Curriculum Vitae
Updated
on 30 November 2023
Japanese
- International
Statistical Institute (elected)
- Bernoulli
Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability
- American
Geophysical Union
- the
Statistical Society of Japan
- the
Seismological Society of Japan
- Japan
Geoscience Union
Current position
Professor Emeritus, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
(ISM), Tokyo.
Member, Statistical Seismology Research Group, Research Center, the ISM.
Professor Emeritus, the Graduate
University for Advanced Studies (SOKEN-DAI), Japan.
Previous employment
November 1973 - June 1984:
Research Scientist, Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM).
July 1984 - March 1985: Principal Research Scientist of ISM.
April 1985 - June 1994: Associate Professor of ISM.
April 1989 - September 1994: Concurrent Associate Professor, Department of
Statistics, SOKEN-DAI.
July 1994 – March 2004: Professor of ISM.
October 1994 – March 2008: Concurrent Professor, Department of Statistics,
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences (-2004) / School of
Multidisciplinary Sciences (2004-), SOKEN-DAI.
April 1998 - March 2000: Director of the Center for Development of Statistical
Computing, ISM.
June 1999 - March 2004: Member of the Advisory Council for Research and
Management, ISM.
April 2000 - March 2002: Director of Department of Statistical Methodology,
ISM.
April 2002 - March 2003: Vice Dean, School of Mathematical and Physical
Sciences, SOKEN-DAI.
April 2002 - March 2004: Council Member, the SOKEN-DAI.
April 2002 - March 2008: Director, Department of Statistical Science, School of
Multidisciplinary Sciences, SOUKEN-DAI.
April 2004 - March 2012: Council Member, the ISM.
April 2004 - March 2010: Member of the Education and Research Council,
SOKEN-DAI.
April 2005 - March 2012: Professor, Department of Modeling, the ISM.
June 2006 - December 2007: Selection Committee member of the President of the
SOKEN-DAI Advanced Studies.
April 2008 - March 2010: Dean, School of Multidisciplinary Sciences,
SOUKEN-DAI.
June 2008 - March 2010: Selection Committee member of the President of the
SOKEN-DAI Advanced Studies.
April 2012 - : Professor Emeritus of the ISM and SOKEN-DAI.
April 2012 - March 2014: Visiting Professor, Institute of Industrial Science,
University of Tokyo (Collaborative Research Center for Innovative Mathematical
Modeling).
June 2014 - May 2019: Project Researcher (Earthquake and Volcano Information
Center) Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo.
Adjunct appointments
February 1978 -
August 1978:
Visiting Lecturer at Mathematics Department, Victoria
University of Wellington, New Zealand
August 1978 -
November 1978:
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at Statistics
Department, Advanced Institute, Australian
National University
December 1981 -
February 1982:
Research Fellow, Statistics Department, Advanced
Institute, Australian
National University
March 1982 - April
1982:
Research Fellow, Institute
of Statistics and Operations Research,
Victoria University
of Wellington
October 1984:
Visiting Fellow at the Geophysical Institute, State
Seismological Bureau, Beijing,
China
1986 - 1988:
Concurrent Lecturer, University of the Air, Japan
1986:
Concurrent Research Fellow, Earthquake Research
Institute, University
of Tokyo
November 1986 -
December 1986:
Visiting Fellow, Seminar fur Statistik,
ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
December 1986:
Visiting Fellow, Department of Mathematics, Mining Academy
of Freiberg, G.D.R.
(East Germany)
1986:
Concurrent Research Fellow, Geological Survey of Japan, Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Japan
1987:
Concurrent Research Fellow, Earthquake Research
Institute, University
of Tokyo
May 1987 - June
1987:
Visiting Research Fellow, Division of Mathematics and
Statistics, CSIRO, Australia
March 1988 - May
1988:
Sabbatical leave supported by the Ministry of
Education, Science and Culture: University of Durham and University of
Strathclyde, UK; University of Copenhagen (the Statistical Research Unit and
Department of Mathematics) and University of Aarhus, Denmark; University of
Gothenburg, Sweden; Naval Postgraduate School at Monterey; US Geological Survey
at Menlo Park; and Stanford University (Departments of Statistics and
Geophysics), USA
1988:
Concurrent Lecturer at Geophysics Department, Graduate School,
Kobe University, Japan
October 1988 -
March 1990:
Concurrent Research Fellow of the National Disaster
Prevention Research Center at Tsukuba, Japan, for the Project of the Science
and Technology Agency of Japan entitled Earthquake Fracture and Wave
Propagation in Inhomogeneous Structure of the Earth
1993:
Concurrent Lecturer at Geophysics Department, Graduate School,
Kyoto University, Japan
1993 - 1995:
Concurrent Lecturer at Department of Science and
Engineering, Graduate School, Keio
University, Japan
December 1993:
Visiting Research Scientist, Division of Image
Analysis the Center for Mathematics and Computer Science (CWI), Amsterdam, the Netherlands
January 1994:
Visiting Fellow at Division of Mathematics and
Statistic, CSIRO, Australia
October 1994 -
March 1995:
Concurrent Lecturer, Department of Mathematics, Graduate School,
Tsukuba University, Japan
April 1994 -
August 1994:
Concurrent Lecturer at Department of Science and
Engineering, Graduate School, Keio
University, Japan
July 1996:
Visiting Research Fellow at Institute
of Statistics and Operations Research,
Victoria University of Wellington
November 1998:
Visiting Fellow at Department of Statistic, Seoul National University, Korea
April 1999 -
September 1999:
Concurrent Lecturer at Graduate School of Information
Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
May 2002 - June
2002:
Very Important Visitor, Institute of Mathematics and
its Applications, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA.
September 2010 -
October 2010:
Visiting Professor, School of Earth and Space
Sciences, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, China.
1964 - 1966:
Yamagata-Higashi High School,
Yamagata-city, Japan
1967 - 1970:
Shizuoka University (mathematics, probability theory)
1971 - 1972:
Tokyo University
of Education, Graduate School,
Master Course (Mathematical Sciences)
March 1973:
Master of Science (probability theory, ergodic
theory)Master thesis: Topics on the automorphisms in the probability space,
under the supervision of Professor Gishiro Maruyama
April 1973 -
November 1973:
Tokyo University of Education, Graduate School,
Doctor Course (mathematical sciences)
July 1980:
Doctor of Engineering (statistics), Osaka University,
Japan. Doctoral Thesis: Contributions to the statistical analysis of series
of events by the likelihood procedure
September 2002: Japan Statistical Society Prize
May 2010: Korean
Statistical Society 2010 IL-SONG
lecture
November 2010: Top50
citation of Tectonophysics 2005-2010
February 2017: The 10th
International Workshop Statistical Seismology, Local Organizing Committee The
most royal statistical seismology meeting attendee Award The 1st-10th Biennial
Conference Perfect Attendance
May 2020: Seismological
Society of Japan 2019 Seismological Society of Japan Prize The ETAS model of
seismic activity and systematization of statistical seismological theory
1983 - 95:
Associate Editor,
Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (in Japanese)
1987 - 95:
Associate Editor,
International Statistical Review, the official journal of the International
Statistical Institute (ISI)
1993 - 2000:
Associate Editor,
BERNOULLI, the official journal of Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics
and Probability
1994 - 2011:
Associate Editor,
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
1995 - 2002:
Associate Editor,
Journal of Statistical Planning & Inference
2000 - 2001:
Editor,
Probability Statistics and Seismology: A Festschrift
for Professor David Vere-Jones
2014 - 2015: Guest
Editor,
Statistical Mathematics for the special issue of on
“Earthquake Forecasting and Statistical Models”
Domestic
1992:
Member, Organizing committee of US-Japan conference on
Frontiers of Statistical Modeling, University of Kentucky, Knoxville,
USA
1992 - 1993:
Council member, the Statistical Society of Japan
1992 - 1993:
Treasurer and secretary of general affairs, the
Statistical Society of Japan
1993:
Member, Organizing committee of international
conference on Bayesian Inference and its Applications, Fuji-Yoshida, Japan
1994 - 1995:
Council member, the Statistical Society of Japan
1996:
Member, External Review Committee for the special
projects in the Research Center of Earthquake Prediction and other division of
the National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Science and
Technology Agency
1996 - 2001:
Member, Committee of the Research Project on
'Prediction of the forth coming Great Earthquake at Nankai Trough' organized by
the Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, and sponsored by
the Science and Technological Agency of Japan
1997 - 1998:
Member, Adhoc Committee for
Earthquake Research (Probabilistic
forecast of aftershocks), Administrative Office for Promotion of Earthquake
Researches, The Prime Minister's Office, Japan
1997 - 2001:
Member, Adhoc Committee for
Earthquake Research (Probabilistic forecast of large events on an active
fault), Administrative Office for Promotion of Earthquake Researches, The Prime
Minister's Office, Japan
1998:
Organizer of the special session at the Annual Meeting
of the Statistical Society of Japan on "Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods
and Bayesian statistics
2001 - 2008:
Technical Researcher, the Science and Technology
Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Ministry
of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology, Japan
2001 - 2009:
Special Member, Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Ministry
of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan
2009 - 2019:
Member, Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Ministry
of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan
2013 - 2017:
Business collaborator
and the committee chair of sub-project “the relationship of small and
medium-sized earthquakes
to developmental process
of a large earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area” of the Ministry of Education project “Mitigation project of serious
disaster vulnerability of urban cause”
2014 - 2019:
Research collaborator of subproject “Construction of a
physical model of inland
earthquakes of strike-slip
type” of the Ministry of Education project "Seismology and Volcanology research
program to contribute to the mitigation
of disaster" (Representative body, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto
University)
2017 - 2019:
Research collaborator of subproject “Construction of crustal
activity monitoring technique
based on the return characteristics of repeating earthquakes” of the Ministry of Education
project "Seismology and Volcanology research program to contribute to the mitigation of disaster"
2018 - 2020:
Auditor, the Seismological Society of Japan
2019 - 2025:
Member, Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Ministry
of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan
International
1990 - 1993:
Member, Committee for Statistics in the Physical
Science of Bernoulli Society
1990 - 1993:
Member, Scientific program committee of Bernoulli
Society for the 49th Session of the ISI at Firenze, Italy
1992:
Member, Organizing Committee of US-Japan Conference on
Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An
Informational Approach, University
of Kentucky, Knoxville, USA
1993:
Member, Organizing Committee of International
Conference on Bayesian Inference and its
Applications, Fuji-Yoshida,
Japan
1993:
Organizer of the Invited topic meeting on Statistics
in Earth Sciences for the 49th ISI Session in Firenze, Italy
1993 - 1995:
Member, Publications committee of the ISI
1994 - 1997:
Chairman, Scientific programme
committee of Bernoulli Society for the 51st Session of the ISI, Istanbul, Turkey
1994 - 1997:
Member, Scientific programme
coordinating committee of the ISI for the 51st Session of the ISI, Istanbul, Turkey
1995 - present:
Member, Committee for Statistics in the Physical
Science, Bernoulli Society
1996:
Reviewer of the Belgian National Fund for Scientific
Research
1996 - 1997:
Member of the International Advisory Committee of the
International Conference on Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability(sponsored
by the Indian Statistical Institute and co-sponsored by Bernoulli Society)
1995 - 1997:
Organizer of the conference on Point Processes;
Models and Applications, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach, Germany
1996 - 1997:
Organizer of the session on 'Earthquake Modeling and
Prediction', Conference on Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability,
Indian Statistical Institute, India
1997:
Reviewer of Belgian National Fund for Scientific
Research
1997 - 1999:
Member, Scientific Programme
Committee of Conference on Statistics in Space, Earth and Environmental
Sciences, Athen, Greek
1997 - 1999:
Chairman, the Organizing Committee of the 5th
International Symposium of the Graduate
University for Advanced Studies on
"Strategies Toward Complex Systems", Shonan Village,
Hayama, Japan
1998 - 1999:
Member, Scientific Programme
Committee of the international symposium on Probability and Statistics and
Their Applications, June 9-11 1999, Hanoi,
Vietnam
1999 - 2001:
Member, Scientific Programme
Committee of the international symposium on Statistics and Applications, June
26-30, 2001, Kuala Lumpur"
under the auspices of the East Asian and Pacific Regional Committee of the
Bernoulli Society
1999 - 2001:
Member, The International Organizing Committee, The
Second International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Victoria University of
Wellington, New Zealand, 18-19th April, 2001
2002 - 2003:
Session organizer of the Third International Workshop
on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico
2002 - 2004:
Member, Scientific Program Committee of the Bernoulli
Society World Congress and 2004 Meeting of Institute of Mathematical
Statistics, Barcelona, Spain
2004 - :
Member, ISI-Committee for Environmental Statistics
2006 - 2007:
Advisory Board of the 5th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, Erice,
Italy
2009 - 2010:
Program Committee of the AGU Chapman Conference on
Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences, Hyderabad, India
2010 - 2011:
Organizing &
Programming Committee member
of the 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Thera (Santorini),
Greece
2012 - 2013:
Advisory Committee member, The 8th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)), Peking University, Beijing,
China
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2023).
Space-time changes of the Noto Peninsula Earthquake by the Point Process
Models, 2023 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Pacifico
Yokohama, Yokohama city, Japan, 2 November 2023. (Oral)
Ogata, Y.* and Kumazawa,
T. (2023). Estimation of actual activity rate changes based on seismic catalogs
with systematic missing measurements, 2023 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Pacifico Yokohama, Yokohama city, Japan, 2 November 2023.
(Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2023). 直下型⼤地震の確率予測について, Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting 2023, Kyoto University, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto City, Japan,
6 September 2023. (Oral)
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2023). Statistical
Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Transitions of Noto Peninsula Earthquake
Swarms, Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2023, Kyoto University, Yoshida
Campus, Kyoto City, Japan, 4 September 2023. (Oral)
Ogata,
Y.* and Kumazawa, T. (2023). Estimation of actual
activity rate changes from earthquake catalogs with systematic missing
measurements: Aftershock activity of the M6.5 Noto Peninsula Earthquake (in
Japanese), The 240th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, Geospatial Information Authority of Japan Kanto Regional Survey
Division, Kudanshita, Tokyo (Hybrid), 31 August 2023..
Kumazawa, T. and
Ogata, Y. (2023). Prediction of crustal activity: (2) prediction of crustal
activity - Space-time features of the Noto Peninsula swarm activity and the May
5, 2023 earthquake (in Japanese), The 239th Meeting of the Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geospatial Information Authority of Japan Kanto Regional Survey
Division, Kudanshita, Tokyo (Hybrid), 31 May 2023.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2023). Statistical
Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Transitions of Noto Peninsula Earthquake
Swarms, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023, Hybrid, MAKUHARI MESSE, Chiba City, Japan, 23 May 2023. (Online Poster)
Ogata,
Y. (2023). Diverse characteristics of seismic activity in comparison with spatio-temporal ETAS forecasts, Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2023, Hybrid, MAKUHARI MESSE, Chiba City,
Japan, 22 May 2023. (Oral)
Ogata*, Y. and Kumazawa,
T. (2023). Earthquakes
in Turkey on February 6, 2023 (UTC) (in Japanese), The 238th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction
Geospatial Information Authority of
Japan Kanto Regional Survey Division, Kudanshita,
Tokyo (Hybrid), 28 February 2023.
Ogata, Y. (2023).
Background seismic activity and repeating earthquakes, etc., Research Meeting
in FY2022: Crustal Activity Monitoring Based on the Understanding of Recurrence
Characteristics of Repeated Earthquakes, 3 February 2023. (Online)
Ogata, Y.
(2022). Prediction and validation of long‑term earthquake probabilities
in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson
process models, Invited talk in the Session for Discussion on Priority Issue
"Long-Term Prediction of Inland Earthquakes" (in Japanese), The 237-th web
conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 25 November 2022. ( Invited
Lecture)
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata*, Y. (2022). Regional features
revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model for earthquake swarm activity in
Noto Peninsula - Continuation Report 2, Session for Study on Monitoring of
Crustal Activity, (follow-up report) (in Japanese), The 237-th web conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
25 November 2022.
Nomura,
S.*, Uchida, N. and Ogata, Y. (2022). Short-term Forecast of Repeating
Earthquakes Considering Spatiotemporal Aseismic Slip Rate along Plate Boundary,
2022 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Hokkaido Citizens
Actives Center, Sapporo city, Hokkaido, 25 October 2022. (Invited Lecture)
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2022). Analysis of the non-stationarity of the earthquake swarm activities in
the Noto Peninsula, 2022 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Hokkaido Citizens Actives Center, Sapporo city, Hokkaido, 24 October 2022. (Oral)
Ogata,
Y. (2022). Retrospective Monitoring of the Area Surrounding the Showa Nankai
Trough Earthquakes, 2022 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Hokkaido Citizens Actives Center, Sapporo city, Hokkaido, 24 October 2022.
(Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2022).
Prediction and validation of short- to long-term earthquake probabilities in
inland Japan using the hierarchical space-time ETAS and space-time Poisson
process models, 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting, Online, 11-14 September 2022.
(Poster)
Kumazawa,
T.* and Ogata, Y. (2022). On statistical methods applied to recent earthquake
swarms, Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2022, Hybrid Meeting, 25 May 2022.
(Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2022). A
major earthquake has occurred! Real-time forecasting of subsequent earthquake,
Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2022, Hybrid Meeting, Seikei
University, Tokyo, Japan, 5 September 2022. (Oral)
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2022). Cluster-based Foreshock Discrimination Models for
Flexible Prediction Schemes, AOGS2022 VIRTUAL, 19th Annual Meeting Asia Oceania
Geosciences Society(AOGS), 2 August 2022. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2022). How
to obtain probabilities and scenarios of a large earthquake chain, Special
Symposium of the Seismological Society of Japan entitled by A Major Earthquake
has occurred! What's next after the warning 'Be careful during about a week?' -Subsequent
Earthquakes and Temporary Information-, Online, 23 July 2022. (Invited Lecture)
Shiomi, K.*, Omi, T., Ogata, Y. and Sawazaki,
K. (2022). 5-year performance check for the real-time automatic system for
aftershock forecasting, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022: Online, 2 June
2022. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2022).
Prediction and validation of short- to long-term earthquake probabilities in
inland Japan using the hierarchical space-time ETAS and space-time Poisson
process models, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022: Online, 25 May 2022.
(Oral)
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2022). Changing features
revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model in regional earthquake swarm
activity of the Noto Peninsula, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022: Online, 25
May 2022. (Oral)
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y.* (2022). Regional features
revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model for earthquake swarm activity in
Noto Peninsula (follow-up report) (in Japanese), The 235th web conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
16 May 2022.
Ogata,
Y. (2022). Development of the ETAS model, Workshop on "Statistical
Modeling and Physical Implications of Seismic Activity," Earthquake
Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Online, 8 March 2022. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2021). Prediction
and validation of short- medium-, and long-term earthquake probabilities using
a hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) models, etc. (in Japanese), The 233rd web conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 26 November 2021. (Invited lecture)
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata,
Y.* (2021). Changing features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model in
regional earthquake swarm activity of the Noto Peninsula (in Japanese), The
233rd web conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 26 November 2021.
Ogata, Y.* and Katsura, K.
(2021). Modified estimation of the HIST-ETAS model for earthquake catalogs
possessing long- and short-term incomplete data, 2021 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Online, 15 October 2021. (Oral)
Kumazawa,
T.* and Ogata, Y. (2021). Characteristics of earthquake swarm activity in
central Nagano prefecture as seen from the time variation of background seismic
activity estimated by the point process model, 2021 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Online, 14 October 2021. (Oral)
Ogata, Y.* and
Katsura, K. (2021). Modified estimation and forecasting of the hierarchical
space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) model for earthquake catalogs in a wide area
possessing long- and short-term incompleteness, 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting,
Online, 12-17 September 2021, Poster.
Ogata,
Y.* and Katsura, K. (2021). Spatio-temporal
estimation of long-term evolution of the detection rates in addition to local
missing rates of earthquakes immediately after major earthquakes in the JMA
earthquake hypocenter catalog, Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2021: Online,
7 September 2021. (Oral)
Xiong, Z.*, Zhuang, J.
and Ogata, Y. (2021). A study on the spherical space-time ETAS model, Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting 2021: Online, 8 September 2021. (Oral)
Ogata, Y.* and Katsura, K. (2021). Modeling space-time heterogeneities of
hypocenter catalog, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2021: Online, 3 June 2021.
Zhuang, J.*, Xiong, Z. and Ogata,
Y. (2021). A spherical version of the space-time ETAS model, Japan Geoscience
Union Meeting 2021: Online, 5 June 2021.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2021). Statistical analysis and
its characteristics of the earthquake activity near the border of Nagano, Gifu
and Fukui prefectures, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2021: Online, 3 June
2021.
Kumazawa,
T. and Ogata*, Y. (2021). Earthquake activity near the border of Nagano, Gifu
and Fukui prefectures (in Japanese), The
230th web conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 24-26 February 2021.
Ueda, T.*, Kato, A., Ogata, Y. and Yamaya, L. (2020). Spatial variations
in seismicity characteristics in and around the source region of the 2019
Yamagata-Oki Earthquake, Japan, The 998-th DANWAKAI, Earthquake Research
Institute, The University of Tokyo, Web Meeting(Zoom), 18 December 2020.
Ueda, T.*, Kato, A., Ogata,
Y. and Yamaya, L. (2020). Spatial variations in seismicity characteristics in
and around the source region of the 2019 Yamagata-Oki Earthquake, Japan, 2020
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Virtual, 11 December 2020.
Ogata, Y. (2020). Short-, medium-, long-term
and background-rate forecasts based on a hierarchical space-time ETAS model:
Towards the development of automated forecasts (in Japanese), The 229th web
conference of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, 26 November 2020. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2020). The
Evolution of the ETAS Model and the Modeling of Causal Inference (in Japanese),
2020 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Online, 29 October
2020. (Commemorative lectures from SSJ award recipients)
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y. (2020). Predictability of
earthquake swarms with consideration of central nagano
swarm events in 2020 (in Japanese), 2020 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Online, 31 October 2020.
Ogata, Y.* and Omi, T.
(2020). Statistical monitoring and early forecasting of earthquake sequence:
Case studies after the 2019 M6.4 Searles Valley Earthquake, California, 2020
Annual Meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center, Online, 14-16 September
2020.
Ueda, T.*, Kato, A., Ogata, Y. and Yamaya, L. (2020). Spatial variations
in seismicity characteristics in and around the source region of the 2019
Yamagata-Oki Earthquake, Japan, 2020 Annual Meeting of the Southern California
Earthquake Center, Online,14 September 2020.
Ogata, Y. (2020).
Visualizing Heterogeneities of Earthquake Hypocenter Catalogs: Modeling,
Analysis, and Calibration, 2020 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Online, 10
September 2020.
Ogata, Y.* and Omi, T. (2020). Statistical Monitoring and Early
Forecasting of Earthquake Sequence: Case Studies after the 2019 M6.4 Searles
Valley Earthquake, California, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2020, Virtual
Meeting, 15 July 2020.
Ueda, T.*, Yamaya, L.,
Ogata, Y. and Kato, A. (2020). Different deformation styles in the source
regions of the 2019 Yamagata-oki earthquake and the
1964 Niigata earthquake, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2020, Virtual Meeting,
12-16 July 2020.
Kumazawa*, T., Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2020).
Characteristics of Seismic Activity before and after the 2018 M6.7 Hokkaido
Eastern Iburi Earthquake, Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2020, Virtual Meeting, 15 July 2020.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.
(2020). Bayesian inference and forecast for aperiodicity parameters of recurret earthquakes under uncertain occurrence times, Hokudan 2020 International Symposium on Active Faulting, Hokudan Earthquake Memorial Park in Awaji City, Awaji
Island, Japan, 16 January 2020. (Invited Lecture)
Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Spatial Heterogeneity of the
Aftershock Productivity of the Kumamoto Earthquake Modeled by the Finite Source
ETAS model, 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Moscone
Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 9 December 2019. (Poster)
Ogata, Y. (2019). Purport
of next intensive discussion subject "Trial of experimental earthquake
forecast Part 6: Implementation and evaluation of real-time short-term
forecasts" (in Japanese), The 225th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Tokyo, 22 November 2019. (Oral)
Ogata, Y.
(2019). Short- and medium-term forecasts using hierarchical spatiotemporal ETAS
model (in Japanese), The 225th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2019. (Oral)
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y.
(2019). Foreshock discrimination models for various prediction schemes and
evaluation of their predictive performance (in Japanese), The 225th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2019. (Oral)
Kumazawa, T. and
Ogata, Y. (2019). Detection of swarm activities by nonstationary ETAS model and
their predictability based on geodetic data (in Japanese), The 225th Meeting of
Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2019. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2019). High
resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity
forecast models, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southen
University of Science and Technology, Shenzheng,
Guangdong, China, 17 October 2019. (Invited talk)
Ogata, Y. (2019). High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation
for effective seismicity forecast models, Institute
of Theoretical and Application Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China, 11 October 2019. (Invited
talk)
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.
(2019). Bayesian inference for recurrent earthquake sequences with uncertain
occurrence times (in Japanese), 2019 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Kyoto University, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto City, Japan, 18 September
2019. (Oral)
Guo,
Y.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Spatial heterogeneity of aftershock
productivity on the Kumamoto earthquake rupture modeled by the finite source
ETAS model, 2019 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyoto
University, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto City, Japan, 18 September 2019. (Poster)
Ogata, Y. (2019). High
resolution seismicity models using interpolation with Delaunay triangulation
(in Japanese), 2019 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyoto
University, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto City, Japan, 18 September 2019. (Oral)
Ogata,
Y. (2019). Bayesian modeling and visualization of spatiotemporal heterogeneity
of hypocenter catalogs (in Japanese), 2019 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Kyoto University, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto City, Japan, 17
September 2019. (Poster)
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y. and
Tsuruoka, H. (2019). Characteristics of seismic activity before and after the
2018 M6.7 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake, 2019
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyoto University, Yoshida
Campus, Kyoto City, Japan, 16 September 2019. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2019). Posterior distribution of number and locations of
centers from coordinates of clustered spatial point patterns, 2019 Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting, Shiga University, Hikone
Campus, Hikone City, Shiga, Japan, 10 September 2019.
(Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2019). SCEC
CSEP Workshop on Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the Ridgecrest
Sequence and CSEP2 Progress, CSEP Workshop, Hilton
Palm Springs, Palm Springs, California, U.S.A., 7 September 2019. (Invited discussion)
Ogata, Y. (2019). Purport of next intensive discussion subject
"Trial of experimental earthquake forecast Part 6: Implementation and
evaluation of real-time short-term forecasts" (in Japanese), The 224th Meeting of Coordinating Committee
for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Tokyo, 30 August 2019. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2019). 3D
seismicity model beneath the Greater Tokyo Area, Workshop on Hawkes processes
in data science, Institute
of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 27 August 2019.
(Oral)
Han,
P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K. (2019). Operational earthquake
forecast incorporating multiple geophysical data, 11th International Workshop
on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20 August 2019.
(Poster)
Shcherbakov, R.*,
Zhuang, J., Zoeller, G. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Bayesian Inference on the
Magnitude of the Largest Expected Earthquake, 11th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko,
Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20 August 2019. (Poster)
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2019). Spatial Distribution of Coefficients of Variation for
Recurrence Intervals of Paleoearthquakes in Japan,
11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince
Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan,
20 August 2019. (Oral)
Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J.
and Ogata, Y. (2019). Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and
application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, 11th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20 August 2019.
(Poster)
Ogata, Y. (2019). High resolution seismicity models using interpolation
with Delaunay triangulation, 11th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko,
Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20 August 2019. (Oral)
Ogata, Y. (2019). Modeling, visualizing and calibrating heterogeneous
hypocenter catalog, 11th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko,
Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20 August 2019. (Poster)
Omi,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K.
and Aihara, K. (2019). Results for real-time aftershock forecasting in Japan
during recent two years, 11th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko,
Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20 August 2019. (Poster)
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Toda, S.
(2019). Anomalies in wide seismicity before the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, 11th
International Workshop on Statistical Seismology(StatSei11), The Prince Hakone
Lake Ashinoko, Hakone-machi, Kanagawa, Japan, 20
August 2019. (Poster)
Ogata,
Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2019). High resolution space-time models forecasting 3D seismicity beneath the
Greater Tokyo Area, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2019,
Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 27 May 2019. (Invited lecture)
Guo, Y.*, Zhuang, J.
and Ogata, Y. (2019). Extended versions of the space-time ETAS model and
application to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2019, Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 27 May 2019. (Invited
lecture)
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2019). Bayesian Inference and Forecast on
Renewal Processes for Recurrent Earthquakes with Uncertain Occurrence Times, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2019, Tokyo Bay Makuhari
Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 29 May 2019. (Oral)
Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata,
N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Jordan, T., Marzocchi, W., Savran, W.,
Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Beutin, T., Jackson, D. D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D.,
Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., and Zhuang, J. (2019). Increasing Earthquake
Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting
2019, Makuhari Messe International Exhibition Hall,
Chiba City, Japan, 27 May 2019. (Poster)
Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Hattori, K. (2019). Earthquake
probability forecast incorporating non-seismic data, Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2019, Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 27 May 2019. (Oral)
Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata,
N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S.,
Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D., Maechling, P., Mak, S., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D.,
Strader, A., Tsuruoka, H., Weatherill, G., Zhuang, J. and Savran, W. (2019).
Increasing Earthquake Forecast Testability - CSEP Future Developments, European
Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019, Austria Center Vienna(ACV),
Vienna, Austria, 8 April 2019. (Invited Lecture)
Ogata, Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and
Hirata, N. (2019). High resolution space-time model forecasting 3D seismicity beneath Kanto
Region (in Japanese), The 222nd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Tokyo, 22 February 2019.
Ogata, Y. (2018). Modeling and
visualizing space-time heterogeneities of hypocenter catalogs, 2018 Fall
Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Walter E. Washington Convention
Center, Washington,DC, U.S.A., 10 December 2018.
(Invited(Poster))
Ogata,
Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2018). 3D ETAS based model for
predicting seismicity beneath the Greater Tokyo Area, 2018 Fall Meeting of the
American Geophysical Union(AGU), Walter E. Washington Convention Center, Washington,DC, U.S.A., 10 December 2018.
Zhuang, J.*, Han, P.
and Ogata, Y. (2018). Statistical testing of earthquake precursors and
modelling strategies, 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union
(AGU), Walter E. Washington Convention Center, Washington,DC,
U.S.A., 10 December 2018. (Invited lecture)
Shcherbakov,
R.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2018). Bayesian Framework for Constraining the
Magnitude of Extreme Aftershocks, 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical
Union(AGU), Walter E. Washington Convention Center, Washington,DC,
U.S.A., 14 December 2018.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata,
Y. (2018). Bayesian estimation and forecast for recurrence intervals of
uncertain occurrence times from paleoearthquakes,
2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Walter E. Washington
Convention Center, Washington,DC, U.S.A., 10 December
2018.
Omi,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K.
and Aihara, K. (2018). Real-time operational aftershock forecasting in Japan,
2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU), Walter E. Washington
Convention Center, Washington,DC, U.S.A., 12 December
2018.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y.* and Tsuruoka, H. (2018). Characteristics of
aftershock activity of the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi
Earthquake (in Japanese), The 221st Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Tokyo, 30 November 2018.
Omi, T., Ogata, Y.*, Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki
K. and Aihara, K. (2018). Real-time aftershock forecasting for the 2018 Northern Osaka and Iburi earthquakes (in Japanese), The 221st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Tokyo, 30 November
2018.
Ogata, Y. (2018).
Statistical Seismology and Physics of Seismic activity (in Japanese), 2018 Fall
Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Big Palette Fukushima, Koriyama
City, Fukushima, Japan, 10 October 2018. (Invited lecture)
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2018). Bayesian Forecast with the BPT Model for Japanese Paleoseismic Catalog and its Predictive Performance Based
on Numerical Experiences (in Japanese), 2018 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Big Palette Fukushima, Koriyama City, Fukushima, Japan, 10
October 2018.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki K. and Aihara, K.
(2018). Real -time aftershock forecasting after the 2018 Northern Osaka
earthquake (in Japanese), 2018 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Big Palette Fukushima, Koriyama City, Fukushima, Japan, 9 October 2018.
Kumazawa,
T.*, Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2018). Anomalies in wide seismicity before the
2011 Tohoku Earthquake (in Japanese), 2018 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Big Palette Fukushima, Koriyama City, Fukushima, Japan, 9
October 2018.
Ogata, Y. (2018). Exploring
Magnitude Forecasts of the Next Earthquake, 2018 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Chuo University, Korakuen Campus, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan, 13 September 2018.
Ogata,
Y. (2018). SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and
Planning CSEP 2.0, CSEP Workshop, Hilton
Palm Springs, Palm Springs, California, U.S.A., 8 September 2018. (Invited discussion).
Ogata, Y.*, Katsura,
K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2018). 3D models of seismicity beneath the
Greater Tokyo Area, 2018
SCEC Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm Springs,
California, U.S.A., 8-12 September 2018.
Schorlemmer,
D.*, Werner, M., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D., Mak, S.,
Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Hirata, N., Strader, A., Taroni, M., Wiemer,
S., Zechar, J. and Zhuang, J. (2018). Increasing earthquake forecast
testability-CSEP future developments, The European Seismological Commission
36th General Assembly, Mediterranean Conference Center(MCC), Valetta, Malta, 4
September 2018.
Ogata, Y. (2018).
Studies of Seismic Activity and Forecasting based on the ETAS models, RIKEN
Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, RIKEN Kansai Branch at Advanced
Telecommunications Research Institute International(ATR), Soraku-gun,
Kyoto, Japan, 10 August 2018. (Invited lecture)
Ishibe, T.*, Miyazawa, M., Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and
Satake, K. (2018). Seismicity rate change in Japan following the 2011
Tohoku-Oki earthquake, 15th Annual Meeting Asia Oceania Geosciences Society,
Hawaii Convention Centre, Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A., 7 June 2018.
Ogata, Y. (2018).
Probability forecasts of a large earthquake by combination of statistical
characteristics and anomalies of seismic activity, International Symposium
on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation
Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5), Chiba University,
Chiba City, Japan, 27 May 2018. (Invited Lecture)
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2018). Statistical features and cluster-based discrimination
of foreshocks, International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th
International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation,
Validation, Modeling, Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5), Chiba University,
Chiba City, Japan, 26 May 2018. (Invited Lecture)
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
(2018). Real-time short-term earthquake forecasting after a large earthquake in
Japan, International Symposium on Earthquake Forecast / 5th International
Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process ~ Observation, Validation, Modeling,
Forecasting ~ (ISEF-IWEP5). Chiba University,
Chiba City, Japan, 26 May 2018.
Ogata,
Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2018). Exploring Magnitude Forecasting of the Next Earthquake, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018, Tokyo Bay Makuhari
Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 21 May 2018.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y.
(2018). Foreshock Discrimination and Short-Term Mainshock Forecast Based on
Magnitude Differences and Spatio–Temporal Distances, Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2018, Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 21 May 2018.
Kumazawa, T.*,
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2018). Wide seismic anomalies
before the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake,
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018, Tokyo Bay Makuhari
Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2018.
Schorlemmer, D.*,
Hirata, N., Cotton, F., Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer,
S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D. D., Mak, S.,
Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D., Tsuruoka, H. and Zhuang, J. (2018).
Increasing Testability, Expanding Possibilities. Some CSEP Future Developments,
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2018, Tokyo Bay Makuhari
Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 21 May 2018.
Ogata,
Y. (2018) Toward probability forecasting of large earthquakes, Workshop on the
Challenges of the Continental Earthquake Science Experiments (CESES): Science,
Technology and Coordination, Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA, Beijing,
China, 16 May 2018, (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2018). On
recent ETAS research progress for seismicity, International Conference for the
Decade Memory of the Wenchuan Earthquake with the 4th International Conference
on Continental Earthquakes, Chengdu Century City New International Convention
and Exhibition Center, Chengdu, Sichuan, China, 13 May 2018. (Invited lecture)
Kumazawa,
T.*, Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2018).
Analysis of seismic activities before and after the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake
using point process models (in Japanese), The 218th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 23 February 2018. (Invited lecture)
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y.*
(2018). Inference of a common aperiodicity parameter and Bayesian forecast in
the BPT model (in Japanese), The 218th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 23 February 2018.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Spatial Pattern of Coefficients of
Variation and Bayesian Forecasts for Recurrence Intervals of Earthquakes in
Japan, ISI-ISM-ISSAS Joint Conference Tokyo 2017, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Japan, 30
November 2017.
Ogata, Y. (2017). Magnitude forecasts of the next earthquake and
evaluation (in Japanese), The 217th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2017. (Invited
lecture)
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Foreshock Discrimination Model Based on Magnitudes
and Spatio-temporal Information and its Predictive
Performance (in Japanese), The 217th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2017. (Invited lecture)
Schorlemmer, D.*, Hirata, N., Cotton, F.,
Gerstenberger, M., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M., Wiemer, S., Jordan, T., Beutin, T., Jackson, D., Nanjo, K., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D.,
Tsuruoka, H., Yu, J. and Zhuang, J. (2017). Increasing Testability - Expanding
Possibilities: Some CSEP future developments, 2017 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Kagoshima Prefectural Citizens Exchange Center,
Kagoshima City, Japan, 26 October 2017.
Ogata, Y. (2017). CSEP次世代プロジェクトの一展望 (in Japanese), 2017
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kagoshima Prefectural
Citizens Exchange Center, Kagoshima City, Japan, 26 October 2017.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi,
K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki K. and Aihara, K. (2017). Hi-net自動処理震源データを用いた余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測システムの開発(in Japanese), 2017 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Kagoshima Prefectural Citizens Exchange Center, Kagoshima City,
Japan, 26 October 2017.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). 日本の活断層カタログに対するBPTモデルの適切な推定と予測について(in Japanese), 2017
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kagoshima Prefectural
Citizens Exchange Center, Kagoshima City, Japan, 26 October 2017.
Kumazawa,
T.*, Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). 2016年熊本地震発生前後の九州地方地震活動の点過程モデルによる解析(in Japanese), 2017 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kagoshima
Prefectural Citizens Exchange Center, Kagoshima City, Japan, 26 October 2017.
Ogata,
Y. (2017). Extensions of the self-exciting model and causality analysis for
seismicity, Waseda International Symposium, Waseda University, Nishi-Waseda
Campus, Shinjuku Tokyo, Japan, 24 October 2017. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2017). 3D spatial models for seismicity beneath greater Tokyo
region, CSEP Workshop: Informing Earthquake Debates with CSEP Results, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm Springs, California, U.S.A., 9 September
2017. (Invited
lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2017). Exploring
magnitude forecasts of the next earthquakes, CSEP Workshop: Informing
Earthquake Debates with CSEP Results, Hilton Palm
Springs, Palm Springs, California, U.S.A., 9 September 2017. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2017). On
secular spatial seismicity, 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm
Springs, California, U.S.A., 9 September 2017.
Ogata, Y. (2017). Delaunay triangulation for smoothing
seismicity models, 2017 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Nanzan
University, Nagoya City, Japan, 5 September 2017.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Short-term earthquake forecast model
using foreshock discrimination and aftershock decay, 2017 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, Nanzan University, Nagoya City,
Japan, 5 September 2017.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2017). Monitoring of the
Seismicity before and after the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake with Point Process
Models, 2017 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Nanzan University, Nagoya City, Japan, 5 September 2017.
Matsu’ura, M.*, Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Uchida, N. (2017).
Reciprocal relationship between seismically estimated slip rates and
geodetically estimated slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces: Physical
interpretation and logical consequence, IAG-IASPEI 2017, Kobe International
Conference Center, Kobe, Japan, 1 August 2017.
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Spatial distribution of coefficients of variation and
Bayesian forecasts for recurrence intervals of earthquakes, 1st
International Conference on Econometrics and Statistics (EcoSta
2017), The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, 17 June
2017. (Invited Lecture)
Zhuang, J.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Evaluation Methods of Earthquake
Forecasts and earthquake predictions, International Workshop on Earthquake
Preparation Process 2017 - Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting -
(IWEP4), Chiba University, Chiba, Japan, 27 May 2017. (Invited Lecture)
Han,
P.*, Hattori, K., Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Statistical modeling of
earthquake temporal occurrences incorporating seismo-magnetic
data, International Workshop on Earthquake Preparation Process 2017 -
Observation, Validation, Modeling, Forecasting - (IWEP4), Chiba University,
Chiba, Japan, 27 May 2017.
Ogata, Y. (2017). HIST-ETAS models - revisited with emphasis on
background seismicity, Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical Union
Joint Meeting 2017, Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 24 May 2017.
Han,
P.*, Zhuang, J., Hattori, K. and Ogata, Y. (2017). Earthquake modeling
incorporating non-seismic data, Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical
Union Joint Meeting 2017, Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall,
Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2017.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Short-term forecast by foreshock
discrimination models using magnitude frequency and spatio-temporal
features of seismic clusters, Japan Geoscience Union - American Geophysical
Union Joint Meeting 2017, Tokyo Bay Makuhari Hall,
Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2017.
Kumazawa, T.,
Ogata, Y.* and Tsuruoka, H. (2017). Aftershock analysis of the 2016
Kumamoto earthquakes (in Japanese), The 215th Meeting of Coordinating Committee
for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 19 May 2017.
Nomura, S. and
Ogata, Y.* (2017). BPT model forecast based on the recent paleoearthquake
catalog (in Japanese), The 215th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 19 May 2017.
Ogata,
Y. (2017). Forecasting of a large earthquake – An outlook of the research, Waseda International Symposium, Waseda
University, Nishi-Waseda Campus, Shinjuku Tokyo,
Japan, 28 February 2017. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2017). Predicting
seismic activity beneath the Greater Tokyo Area, 10th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te
Papa Tongarewa, Wellington, New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Ogata,
Y. (2017). Towards the implementation of the probability forecast of large
earthquakes, 10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10),
Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa, Wellington,
New Zealand., 21 February 2017. (Invited lecture)
Shcherbakov, R.*, Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.
(2017). The Magnitude of the Extreme Aftershock, 10th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te
Papa Tongarewa, Wellington, New Zealand., 22 February 2017.
Tsuruoka, H.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Development of
Seismicity Analysis software: XETAS, 10th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology (StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te Papa
Tongarewa, Wellington, New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Strader, A.*, Ogata, Y., Hirata, N., Tsuruoka,
H. and Schorlemmer, D. (2017). Resolving Stress Singularities: a Retrospective
Japan Rate-and-State Aftershock Forecast, 10th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te
Papa Tongarewa, Wellington, New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2017).
Statistical Monitoring of the Seismicity before and after the Kumamoto
Earthquakes, 10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10),
Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa, Wellington,
New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Han, P.*, Zhuang, J., Hattori, K. and Ogata,
Y. (2017). Preliminary study of earthquake models incorporating seismo-electromagnetic data, 10th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te
Papa Tongarewa, Wellington, New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2017). Statistical Discrimination of Foreshocks and
Real-time Mainshock Forecasting, 10th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology (StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te Papa
Tongarewa, Wellington, New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki
K. and Aihara, K. (2017). Feasibility of automatic real-time aftershock
forecasting in Japan, 10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
(StatSei10), Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa,
Wellington, New Zealand., 21 February 2017.
Ogata,
Y. (2016). Probability forecasts based on multiple seismicity anomalies: Case
of the M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake of 2016, 2016 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union(AGU) Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 13 December 2016.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016).
Statistical Monitoring of the Seismic Activities before and after the
Kumamoto Earthquakes, 2016 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16 December 2016.
Han,
P.*, Zhuang, J., Hattori, K. and Ogata, Y. (2016). An interdisciplinary
approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting, 2016 Fall Meeting of the
American Geophysical Union(AGU) Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 13
December 2016.
Nomura, S.* and
Ogata, Y. (2016). Real-time Mainshock Forecast by Statistical Discrimination of
Foreshock Clusters, 2016 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union(AGU)
Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 13 December 2016.
Ogata, Y.
(2016).
On consecutive seismicity rate in Japanese inland (in Japanese),
The 213-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 11 November 2016.
Ogata, Y.*, Tsuruoka, H., Omi, T., Nomura, S.,
Kumazawa, T. and Aihara, K. (2016). Seismic activity before and after the 2016 Central Tottori Prefecture
earthquake (in Japanese), The 213-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 11 November 2016.
Ogata,
Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2016). Models for seismic
activity beneath the Greater Tokyo Area, Waseda
International Symposium, Waseda University, Nishi-Waseda Campus, Shinjuku Tokyo, Japan, 25 October 2016.
(Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2016). Probability forecast of the 2016 Kumamoto M7.3
earthquake (in Japanese), 2016 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Nagoya Congress Center, Nagoya City, Japan, 6 October 2016.
Ishibe,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2016). Correlation between the
co-seismic Coulomb stress changes and seismicity rate changes for three
megathrust earthquakes (in Japanese), 2016 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Nagoya Congress Center, Nagoya City, Japan, 5 October 2016.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Kato, A. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical Analysis
of the Earthquake Swarms following the Mie offshore Earthquake (M6.1) (in
Japanese), 2016 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Nagoya
Congress Center, Nagoya City, Japan, 5 October 2016.
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2016). Main Shock Probability Forecast of the 2016 Kumamoto
Earthquake by Foreshock Discrimination Models (in Japanese), 2016 Fall Meeting
of the Seismological Society of Japan, Nagoya Congress Center, Nagoya City,
Japan, 5 October 2016.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki,
K. and Aihara, K. (2016). Forecasting aftershocks using the Hi-net real time
hypocenter catalog (in Japanese), 2016 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Nagoya Congress Center, Nagoya City, Japan, 5 October 2016.
Ogata, Y. (2016). 2016年熊本地震(M7.3)に関する確率予測問題(in Japanese), 2016 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa City, Japan, 6 September 2016. (Invited
lecture)
Ogata, Y.*, Katsura,
K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2016). 3次元空間の地震活動モデル(in Japanese), 2016 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa City, Japan, 7 September
2016.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2016). 熊本地震前後の九州地方地震活動の点過程モデルによる解析(in Japanese), 2016 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa City, Japan, 5 September 2016.
Nomura, S*, Ogata, Y.,
Uchida, N. and Matsu’ura, M. (2016). 局所不連続スプラインを用いた太平洋プレート沈み込み速度の時空間分布の推定(in Japanese), 2016 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa City, Japan, 7 September
2016.
Ogata,
Y.*, Katsura, K., Tsuruoka, H. and Hirata, N. (2016). 3D spatial models for
seismicity beneath Kanto region, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 25 May 2016. (Invited lecture)
Ishibe, T.*, Ogata, Y., Tsuruoka, H. and Satake, K. (2016). Testing the Coulomb
stress triggering hypothesis for great subduction earthquakes using abundant
focal mechanisms, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 22 May 2016. (Invited
lecture)
Strader, A. E.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, N., Tsuruoka, H. and Schorlemmer, D. (2016). Resolving Stress
Singularities: a Retrospective Japan Rate-and-State Earthquake Forecast, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, Makuhari Messe
International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 May 2016.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Some
development on predicting earthquake swarms using volumetric strain records,
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, Makuhari Messe
International Exhibition Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 May 2016.
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2016). A Bayesian prediction for active faults using spatial
similarity of variation of recurence intervals (in
Japanese), Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 23 May 2016.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
(2016). Impact of automatic catalog quality on real-time aftershock
forecasting, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2016, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 May 2016.
Ogata, Y.*, Omi, T., Kumazawa, T., Nomura, S., Tsuruoka, H. and Aihara, K.
(2016). Seismicity anomalies before and after the 2016 M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto
earthquakes, probability evaluations of the M7.3 earthquake, and aftershock
forecasts (in Japanese), 第211回地震予知連絡会重点検討課題「平成28年（2016年）熊本地震」(in Japanese), The
211-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo,
Japan, 18 May 2016. (Invited lecture)
Kumazawa,
T. Ogata, Y*. Kato, A. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical analysis of the
swarm activity induced by the 2016 April earthquake of M6.1 at the southeast
off the coast of the Mie Prefecture (in Japanese), The 211-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 18 May 2016.
Kumazawa, T. Ogata,
Y*. and Tsuruoka, H. (2016). Statistical monitoring of seismicity in Kyushu
District before the occurrence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes of M6.5 and
M7.3 (in Japanese), The 211-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 18 May 2016.
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y*. (2016). Foreshock forecast probabilities of the M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake of 2016 (in Japanese), The 211-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 18 May 2016.
Ogata, Y. (2016). Provisional calculations of the probability forecast of the Kumamoto M7.3
earthquake (in Japanese), The 211-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 18 May 2016.
Omi, T. Ogata, Y.*, Tsuruoka, H. and Aihara, K. (2016). Probability aftershock
forecasting of the M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto earthquakes of 2016 (in Japanese), The 211-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 18 May 2016.
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2016). Spatial Distribution of the Coefficient of Variation
and Bayesian Forecast for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan, European Geosciences
Union (EGU) General Assembly 2016, Austria Center Vienna(ACV), Vienna, Austria,
19 April 2016.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda K. and Kobayashi, A. (2016). Analysis
of earthquake occurrence rates modulated by volcanic activities, ISI-ISM-ISSAS
Joint Conference 2016, Institute of Statistical Science Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 31 January 2016. (Invited (poster))
Kumazawa,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Analysis of Changing
Swarm Rate using Volumetric Strain, 2015 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center,
San Francisco, U.S.A., 14 December 2015.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2015). Spatial Distribution of
the Coefficient of Variation for the Paleo-Earthquakes in Japan, 2015
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A., 15 December 2015.
Ogata,
Y. (2015). Anomalies in space-time aftershock activity and their
interpretations (in Japanese), 2015 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Kobe International Conference Center, Kobe City, Japan, 26 October
2015.
Tsuruoka, H.* and Ogata, Y. (2015). Development of Seismicity Analysis
Tool: XETAS (in Japanese), 2015 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Kobe International Conference Center, Kobe City, Japan, 26 October 2015.
Kumazawa,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Earthquake
Swarms Rates in Izu East Region modulated by Volumetric Strain (in Japanese),
2015 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kobe International
Conference Center, Kobe City, Japan, 26 October 2015.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2015). Foreshock Discrimination with
Probability Density Ratio Estimation and its Implementation for Short-term
Forecast (in Japanese), 2015 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Kobe International Conference Center, Kobe City, Japan, 27 October 2015.
Omi,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K.
and Aihara, K. (2015). Forecasting aftershocks based on the Hi-net catalog 2
(in Japanese), 2015 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kobe
International Conference Center, Kobe City, Japan, 26 October 2015.
Ogata, Y. (2015). Foreshock probability forecasting, 2015 SCEC(Southern
California Earthquake Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm
Springs, California, U.S.A., 13-15 September 2015.
Strader,
A.E.*, Tsuruoka, H., Hirata, N., Ogata, Y., Schorlemmer, D. and Jackson,
D.D. (2015). Resolving Stress
Singularities: a Rate-and-State Japan Earthquake Forecast, 2015 SCEC(Southern
California Earthquake Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm
Springs, California, U.S.A., 13-15 September 2015.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki,
K. and Aihara, K. (2015). Aftershock forecasting by using the Hi-net automatic
hypocenter catalog in Japan, 2015 SCEC(Southern California Earthquake Center)
Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm Springs, California, U.S.A., 13-15
September 2015.
Ogata,
Y. (2015). Long-term earthquake prediction in and around Japan by a
hierarchical Bayesian space-time point process model (in Japanese), 2015
Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Okayama University, Okayama City, Japan, 8
September 2015.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting
the Earthquake Swarms Rates in Izu Region by Volumetric Strain (in Japanese),
2015 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Okayama University, Okayama City,
Japan, 9 September 2015.
Nomura,
S.* and Ogata, Y. (2015). Short-term earthquake forecast model with logistic discrimation of foreshocks (in Japanese), 2015 Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting, Okayama University, Okayama City, Japan, 7 September
2015.
Ogata, Y. (2015). Point process modelling: Tutorial with some topics in
statistical seismology,, 2015 International Workshop on Spatial and Temporal
Modeling from Statistical, Machine Learning and Engineering perspectives
(STM2015) and Workshop on Complex systems Modeling and Estimation Challenges in
big data (CSM2015), Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City,
Tokyo, Japan, 15 July 2015. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2015). Reviews on the pre- and post-seismicity of the Tohoku-Oki
mega-earthquake, and future long-term forecasts, 9th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (StatSei9), Arcona Hotel am Havelufer,
Potsdam, Germany, 17 June 2015. (Invited lecture)
Tsuruoka, H.* and
Ogata, Y. (2015). Development of Seismicity Analysis software: TSEIS – ETAS
module implementation, 9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
(StatSei9), Arcona Hotel am Havelufer, Potsdam,
Germany, 17 June 2015.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting changing rates of
swarm activity by volumetric strain changes, 9th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (StatSei9), Arcona Hotel am Havelufer,
Potsdam, Germany, 15 June 2015.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Shiomi, K., Enescu, B., Sawazaki, K. and Aihara, K.
(2015). Toward automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan, 9th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei9), Arcona Hotel am Havelufer, Potsdam, Germany, 17 June 2015. (Invited
lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2015). Forecasting seismicity after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2015, Makuhari Messe
International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2015. (Invited
lecture)
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015).
Predicting changing rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain (in Japanese),
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015, Makuhari Messe
International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2015.
Omi,
T.*, Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2015). Forecast uncertainty in
aftershock forecasting, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 24 May 2015.
Ogata, Y. (2015).
Monitoring seismicity anomalies by statistical models (in Japanese), The 207-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 May 2015.
Ogata, Y. (2015). Visualization
of seismic activity through statistical models (in Japanese), Workshop on
simulation visualization in data assimilation, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 17
March 2015. (Invited lecture)
Kumazawa, T.,
Ogata, Y.*, Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2015). Predicting changing
rates of swarm activity by volumetric strain changes (in Japanese), 第206回地震予知連絡会重点検討課題「兵庫県南部地震から20年 活断層研究の進展と課題」, The
206-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 February 2015. (Invited lecture)
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2015).
Spatial variation on earthquake interevent time distribution in Japan, Hokudan 2015 International Symposium on Active Faulting,
Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center,
Awaji City, Hyogo, Japan, 15 January 2015. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2014).
Comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock forecasting in observed and
simulated earthquake catalogs, 2014 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical
Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, CA, U.S.A., 16 December 2014.
(Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2014). Real-time foreshock probability forecasting
experiments in Japan, Southern California and Whole globe, 2014 Fall Meeting
of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, CA,
U.S.A., 16 December 2014.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2014).
Predicting offshore swarm rate changes by volumetric strain changes in Izu
Peninsula, Japan, 2014 Fall Meeting of
the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, CA,
U.S.A., 19 December 2014.
Nomura,
S.*, Ogata, Y. and Uchida, N. (2014). Space-time renewal model for repeating
earthquakes and slow slip before and after the major earthquakes in the
northeastern Japan subduction zone, 2014 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, CA, U.S.A., 19 December
2014.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Can we forecast 1-month span aftershock
activity from the first day data after the main shock?, 2014 Fall Meeting of
the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, CA,
U.S.A., 16 December 2014.
Ogata, Y. (2014). A prospect of
earthquake prediction research, 2014 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, TOKI MESSE Niigata Convention Center, Niigata
City, Japan, 25 November 2014.
Tsuruoka, H.* and Ogata, Y. (2014).
Implementation of ETAS functions to Tools for Seismicity (TSEIS), 2014
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, TOKI MESSE Niigata
Convention Center, Niigata City, Japan, 25 November 2014.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2014). Prediction of
the background seismicity rate for the earthquake swarm activities in Izu region, 2014 Fall Meeting of
the Seismological Society of Japan, TOKI MESSE Niigata Convention Center,
Niigata City, Japan, 24 November 2014.
Nomura, S.*, Ogata,
Y. and Uchida, N. (2014). Space-time renewal process model for repeating
earthquakes and slow slip in the northeastern Japan subduction zone, 2014
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, TOKI MESSE Niigata
Convention Center, Niigata City, Japan, 26 November 2014.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Sawazaki, K., Aihara, K. and Enescu, B. (2014). Forecasting
aftershocks based on the Hi-net catalog, 2014 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, TOKI MESSE Niigata Convention
Center, Niigata City, Japan, 25 November 2014.
Ogata, Y.* and
Tanaka, U. (2014). Searching for locations of parents from superposed clusters,
The 2014 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan,
14 September 2014.
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2014). Estimating background
seismicity by a regression model from crustal deformation: Forecasting
earthquake swarms in volcanic regions, The 2014 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 14 September 2014.
Nomura, S.*, and
Ogata, Y. (2014). Estimation of spatial distribution for aperiodicity of
recurrence intervals on active faults in Japan, The 2014 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 14 September 2014.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y.
and Aihara, K. (2014). Bayesian approach for probabilistic forecasting of
aftershock activity, The 2014 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, University of
Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 15 September 2014.
Ogata, Y. (2014).
Foreshock probability forecasting, 2014 SCEC(Southern California Earthquake
Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm Springs, CA, U.S.A., 7-10
September 2014.
Tsuruoka, H. and Ogata, Y.*, (2014). OEF and CSEP in
Japan, SCEC CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop: Next Steps for Testing Operational
Earthquake Forecasts and Seismic Hazard Models (by invitation
only) , 2014 SCEC(Southern
California Earthquake Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm
Springs, CA, U.S.A., 6 September 2014 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2014)．Panel Discussion for ComCat Overview and
Real-Time DATA, SCEC CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop:
Next Steps for Testing Operational Earthquake Forecasts and Seismic Hazard
Models (by invitation only), 2014 SCEC(Southern California Earthquake Center)
Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs, Palm Springs, CA, U.S.A., 6 September
2014. (Panel Discussion)
Kumazawa, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A.(2014). Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate
Changes by Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan, 2014
SCEC(Southern California Earthquake Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm
Springs, Palm Springs, CA, U.S.A., 7-10 September 2014.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Bayesian forecasting of aftershocks by ETAS
model, 2014 SCEC(Southern California Earthquake Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton
Palm Springs, Palm Springs, CA, U.S.A., 7-10 September 2014.
Ogata, Y. (2014). A prospect of
earthquake prediction research (in Japanese), ERI Seismic Activity Seminar,
Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 1 September
2014. (Seminar)
Varini*, E. and
Ogata, Y. (2014). Statistical modelling for identificaion
of earthquake clusters, Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering
and Seismology, Istanbul Convention & Exhibition Centre, Istanbul, Turkey,
24-29 August 2014.
Ogata, Y. (2014). Evaluating
predictive ability of background seismicity, aftershocks and induced
earthquakes (in Japanese), 第204回地震予知連絡会重点検討課題「地震･地殻変動予測能力の現状評価」, The 204-th Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2014.
Ogata, Y. (2014).
Modeling of temporal and spatial non-homogeneity for space-time earthquake
databases, 2014 International Workshop on Spatial and Temporal Modeling from
Statistical, Machine Learning and Engineering perspectives (STM2014) and
Workshop on Complex systems Modeling and Estimation Challenges in big data
(CSM2014), Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan,
29 July 2014 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2014). Foreshocks and
short-term forecasting: comparisons between real seismicity and synthetic
catalogs, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2014, PACIFICO YOKOHAMA, Yokohama
City, Japan, 2 May 2014 (Invited lecture).
Kumazawa, T.*,
Ogata, Y., Kimura, K., Maeda, K. and Kobayashi, A. (2014). Estimating
earthquake swarms in volcanic regions (in Japanese), Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2014, PACIFICO YOKOHAMA, Yokohama City, Japan, 1 May 2014.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2014).
Spatial Variation on Recurrence-time Distribution of Paleoearthquakes
and Its Influence for Long-term Forecast (in Japanese), Japan Geoscience Union
Meeting 2014, PACIFICO YOKOHAMA, Yokohama City, Japan, 29 April 2014.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2014). Adaptive forecasting of aftershock activity
after the main shock, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2014,
Austria Center Vienna, Vienna, Austria, 28 April 2014.
Omi, T., Ogata, Y.*, Hirata, Y.
and Aihara, K. (2014). Probability aftershock forecasting by the ETAS
model (in Japanese), The 202-nd Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 17 February 2014.
Ogata, Y. (2013). The
aftershock activity of M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in and around outer-rise region
(2011.3.11–2013.10.26) (in Japanese), The 201-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). Aftershock
activity of the 13 April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 in Awaji Island
(2011.4.13–2013.11.8) (in Japanese), The 201-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 22 November 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013).
Real-time foreshock forecasts and their evaluations, poster presentation, The
3rd International Symposium on Innovative Mathematical Modelling, Komaba
Research Campus, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 12-15, November 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). Real-time
probability discrimination of foreshock-type earthquakes (in Japanese), 2013
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Yokohama City, Japan, 8
October 2013.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Forecasting aftershocks after the main shock
by using the ETAS model (in Japanese), 2013 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Yokohama City, Japan, 8 October 2013.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2013). Non-stationary ETAS models for nonstandard earthquake occurrences (in
Japanese), 2013 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Yokohama
City, Japan, 9 October 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013).
Foreshocks forecasting by statistical discrimination of earthquake clusters (in
Japanese), The 2013 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Osaka University
Toyonaka Campus, Toyonaka City, Japan, 11 September 2013.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y.
and Aihara, K. (2013). A state-space modelling for forecasting early aftershock
probability from incompletely detected real-time occurrence data (in Japanese),
The 2013 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Osaka University Toyonaka Campus,
Toyonaka City, Japan, 11 September 2013.
Kumazawa, T.*
and Ogata, Y. (2013). The non-stationary ETAS model and its application to the
seismicity anomalies induced by the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), The
2013 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Osaka University Toyonaka Campus,
Toyonaka City, Japan, 11 September 2013.
Nomura, S.*, Ogata, Y. and
Uchida, N. (2013). Non-stationary renewal model for repeating earthquakes (in
Japanese), The 2013 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Osaka University
Toyonaka Campus, Toyonaka City, Japan, 11 September 2013.
Omi, T., Ogata, Y.*,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Real-time prediction of the probability of
aftershocks after the main shock (in Japanese), The 200-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 21 August 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). 短期予測と統計モデル, 第200回地震予知連絡会重点検討課題「地震の短期予測の現状と評価」 (in Japanese), The
200-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo,
Japan, 21 August 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). A
Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research, 8th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology (Statsei8), Peking University, Beijing, China, 10 August
2013 (Pre-Workshop Tutorial).
Ogata, Y. (2013). Real-time
foreshock discrimination, 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
(Statsei8), Peking University, Beijing, China, 13 August 2013 (Invited
lecture).
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Estimating the statistical models of
earthquake occurrences from the data of incompletely detected earthquakes, 8th
International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8), Peking University,
Beijing, China, 13 August 2013.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2013). Analysis of Induced seismicity after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by
non-stationary ETAS models, 8th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology (Statsei8), Peking University, Beijing, China, 12 August 2013.
Nomura, S.*, Uchida,
N. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Spatio-temporal renewal
model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of slip rate on the upper surface
of the subducting Pacific Plate, 8th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology (Statsei8), Peking University, Beijing, China, 12 August 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). Real-time
probability forecast of a large earthquake by statistical discrimination of
foreshocks, 4th ERI Workshop on Earthquake prediction system based on
evaluation of seismic activity - Earthquake forecasting before and after the
Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 11 July 2013.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Probability forecasting of aftershocks
immediately after the main shock taking the detection rate of earthquakes into
account, 4th ERI Workshop on Earthquake prediction system based on evaluation
of seismic activity - Earthquake forecasting before and after the Tohoku-Oki
Earthquake, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan,
11 July 2013.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2013). Analysis of abnormal seismic
activity by non-stationary ETAS model, 4th ERI Workshop on Earthquake
prediction system based on evaluation of seismic activity - Earthquake
forecasting before and after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, Earthquake Research
Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 12 July 2013.
Nomura, S.*, Uchida,
N. and Ogata, Y. (2013). Analysis of repeating earthquakes in the subduction
zone off the Pacific Ocean by the space-time renewal process model, 4th ERI
Workshop on Earthquake prediction system based on evaluation of seismic
activity - Earthquake forecasting before and after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake,
Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 11 July 2013.
Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata,
Y.* (2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and statistical analysis of
repeating earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from
July 15, 1993 till March 10, 2011, on emphasis of before and after major
earthquakes (in Japanese), The 199-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 30 May 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013).
Long-term aftershock activity of the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 until the 13
April 2013 earthquake of M6.3 near Awaji Island (in Japanese), The 199-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 30 May 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). Research
towards practical earthquake forecasting, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2013, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 21 May 2013 (Invited lecture).
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y.,
Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K. (2013). Estimating statistical models of seismicity
under incomplete detection of earthquakes, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2013,
Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 21 May 2013.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2013). Analysis of Induced seismicity after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by
non-stationary ETAS models, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2013, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 21 May 2013.
Nomura, S.*, Ogata,
Y. Nadeau, R.M., and Uchida, N. (2013). Spatio-temporal
renewal model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of slip rate on plate
boundaries, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2013, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 21 May 2013.
Nomura, S.*, Uchida, N. and
Ogata, Y. (2013). Spatio-temporal renewal model for
repeating earthquakes and analysis of slip rate on plate boundaries, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2013, Makuhari Messe
International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 21 May 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013).
History-dependent magnitude forecast by statistical discrimination of
foreshocks, SCEC/CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions,
Davidson Conference Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA,
U.S.A., 7 May 2013 (Invited lecture).
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2013). Analysis of Induced seismicity after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by
non-stationary ETAS models, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly
2013, Austria Center Vienna, Vienna, Austria, 9 April 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013).
Aftershock activity of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake (2011.3.11 – 2013.2.2) (in
Japanese), The 198-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 18 February 2013.
Nomura, S., Uchida, N. and Ogata,
Y.* (2013). Nonstationary space-time BPT model, and analysis of repeating
earthquakes on the upper surface of the subducting Pacific Plate from July 15,
1993 till March 10, 2011 (in Japanese), The 198-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 18 February 2013.
Ogata, Y. (2013). A prospect
of earthquake prediction research, The Second International CORSSA Workshop,
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 22
January 2013 (Invited lecture).
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2013). Analysis of Induced seismicity after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by
non-stationary ETAS models, The Second International CORSSA Workshop, The
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 24 January
2013 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2012). Seismicity
anomaly that preceded the 2004 Sumatra earthquake M9.1 (in Japanese), The
197-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 21 November 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012). Earthquake
prediction and probability and statistics, Invited lecture in science and
mathematics student support project " Training program and excavation of
Science and mathematics students with active learning motivation", Faculty
of Science, Shinshu University, Matsumoto city, 31 October 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012).
Prospective forecasts and retrospective analysis of triggered seismicity (in
Japanese), 2012 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Hakodate
City, Japan, 19 October 2012.
Omi, T.*, Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y.
and Aihara, K. (2012). Real-time estimation of the detection rate of
earthquakes, and its application to forecasting of aftershock hazard (in
Japanese), 2012 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Hakodate
City, Japan, 17 October 2012.
Kumazawa, T.*
and Ogata, Y. (2012). Seismicity Anomalies Estimated by Non-Stationary ETAS
Models, 2012 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Hakodate City,
Japan, 19 October 2012.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2012). Detecting seismicity anomalies with nonstationary ETAS model, The 2012
Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Hokkaido University, Sapporo City, Japan,
11 September 2012.
Nomura, S.*, Ogata,
Y. and Nadeau, R.M. (2012). Space-Time Model and Analysis of Repeating
Earthquakes in Parkfield Segment, 2012 SCEC(Southern California Earthquake
Center) Annual Meeting, Hilton Palm Springs Resort, Palm Springs, CA, U.S.A.,
9-12 September 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012). Retrospective
analysis of the long-term prediction of seismic activities that are induced by
the 1995 Kobe earthquake of M7.3 (in Japanese), The 196-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 29 August 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012).
Long-term earthquake forecasts after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, 3rd ERI
Workshop on Earthquake prediction system based on evaluation of seismic
activity - Earthquake forecasting before and after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake,
Earthquake Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, 13 July 2012.
Hirata, Y.*, Omi, T., Ogata, Y.
and Aihara, K. (2012). Earthquake prediction using the distance of the point
processes, 3rd ERI Workshop on Earthquake prediction system based on evaluation
of seismic activity - Earthquake forecasting before and after the Tohoku-Oki
Earthquake, Earthquake Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, 12 July 2012.
Kumazawa, T.*
and Ogata, Y. (2012). Analysis of seismic activity in the Tohoku inland region
after the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by an extened ETAS
model, 3rd ERI Workshop on Earthquake prediction system based on evaluation of
seismic activity - Earthquake forecasting before and after the Tohoku-Oki
Earthquake, Earthquake Research Institute, Univ. of Tokyo, 13 July 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012). Residual
Analysis in Statistical Seismology and Discovering Seismicity Anomalies, The
2nd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting, Tsukuba
City, Japan, 3 July 2012 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2012).
Some Issues and Proposals for Operational Space-Time Forecasting and Their
Evaluations, SCEC CSEP Workshop: Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake
Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting,
Rancho Las Palmas Resort, Rancho Mirage, CA, U.S.A., 6 June 2012 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2012). Long- and
intermediate space-time forecast in Japanese Islands induced by the 2011
Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), The 195-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 30 May 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012).
Activity of shallow very-low-frequency earthquakes around Japan (in Japanese),
The 195-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 30 May 2012.
Ogata, Y. (2012). Long-term
probability forecast of the regional seismicity that was induced by the M9
Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2012, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 20 May 2012.
Kumazawa, T.*
and Ogata, Y. (2012). The modified ETAS analysis on earthquake swarms induced
by the Tohoku earthquake, Japan Geosciences Union Meeting 2012, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 21 May 2012.
Nomura, S.* and Ogata, Y. (2012).
Bayesian forecast with uncertain occurrence data in a BPT renewal process,
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2012, Makuhari Messe
International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 22 May 2012 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2012). ベイズ統計の最前線, 2011年度学術交流会講演, The Graduate
University for Advanced Studies [SOKENDAI], Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan, 22 March
2012 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2012). 統計数理と地震と, Statistical
Mathematics Seminars, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City,
Tokyo, Japan, 14 March 2012 (定年退任最終講演).
Ogata, Y. (2012).
Delaunay-based Bayesian seismicity models: Introduction to a program package,
International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability
forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 14 March 2012 (Invited lecture).
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y.
(2012). Detecting misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies, International
symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for
earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo,
Japan, 13 March 2012 (Invited lecture).
Nomura, S.*, Ogata,
Y. and Nadeau, R. (2012). Space-time models of repeating earthquakes in
Parkfield segment, International symposium on statistical modeling and
real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 13 March 2012 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2012). Modeling of
earthquake occurrence for predicting seismic activity and discovering
seismicity anomalies, ESF-JSPS Frontier Science Conference Series for Young
Researchers, The Four Seasons Hotel Tokyo at Chinzan-so,
Tokyo, Japan, 1 March 2012 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011).
Diagnosis of seismic anomalies and stress changes: Case studies from the recent
earthquakes in and around Japan, Workshop on Statistical and Physical Modelling
of Earthquake Processes, GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, NewZealand,
27 October 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). The M9
Tohoku-Oki earthquake and statistical seismology, Seminar series in honour of David Vere-Jones, Waikanae, NewZealand,
26 October 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). Aseismic
slips assumed for the relative quiescence and activation and for the transient
anomalies of the geodetic time series of distances between GPS stations (in
Japanese), 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka
Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 13
October 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). Tohoku
earthquake: foreshocks, aftershocks and triggered activities and quiescence for
long-term seismic activity in and around Japan (in Japanese), 2011 Fall Meeting
of the Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center
"GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 14 October 2011.
Ogata, Y.* and
Katsura, K. (2011). Operational probability foreshock forecasts up until the M9
Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP",
Shizuoka City, Japan, 14 October 2011.
Kumazawa, T.* and
Ogata, Y. (2011). Estimating misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies, 2011
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention &
Arts Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 13 October 2011.
Nomura, S.* and
Ogata, Y. (2011). Space-time structure of repeating microearthquakes at
Parkfield, 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka
Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 13
October 2011.
Matsu'ura, M.*, Noda,
A., Terakawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Inelastic
Deformation of Island-Arc Crust and Generation of Intraplate Earthquakes:
Background Tectonic Stress Fields, 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP",
Shizuoka City, Japan, 13 October 2011.
Terakawa,
T.*, Hashimoto, C., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura, M.
(2011). Mechanism Driving lnduced Seismic Sequences
After the 2011 0ff the PacifIc Coast of Tohoku
Earthquake, 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka
Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 12
October 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). 東北地方太平洋沖地震と統計地震学, (in Japanese), The
2011 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Ito Campus of Kyushu University,
Fukuoka City, Japan, 5 September 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). 松本付近の余震について(in
Japanese), The 192-nd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). 東北沖M9地震の余震活動モニタリングについて(in Japanese),
The 192-nd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011).
Seismic and geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region:
Applications of the ETAS model, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS) 8th
Annual Meeting, Taipei International Convention Center, Taipei, Taiwan, 10
(8-12) August 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). Preshock activity and quiescence for
long-term seismic activity in and around Japan (in Japanese),
The 191-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 13 June 2011.
Ogata, Y.* and Kumazawa, T. (2011). Tohoku earthquake: aftershock activity
and triggered activities in the eastern Honshu area (in Japanese), The 191-st
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 13 June 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational
probability foreshock forecasts up until Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese),
The 191-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 13 June 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011).
Anomalous seismic activities before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki
Earthquake, 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7),
Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 25 (25-27) May 2011
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). Prospective
foreshock forecasting experiment during the last 17 years, 7th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7), Nomikos Conference Center, Thera
(Santorini), Greece, 25-27 May 2011.
Kumazawa,
T. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Smoothing for the nonstationarity
with ETAS clustering, 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
(Statsei7), Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 25-27 May
2011.
Matsu'ura, M.*, Noda,
A., Terakawa T. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Inelastic
Deformation of Island-Arc Crust and Generation of Intraplate Earthquakes: Basic
Ideas, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2011, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (22-27) May 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). 前兆について：前震活動と広域的静穏化(in
Japanese), The 190-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 26 April 2011.
Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa,
T. (2011). 余震と誘発地震(in Japanese),
The 190-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 26 April 2011.
Nanjo, K.Z.,
Tsuruoka, H., Schorlemmer, D., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ishigaki, Y., Jordan,
T.H., Kasahara, K., Obara, K., Ogata, Y., Shiomi, K., Yokoi, S. and Zhuang, J. (2011).
Recent progress of the CSEP earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan:
Strategy and preliminary results of testing against the aftershock sequence of
the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, Seismological Society of
America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting, Memphis, U.S.A., 14 (13-15) April 2011.
Jordan, T.H., Gerstenberger,
M.C., Hirata, N., Jackson, D.D., Liukis, M., Maechling, P.J., Marzocchi, W., Nanjo, K.Z., Ogata, Y.,
Rhoades, D.A., Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D. (2011). Implications of recent
events for CSEP testing of earthquake forecasts, Seismological Society of
America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting, Memphis, U.S.A., 15 (13-15) April 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Operational
foreshock forecasting: Fifteen years after, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 15 (13-17) December 2010.
Sugaya, K., Hiramatsu, Y.,
Furumoto, M., Katao, H. and Ogata, Y. (2010). On the c-values of the off-fault
aftershocks triggered by the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 15 (13-17) December 2010.
Chu, A., Ogata, Y.
and Katsura, K. (2010). An improved statistical solution for global seismicity
by the HIST-ETAS approach, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 16 (13-17) December 2010.
Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y.
(2010). Seismicity activation before the mega-earthquake of 26 December 2004
based on Epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 15 (13-17) December 2010.
Nomura, S. and Ogata,
Y. (2010). Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive
performance for a small sample size, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 16 (13-17) December 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Empirical Bayes
estimation of the space-time ETAS model with location-dependent parameters for
forecasting seismic activity in a wide geophysical region, Grant-in-Aid for
Scientific Research (A) International Symposium on Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, The Conference Hall of The Kamakura
Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kamakura City, Japan, 5 (4-6) November 2010.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Maximum weighted likelihood estimates for spatiotemporal
point processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) International
Symposium on Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal
Data, The Conference Hall of The Kamakura Chamber of Commerce and Industry,
Kamakura City, Japan, 4 (4-6) November 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Evaluating
probability forecasts of earthquakes by the expected relative entropy, ERI
Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan:
Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto
University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City,
Kyoto, Japan, 2 (1-2) November 2010.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Evaluating performance of earthquake prediction relative to a
baseline model through gambling scoring, ERI Workshop on "Earthquake
Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward Constructing Base-line
Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 2 (1-2) November 2010.
Sugaya, K. and Ogata, Y (2010).
The features of seismicity in central Honshu based on the hierarchical space-time ETAS model, ERI Workshop on
"Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward
Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto
University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City,
Kyoto, Japan, 1 (1-2) November 2010.
Bansal, A.R. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Seismicity activation before the mega-earthquake of 26
December 2004 based on Epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ERI
Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan:
Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto
University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City,
Kyoto, Japan, 1 (1-2) November 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Operational
Probability Forecast of Foreshocks (in Japanese), 2010 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima,
Hiroshima City, Japan, 28 October 2010.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). A reference framework for evaluating significance of
earthquake predictions, 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 29
October 2010.
Sugaya, K. and Ogata, Y. (2010).
The feature of seismicity based on the hierarchical space-time ETAS model (in
Japanese), 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
International Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 27 October
2010.
Ogata, Y. and
Adelfio, G. (2010). Hybrid Kernel Estimates of Space-Time Earthquake Occurrence
Rates Using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model, The 2010 Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda University, Tokyo,
Japan, 7 September 2010.
Chu, A. and Ogata, Y. (2010). On
the Relationship Between Lower Magnitude Thresholds and Bias in ETAS Parameter
Estimates, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda
University, Tokyo, Japan, 7 September 2010.
Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010). Model Selections for detection of seismicity
changes and precursory slips, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, 7 September 2010.
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010).
Bayesian forecasting of the BPT model using uncertain occurrence times, The
2010 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda
University, Tokyo, Japan, 7 September 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010).
Summary of intensive discussion subject for “Seismic activity”, The 187-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 20 August 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Space-time
heterogeneity in aftershock activity, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 28 (23-28) May 2010.
Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010). Precursory seismic anomalies and transient
crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku
earthquake, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 28 (23-28) May 2010.
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010).
A Bayesian predictor of recurrent earthquakes based on BPT model with slip
data, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (23-28) May 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010).
Modeling of temporal and spatial nonhomogeneity for
space - time processes, The Spring Korean Statistical Society Annual Meeting,
Statistics Center (Daejeon), Daejeon, Korea, 21 (20-22) May 2010, Keynote
lecture. (IL-SONG lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2010). Significant
improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline
seismicity, “Earthquake Hazards in Urban Areas” and “Toward Constructing
Forecast Systems of Earthquakes” -The 3rd SCEC-ERI joint workshop-, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo,
Japan, 16 (16-17) March 2010. (Invited
lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2010).
Researches on seismicity by statistical models -A review-, Seismology for the
blue earth and the white continent -A symposium on solid earth around
Antarctic-, National
Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa City,
Tokyo, Japan, 9 (8-9) March 2010. (special Invited lecture)
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010).
A Bayesian predictor based on prior distributions of BPT model with slip rates
(in Japanese), The 185-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 February 2010.
Kumazawa,
T. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Aseismic slip scenario for transient crustal
deformations around the southern fault before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland
earthquake (in Japanese), The 185-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 February 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Global
earthquake catalogs and long-range correlation of seismic activity, 2009 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A, 16 (14-18) December 2009. (Invited
lecture)
Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2009). Seismicity changes in Tohoku District before
the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake, 2009 Fall
Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco,
U.S.A., 18 (14-18) December 2009.
Llenos, A.L.,
McGuire, J.J. and Ogata, Y. (2009). Detecting Seismicity Rate Transients in the
Hokkaido Corner, 2009 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 14 (14-18)
December 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Seismicity
changes in the central and western district of Shizuoka Prefecture before the
August 2009 Earthquake of M6.5 at Suruga Bay, 2009 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Yoshida
Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 21
(21-23) October 2009.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y.
and Toda, S. (2009). Seismicity changes in Tohoku District before the 2008
Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake, 2009 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto
University, Kyoto, Japan, 21 (21-23) October 2009.
Nomura, S., Ogata,
Y., Toda,
S. and Komaki, F. (2009). Prior distributions of BPT distribution in renewal
process with slip rates and comparing their prediction accuracy, 2009 Fall
Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto University,
Kyoto, Japan, 23 (21-23) October 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Bayesian
spatial models for earthquake catalog, The 2009 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Kyotanabe Campus, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe City, Japan, 7 (6-9) September 2009.
Kumazawa,
T. and Ogata, Y. (2009). Analysis of sesimicity
anomalies by a point process model, The 2009 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Kyotanabe Campus, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe City, Japan, 8 (6-9) September 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Earthquake
forecast in Japanese Islands based on location-dependent b-values and
space-time ETAS model (in Japanese), The 183-rd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 21 August 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009).
Seismicity changes in the central and western district of Shizuoka Prefecture
before the August 2009 Earthquake of M6.5 at Suruga Bay and its aftershock
activity (in Japanese), The 183-rd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 21 August 2009.
Ogata,
Y. (2009). Modeling for immediate aftershock probability forecasting, The 1st
Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 29 (June
28-July 1) June 2009. (Invited
lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2009). Space-time ETAS model for forecasting
seismicity in and around Japan, International Symposium on Toward Constructing
Earthquake Forecast Systems for Japan, Earthquake
Research Institute, University
of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 27 May 2009.
Ogata,
Y. (2009). Space-time model for wide regional and global seismicity, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 20 (16-21) May
2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). A correction method of routinely determined
hypocenter coordinates in far offshore region (in Japanese), The 182-nd Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 May 2009.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S.
(2009). Seismicity changes in northern Tohoku District before the 2008
Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake (in Japanese), The
182-nd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
15 May 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Location Dependent Space-Time Models for Wide
Regional and Global Seismicity, The 6th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, Granlibakken Conference Center, Lake
Tahoe, CA, USA, 15 (12-16) April 2009. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. and Umino, N. (2009). Correction of routinely
determined hypocenter coordinates in far offshore region, The 6th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Granlibakken
Conference Center, Lake Tahoe, CA, USA, 12-16 April 2009.
Kumazawa,
T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2009). Seismicity Rate Changes Prior to the 2008
Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake of M7.2 in the
Neighboring Area, The 6th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Granlibakken Conference Center, Lake Tahoe, CA, USA, 12-16
April 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Space-time model for diagnosis of
wide regional and global seismicity, 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 17 (15–19) December 2008.
Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y.,
Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K. and
Jackson, D.D. (2008). Simulation studies on the differences between
spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock probabilities,
2008 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 17 (15–19)
December 2008.
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). The method to estimate a slip distribution
of a large earthquake based on the spatial distribution of its aftershocks and
rate- and state friction law: Further development, 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 16 (15–19) December 2008.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Space-time model for wide regional and global
seismicity, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical
Modeling and Analysis of Space-time
Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan, Naha City, Japan, 27
(27-28) November 2008.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Local
likelihood estimates for point processes with applications in detecting spatial
changes of seismicity in Japan, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan,
Naha City, Japan, 28 (27-28) November 2008.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Identification and estimation of
the generalized Neyman-Scott spatial cluster fields, Grant-in-Aid for
Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan,
Naha City, Japan, 27 (27-28) November 2008.
Noguchi,
S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Global Earthquake Catalogs and Long-Range Correlation
of Seismic Activity (1), 7th General Assembly of Asian Seismological Commission
and 2008 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Tsukuba International Congress Center
(EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba City, Japan, 27 (24-27) November 2008.
Ogata, Y. and Noguchi, S. (2008). Global Earthquake Catalogs and
Long-Range Correlation of Seismic Activity (2), 7th General Assembly of Asian
Seismological Commission and 2008 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Tsukuba International Congress
Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba City, Japan, 27 (24-27) November 2008.
Zhuang,
J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson,
D.D. (2008). Model dependent differences between background and triggered
earthquakes and their influences on foreshock probabilities, 7th General
Assembly of Asian Seismological Commission and 2008 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Tsukuba
International Congress Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba City, Japan, 27
(24-27) November 2008.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock
hazard (in Japanese), ISM Public Lecture, Large Earthquake and Forecasting,
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 4 November2008.
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Anomalies in seismic activity and transient crustal deformation, ESF-FWF Conference of New Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing
And Modelling A Multi-Scale System, Obergurgl
University Centre, Obergurgl, Austria, 20
(18-23) October 2008. (Invited
lecture)
Zhuang, J. and Ogata,
Y. (2008). Using weighted likelihood estimates to detect spatial seismicity
changes, ESF-FWF Conference of
New Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A Multi-Scale
System, Obergurgl University Centre, Obergurgl, Austria, 18-23 October
2008.
Iwata,
T., Toda, S., Ogata, Y. (2008). A spatial slip distribution of the 2005 Miyagi-oki earthquake derived from its aftershock activity and the
rate- and state friction law, ESF-FWF
Conference of New
Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A Multi-Scale
System, Obergurgl University Centre, Obergurgl, Austria, 18-23 October 2008.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Precursory
anomalies in seismicity (in Japanese),
Cooperative Research meeting on Physics for precursory phenomena,
Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
Kyoto University, Uji City,
Japan, 15 (15-16) October 2008.
(Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Searching missing parents: A Bayesian inference of the Neyman-Scott
type model (in Japanese), The 2008
Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Keio University, Yokohama
City, Japan, 10 (7-10) September
2008.
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2008). On- and off-fault aftershocks of
the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip preceding
the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting earthquake, 2008 Western Pacific
Geophysics Meeting, Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns, Australia,
1 (July 29-August 1) August 2008.
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Seismicity anomaly and geodetic anomaly (in Japanese), Cooperative
Research meeting on Physics of seismicity, statistical modeling and
forecasting, Earthquake Research
Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 17 (17-18) July 2008.
Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). On- and off-fault aftershocks of
the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip preceding
the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting earthquake (in Japanese), Cooperative
Research meeting on Physics of seismicity, statistical modeling and
forecasting, Earthquake Research
Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 17 (17-18) July 2008.
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008).
A spatial slip distribution of a large earthquake derived from a spatial
distribution of its aftershocks (in Japanese), Cooperative Research meeting on
Physics of seismicity, statistical modeling and forecasting, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 17
(17-18) July 2008.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Seismicity shadows and stress shadows in
aftershock activity, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 (25-30) May
2008.
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008).
A spatial slip distribution of the 2005 Miyagi-oki
earthquake derived from spatial distribution of the aftershocks, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 30 (25-30) May
2008.
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2008). On- and Off-fault Aftershocks of
the 2006 Kuril Island Subduction Earthquake Toggled by a Slow Slip Preceding
the 2007 Great Outer-rise Normal Faulting Earthquake (in Japanese), The 177-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 19 May 2008. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Space-time ETAS Model,
CSEP Global Collaboration & Testing Meeting, Southern California Earthquake Center,
Los Angeles, USA, 21 April 2008. (Invited
lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2008). Seismicity anomaly and crustal deformation
anomaly, Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and
Earthquake Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NewZealand, 20 (18-22) February 2008. (Invited lecture)
Zhuang,
J., Savage, M.K., Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson
D.D. (UCLA) (2008). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes,
Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake
Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NewZealand,
21 (18-22) February 2008. (Invited lecture)
Iwata, T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). A spatial slip
distribution of the 1995 Kobe earthquake derived from its aftershock activity
and rate-and-state friction law, Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis
and Earthquake Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NewZealand, 19 (18-22) February 2008. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Modeling of heterogeneous datasets, Workshop on Data-driven and
Physically-based Models for Characterization of Processes in Hydrology,
Hydraulics, Oceanography and Climate Change, Institute for Mathematical
Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore, 9
(6-28) January 2008. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2008). Standard point-process models for prediction
and diagnosis of earthquake activity, Workshop on Data-driven and
Physically-based Models for Characterization of Processes in Hydrology,
Hydraulics, Oceanography and Climate Change, Institute for Mathematical
Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore,
11 (6-28) January 2008. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2007). Aseismic Slips
Preceding Ruptures Assumed for Anomalous Seismicities
and Crustal Deformations, 2007 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco,
USA, 12 (10–14) December 2007.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones,
D. (2007). Stochastic declustering:
visualizing of the family trees in earthquake catalogs with uncertainty, 2007
Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 10 (10-14)
December 2007. (Invited lecture)
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2007).
Modelling of the spatio-temporal distribution of
aftershocks based on rate- and state friction law, 2007 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 10 (10-14) December 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). A Bayesian MCMC inference for the Neyman-Scott
models (in Japanese), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on
Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time
Data, Okayama International Center, Okayama City, Japan, 30 (29-December 1)
November 2007.
Zhuang,
J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). A solution to the filtering problem on Neyman-Scott
point processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on
Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time
Data, Okayama International Center, Okayama City, Japan, 30 (29-December 1)
November 2007.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Parameter estimation and model selection of clustering spatial models
(in Japanese), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on
Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time
Data, Okayama International Center, Okayama City, Japan, 30 (29-December 1)
November 2007.
Ogata,
Y. (2007). Bayesian modeling for nonhomogeneoous
datasets (in Japanese), Cooperative
Research meeting on Seismicity Models and Earthquake Probabilities,
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 8 (8-9) November 2007.
Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones D.,
Ogata Y. and Jackson D.D. (2007). Difference between background and triggered
earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities, Cooperative Research meeting on Seismicity
Models and Earthquake Probabilities, Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Tokyo, Japan, 9 (8-9) November 2007.
Ogata,
Y. (2007). On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous
seismicity and crustal changes around the source, and the feature of the
aftershock activity (in Japanese), 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Sendai International
Center, Sendai City, Japan, 26 (24-26) October 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). Precursory slips assumed for the quiescence and
activation and for the anomalous trend of the geodetic time series of distances
between GPS stations (in Japanese), 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Sendai International
Center, Sendai City, Japan, 24 (24-26) October 2007.
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Modelling of spatio-temporal
distribution of aftershock rate based on rate- and state-dependent constitutive
friction law (in Japanese), 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Sendai International Center,
Sendai City, Japan, 26 (24-26) October 2007.
Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D.,
Christophersen, A., Jackson, D.D. (2007). Differences between spontaneous and
triggered earthquakes, 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Sendai International Center,
Sendai City, Japan, 26 (24-26) October 2007.
Zhuang,
J., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2007). Forecasting performance of the ETAS
model in Japan and California : A comparison, 2007 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Sendai
International Center, Sendai City, Japan, 25 (24-26) October 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of space-time aftershock point patterns relative to the Poisson process, The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Kobe University,
Kobe City, Japan, 7 (6-9) September 2007.
Zhuang,
J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Likelihood
based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott processes, The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Kobe University, Kobe City, Japan, 8 (6-9) September 2007.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Parameter estimation and model selection of clustering spatial models,
The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Kobe University,
Kobe City, Japan, 7 (6-9) September 2007.
Ogata,
Y. (2007). On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki
earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous seismicity and crustal changes around
the source, and the normal feature of the aftershock activity (in
Japanese), The 174-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
20 August 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). Diagnostic
Statistical Analyses to Detect the Seismicity and Geodetic Anomalies Relative to the Normal
Predictions, The 5th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology, "Ettore Majorana" Foundation and
Centre for Scientific Culture (EMFCSC), Erice, Sicily, Italy, 6 (May 31-June 6)
June 2007. (tutorial talk)
Iwata,
T., Imoto, M., Horiuchi, S. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Probabilistic estimation of
earthquake growth to a large one in an earthquake early warning system:
Re-estimation for the Nankai trough region, The 5th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, "Ettore Majorana" Foundation and Centre for Scientific
Culture (EMFCSC), Erice, Sicily, Italy, 31 May - 6 June 2007.
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity in space
and time measured by the ETAS model and stress changes, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 19 (19-24) May
2007.
Iwata,
T., Imoto, M., Horiuchi, S., and Ogata, Y. (2007). Probabilistic estimation of
earthquake growth to a catastrophic one for an earthquake early warning system:
Re-estimation for the Nankai Trough region, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 21 (19-24) May
2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity in space and time
measured by the ETAS model and stress changes (in Japanese), The 171-st Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 19 February 2007.
Ogata,
Y. (2007). Introduction of Short-term prediction experiments, Workshop on
Earthquake Predictability and Time-dependent Forecasting, Swiss Re Centre for
Global Dialogue, Rüschlikon, Switzerland, 29 (28-31)
January 2007. (keynote lecture)
Ogata, Y.
(2006). Detection of precursory slips on a fault by the quiescence and
activation of seismicity relative to the ETAS model and by the anomalous trend
of the geodetic time series of distances between GPS stations around the fault,
2006 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 11 (11–15)
December 2006.
Tanaka,
U. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Parameter estimation and model selection for
Neyman-Scott point processes, International workshop, Space-time statistical
analysis; theory and applications, Sanjo Conference Hall, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 13 (13-15) November 2006.
Ogata, Y. (2006). Detection of precursory slips on a fault by the
quiescence and activation of seismicity relative to the ETAS model and by the
anomalous trend of the geodetic time series of distances between GPS stations
around the fault (in Japanese), 2006 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Nagoya Congress Center, Nagoya City, Japan, 2 (October 31-November 2)
November 2006.
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Seismicity anomalies
measured by the ETAS model and stress changes, The 2006 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Kawauchi Campus of Tohoku
University, Sendai City, Japan, 6
(5-8) September 2006.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Statistical analysis of clustered point patterns, The 2006 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Kawauchi Campus of Tohoku University,
Sendai City, Japan, 6 (5-8) September 2006.
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the
2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake
of M7.0 (in Japanese), The 169-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
21 August 2006.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Probability distributions
associated foreshocks implied by clustering models for earthquake occurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting,
Beijing International Convention Center, Beijing, China, 24 (24-27) July 2006.
Zhuang,
J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2006). Statistical
modelling (tests) of the relationship between precursory phenomena and
earthquake ocurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International
Convention Center, Beijing, China, 27 (24-27) July 2006.
Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly from the predicted rate by
the ETAS model , Southern California Earthquake Center and Earthquake research
Institute Joint Workshop on Earthquakes in Urban Areas, Embassy Mandalay Beach Resort, Oxnard,
California, USA, 1 (1-3) June 2006. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the
ETAS model and relations to stress changes, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 14 (14-18) May
2006.
Ogata, Y. (2006). Review of the Akaike Information Criterion in the field of Earth Science: Prediction
of seismic activity and knowledge excavation by use of statistical models
(in Japanese), Symposium for the 75th anniversary of the foundation
of the Statistical Society of Japan, University
of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 7 (6-7) May 2006. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005
earthquake of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, 2006
International Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, National Central University, Taiwan, 6
(6-7) March 2006. (Invited lecture)
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Background and clustering
seismicity in the Taiwan region, 2006 International Workshop on Earthquake
Precursor, National Central
University, Taiwan, 6 (6-7) March 2006. (Invited lecture)
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Contributions of Professor Tokuji Utsu to statistical seismology and
recent developments, The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village
campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 10 (9-13) January 2006. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2006). Toward urgent forecasting of aftershock hazard:
Simultaneous estimation of b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter's law of the
magnitude frequency and changing detection rates of aftershocks immediately
after the mainshock, The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village
campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 10 (9-13) January 2006.
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest
aftershock (M5.8) with likely scenarios of precursory slips considered for the
stress-shadow covering the aftershock area, The 4th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 10
(9-13) January 2006.
Invited lectures
Seismological
Conferences
19th general assembly of
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vancouver, Canada, August 1987
(Invited speaker).
Point Process
Models for the Statistical Analysis of the Seismicity and Assessment of the
Time Varying Hazard, 25th general assembly of International Association of
Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior, Istanbul, Turkey, August 1989
(Invited speaker).
Three-Dimensional Spatial
Variation of b-Values of Magnitude Frequency Distribution Beneath the Kanto
District, Japan, Japan-US joint symposium on Fracture, Form and Fractals,
UCLA Lake Arrowhead, Los Angels, USA,
September 1989 (Invited speaker).
Quantative modeling of Earthquake
probabilities and intensities, Session on forecasting earthquake, International
Association of Forecasting, Wellington, New Zealand, August 1992 (Invited
speaker).
Point Process Procedures for
Detecting Anomalous Earthquake Activity, Workshop on Modeling Earthquake
Probabilities and Characteristics Earthquakes, Victoria University of
Wellington, New Zealand, August
1992 (Invited lecturer).
Statistical
features of foreshocks in comparison with other clusters, 27th general assembly
of International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior,
Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, January 1994 (Invited speaker
for the special symposium on Earthquake Prediction).
3rd Seismology summer school, Kawato Seminar Center for Tohoku area Universities, Miyagi
Prefecture, Japan, sponsored by the Seismological Society of Japan, August 1996
(Invited lecturer).
Empirical laws of
aftershocks and the ETAS model (in Japanese), ISM Public Lecture, Seismicity and Statistical
Seismology, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 6 November 1996.
Open Public Symposium on
"Feasibility of Long-Term Forecasting of Large Earthquakes",
organized by the Seismological Society of Japan, March 1997 (selected talk).
Session on
"Models and Methods in Seismic Hazard Assessment", the 23rd General
Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Nice, France, April 1998 (Invited lecture).
International Workshop on
Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning
sponsored by International Arctic Research Center, the University of Alaska in
Fairbanks, Alaska, USA, May 1998 (Invited talk and discussion).
Workshop organized
by State Seismological Bureau of China on "Statistical Seismology: Methods
and Software", Hang-Zhou, China, June 1998 (principal lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Some statistical
features of foreshocks, Japan-US Workshop on Foreshocks and Fracture, Heian
Kaikan, Kyoto, Japan, October 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Stochastic declustering of space-time
earthquake occurrences, Second International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, Victoria University of Wellington; New Zealand, 18-21 April 2001.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Analysis of seismic activity through point-process modeling, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a leader of
a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Which models seem most promising?, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial
lecture, and a leader of a FORUM).
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrences and Its
residual analysis, Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China, September 2002 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2003). A practical space-time model for regional seismicity,
Session on "Scaling, cascades and self-organized criticality in
Earthquakes: Damage mechanics and Predictability, 2003, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint
Assembly, Nice, France, 6-11 April 2003 (solicited presentation).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Seismicity-change-analysis
by a space-time point-process model, Third International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, Julriquilla, Queretaro;
Mexico, 4-10 May 2003 (Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in
Japanese), The 156-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction , Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 February 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Stress changes,
seismicity changes and statistical models, Workshop on Seismic Activity and
Probabilities of Major Earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai Area, Japan, Wadati
Memorial Hall, Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba,
Japan, 9-11 March 2004 (Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the
northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki
earthquake of M8.0, International
Conference in Commemoration of 5-th Anniversary of the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake,
Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan, 8-9 September 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2005). Seismicity anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes
(solicited), The General Assembly 2005 of the European Geosciences Union (EGU),
the Austria Center Vienna (ACV), Vienna, Austria, 24-29 April 2005 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Seismicity changes in western Japan associated with the great earthquakes near
Nankai trough and their contemporary implications, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 22-26 May 2005
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2006). Contributions
of Professor Tokuji Utsu to statistical seismology and recent developments, The
4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University
for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus,
Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 9-13 January 2006 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2006).
Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0
at the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, 2006 International Workshop
on Earthquake Precursor, National
Central University, Taiwan , 6-7 March 2006 (Invited lecture).
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006).
Background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region, 2006 International
Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, National
Central University, Taiwan, 6-7 March 2006 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2006).
Seismicity anomaly from the predicted rate by the ETAS model , Southern
California Earthquake Center and Earthquake research Institute Joint Workshop
on Earthquakes in Urban Areas, Embassy Mandalay Beach Resort, Oxnard,
California, USA, 1-3 June 2006 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2007). Introduction
of Short-term prediction experiments, Workshop on Earthquake Predictability and
Time-dependent Forecasting, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue, Rüschlikon, Switzerland, 28-31 January 2007 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2007). Diagnostic Statistical Analyses to Detect the
Seismicity and Geodetic Anomalies
Relative to the Normal Predictions, The 5th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, "Ettore Majorana" Foundation and Centre for Scientific
Culture (EMFCSC), Erice, Sicily,
Italy, 31 May -6 June 2007 (tutorial talk).
Statistical Conferences
Fall meeting of the Mathematical
Society of Japan, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan, October 1976 (special
lecture).
Workshop on
Analysis of Spatial Data, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney,
CSIRO, Australia, February 1982 (Invited speaker).
Open lectures at the 37th
anniversary of the founding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo,
Japan, 1982 (Invited lecture).
Likelihood Analysis
of Spatial Point Patterns, 4th Japan-USSR symposium on Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics, Tbilisi, USSR, August 1982 (selected paper).
Public lecture for Yokohama City
Citizens, Yokohama City University, Japan, 1983 (Invited lecturer).
Likelihood Analysis
of Point Processes and its Applications to Seismological Data, 44th session of
the ISI, Madrid, Spain, September 1983 (Invited speaker).
Point Process Model with
Linearly Parameterized Intensity for the Application to Earthquake Data,
Japan-USA Joint seminar on Time Series Analysis, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, May 1984 (Invited speaker).
Likelihood Analysis
of Spatial Point Patterns, 12th International Biometric Conference, Tokyo,
Japan, September 1984 (Invited speaker).
Likelihood Analysis of Spatial
Point Patterns, First national conference on Time Series Analysis, Beijin, China, November 1984 (Invited speaker).
The Likelihood
Analysis for Spatial Point Patterns, 13th International Biometric Conference,
University of Washington, Seattle, USA, July 1986 (Invited speaker).
Fall meeting of the Mathematical
Society of Japan, Chiba University, Japan, September 1986 (special lecture).
Some Statistical
Methods for Modeling of Point Process Data, Conference on Stochastic Methods
for Biological Intelligence, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
USA, October 1986 (Invited
speaker).
Statistical Models for
Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis Point Processes. Long Range Memory
Property of Earthquake Occurrences and Statistical Models for Standard Seismic
Activity, Meeting on Statistics of Stochastic Processes at Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut
Oberwolfach, FDR (West Germany), November 1986 (Invited speaker).
Statistical Analysis
of Point Process for Earthquake Prediction, Meeting of the Denmark Society of
Theoretical Statistics, Copenhagen, Denmark, April 1988 (Invited lecture).
Statistical Model for Standard
Seismicity and Detection of Anomalies by Residual Analysis, Conference on Statistics
in Space and Earth Science, Leuven, Belgium, August 1989 (Invited speaker).
Monte Carlo Method
for the Objective Bayesian Procedure (with Tanemura,
M.), International symposium on Analysis of Statistical Information,
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan , December 1989 (Invited speaker).
Likelihood Analysis
of Gibbs Point Processes in One and Two Dimensions (with Tanemura,
M.), International symposium on Analysis of Statistical Information,
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, December 1989 (Invited speaker).
Analysis of Temporal and Spatial
Heterogeneity of Magnitude Frequency Distribution Inferred From Earthquake
Catalogs, Meeting on Stochastic Geometry, Geometric Statistics and
Stereology, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut
Oberwolfach, Germany, December 1991 (Invited
speaker).
Statistical
Inferences of Point Processes Models Applied to Earthquake Data Sets, US-Japan
conference on Frontiers of Statistical Modeling, University of Kentucky,
Knoxville, USA, May 1992
(Invited speaker).
Lecture series for 10th
anniversary of the founding of Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, ROC, June 1992 (Invited lectures).
Statistical
Modeling of Earthquake Data, European Meeting of Statisticians, University of
Bath, UK, September 1992 (special Invited lecture).
Fall meeting of the Mathematical
Society of Japan, Nagoya University, Japan, October 1992 (Invited discussant
for the special lecture by T. Hayashi).
On the Epidemic Type
Aftershock Sequence model, US-Japan joint meeting on Time Series Analysis,
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, January
1993 (Invited speaker).
Comments on the Invited papers
in the session of "Time Series: Application and Theory, 49th session of
the ISI, Firenze, Italy, September 1993 (Invited discussant for Invited topic
meeting on Time Series: Application and Theory) (Brillinger, D., organizer).
Space-time modeling
of earthquake occurrences, International conference on Bayesian Inference
and its Applications, Fuji-Yoshida, Japan, December 1993 (Invited speaker).
17th Probability Summer School,
(supported by Academy of Finland), Lahti, Finland, May-June1994 (Invited
lecture series).
Meeting on Mathematische Stochastik,
Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut
Oberwolfach, Germany, March 1995 (Invited speaker).
50th session of ISI, Beijing,
China, August 1995 (Invited speaker for the meeting on Markov Fields and
Applications).
13th Australian
Statistical Conference (Sydney International Statistical Congress), Sydney,
Australia, July 1996 (Invited speaker for the topic on Spatial Statistics).
Empirical laws of aftershocks
and the ETAS model (in Japanese), ISM Public Lecture, Seismicity and Statistical Seismology, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo,
Japan, November 6, 1996.
Meeting on Point
processes: models and applications, Mathematisches
Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Germany, February 1997 (Invited paper).
Meeting on Mathematische
Stochastik, Mathematisches
Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Germany, March 1997 (Invited paper).
51th Session of the
ISI in Istanbul, Turkey, August 1997 (Invited discussant at the two Invited
paper meetings organized by the international Astronomical Union and Bernoulli
Society, respectively).
International Summer School of
Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan
Village, Hayama, Japan, September 1997 (Invited lecture).
International
Symposium on "Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability",
December 1997, (organized by the Indian Statistical Institute, coorganized by Bernoulli Society), Invited paper on the
topic of "Earthquake Modeling and Prediction".
The Joint Statistical Meetings,
ASA-ENAR-WNAR-IMS-SSC, the Session on Modeling and Model Selection - Theory and
Applications, Dallas, Texas, USA, August 1998 (Invited lecture).
International
Symposium, on Probability and Statistics and Their Applications, Hanoi,
Vietnam, June 9-11, 1999 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Evaluation of high dimensional Bayesian models: Two computational
method, Workshop on Information-Based Induction Science, Shuzenji,
Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, July 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2000). Spatially heterogeneous space-time modeling for seismic activity
and space-time residual analysis for point processes, Research Symposium:
Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, Australian National
University, Canberra, Australia, September 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Theoretical
problems on GIS: Some problems on spatial statistics (in Japanese), The third
Symposium of the Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo,
Sanjo Kaikan, University of Tokyo, Japan, September 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences, Meeting
on Stochastic in the Sciences, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Germany, 17-21 March 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal seismic
activity and its residual analysis, Symposium in honor of David Vere-Jones,
Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, April 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal
seismic activity and its residual analysis, Japan-U.S. Seminar on Statistical
Time Series Analysis, Shiran-Kaikan, Kyoto, Japan, 18-22 June 2001 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). The 51st Symposium on Science of Form, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 27-28 July 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Practical extreme value analyses for seismicity,
International Symposium on Extrem Value Analysis:
Theory and Practice, Leuven, Belgium, 5-10 August 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modeling of clustered space-time point processes in seismology,
Session on Spatial Statistics at the 2001 Annual Meeting of Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (IMS), Atlanta, Georgia, USA, 5-9 August 2001 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of seismicity, Session on
Statistics for Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Processes, the 53rd Session of the
International Statistical Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 23-29 August
2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Annealing MCMC integration with application to likelihood
computation of Bayesian models, International Symposium on New Trends in
Optimization and Computational Algorithms (NTOC2001), Kyodai Kaikan, Kyoto,
Japan, 9-13 December 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Space-time analysis of earthquake catalog, Meeting on
Stochastic Geometry, Spatial Statistics and Statistical Physics, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut
Oberwolfach, Germany, 10-16 February 2002 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Analysis of seismic activity through point-process modeling, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a leader of
a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Which models seem most promising?, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a leader of
a FORUM).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrence, Point
processes--theory and applications, the Banff International Research Station
for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS), Banff, Canada, 21-26 June
2003 (Invited).
Ogata, Y. (2003). Space-Time Model of Regional Seismicity for Revealing
Temporal Anomalies, International Symposium, Science of Modeling; The 30th
Anniversary of the Information Criterion(AIC), Pacifico Yokohama, 14-17
December 2003 (Invited lecture).
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Visualizing goodness-of-fit of point-process models for
earthquake clusters, Analysis of Natural and Social Phenomena: Data Science and
System Reduction; an international workshop of the 21st Century COE Program at
Keio University, Pan Pacific Hotel, Yokohama, Japan, 21-23 March 2004 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical models of point processes and prediction
and discovery in seismic activity (in Japanese), Spring Meeting of the
Mathematical Society of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, 30 March 2004 (specially
organized lecture).
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic analyses of space-time branching processes
for earthquakes, International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modeling and
its Applications (SPPA), Castellon Spain, 4-8 April 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection
of crustal stress changes, The 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for
Mathematical Statistics and Probability, and 67th Annual Meeting of the
Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Barcelona, Spain, 25-29 July 2004
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2006). Review of the Akaike Information Criterion in the field
of Earth Science: Prediction of seismic activity and knowledge excavation by
use of statistical models (in Japanese), Symposium for the 75th
anniversary of the foundation of the Statistical Society of Japan, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 6-7 May 2006 (Invited lecture).
Conference talks (-2005)
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2005). The largest event in earthquake clusters and relationship to
foreshocks, 2005 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco,
USA, 8 (5–9) December 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in
the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki
earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity
changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), 2005 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Hokkaido University, Sapporo City, Japan, 20
(19-21) October 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock
(M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western
Fukuoka, Kyusyu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the
stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), 2005 Fall Meeting of
the Seismological Society of Japan, Hokkaido University, Sapporo City, Japan,
19 (19-21) October 2005.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
A study on the discrimination of foreshocks and other types of earthquakes by
using stochastic reconstruction (in Japanese), 2005 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Hokkaido University, Sapporo City, Japan, 19
(19-21) October 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Toward urgent forecasting of aftershock hazard – Simultaneous estimation of
b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter’s law of the magnitude frequency and changing
detection rates of aftershocks immediately after the mainshock, The 2005 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Hiroshima Prince Hotel, Hiroshima City, Japan, 13 (12-15) September 2005.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
Estimation of parameters for the Neyman-Scott spatial cluster model, The 2005 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Hiroshima Prince Hotel, Hiroshima City, Japan, 13 (12-15) September 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Seismic activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the
16th August 2005 interplate earthquake of M7.2 off
the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, and the aftershock activity of the M7.2
earthquake (in Japanese), The 165-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Aftershock
activities of recent conspicuous earthquakes in and near Japan (in Japanese),
The 165-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Prediction and discovery of seismic activity, Meeting of Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama
University, Okayama, Japan, 27 July
2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity
changes in western Japan associated with the great earthquakes near Nankai
trough and their contemporary implications, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International
Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 22 (22-26) May 2005 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2005). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of
earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 23 (22-26) May 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity
anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (22-26) May 2005.
Murata, Y. and
Ogata, Y. (2005). Surficial density estimation from gravity data using Delaunay
triangular network”, 2005 Joint Meeting
for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 25 (22-26) May
2005.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
Analyzing foreshock features by using stochastic reconstruction, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (22-26) May 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock
(M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western
Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the
stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), The 164-th Meeting of
Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 May
2005.
Ogata,
Y. (2005). Seismicity anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes
(solicited), The General Assembly 2005 of the European Geosciences Union (EGU),
the Austria Center Vienna (ACV), Vienna, Austria, 25 (24-29) April 2005
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity
changes in and around Kyushu District before the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 in the
western offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese), The 163-rd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 7 April 2005.
Ogata,
Y. (2005). Anomalies in the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004 Kushiro-Oki
earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido inland (in
Japanese), The 162-nd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 21, February 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2004). Synchronous seismicity-rate-changes from the predicted
rates by the ETAS model in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, 2004 Fall Meeting of the
American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West, San
Francisco, USA, 14 (13–17) December 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of
earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting, 2004
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center
West, San Francisco, USA, 14 (13–17) December 2004.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features
by stochastic reconstruction -- foreshocks, 2004 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 14
(13–17) December 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu
earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-term seismicity anomalies preceding the
rupture around the focal region (in Japanese), The 161-st Meeting of Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo,
Japan, 15 November 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2004). On the aftershock activity of the 2004 earthquake of
M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the Kii
peninsula, and constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and
space-time pattern of the aftershocks II (in Japanese), The 161-st Meeting of Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 15 November 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of
earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting (in
Japanese), The 161-st Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 November 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2004). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004 niigata-ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-tern seismicity anomalies preceding the rupture around the
focal region (in Japanese), The 160-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 4 November 2004.
Zhuang,
J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes
for earthquake occurrences, International workshop, Space-time statistical
analysis; theory and applications, Kagoshima, Japan, 3-6 November 2004.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Estimation of parameters for the
Neyman-Scott's spatial cluster model, International workshop, Space-time
statistical analysis; theory and applications, Kagoshima, Japan, 3-6 November
2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). On changes of statistical distribution of focal mechanisms of events
prior to the main ruptures (in Japanese), 2004 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Kyusyu University, Fukuoka, Japan, 10 (9-11)
October 2004.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Some features of background and
clustering seismicity resolved by using stochastic declustering,
2004 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyusyu University,
Fukuoka, Japan, 11 (9-11) October 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). On the aftershock activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the
southeast off the coast of the Kii peninsula, and
constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and space-time
pattern of the aftershocks I (in Japanese), The 159-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo,
Japan, 17 September 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2004). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the
northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki
earthquake of M8.0, International
Conference in Commemoration of 5-th Anniversary of the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake,
Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan, 8-9 September 2004
(Invited lecture).
Zhuang,
J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes
for earthquake occurrences, The 2004 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Fuji
University, Hanamaki City, Japan, 3-6 September 2004.
Tanaka, U. and
Ogata, Y. (2004). Estimation of parameters for the Thomas spatial cluster
model, The 2004 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Fuji University, Hanamaki City, Japan, 3-6 September 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal
stress changes, The 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for
Mathematical Statistics and Probability, and 67th Annual Meeting of the
Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Barcelona, Spain, 25-29 July 2004
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the
northern Japan relating to the 2003 Tokachi
earthquake of M8.0, 2004 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 9-13 May 2004.
Zhuang,
J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Stochastic reconstruction of
clustering features of earthquakes, 2004 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International
Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 10 (9-13) May 2004.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic analyses of
space-time branching processes for earthquakes, International Conference on
Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA), Castellon Spain, 8
(4-8) April 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Statistical models of point processes and prediction and discovery
in seismic activity (in Japanese), Spring Meeting of the Mathematical Society
of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, 30 March 2004 (specially organized lecture).
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Visualizing
goodness-of-fit of point-process models for earthquake clusters, Analysis of
Natural and Social Phenomena: Data Science and System Reduction; an
international workshop of the 21st Century COE Program at Keio University, Pan
Pacific Hotel, Yokohama, Japan, 21 (21-23) March 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Stress changes, seismicity changes and statistical models, Workshop
on Seismic Activity and Probabilities of Major Earthquakes in the Kanto and
Tokai Area, Japan, Wadati Memorial Hall, Institute for Earth Science and
Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan, 9-11 March 2004 (Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in
Japanese), The 156-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 February 2004 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the northern
Japan relating to the 2003 Tokachi earthquake of M8.0
(in Japanese), The 156-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 February 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Space-Time Model of Regional Seismicity for Revealing
Temporal Anomalies, International Symposium, Science of Modeling; The 30th
Anniversary of the Information Criterion(AIC), Pacifico Yokohama, Japan, 15
(14-17) December 2003 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, 2003
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center
West, San Francisco, USA, 10 (8-12) December 2003.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2003). Testing of hypotheses
associated earthquake clustering features by using the stochastic
reconstruction method, 2003 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union
(AGU), Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 10 (8-12) December
2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Quiescence of foreshock/aftershock activity in and off the coast of
Miyagi prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the triggered
stress-changes (in Japanese), 2003 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Kyoto International Conference Hall, Kyoto, Japan, 8 (6-8) October 2003.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and
around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the large interpolate
earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), 2003 Fall Meeting
of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyoto International Conference Hall,
Kyoto, Japan, 8 (6-8) October 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Seismicity-change-analysis by a space-time point-process model (in
Japanese), The 2003 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (71th annual meeting of
the Japan Statistical Society), Meijo University,
Nagoya, Japan, 5 (2-5) September 2003.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of
characteristic associated with earthquake clusters, The 2003 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting
(71th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society), Meijo
University, Nagoya, Japan, 5 (2-5) September 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Quiescence of the 2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off
the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the
triggered stress-changes (in Japanese), The 153-rd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo,
Japan, 18 August 2003.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake
occurrence, Point processes--theory and applications, the Banff International
Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS), Banff,
Canada, 22 (21-26) June 2003 (Invited).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). On seismicity changes in western Japan associated with the two great
interpolate earthquakes in Nankai Trough, 2003 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth
and Planetary Science, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 29 (26-29) May
2003.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Analysis of seismicity changes by a spatiotemporal
point process model, 2003 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 28 (26-29) May 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Seismicity-change-analysis by a space-time point-process model,
Third International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Julriquilla,
Queretaro; Mexico, 5 (4-10) May 2003 (Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan
associated with the two great earthquakes in Nankai Trough, Third International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Julriquilla,
Queretaro; Mexico, 5 (4-10) May 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). A practical space-time model for regional seismicity, Session on
"Scaling, cascades and self-organized criticality in Earthquakes: Damage
mechanics and Predictability, 2003, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly, Nice, France,
10 (6-11) April 2003 (solicited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in western Japan (1995-2001)
detected by a statistical space-time model (in Japanese), The 150-th Meeting of
Coordinating Committee for
Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 17 February 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). A Practical Space-Time Model for Regional Seismicity, 2002 Fall
Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center
West, San Francisco, USA, 8 (6-10) December 2002.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2002).
Statistical confirmation of a relationship between excitation of precursors and
earthquakes, 2002 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone
Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 6 (6–10) December 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Modeling of regional space-time earthquake occurrences (in
Japanese), 2002 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Pacifico
Yokohama, Japan, 13 (11-13) November 2002.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2002). Stochastic
reconstruction of earthquake clusters and its application to foreshock studies,
2002 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Pacifico Yokohama,
Japan, 12 (11-13) November 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrences and Its
residual analysis, Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China, 25-29 September 2002 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Visualization and monitoring of regional seismic
activities by the space-time statistical models (in Japanese), Symposium for
planning of the next research project of the Coordination Committee for
Earthquake Prediction Research in Universities, Earthquake Research Institute,
University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 18 (17-18) September 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Uncertainty of probability forecast of large earthquakes and renewal
processes dependent of their marks (in Japanese), The 2002 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, Meisei University, Tokyo, Japan,
10 (7-10) September 2002.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan H. (2002).
Statistical confirmation of a relationship between excitation of precursors and
earthquakes, The 2002 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Meisei
University, Tokyo, Japan, 10 (7-10) September 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Analysis of seismic activity through point-process modeling, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 13 (10-14) June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a
leader of a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Which models seem most promising?, IMA Workshop: Point
Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics, Institute of
Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis,
Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a leader of a FORUM).
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Demonstrations of space-time seismicity analysis, IMA Workshop:
Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics, Institute
of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis,
Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a leader of a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2002). A possible mechanism for the precursory
relative quiescence of aftershock activity, 2002 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth
and Planetary Science, National Olympics Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan,
31 (27-31) May 2002.
Zhuang,
J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2002). Statistical
confirmation of a relationship between excitation of precursors and
earthquakes, M 2002 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science,
National Olympics Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan, 28 (27-31) May 2002.
Ogata, Y. (2002). Space-time analysis of earthquake catalog, Meeting on
Stochastic Geometry, Spatial Statistics and Statistical Physics, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut
Oberwolfach, Germany, 10-16 February 2002 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Annealing MCMC integration with application to likelihood
computation of Bayesian models, International Symposium on New Trends in
Optimization and Computational Algorithms (NTOC2001), Kyodai Kaikan, Kyoto,
Japan, 9 (9-13) December 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). When and where the aftershock activities were depressed
(in Japanese), 2001 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Kagoshima, Japan, 25 (24-26) October 2001.
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of seismicity, Session on Statistics for Spatial
and Spatial-Temporal Processes, the 53rd Session of the International
Statistical Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 24 (23-29) August 2001
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001).
Modeling of clustered space-time point processes in seismology, Session on
Spatial Statistics at the 2001 Annual Meeting of Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (IMS), Atlanta, Georgia, USA, 8 (5-9) August 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Practical extreme value analyses for seismicity, International
Symposium on Extreme Value Analysis: Theory and Practice, Leuven, Belgium, 6
(5-10) August 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). The 51st Symposium on Science of Form, Institute of
Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 27 (27-28) July 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal seismic
activity and its residual analysis, Japan-U.S. Seminar on Statistical Time
Series Analysis, Shiran-Kaikan, Kyoto, Japan, 21 (18-22) June 2001 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal
seismic activity and its residual analysis, 2001 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth
and Planetary Science, National Olympics Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan, 4
(4-8) June 2001.
Zhuang,
J., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2001). Statistical causal relationship between
earthquake occurrences and the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals,
2001 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, National Olympics
Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan, 6 (4-8) June 2001.
Nishimae, Y., Ogata,
Y., Takayama, H. and Matsuoka H. (2001). Epicenter correction of earthquakes in
Matsushiro Seismic Array System by spline function,
2001 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, National Olympics
Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan, 6 (4-8) June 2001.
Ogata,
Y., Zhuang, J. (2001). Statistical examination of anomalies for the precursor
to earth-quakes, and the multi-element prediction formula: Hazard rate changes
of strong earthquakes (M≧4) around Beijing
area based on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation (1982-1997)
(in Japanese), The 143-rd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 21 May 2001.
Ogata, Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal
seismic activity and its residual analysis, Symposium in honor of David
Vere-Jones, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, 15 April 2001
(Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Stochastic declustering of space-time
earthquake occurrences, Second International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, Victoria University of Wellington; New Zealand, 18-21 April 2001.
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences, Meeting
on Stochastic in the Sciences, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Germany, 11-17 March 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Session on Research Project on 'Prediction of the forth comming Great Earthquake at Nankai Trough' organized by the
Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, and sponsored by the
Science and Tecnological Agency of Japan, Association
for The Development of Earthquake Prediction, Tokyo, Japan, December 2000.
Ogata, Y. and Jones, L M. (2000). Aftershock analysis of the 1992 Landers
earthquake: Significant quiescence, relative to the normal aftershock decay,
before the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake, 2000 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA,
10-14 December 2000.
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Treatment of uncertainties in estimating hazard of a large
earthquake from a small number of data (in Japanese), 2000 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, 20 (20-22) November 2000.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2000). A model based method alternative to declusterig for estimating the background seismisity, 2000 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, 22 (20-22) November 2000.
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Some statistical features of foreshocks, Japan-US Workshop on
Foreshocks and Fracture, Heian Kaikan, Kyoto, Japan, 3-5 October 2000 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2000). Theoretical problems on GIS: Some problems on spatial
statistics (in Japanese), The third Symposium of the Center for Spatial
Information Science, University of Tokyo, Sanjo Kaikan, University of Tokyo,
Japan, 26 September 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Spatially
heterogeneous space-time modeling for seismic activity and space-time residual
analysis for point processes, Research Symposium: Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, Australian National University,
Canberra, Australia, 11 (11-14) September 2000 (Invited lecture).
Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2000). Generalized Pseudo-Likelihood Estimates
for Markov Random Fields on Lattice, Research Symposium: Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, Australian National University,
Canberra, Australia, 11 (11-14) September 2000.
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Space-time point-process model and its residual model (in Japanese),
69th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Hokkaido University,
Sapporo, Japan, 26 (25-28) July 2000.
Ogata, Y. (2000). Evaluation of high dimensional Bayesian models: Two
computational method, Workshop on Information-Based Induction Science, Shuzenji, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, 18 (17-18) July 2000
(Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (1999). Statistical Discrimination of Anomalous Aftershock Sequence
Preceding to Large Earthquakes in the Neighboring Region, 1999 Fall Meeting of
the American Geophysical Union (AGU), San Francisco, USA, 14 (13-17) December
1999.
Ogata, Y. (1993). Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences, 49th session
of the ISI, Firenze, Italy, 30 September (25 August - 2nd September) 1993.
Ogata,
Y. (1986). Likelihood Analysis of Spatial Inhomogeneity for Marked Point
Patterns, 13th International Biometric Conference, University of Washington,
Seattle, USA, 1 August (27 July - 1 August) 1986.
Teaching
and postgraduate supervision
Postgraduate supervision
Repository
for PhD Thesis of Statistical Science of the Graduate University for Advanced
Studies (SOKEN-DAI)
- Fumiyasu
Komaki, PhD, State-Space Modeling of
Time Series Sampled From Continuous Processes with Pulses, the
Graduate University for Advanced Studies (SOKEN-DAI), 1989-1992;
Currently, Professor of the University of Tokyo.
- Zenqi
Guo, PhD, Statistical Analyses of
Aftershocks for the Relations between Their Models in Time, Space, and
Magnitude, SOKEN-DAI, 1994-1997.
- Fuchun
Huang, PhD, Studies in Methods
toward Likelihood Based Inference for Spatial Statistical Models,
SOKEN-DAI, 1995-1998; Currently, Senior Lecturer of Victoria University,
Australia.
- Yoshiyuki
Ninomiya, PhD, Distribution Theory
for the Maximum of Random Fields and Its Applications to Change-Point
Theory, SOKEN-DAI, 1998-2001; Currently, Professor of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics (ISM).
- Takaki
Iwata, Postdoctoral Fellow, 1999, Research Fellow, 2005-2008; Waseda University, Project Assistant Professor,
2008-2011; ISM, Project Associate Professor, 2011-2014; Currently,
Associate Professor of Tokiwa University.
- Saneyuki
Udagawa, Statistical Volcanology, Postdoctoral Fellow, 2001; Currently,
Center for Integrated Disaster Information Research (CIDIR), Project
Assistant Professor of the University of Tokyo.
- Jessie
Wilson, Research Student, 2001-2002.
- Jiancang
Zhuang, PhD, Some Applications of
Point Process in Seismicity Modeling and Prediction, SOKEN-DAI,
2000-2002; Postdoctoral Fellow, 2003; JSPS Research Fellow, 2004-2005;
UCLA, Research Fellow, 2006-2007; Assistant Professor of the ISM,
2007-2011; Currently, Associate Professor of the ISM．
- Masatsugu
Wakaura, PhD, Investigation of the surface air temperature anomaly,
2002-2006; Currently, Director of OYO Corporation and Risk Management
Solutions, Inc. (OYO RMS Corporation).
- Ushio
Tanaka, PhD, Parameter estimation
and model selection for Neyman-Scott point processes, 2003-2006;
Research Fellow, 2007-2009; Currently, Assistant Professor of Osaka
Prefecture University.
- Kazuyoshi
Nanjo, Statistical Seismology, JSPS Research Fellow, 2003-2005;
Seismology, Research Fellow, 2006; Swiss Seismological Service, Research
Fellow, 2006; Project Assistant Professor of Earthquake Research
Institute, the University of Tokyo, 2008; Currently, Associate Professor
of Shizuoka Prefecture University.
- Katsunori
Sugaya, Research Fellow, 2010-2011, Principal Researcher, (Independent
Corporation) Nuclear Safety Infrastructure Organization Kashiwazaki Earthquake Safety Center; Currently, the
Secretariat of the Nuclear Regulation Authority.
- Takao Kumazawa, PhD,
Detecting misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies, SOKEN-DAI,
2007-2012; Currently, Project Assistant Professor of Earthquake Research
Institute, the University of Tokyo.
- Shunichi
Nomura, PhD, Stochastic Models and
Forecast for Recurrent Earthquakes, SOKEN-DAI, 2009-2012; Assistant
Professor of Tokyo Institute of Technology; Currently, Assistant Professor
of the ISM.
External examiner of:
- David
Harte, MSc in Mathematics, Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand
1982
- Yasuaki
Murata, External examiner of D.Sc. in Geophysics, Nagoya University,
Japan, 1992
Lecture courses
- 1978:
Victoria University of Wellington, Akaike information statistics (Honours course)
- 1978:
Victoria University of Wellington, introduction to probability theory (2nd
year)
- 1986 - 1988:
University of the Air, time series analysis (under graduate)
- 1988:
Kobe University, statistical seismology (graduate course)
- 1993:
Kyoto University, statistical seismology (graduate course)
- 1993 -
1995: Keio University, statistical seismology (graduate course)
- 1994:
Tsukuba University, statistical seismology (graduate course)
- 1997:
Nagoya University, statistical seismology
- 1998:
Seoul National University, Korea, Introduction to statistical point
process modelling, etc.
- 1999:
Tokyo Institute of Technology, Introduction to statistical point process
modelling and Bayesian Statistics (graduate and undergraduate cources)
- 2000:
Kyoto University, Statistical modeling of earthquake occurences,
Research Center for Earthquake Prediction, Disaster Prevention Research
Institute
- 2003:
Statistical analysis of series of events, Hamamatsu Medical College,
undergraduate students, September
2, 2003.
- 2008: National Geophysical Research Institute
(Hyderabad, Republic of India), Introduction to Statistical Seismology
(1): Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model for prediction and
diagnosis of seismic activity, August 5, 2008.
- 2008: National Geophysical Research Institute
(Hyderabad, Republic of India), Introduction to Statistical Seismology
(2): Space-time seismicity modeling, August 6, 2008.
- 2008: National Geophysical Research Institute
(Hyderabad, Republic of India), Introduction to Statistical Seismology
(3): Bayesian modeling foｒ nonhomogeneous datasets,
August 8, 2008.
- 2008: National Geophysical Research Institute
(Hyderabad, Republic of India), Introduction to Statistical Seismology
(4): Earthquake catalog and long-range correlation of seismic activity,
August 14, 2008.
- 2008: National Geophysical Research Institute
(Hyderabad, Republic of India), Statistical Seismology Software Tutorials,
August 12-13, 2008.
- 2008: National Geophysical Research Institute
(Hyderabad, Republic of India), Space-time ETAS model and stochastic declustering (Zhuang J and Ogata Y.),
August 13, 2008.
- 2008: SOKEN-DAI Lecture, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and
statistical modeling, Modeling in statistical
seismology, September 4
(4-5), 2008.
- 2010: School of Earth and Space Sciences,
Peking University (China), Modeling of temporal and spatial nonhomogeneity for space-time databases in geophysics,
September, 2010.
- 2010: China Earthquake Network Center (CENC)
(China), Immediate forecasting of aftershock hazard and diagnostic ETAS model
applications for monitoring seismicity anomalies, September, 2010.
- 2010: Institute of Geophysics, China
Earthquake Administration (China), Seismic and geodetic anomalies
preceding the rupture around the focal region: Applications of the ETAS
model, September,
2010.
- 2017:
Tutorial Lecture at Peking University (China) seismic activity analysis
summer course and young scholar geophysics frontier forum, July, 2017.
- 2019: Institute of Theoretical and Application
Geophysics, Peking University (China),
Introduction to Statistical Seismology, October 2019.
- 2019: Institute of Theoretical and Application
Geophysics, Peking University (China),
Toward probability forecasting of large earthquakes, October 2019.
- 2019:
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and
Technology (China), Introduction to Statistical Seismology for Earthquake
Prediction Research, October 2019.
Software
Development
- Ogata, Y.,
Katsura, K., Tanemura, M., Harte, D. and Zhuang,
J. (2021). Hierarchical Space-Time
Point Process Models, Bayesian Seismicity Analysis based on Delaunay
Triangle Nets, Computer
Science Monograph, No.35, The Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.
- Tanaka, U.,
Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2008). Simulation
and estimation of the Neyman-Scott type spatial cluster models, Computer Science
Monograph, No.34, The
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.
- Ogata,
Y. (2006). Fortran programs statistical analysis of seismicity -updated
version (point process data), EPTREN, LINLIN, SIMBVP, LINSIM and PGRAPH in
cluded in Time Series and Control Program
Package, SASeis2006, Computer Science
Monograph, No.33, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Tokyo, Japan.
- Ogata,
Y., Katsura, K. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Fortran programs statistical
analysis of series of events (point process data), EPTREN, LINLIN, SIMBVP,
LINSIM and PGRAPH in cluded in Time Series
and Control Program Package, TIMSAC-84-SASE Version2, Computer
Science Monograph, No.32, The Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.
- Utsu,
T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer program package: Statistical Analysis of
point processes for Seismicity, SASeis, IASPEI
Software Library for personal computers, the International Association
of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior in collaboration with the
American Seismological Society, Vol.6, pp.13-94.
- Akaike,
H., Ozaki, T., Ishiguro, M., Ogata, Y., Kitagawa, G., Tamura, Y., Arahata, E., Katsura, K. and Tamura, R. (1985).
Fortran programs statistical analysis of series of events (point process
data), EPTREN, LINLIN, SIMBVP, LINSIM and PGRAPH in cluded
in Time Series and Control Program Package, TIMSAC-84, Computer Science Monograph, No.
22/23, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.
Hobbies
Listening
to classic musics, Painting, Go game, "Rakugo" performance (classic commic
telling), Swimming.
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Updated on 30 November 2023