 16th August 2005 interplate earthquake of M7.2 off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, and the aftershock activity of the M7.2 earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.75, pp.129-131. → PDF(Vol.75 (3-6))

Ogata, Y. (2006). Aftershock activities of recent conspicuous earthquakes in and near Japan (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.75, pp.593-597. → PDF(Vol.75 (11-4))

Ogata, Y. (2006). On conspicuous aftershock activity relative to the background seismicity in the active regions (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.75, pp.598-601. → PDF(Vol.75 (11-5))

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol.413, pp.13-23. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.33, No.1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley, A., Turner, R., Moller, J. and Hazelton, M., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.67, Part 5, pp.661, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x. → PDF

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes, Springer Lecture Note in Statistics: Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models (Baddeley, A., Gregori, P., Mateu, J., Stoica, R. and Stoyan, D.), Springer-Verlag, New York, 185, pp.276-292.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.74, pp.83-88. → PDF(Vol.74 (2-6))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity changes in and around Kyushu District before the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 in the western offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.74, pp523-528. → PDF(Vol.74 (10-18))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock (M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.74, pp.529-535. → PDF(Vol.74 (10-19))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Ogata, Y. (2005). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-term seismicity anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.73, pp.327-331. → PDF(Vol.73 (7-4))

Ogata, Y. (2005). On the aftershock activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the Kii Peninsula, and constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and space-time pattern of the aftershocks (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.73, pp.495-498. → PDF(Vol.73 (8-7))

Ogata, Y. (2005). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.73, pp.666-669. → PDF(Vol.73 (11-10))

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.162, pp.1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the northern Japan relating to the 2003 Tokachi earthquake of M8.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.72, pp.110-117. → PDF(Vol.72 (2-7))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.72, pp.631-637. → PDF(Vol.72 (11-7))

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the 2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.71, pp.260-267. → PDF(Vol.71 (2-12))

Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the large interplate earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.71, pp.268-278. → PDF(Vol.71 (2-13))

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in western Japan (1995-2001) detected by a statistical space-time model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.70, pp.361-363. → PDF(Vol.70 (6-3))

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai Trough (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.70, pp.378-383. → PDF(Vol.70 (7-3))

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics (JRSSC), Vol.52, Part4, pp.499-509. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.25, No.10, pp.783-787.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol.81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter 82.

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical principles for seismologists, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol.81B, pp.1573-1586.

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.108, No. B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.107, No.B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 97, No.458, pp.369-380. → PDF

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2002). Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for Markov random fields on lattice, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.54, No.1, pp.1-18. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M≧4) around Beijing area based on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.66, pp.562-570 (2001). → PDF(Vol.66 (10-4))

Ogata, Y. (2001). Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, Festscrift Volume for Professor Vere-Jones, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol.38A, pp.202-212. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English summary and captions), Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography), Vol.110, No.4, pp. 602-614. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.106, No.B5, pp. 8729-8744.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001). Comparison of two methods for calculating the partition functions of various spatial statistical models, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol.43, pp. 47-65. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Vol. 27, No.3, pp. 415-432. → PDF

Unpublished Papers

Ogata, Y. and Tanaka, U., Searching for locations of parents from superposed clusters, ISM Research Memorandum, No.1175, pp.1-18.

Ogata, Y., Seismicity shadow and stress shadow in aftershock activity, in preparation.

Ogata, Y., Preseismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: Case studies of the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of M6.8, ISM Research Memorandum, No.1109, pp.1-51.

Tanaka, Ushio and Ogata, Y., Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes, ISM Research Memorandum, No.1106.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y., A new transformation formula to search the MLE by Markov chain Monte Carlo Method, submitted.

Statistical Analysis for Point Processes

Ogata, Y. (1978). The asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.30, No.2, PartA, pp.243-261. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1981). On Lewis' simulation method for point processes, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, Vol.IT-27, pp.23-31.

Nakamura, M., Ogata, Y. and Ohmura, Y. (1981). Evaluation of neuronal spike train data by new methodologies of wave form discrimination and point process analysis, Proceedings of the 7th International CODATA Conference, Pergamon Press, Oxford.

Ogata, Y. (1981). Analysis of series of events - statistical relation of earthquake sequences between certain two different Regions (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Sciences), No.213, pp.30-36.

Ogata, Y. and Akaike, H. (1982). On linear intensity models for mixed doubly stochastic Poisson and self-exciting point processes, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol.44, No.1, pp.102-107. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Akaike, H. and Katsura, K. (1982). The application of linear intensity models to the investigation of causal relations between a point process and another stochastic process, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.34, No.2, B, pp.373-387. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1983). Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol.31, pp.115-124.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Likelihood analysis of point processes and its applications to seismological data, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol.50, Book2, pp.943-961. → PDF

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (1984). On the moments of a self-correcting process, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol.21, pp.335-342. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (1984). Inference for earthquake models: A self-correcting model, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Vol.17, pp.337-347.

Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984) Transition from aftershock to normal activity, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.74, No.5, pp.1757-1765.

Akaike, H., Ozaki, T., Ishiguro, M., Ogata, Y., Kitagawa, G., Tamura, Y., Arahata, E., Katsura, K. and Tamura, R. (1984). Time Series and Control Program Package, TIMSAC-84, Computer Science Monograph, No.22/23, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1986). Point-process models with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in Essays in Time Series and Allied Processes (Papers in honour of E.J. Hannan), Eds. J. Gani and M. B. Priestley, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol.23A, pp.291-310. → PDF

Ozaki, T., Akaike, H., Ogata, Y., Ishiguro, M. and Kitagawa, G., Time Series Analysis, Textbook for University of the Air, Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK) (1988).

Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, Journal of American Statistical Association, Application, Vol.83, No.401, pp.9-27. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1989). Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, Techtonophysics, Vol.169, pp.159-174.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Some statistical methods for modelling of point process data, Proceedings on Stochastic methods for Biological Intelligence, Ed. M. K. Habib, Plenum Publishing Company.

Ogata, Y. and Abe, K. (1991). Some statistical features of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic activity, International Statistical Review, Vol.59, No.2, 139-161. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1991). Maximum likelihood estimates of the fractal dimension for random spatial patterns, Biometrika, Vol.78, No.3, pp.463-474. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei Suri), Vol.39, No.2, pp.245-256.

Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.97, pp.19845-19871.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.113, pp.727-738. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Matsu'ura, R. S. and Katsura, K. (1993). Fast likelihood computation of epidemic type aftershock-sequence model, Geophysical Reseach Letters, Vol.20, No.19, pp.2143-2146.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English brief summary), Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan, Vol.22, No.3 (Special issue for 60th anniversary of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp.413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1994). Seismological applications of statistical methods for point-process modelling, Proc. of the First U.S./Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An Informational Approach, Bozdogan, H. (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp.137-163.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and magnitude, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.22, No.8, pp 993-996.

Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1995). Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.121, pp.233-254. → PDF

Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura, R. S. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol.43, pp.1-33.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Statistical models for seismic activity (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Science), No.389, pp.13-20.

Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer Program Package: Statistical Analysis of Seismicity (SASeis), IASPEI Software Library for Personal Computers, Vol.6, the International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, in collaboration with the American Seismological Society, pp.1-222.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, Journal Geophysical Research, Vol.102, No.B2, pp.2857-2873.

Ohsuga, S., Ogata, Y. and Tamura, Y. (1997). An analysis of afterpulse in photomultiplier tube: Application of point process model to occurrence-time data of photomultiplier dark pulses, Nuclear Instruments & Methods, Section A, Vol.A384, pp.477-481. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1997). Aftershock statistics and the ETAS model for measuring seismicity (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol.45, No.1, pp.139-143. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Quiescence Relative to the ETAS Model (in Japanese), in Special Issue on Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan), 2nd series, Vol.50, pp.115-127. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.50, No.2, pp.379-402. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Seismicity analyses through point-process modelling: A review, in Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning M. Wyss, K. Shimazaki and A. Ito eds. Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.155, pp.471-507. → PDF

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol.47, No.1, pp.223-241. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times to of paleoearthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.104, No.B8, pp.17995-18014.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999). Improvements of the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models, J. Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol.8, No.3, pp.510-530. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.106, No.B5, pp.8729-8744.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol.97, No.458, pp.369-380. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.107, No.B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14).

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.25, No.10, pp.783-787.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol.413, pp.13-23. → PDF

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review, E, Vol.73, 046134, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.33, No.10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Statistical Seismology

Ogata, Y. (1983). Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol.31, pp.115-124.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Likelihood analysis of point processes and its applications to seismological data, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol.50, Book2, pp.943-961. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984) Transition from aftershock to normal activity, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.74, No.5, pp.1757-1765.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1986). Point-process models with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in Essays in Time Series and Allied Processes (Papers in honour of E.J. Hannan), Eds. Gani, J. and Priestley, M. B., Journal of Applied Probability, Vol.23A, pp.291-310. → PDF

Ogata, Y. and Yamashina, K. (1986). Unbiased estimate for b-value of magnitude frequency, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol.34, pp.187-194.

Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol.83, No.401, pp.9-27. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1989). Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, Techtonophysics, Vol.169, pp.159-174.

Inoue, H., Fukao, Y., Tanabe, K. and Ogata, Y. (1990). Whole mantle P-wave travel time tomography, Physics of Earth and Planet's Interiors, Vol.59, pp.294-328. → PDF

Imoto, M., Furukawa, N. and Ogata, Y. (1990). Three-dimensional spatial variations of b-value in the Kanto Area, Japan (in Japanese), Zisin (2), Vol.43, pp.321-326. → PDF

Ogata ,Y. and Abe, K. (1991). Some statistical features of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic activity, International Statistical Review, Vol.59, No.2, pp.139-161. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K. (1991). 3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the Kanto District, Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.104, pp.135-146. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.97, pp.19845-19871.

Ogata, Y., Matsu'ura, R. S. and Katsura, K. (1993). Fast likelihood computation of epidemic type aftershock-sequence model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.20, No.19, pp.2143-2146.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English summary), Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan, Vol.22, No.3 (Special issue for 60th anniversary of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp.413-463.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and magnitude, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.22, No.8, pp.993-996.

Ogata, Y., Utsu ,T. and Katsura, K. (1995). Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.121, pp.233-254.

Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura, R. S. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol.43, pp.1-33.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Statistical models for seismic activity (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Science), No.389, pp.13-20.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Evaluation of probability forecasts of events, invited discussion as a commentary on "Forecasting Earthquakes and Earthquake Risk" by Prof. D. Vere-Jones, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.11, pp.539-541. → PDF

Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1996). Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.127, pp.17-30. → PDF

Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer program package: Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity (SASeis), invited and accepted for IASPEI Software Library for Personal Computers, the International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, in collaboration with the American Seismological Society, Vol.6, pp.13-94.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, Journal Geophysical Research, Vol.102, No.B2, pp.2857-2873.

Ogata, Y. (1997). Aftershock statistics and the ETAS model for measuring seismicity (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol.45, No.1, pp.139-143. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.50, No.2, pp.379-402. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1998). A research proposal statistical earthquake prediction (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, No.20, pp.132-135.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Real time discrimination of forshocks (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, No.24, pp.167-173.

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters (in Japanese), (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol.47, No.1, pp.223-241. → PDF

Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times to of paleoearthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research., Vol.104, No.B8, pp.17995-18014.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.106, No B5, pp.8729-8744.