List of Papers by Yosihiko Ogata

Updated on 17 February 2010

Recently published papers

Ogata, Y. and Toda. S. (2010). Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer-rise normal fault the 2007 great earthquake, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2009JB006777, in press.

Adelfio, G. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Hybrid kernel estimates of space–time earthquake occurrence rates using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.62, No.1, pp.127-143, doi:10.1007/s10463-009-0268-7.

Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda. S. (2009). Seismicity changes in northern Tohoku District before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.82, pp.96-105.

Ogata, Y. (2009). A correction method of routinely determined hypocenter coordinates in far offshore region (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.82, pp.91-93.

Llenos, A.L., McGuire, J.J. and Ogata, Y. (2009). Modeling seismic swarms triggered by aseismic transients, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol.281, Issues1-2, pp.59-69, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2009.02.011.

Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M. K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., and Jackson, D. D. (2008). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: Their influences on foreshock probabilities, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.

Tanaka, U., Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2008). Simulation and estimation of the Neyman-Scott type spatial cluster models, Computer Science Monograph, No.34, pp.1-44, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.

Ogata, Y. and Toda. S. (2008). On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip preceding the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.80, pp.562-567.

Ogata, Y. (2008). Occurrence of the large earthquakes during 1978~2007 compared with the selected seismicity zones by the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake Prediction (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.79, pp.623-625.

Ogata, Y. (2008). On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous seismicity and crustal changes around the source, and the normal feature of the aftershock activity (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol.79, pp.345-352.

Tanaka, U., Ogata, Y. and Stoyan, D. (2008). Parameter estimation and model selection for Neyman-Scott point processes, Biometrical Journal, Vol.50, Issue 1, pp. 43-57, doi:10.1002/bimj.200610339.

Wakaura, M and Ogata, Y. (2007). A time series analysis on the seasonality of air temperature anomalies, Meteorological Applications, Vol.14, Issue4, pp.425-434, doi: 10.1002/met.41.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.112, B10301, doi:10.1029/2006JB004697.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity and crustal movement in and around the Noto Peninsula before the 2007 earthquake of M6.9 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 78, pp.399-404.

Ogata, Y. and Toda. S. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity in space and time measured by the ETAS model and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 78, pp.60-66.

Nanjo, K.Z., Enescu, B., Shcherbakov, R., Turcotte, D.L., Iwata, T. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Decay of aftershock activity for Japanese earthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.112, No.B8, B08309, doi:10.1029/2006JB004754.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 77, pp.452-459.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, Tectonophysics, Vol. 424, pp.291-306, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 76, pp.590-597.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.28, No.7, pp.470-474.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review, E, 73, 046134, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Statistical Analysis of Seismicity - Updated Version (SASeis2006), Computer Science Monograph, No.33, pp.1-28, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Zhuang, J. (2006). TIMSAC84: Statistical Analysis of Series of Events (TIMSAC84-SASE) Version 2, Computer Science Monograph, No.32, pp.1-16, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan

Ogata, Y. (2006). On conspicuous aftershock activity relative to the background seismicity in the active regions (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 75, pp.598-601.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Aftershock activities of recent conspicuous earthquakes in and near Japan (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 75, pp.593-597.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the 16th August 2005 interplate earthquake of M7.2 off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, and the aftershock activity of the M7.2 earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 75, pp.129-131.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, pp.13-23.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley, A., Turner, R., Moller,  J. and Hazelton, M., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol. 67, Part 5, pp.661, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes, Springer Lecture Note in Statistics: Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models (Baddeley, A., Gregori, P., Mateu, J., Stoica, R. and Stoyan, D.), Springer-Verlag, New York, 185, pp.276-292.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock (M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 74, pp. 529-535.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity changes in and around Kyushu District before the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 in the western offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 74, pp.523-528.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 74, pp. 83-88.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 73, pp. 666-669.

Ogata, Y. (2005). On the aftershock activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the Kii Peninsula, and constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and space-time pattern of the aftershocks (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 73, pp. 495-498.

Ogata, Y. (2005). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-term seismicity anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 73, pp. 327-331.

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 162, pp. 1367-1396.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the northern Japan relating to the 2003 Tokachi earthquake of M8.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 72, pp. 110-117.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 72, pp. 631-637.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the large interplate earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 71, pp. 268-278.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the 2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 71, pp. 260-267.

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai Trough (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 70, pp. 378-383.

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in western Japan (1995-2001) detected by a statistical space-time model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 70, pp. 361-363.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics (JRSSC), Vol. 52, Part 4, pp. 499-509.

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol. 25, No. 10, pp. 783-787.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter 82.

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical principles for seismologists, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, pp. 1573-1586.

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, No. B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 97, No. 458, pp. 369-380.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2002). Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for Markov random fields on lattice, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 1-18.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M4) around Beijing area based on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 66, pp. 562-570 (2001).

Ogata, Y. (2001). Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, Festscrift Volume for Professor Vere-Jones, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 38A, pp. 202-212.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English summary and captions), Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography), Vol. 110, No. 4, pp. 602-614.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 106, No. B5, pp. 8729-8744.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001). Comparison of two methods for calculating the partition functions of various spatial statistical models, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol. 43, pp. 47-65.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,  Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 415-432.


Unpublished Papers

Ogata, Y., Seismicity shadow and stress shadow in aftershock activity, in preparation.

Ogata, Y., Preseismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: Case studies of the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of M6.8, ISM Research Memorandum, No.1109, pp.1-51.

Tanaka, Ushio and Ogata, Y., Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes, ISM Research Memorandum, No.1106.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y., A new transformation formula to search the MLE by Markov chain Monte Carlo Method, submitted.


Statistical Analysis for Point Processes

Ogata, Y. (1978). The asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 30, No. 2, A, pp. 243-261.

Ogata, Y. (1981). On Lewis' simulation method for point processes, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, Vol. IT-27, pp. 23-31.

Nakamura, M., Ogata, Y. and Ohmura, Y. (1981). Evaluation of neuronal spike train data by new methodologies of wave form discrimination and point process analysis, Proceedings of the 7th International CODATA Conference, Pergamon Press, Oxford.

Ogata, Y. (1981). Analysis of series of events - statistical relation of earthquake sequences between certain two different Regions (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Sciences), No. 213, pp. 30-36.

Ogata, Y. and Akaike, H. (1982). On linear intensity models for mixed doubly stochastic Poisson and self-exciting point processes, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 102-107.

Ogata, Y., Akaike, H. and Katsura, K. (1982). The application of linear intensity models to the investigation of causal relations between a point process and another stochastic process, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 34, No. 2, B, pp. 373-387.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol. 31, pp. 115-124.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Likelihood analysis of point processes and its applications to seismological data, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol. 50, Book 2, pp. 943-961.

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (1984). On the moments of a self-correcting process, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 21, pp. 335-342.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (1984). Inference for earthquake models: A self-correcting model, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Vol. 17, pp. 337-347.

Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984) Transition from aftershock to normal activity, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 74, No. 5, pp. 1757-1765.

Akaike, H., Ozaki, T., Ishiguro, M., Ogata, Y., Kitagawa, G., Tamura, Y., Arahata, E., Katsura, K. and Tamura, R. (1984). Time Series and Control Program Package, TIMSAC-84, Computer Science Monograph, No. 22/23, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1986). Point-process models with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in Essays in Time Series and Allied Processes (Papers in honour of E.J. Hannan), Eds. J. Gani and M. B. Priestley, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 23A, pp. 291-310.

Ozaki, T., Akaike, H., Ogata, Y., Ishiguro, M. and Kitagawa, G., Time Series Analysis, Textbook for University of the Air, Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK) (1988).

Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, Journal of American Statistical Association, Application, Vol. 83, No. 401, pp. 9-27.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, Techtonophysics, Vol. 169, pp. 159-174.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Some statistical methods for modelling of point process data, Proceedings on Stochastic methods for Biological Intelligence, Ed. M. K. Habib, Plenum Publishing Company.

Ogata ,Y. and Abe, K. (1991). Some statistical features of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic activity, International Statistical Review, Vol. 59, No. 2, 139-161.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1991). Maximum likelihood estimates of the fractal dimension for random spatial patterns, Biometrika, Vol. 78, No. 3, pp. 463-474.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 245-256.

Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 97, pp. 19845-19871.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 113, pp. 727-738.

Ogata, Y., Matsu'ura, R. S. and Katsura, K. (1993). Fast likelihood computation of epidemic type aftershock-sequence model, Geophysical Reseach Letters, Vol. 20, No. 19, pp. 2143-2146.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English brief summary), Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp. 413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1994). Seismological applications of statistical methods for point-process modelling, Proc. of the First U.S./Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An Informational Approach, Bozdogan, H. (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 137-163.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and magnitude, Geophysical Reseach Letters, Vol. 22, No. 8, pp. 993-996.

Ogata, Y., Utsu ,T. and Katsura, K. (1995). Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 121, pp. 233-254.

Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura, R. S. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol. 43, pp. 1-33.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Statistical models for seismic activity (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Science), No. 389, pp. 13-20.

Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer Program Package: Statistical Analysis of Seismicity (SASeis), IASPEI Software Library for Personal Computers, Vol. 6, the International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, in collabolation with the American Seismological Society, pp. 1-222.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, Journal Geophysical Research, Vol. 102, No. B2, pp. 2857-2873.

Ohsuga, S., Ogata, Y. and Tamura, Y. (1997). An analysis of afterpulse in photomultiplier tube: Application of point process model to occcurrence-time data of photomultiplier dark pulses, Nuclear Instruments & Methods, Section A. Vol. A384, pp. 477-481.

Ogata, Y. (1997). Aftershock statistics and the ETAS model for measuring seismicity (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 139-143.

Ogata, Y. (1998). Quiescence Relative to the ETAS Model (in Japanese), in Special Issue on Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan), 2nd series, Vol. 50, pp. 115-127.

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 379-402.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Seismicity analyses through point-process modelling: A review, in Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning M. Wyss, K. Shimazaki and A. Ito eds. Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 155, pp. 471-507.

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 223-241.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times to of paleoearthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 104, No. B8, pp. 17995-18014.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999). Improvements of the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models, J. Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp.510-530.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,  Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 415-432.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 106, No. B5, pp. 8729-8744.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, Festscrift Volume for Professor Vere-Jones, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 38A, pp. 202-212.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English summary and captions), Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography), Vol. 110, No. 4, pp. 602-614.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M4) around Beijing area based on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 66, pp. 562-570 (2001).

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 97, No. 458, pp. 369-380.

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14).

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, No. B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter 82.

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol. 25, No. 10, pp. 783-787.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics (JRSSC), Vol. 52, Part 4, pp. 499-509.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the 2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 71, pp. 260-267.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the large interplate earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 71, pp. 268-278.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 162, pp. 1367-1396.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, pp.13-23.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review, E, 73, 046134, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 76, pp.590-597.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 77, pp.452-459.


Statistical Seismology

Ogata, Y. (1981). Analysis of series of events - statistical relation of earthquake sequences between certain two different Regions (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Sciences), No.213, pp.30-36.

Ogata, Y. and Akaike, H. (1982). On linear intensity models for mixed doubly stochastic Poisson and self-exciting point processes, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 102-107.

Ogata, Y., Akaike, H. and Katsura, K. (1982). The application of linear intensity models to the investigation of causal relations between a point process and another stochastic process, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 34, No. 2, B, pp. 373-387.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol. 31, pp. 115-124.

Ogata, Y. (1983). Likelihood analysis of point processes and its applications to seismological data, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol. 50, Book 2, pp. 943-961.

Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984) Transition from aftershock to normal activity, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 74, No. 5, pp. 1757-1765.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1986). Point-process models with linearly parameterized intensity for application to earthquake data, in Essays in Time Series and Allied Processes (Papers in honour of E.J. Hannan), Eds. Gani, J. and Priestley, M. B., Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 23A, pp. 291-310.

Ogata, Y. and Yamashina, K. (1986). Unbiased estimate for b-value of magnitude frequency, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol. 34, pp. 187-194.

Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 83, No. 401, pp. 9-27.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis, Techtonophysics, Vol. 169, pp. 159-174.

Inoue, H., Fukao, Y., Tanabe, K. and Ogata, Y. (1990). Whole mantle P-wave travel time tomography, Physics of Earth and Planet's Interiors, Vol. 59, pp. 294-328.

Imoto, M., Furukawa, N. and Ogata, Y. (1990). Three-dimensional spatial variations of b-value in the Kanto Area, Japan (in Japanese), Zisin (2), Vol. 43, pp. 321-326.

Ogata ,Y. and Abe, K. (1991). Some statistical features of the long-term variation of the global and regional seismic activity, International Statistical Review, Vol. 59, No. 2, 139-161.

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K. (1991). 3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the Kanto District, Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 104, pp. 135-146.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 245-256.

Ogata, Y. (1992). Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 97, pp. 19845-19871.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 113, pp. 727-738.

Ogata, Y., Matsu'ura, R. S. and Katsura, K. (1993). Fast likelihood computation of epidemic type aftershock-sequence model, Geophysical Reseach Letters, Vol. 20, No. 19, pp. 2143-2146.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English summary), Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp. 413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1994). Seismological applications of statistical methods for point-process modelling, Proc. of the First U.S./Japan Conference on the Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An Informational Approach, Bozdogan, H. (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 137-163.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and magnitude, Geophysical Reseach Letters, Vol. 22, No. 8, pp. 993-996.

Ogata, Y., Utsu ,T. and Katsura, K. (1995). Statistical features of foreshocks in comparison with other earthquake clusters, Geophys. J. Int, Vol. 121, pp. 233-254.

Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura, R. S. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity, J. Phys. Earth, Vol. 43, pp. 1-33.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Statistical models for seismic activity (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Science), No. 389, pp. 13-20.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Evaluation of probability forecasts of events, invited discussion as a commentary on "Forecasting Earthquakes and Earthquake Risk" by Prof. D. Vere-Jones, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp. 539-541.

Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1996). Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 127, pp. 17-30.

Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer program package: Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity (SASeis), invited and accepted for IASPEI Software Library for Personal Computers, the International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, in collabolation with the American Seismological Society, vol. 6, 13-94.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, Journal Geophysical Research, Vol. 102, No. B2, pp. 2857-2873.

Ogata, Y. (1997). Aftershock statistics and the ETAS model for measuring seismicity (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 139-143.

Ogata, Y. (1998). Quiescence Relative to the ETAS Model (in Japanese), in Special Issue on Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts, Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan), 2nd series, Vol. 50, pp. 115-127.

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 379-402.

Ogata, Y. (1998). A research proposal statistical earthquake prediction (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, No. 20, pp. 132-135.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Real time discrimination of forshocks (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, No. 24, pp. 167-173.

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 223-241.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Seismicity analyses through point-process modelling: A review, in Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning M. Wyss, K. Shimazaki and A. Ito eds. Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 155, pp. 471-507.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Estimating the hazard of rupture using uncertain occurrence times to of paleoearthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research., Vol. 104, No. B8, pp. 17995-18014.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 106, No. B5, pp. 8729-8744.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models, Festscrift Volume for Professor Vere-Jones, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 38A, pp. 202-212.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English summary and captions), Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography), Vol. 110, No. 4, pp. 602-614.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor to earthquakes, and the multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M4) around Beijing area based on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997) (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 66, pp. 562-570.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol. 97, No. 458, pp. 369-380.

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14). 

Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003). When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, No. B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12).

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical principles for seismologists, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, pp. 1573-1586.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter 82.

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol. 25, No. 10, pp. 783-787.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics (JRSSC), Vol. 52, Part 4, pp. 499-509.

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai Trough (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 70, pp. 378-383.

Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in western Japan (1995-2001) detected by a statistical space-time model (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 70, pp. 361-363.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Quiescence of the 2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered stress-changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 71, pp. 260-267. 

Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the large interplate earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 71, pp. 268-278.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 72, pp.631-637.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the northern Japan relating to the 2003 Tokachi earthquake of M8.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 72, pp. 110-117.

Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 162, pp. 1367-1396.

Ogata, Y. (2005). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-term seismicity anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 73, pp. 327-331.

Ogata, Y. (2005). On the aftershock activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the Kii Peninsula, and constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and space-time pattern of the aftershocks (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 73, pp. 495-498.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 73, pp. 666-669.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Hainzl, S. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S07, doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 74, pp. 83-88.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity changes in and around Kyushu District before the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 in the western offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 74, pp.523-528.

Ogata, Y. (2005). Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock (M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 74, pp. 529-535.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, pp.13-23.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the 16th August 2005 interplate earthquake of M7.2 off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, and the aftershock activity of the M7.2 earthquake (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 75, pp.129-131.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Aftershock activities of recent conspicuous earthquakes in and near Japan (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 75, pp.593-597.

Ogata, Y. (2006). On conspicuous aftershock activity relative to the background seismicity in the active regions (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 75, pp.598-601.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review, E, 73, 046134, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity rate changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol.28, No.7, pp.470-474.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 76, pp.590-597.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, Tectonophysics, Vol. 424, pp.291-306, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038.

Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake of M7.0 (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 77, pp.452-459.

Nanjo, K.Z., Enescu, B., Shcherbakov, R., Turcotte, D.L., Iwata, T. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Decay of aftershock activity for Japanese earthquakes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.112, No.B8, B08309, doi:10.1029/2006JB004754.


Spatial Statistics

Tanemura, M. and Ogata, Y. (1981). Statistical modeling for spatial point patterns and its application to the ecology of territory (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Sciences), No. 213, pp. 11-16.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1981). Estimation of interaction potentials of spatial point patterns through the maximum likelihood procedure, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 33, B, pp. 315-338.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984). Likelihood analysis of spatial point patterns, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 496-518.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984). Contribution to the invited discussion on Dr. Diggle's Paper, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 220-221.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1985). Estimation of interaction potentials of marked spatial point patterns through the maximum likelihood method, Biometrics, Vol. 41, pp. 421-433.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1986). Likelihood estimation of interaction potentials and external fields of inhomogeneous spatial point patterns, Proceedings of the Pacific Statistical Congress - 1985, North-Holland, pp. 150-154.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1988). Likelihood analysis of spatial inhomogenity for marked point patterns, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 29-39.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1987). Likelihood analysis for Gibbsian point patterns (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei Suri), Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 257-274.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1989). Likelihood estimation of soft-core interaction potentials for Gibbsian point patterns, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.41, No.3, pp.583-600.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Goodness-of-fit of Bayesian models by the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by Besag, J., York, J. and Mollie, A., Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 25-32.

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K. (1991). 3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the Kanto District, Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 104, pp. 135-146.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1991). Maximum likelihood estimates of the fractal dimension for random spatial patterns, Biometrika, Vol. 78, No. 3, pp. 463-474.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 245-256. 

Mase, S., Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1992). Staistics for spatial point patterns: Its theory and applications, Sugaku-Exposition, the Mathematics Society of Japan, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 193-204.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 113, pp. 727-738.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English summary), Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp. 413-463.

Diggle, P. J., Fiksel, T., Grabanik, P., Ogata, Y., Stoyan, D. and Tanemura, M. (1994). On parameter estimation for pairwise interaction point process, Internatinal Statistical Review, Vol. 62, No. 1, pp. 99-117.

Mase, S., Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1994). Statistical analysis of mapped point patterns - present condition of theory and application, American Mathematical Translation (2), Vol. 161, pp. 95-108.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1995). Correlation between characteristic parameters of aftershock distributions in time, space and magnitude, Geophysical Reseach Letters, Vol. 22, No. 8, pp. 993-996.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood computation of Bayesian models, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol.56, Book 4, pp.1873-1891.

Ogata, Y. (1996). Evaluating of spatial Bayesian models - Two computational methods, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 51, pp. 1-18.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, Journal Geophysical Research, Vol. 102, No. B2, pp. 2857-2873.

Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 50, No. 2, pp. 379-402. 

Ogata, Y., Kobayashi, A., Mikami, N., Murata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1998). Correction of earthquake location estimation in a small-seismic-array system, Bernoulli, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 167-184.

Ogata, Y. (1999). Real time discrimination of forshocks (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, No. 24, pp. 167-173.

Ogata ,Y. and Utsu, T. (1999). Real time statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters (in Japanese), Tokei-Suri (Proc. Inst. Statist. Math), Vol. 47, No. 1, pp. 223-241.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999). Improvements of the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models, J. Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp.510-530.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,  Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 415-432.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001). Comparison of two methods for calculating the partition functions of various spatial statistical models, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol. 43, pp. 47-65.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2002). Generalized pseudo-likelihood estimates for Markov random fields on lattice, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 1-18.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics (JRSSC), Vol. 52, Part 4, pp. 499-509. 

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

Zhuang, J., Chang, C., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, pp.13-23.

Ogata, Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the Omori-Utsu formula and stress changes (in Japanese), Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Vol. 76, pp.590-597.


Bayesian Modelling

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1988). Likelihood analysis of spatial inhomogenity for marked point patterns, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 29-39.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Comments on "Space-time modelling with long-memory dependence: Assessing Ireland's wind power resources by John Haslett and Adrian Raftery", Applied Statisitic (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C), Vol. 38, pp. 37-38.

Ogata, Y. (1990). A Monte Carlo method for an objective Bayesian procedure, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 403-433.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Goodness-of-fit of Bayesian models by the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by Besag, J., York, J. and Mollie, A., Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 25-32.

Ogata, Y., Imoto, M. and Katsura, K. (1991). 3-D spatial variation of b-values of magnitude-frequency distribution beneath the Kanto District, Japan, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 104, pp. 135-146.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Space and time variations of detection rate and the magnitude frequency of earthquakes (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp. 245-256.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 113, pp. 727-738.

Ogata, Y. (1993). Statistical models and methods in seismology and related earth sciences (in Japanese with English summary), Journal of the Statistical Society of Japan, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Special issue for 60th anniversery of the Statistical Society of Japan), pp. 413-463.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood computation of Bayesian models, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol.56, Book 4, pp.1873-1891.

Ogata, Y. (1996). Evaluation of spatial Bayesian models - Two computational methods, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 51, pp. 1-18.

Ogata, Y., Kobayashi, A., Mikami, N., Murata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1998). Correction of earthquake location estimation in a small-seismic-array system, Bernoulli, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 167-184.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,  Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 415-432.

Ogata, Y. (2001). Biases and uncertainties when estimating the hazard of the next Nankai earthquake (in Japanese with English summary and captions), Chigaku Zasshi (Journal of Geography), Vol. 110, No. 4, pp. 602-614.

Ogata, Y. (2002). Slip-size-dependent renewal processes and Bayesian inferences for uncertainties, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, No. B11, 2268, doi:10.1029/2001JB000668 (1-14).

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Examples of statistical models and methods applied to seismology and related earth physics, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, HandbookCD#2, Chapter 82.

Ogata, Y. (2003). A space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of seismicity changes (in Japanese), Chikyu Monthly, Vol. 25, No. 10, pp. 783-787. 

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003). Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquakes and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics (JRSSC), Vol. 52, Part 4, pp. 499-509.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621. 

Ogata, Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.

Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.


Applications of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Tanemura, M. and Ogata, Y. (1981). Statistical modeling for spatial point patterns and its application to the ecology of territory (in Japanese), Suri-Kagaku (Mathematical Sciences), No. 213, pp. 11-16.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1981). Estimation of interaction potentials of spatial point patterns through the maximum likelihood procedure, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 33, B, pp. 315-338. 

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984). Likelihood analysis of spatial point patterns, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 496-518.

Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1987). Likelihood Analysis for Gibbsian Point Patterns (in Japanese), Proceedings of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Tokei Suri), Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 257-274. 

Ogata, Y. (1989). A Monte Carlo method for high dimensinal integration, Numerische Mathematik, Vol. 55, pp. 137-157.

Ogata, Y. (1990). A Monte Carlo method for an objective Bayesian procedure, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 403-433.

Ogata, Y. (1991). Goodness-of-fit of Bayesian models by the Monte Carlo simulation, Discussion of the paper by Besag, J., York, J. and Mollie, A., Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 25-32.

Ogata, Y. (1992). Contribution to the Invited Discussion on Geyer and Thompsons' Paper, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 54, No. 3, p. 693.

Mase, S., Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1992). Staistics for spatial point patterns: its theory and applications, Sugaku-Exposition, the Mathematics Society of Japan, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 193-204.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration through simulated annealing and its application to likelihood computation of Bayesian models, Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute, Vol.56, Book 4, pp.1873-1891.

Ogata, Y. (1996). Evaluation of spatial Bayesian models - Two computational methods, Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 51, pp. 1-18.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (1999). Improvements of the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimators in various spatial statistical models, J. Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp.510-530.

Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2001). Comparison of two methods for calculating the partition functions of various spatial statistical models, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, Vol. 43, pp. 47-65.


Inference for Stochastic Processes

Inagaki, N. and Ogata, Y. (1975). The weak convergence of likelihood ratio random fields and its applications, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 391-419.

Ogata, Y. and Inagaki, N. (1977). The weak convergence of the likelihood ratio random fields for Markov observations, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 29, A, pp. 165-187.

Inagaki, N. and Ogata, Y. (1978). The weak convergence of the likelihood ratio statistics and its applications (in Japanese), Sugaku, Math. Soc. Japan (invited paper), Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 193-206.

Ogata, Y. (1978). The asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol. 30, A, pp. 243-261.

Ogata, Y. (1980). Maximum likelihood estimates of incorrect Markov models for time series and the derivation of AIC, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 17, pp. 59-72.

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (1984). On the moments of a self-correcting process, Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 21, pp. 335-342.

Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (1984). Inference for earthquake models: A self-correcting model, Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Vol. 17, pp. 337-347.

Ogata, Y. and Yamashina, K. (1986). Unbiased estimate for b-value of magnitude frequency, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol. 34, pp. 187-194.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Comments on "Long-memory models and their statistical properties (in Japanese) by Yoshihiro Yajima", J. Japan Statist. Soc., Vol. 19, pp. 237-238.

Ogata, Y. (1995). Evaluation of probability forecasts of events, invited discussion as a commentary on Forecasting Earthquakes and Earthquake Risk by Prof. D. Vere-Jones, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp. 539-541

Ogata, Y., Utsu, T. and Katsura, K. (1996). Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters, Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 127, pp. 17-30.

Guo, Z. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Statistical relations between the parameters of aftershocks in time, space and magnitude, Journal Geophysical Research, Vol. 102, No. B2, pp. 2857-2873.

Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000). Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,  Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 415-432.


Others

Ogata, Y. (1972). On the Simple β-automorphism and its transverse, Science Reports of the Tokyo Kyoiku Daigaku, Section A, Vol. 12, No. 316, pp. 25-32.

Ogata, Y. (1989). Comments on "Long-memory models and their statistical properties (in Japanese) by Yoshihiro Yajima", J. Japan Statist. Soc., Vol. 19, pp. 237-238.

Vere-Jones, D. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical principles for seismologists, International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Vol. 81B, pp. 1573-1586.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.

Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, No. B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.

Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review, E, 73, 046134, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.


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