Curriculum Vitae
Yosihiko Ogata
Updated
on 1 November 2011
Japanese
Research
interests
- Statistical Analysis
for Point Processes
- Statistical Seismology
- Spatial Statistics,
and
- Bayesian Modelling
and its Applications.
Membership
- International Statistical Institute (elected)
- Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and
Probability
- American Geophysical
- the Statistical Society of
- the Seismological Society of
- the Mathematical Society of
Employment
Current position
Professor, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
(ISM), Tokyo.
Leader, Statistical Seismology Research Group, Prediction and Knowledge
Discovery Research Center, the ISM.
Council Member, the ISM (2004-).
Concurrent Professor, Department of Statistical Science, School of
Multidisciplinary Sciences, the Graduate
University for Advanced Studies (SOKEN-DAI), Japan.
Previous employment
November 1973 - June 1984:
Research Scientist, Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM).
July 1984 - March 1985: Principal Research Scientist of ISM.
April 1985 - June 1994: Associate Professor of ISM.
April 1989 - September 1994: Concurrent Associate Professor, Department of
Statistics, SOKEN-DAI.
July 1994 - present: Professor of ISM.
October 1994 - present: Concurrent Professor, Department of Statistics,
April 1998 - March 2000: Director of the Center for Development of Statistical
Computing, ISM.
June 1999 - March 2004: Member of the Advisory Council for Research and
Management, ISM
April 2000 - March 2002: Director of Department of Statistical Methodology,
ISM.
April 2002 - March 2003: Vice Dean, School of Mathematical and Physical
Sciences, SOKEN-DAI.
April 2002 - March 2004: Council Member, the SOKEN-DAI.
April 2002 - March 2008: Director, Department of Statistical Science, School of
Multidisciplinary Sciences, SOUKEN-DAI.
April 2004 - March 2010: Member of the Education and Research Council,
SOKEN-DAI.
June 2006 - December 2007: Selection Committee member of the President of the
SOKEN-DAI Advanced Studies
April 2008 - March 2010: Dean, School of Multidisciplinary Sciences,
SOUKEN-DAI.
June 2008 - March 2010: Selection Committee member of the President of the
SOKEN-DAI Advanced Studies.
Adjunct appointments
February 1978 -
August 1978:
Visiting Lecturer at
August 1978 -
November 1978:
Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at Statistics
Department, Advanced Institute,
December 1981 -
February 1982:
Research Fellow, Statistics Department, Advanced
Institute,
March 1982 - April
1982:
Research Fellow,
October 1984:
Visiting Fellow at the Geophysical Institute, State
Seismological Bureau,
1986 - 1988:
Concurrent Lecturer, University of the Air,
1986:
Concurrent Research Fellow, Earthquake Research
Institute,
November 1986 -
December 1986:
Visiting Fellow, Seminar fur Statistik, ETH,
December 1986:
Visiting Fellow, Department of Mathematics,
1986:
Concurrent Research Fellow, Geological Survey of
1987:
Concurrent Research Fellow, Earthquake Research
Institute,
May 1987 - June
1987:
Visiting Research Fellow, Division of Mathematics and
Statistics, CSIRO,
March 1988 - May
1988:
Subbatical leave supported by the Ministry of
Education, Science and Culture: University of
1988:
Concurrent Lecturer at Geophysics Department,
October 1988 -
March 1990:
Concurrent Research Fellow of the National Disaster
Prevention Research Center at Tsukuba, Japan, for the Project of the Science
and Technology Agency of Japan entiled Earthquake Fracture and Wave
Propagation in Inhomogeneous Structure of the Earth
1993:
Concurrent Lecturer at Geophysics Department,
1993 - 1995:
Concurrent Lecturer at Department of Science and
Engineering,
December 1993:
Visiting Research Scientist, Division of Image
Analysis the Center for Mathematics and Computer Science (CWI),
January 1994:
Visiting Fellow at Division of Mathematics and
Statistic, CSIRO,
October 1994 --
March 1995:
Concurrent Lecturer, Department of Mathematics,
April 1994 -
August 1994:
Concurrent Lecturer at Department of Science and
Engineering,
July 1996:
Visiting Research Fellow at
November 1998:
Visiting Fellow at Department of Statistic,
April 1999 -
September 1999:
Concurrent Lecturer at Graduate School of Information
Science and Engeneering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan
May 2002 - June
2002:
Very Important Visitor, Institute of Mathematics and
its Applications, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA.
September 2010 -
October 2010:
Visiting Professor, School of Earth and Space
Sciences, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, China.
Education
1964 - 1966:
1967 - 1970:
1971 - 1972:
March 1973:
Master of Science (probability theory, ergodic
theory)Master thesis: Topics on the automorphisms in the probability space,
under the supervision of Professor Gishiro Maruyama
April 1973 -
November 1973:
Tokyo University of Education,
July 1980:
Doctor of Engineering (statistics), Osaka University,
Japan. Doctoral Thesis: Contributions to the statistical analysis of series
of events by the likelihood procedure
Prize
September 2002:
Editorial
positions
1983-95: Associate
Editor,
Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (in Japanese)
1987-95: Associate
Editor,
International Statistical Review, the official journal of the International
Statistical Institute (ISI)
1993-2000:
Associate Editor,
BERNOULLI, the official journal of Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics
and Probability
1994-2011:
Associate Editor,
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
1995-2002:
Associate Editor,
Journal of Statistical Planning & Inference
2000-2001: Editor,
Probability Statistics and Seismology: A Festschrift
for Professor David Vere-Jones
Professional
societies
Domestic
1992:
Member, Organizing committee of US-Japan conference on
Frontiers of Statistical Modeling, University of Kentucky, Knoxville,
USA
1992 - 1993:
Council member, the Statistical Society of Japan
1992 - 93:
Treasurer and secretary of general affairs, the
Statistical Society of Japan
1993:
Member, Organizing committee of international
conference on Bayesian Inference and its Applications,
1994 - 95:
Council member, the Statistical Society of Japan
1996:
Member, External Review Committee for the special
projects in the Reserch Center of Earthquake Prediction and other division of
the National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Science and
Technology Agency
1996 - 2001:
Member, Committee of the Research Project on
'Prediction of the forth comming Great Earthquake at Nankai Trough' organized
by the Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, and sponsored
by the Science and Tecnological Agency of Japan
1997 - 1998:
Member, Adhoc Committee for Earthquake Research (Probabilistic
forecast of aftershocks), Administrative Office for Promotion of Earthquake
Researches, The Prime Minister's Office, Japan
1997 - 2001:
Member, Adhoc Committee for Earthquake Research
(Probabilistic forecast of large events on an active fault), Administrative
Office for Promotion of Earthquake Researches, The Prime Minister's Office,
Japan
1998:
Organizer of the special session at the Annual Meating
of the Statistical Society of Japan on "Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods
and Bayesian statistics
2001 - 2008:
Technical Researcher, the Science and Technology
Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Ministry
of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology, Japan
2001 - 2009:
Special Member, Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Ministry of Land, Infrastracture and Transport, Japan
2009- 2013:
Member, Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Ministry of Land, Infrastracture and Transport, Japan
International
1990 - 1993:
Member, Committee for Statistics in the Physical
Science of Bernoulli Society
1990 - 1993:
Member, Scientific program committee of Bernoulli
Society for the 49th Session of the ISI at
1992:
Member, Organizing Committee of US-Japan Conference on
Frontiers of Statistical Modeling: An
Informational Approach,
1993:
Member, Organizing Committee of International
Conference on Bayesian Inference and its
Applications,
1993:
Organizer of the Invited topic meeting on Statistics
in Earth Sciences for the 49th ISI Session in Firenze, Italy
1993 - 1995:
Member, Publications committee of the ISI
1994 - 1997:
Chairman, Scientific programme comittee of Bernoulli
Society for the 51st Session of the ISI,
1994 - 1997:
Member, Scientific programme coordinating comittee of
the ISI for the 51st Session of the ISI,
1995 - present:
Member, Committee for Statistics in the Physical
Science, Bernoulli Society
1996:
Reviewer of the Belgian National Fund for Scientific
Research
1996 - 1997:
Member of the International Advisory Committee of the
International Conference on Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability(sponsored
by the Indian Statistical Institute and co-sponsored by Bernoulli Society)
1995 - 1997:
Organizer of the conference on Point Processes;
Models and Applications, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
1996 -1997:
Organizer of the session on 'Earthquake Modelling and
Prediction', Conference on Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability,
Indian Statistical Institute,
1997:
Reviewer of Belgian National Fund for Scientific
Research
1997 -1999:
Member, Scientific Programme Committee of Conference
on Statistics in Space, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Athen, Greek
1997 -1999:
Chairman, the Organizing Committee of the 5th International
Symposium of the
1998 -1999:
Member, Scientific Programme Committee of the
international symposium on Probability and Statistics and Their Applications,
June 9-11 1999,
1999 -2001:
Member, Scientific Programme Committee of the
international symposium on Statistics and Applications, June 26-30, 2001,
1999 -2001:
Member, The International Organising Committee, The
Second International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Victoria University of
Wellington, New Zealand, 18-19th April, 2001
2002 -2003:
Session organiser of the Third International Workshop
on Statistical Seismology,
2002 -2004:
Member, Scientific Program Committee of the Bernoulli
Society World Congress and 2004 Meeting of Institute of Mathematical
Statistics,
2004 - :
Member, ISI-Committee for Environmental Statistics
2006 -2007:
Advisory Board of the 5th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology,
2009 -2010:
Program Committee of the AGU Chapman Conference on
Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences,
2010 -2011:
Organizing &
Programming Committee member
of the 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Thera (Santorini),
Greece
Recent conference talks
Ogata, Y. (2011).
Diagnosis of seismic anomalies and stress changes: Case studies from the recent
earthquakes in and around Japan, Workshop on Statistical and Physical Modelling of Earthquake Processes, GNS Science, Avalon,
Lower Hutt, NewZealand, 27 October 2011. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2011). The M9 Tohoku-Oki
earthquake and statistical seismology, Seminar series in honour
of David Vere-Jones, Waikanae,
NewZealand, 26 October 2011. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2011). Aseismic slips assumed for the relative quiescence and
activation and for the transient anomalies of the geodetic time series of
distances between GPS stations (in Japanese), 2011 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center
"GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 13 October 2011. (Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2011). Tohoku earthquake:
foreshocks, aftershocks and triggered activities and quiescence for long-term
seismic activity in and around Japan (in Japanese), 2011 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center
"GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 14 October 2011.
Ogata, Y.* and Katsura, K. (2011). Operational probability foreshock
forecasts up until the M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (in Japanese), 2011 Fall
Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts
Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 14 October 2011.
Kumazawa, T.* and Ogata, Y. (2011). Estimating
misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies, 2011 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center
"GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City, Japan, 13 October 2011.
Nomura, S.* and
Ogata, Y. (2011). Space-time structure of repeating microearthquakes
at Parkfield, 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP",
Shizuoka City, Japan, 13 October 2011.
Matsu'ura, M.*, Noda, A., Terakawa,
T. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Inelastic Deformation of Island-Arc Crust and
Generation of Intraplate Earthquakes: Background
Tectonic Stress Fields, 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka
City, Japan, 13 October 2011.
Terakawa, T.*, Hashimoto, C., Ogata, Y. and Matsu'ura,
M. (2011). Mechanism Driving lnduced Seismic
Sequences After the 2011 0ff the PacifIc Coast of
Tohoku Earthquake, 2011 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Shizuoka Convention & Arts Center "GRANSHIP", Shizuoka City,
Japan, 12 October 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). 東北地方太平洋沖地震と統計地震学, (in
Japanese), The 2011 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Ito Campus of Kyushu
University, Fukuoka City, Japan, 5 September 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). 松本付近の余震について(in Japanese), The 192-nd Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). 東北沖M9地震の余震活動モニタリングについて(in Japanese), The 192-nd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011).
Seismic and geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region: Applications
of the ETAS model, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS) 8th Annual Meeting,
Taipei International Convention Center, Taipei, Taiwan, 10 (8-12) August 2011.
(Invited lecture)
Ogata, Y. (2011). Preshock activity and quiescence for long-term seismic activity in and
around Japan (in
Japanese), The 191-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 13 June 2011.
Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2011). Tohoku earthquake:
aftershock activity and triggered activities in the eastern Honshu area (in
Japanese), The 191-st Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 13 June 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). Operational probability foreshock forecasts up until Tohoku-Oki
earthquake (in
Japanese), The 191-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 13 June 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011).
Anomalous seismic activities before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki Earthquake, 7th
International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7), Nomikos Conference
Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 25 (25-27) May 2011 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2011). Prospective
foreshock forecasting experiment during the last 17 years, 7th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7), Nomikos Conference Center, Thera
(Santorini), Greece, 25-27 May 2011.
Kumazawa, T. and
Ogata, Y. (2011). Smoothing for the nonstationarity with ETAS clustering, 7th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7), Nomikos Conference Center, Thera
(Santorini), Greece, 25-27 May 2011.
Mitsuhiro M., Noda, A., Terakawa T. and Ogata, Y. (2011). Inelastic Deformation of
Island-Arc Crust and Generation of Intraplate Earthquakes: Basic Ideas, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2011, Makuhari Messe International Conference
Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (22-27) May 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2011). 前兆について：前震活動と広域的静穏化(in Japanese), The 190-th Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 26 April 2011.
Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2011). 余震と誘発地震(in Japanese), The 190-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 26 April 2011.
Nanjo, K.Z., Yokoi,
S., Tsuruoka, H., Schorlemmer, D., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ogata, Y., Zhuang,
J. (2011). Recent progress of the CSEP earthquake forecast testing experiment
in Japan: Strategy and preliminary results of testing against the aftershock
sequence of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, Seismological
Society of America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting, Memphis, U.S.A., 14 (13-15) April
2011.
Jordan, T.H., Gerstenberger,
M.C., Hirata, N., Jackson, D.D., Liukis, M., Maechling, P.J., Marzocchi, W.,
Nanjo, K.Z., Ogata, Y., Rhoades, D.A., Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J.D. (2011).
Implications of Recent Events for CSEP Testing of Earthquake Forecasts,
Seismological Society of America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting, Memphis, U.S.A., 15
(13-15) April 2011.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Operational
foreshock forecasting: Fifteen years after, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 15 (13-17)
December 2010.
Sugaya, K., Hiramatsu, Y., Furumoto, M., Katao, H. and Ogata, Y. (2010).
On the c-values of the off-fault aftershocks triggered by the 1995 Kobe
earthquake, Japan, 2010 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A, 15 (13-17) December 2010.
Chu, A., Ogata, Y.
and Katsura, K. (2010). An improved
statistical solution for global seismicity by the HIST-ETAS approach, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 16 (13-17)
December 2010.
Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Seismicity activation before the mega-earthquake
of 26 December 2004 based on Epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical
Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A, 15 (13-17) December 2010.
Nomura, S. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Bayesian forecasting
of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample
size, 2010
Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San
Francisco, U.S.A, 16 (13-17)
December 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Empirical Bayes
estimation of the space-time ETAS model with location-dependent parameters for
forecasting seismic activity in a wide geophysical region, Grant-in-Aid for
Scientific Research (A) International Symposium on Statistical Analysis of
Spatio-Temporal Data, The Conference Hall of The Kamakura Chamber of Commerce
and Industry, Kamakura City, Japan, 5 (4-6) November 2010.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Maximum weighted likelihood estimates for spatiotemporal
point processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) International
Symposium on Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, The Conference Hall
of The Kamakura Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kamakura City, Japan, 4 (4-6)
November 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Evaluating
probability forecasts of earthquakes by the expected relative entropy, ERI
Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan:
Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto
University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 2 (1-2) November
2010.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Evaluating performance of earthquake prediction relative to a
baseline model through gambling scoring, ERI Workshop on "Earthquake
Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward Constructing Base-line Models
of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza,
Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 2 (1-2) November 2010.
Sugaya, K. and Ogata, Y (2010).
The features of seismicity in central Honshu based on the hierarchical space-time ETAS model, ERI Workshop on
"Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward
Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto
University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 1 (1-2) November 2010.
Bansal, A.R. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). Seismicity activation before the mega-earthquake of 26
December 2004 based on Epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ERI
Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan:
Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto
University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 1 (1-2)
November 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Operational
Probability Forecast of Foreshocks (in Japanese), 2010 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima,
Hiroshima City, Japan, 28 October 2010.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2010). A reference framework for evaluating significance of
earthquake predictions, 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 29
October 2010.
Sugaya, K. and Ogata, Y. (2010).
The feature of seismicity based on the hierarchical space-time ETAS model (in
Japanese), 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, International
Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 27 October 2010.
Ogata, Y. and Adelfio, G. (2010).
Hybrid Kernel Estimates of Space-Time Earthquake Occurrence Rates Using the
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence Model, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, 7 September 2010.
Chu, A. and Ogata, Y.
(2010). On the Relationship Between Lower Magnitude Thresholds and Bias in ETAS
Parameter Estimates, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda
University, Tokyo, Japan, 7 September 2010.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010). Model
Selections for detection of seismicity changes and precursory slips, The 2010
Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, 7
September 2010.
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Bayesian forecasting of the BPT model
using uncertain occurrence times, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, 7 September 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Summary of
intensive discussion subject for “Seismic activity”, The 187-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 20 August 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Space-time heterogeneity in aftershock activity, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall,
Chiba City, Japan, 28 (23-28) May 2010.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2010).
Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the
2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010,
Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 28 (23-28) May
2010.
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010). A Bayesian predictor of recurrent
earthquakes based on BPT model with slip data, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting
2010, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26
(23-28) May 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2010). Modeling of temporal and spatial
nonhomogeneity for space - time processes, The Spring Korean Statistical
Society Annual Meeting, Statistics Center (Daejeon), Daejeon, Korea, 21 (20-22)
May 2010, Keynote lecture (IL-SONG lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2010). Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model
for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity, “Earthquake Hazards in Urban Areas” and “Toward Constructing Forecast Systems of Earthquakes” -The 3rd
SCEC-ERI joint workshop-, Earthquake
Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo,
Japan, 16 (16-17) March 2010 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2010). Researches on seismicity by
statistical models -A review-, Seismology for the blue earth and the white
continent -A symposium on solid earth around Antarctic-, National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa City ,
Tokyo , Japan, 9 (8-9) March 2010 (special
Invited lecture).
Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2010). A Bayesian predictor based on prior
distributions of BPT model with slip rates (in Japanese), The 185-th Meeting of
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake
Prediction, Geographical
Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 February 2010.
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Aseismic slip
scenario for transient crustal deformations around the southern fault before
the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland earthquake (in Japanese), The 185-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 February 2010.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Global earthquake catalogs and long-range correlation
of seismic activity, 2009 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A, 16 (14-18)
December 2009 (Invited lecture).
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Ｔoda,
S. (2009). Seismicity changes in Tohoku District before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi
Inland Earthquake, 2009 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical
Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 18 (14-18) December 2009.
Llenos, A.L., McGuire, J.J. and Ogata, Y. (2009). Detecting Seismicity
Rate Transients in the Hokkaido Corner, 2009 Fall Meeting
of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A.,
14 (14-18) December 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Seismicity changes in the central
and western district of Shizuoka Prefecture before the August 2009 Earthquake
of M6.5 at Suruga Bay, 2009 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Yoshida Campus, Kyoto
University, Kyoto, Japan, 21 (21-23)
October 2009.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Ｔoda, S. (2009).
Seismicity changes in Tohoku District before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake,
2009 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 21 (21-23)
October 2009.
Nomura, S., Ogata, Y., Ｔoda,
S. and Komaki, F. (2009). Prior distributions of BPT distribution in renewal
process with slip rates and comparing their prediction accuracy, 2009 Fall
Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto University,
Kyoto, Japan, 23 (21-23) October 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Bayesian spatial models for earthquake catalog, The
2009 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Kyotanabe Campus, Doshisha University ,
Kyotanabe City , Japan, 7 (6-9) September 2009.
Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2009). Analysis of
sesimicity anomalies by a point process model, The 2009 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, Kyotanabe Campus, Doshisha
University , Kyotanabe
City , Japan, 8 (6-9) September 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Earthquake forecast in Japanese Islands based on
location-dependent b-values and space-time ETAS model (in Japanese), The 183-rd
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 21 August 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Seismicity changes in the central
and western district of Shizuoka Prefecture before the August 2009 Earthquake
of M6.5 at Suruga Bay and its aftershock activity (in Japanese), The 183-rd
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute,
Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 21 August 2009.
Ogata,
Y. (2009). Modeling for immediate aftershock probability forecasting, The 1st
Ogata, Y. (2009). Space-time ETAS model for forecasting
seismicity in and around Japan, International Symposium on Toward Constructing Earthquake
Forecast Systems for Japan, Earthquake
Research Institute, University
of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 27 May 2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). Space-time model for wide
regional and global seismicity, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 20 (16-21) May
2009.
Ogata, Y. (2009). A correction
method of routinely determined hypocenter coordinates in far offshore region
(in Japanese), The 182-nd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 15 May
2009.
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2009).
Seismicity changes in northern Tohoku District before the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi
Nairiku Earthquake (in Japanese), The 182-nd Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Ogata, Y. (2009). Location Dependent Space-Time Models for Wide
Regional and Global Seismicity, The 6th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, Granlibakken Conference Center, Lake Tahoe, CA, USA, 15 (12-16)
April 2009 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. and Umino, N. (2009). Correction of routinely determined hypocenter
coordinates in far offshore region, The 6th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology,
Kumazawa, T., Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2009). Seismicity Rate
Changes Prior to the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku Earthquake of M7.2 in the
Neighboring Area, The 6th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
Ogata, Y. (2008). Space-time model for diagnosis of
wide regional and global seismicity, 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y.,
Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K. and
Jackson, D.D. (2008). Simulation studies on the differences between
spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock probabilities,
2008 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 17 (15–19)
December 2008.
Iwata, T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). The method to estimate
a slip distribution of a large earthquake based on the spatial distribution of
its aftershocks and rate- and state friction law:
Further development, 2008 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco,
USA, 16 (15–19) December 2008.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Space-time model for wide regional and global
seismicity, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical
Modeling and Analysis of Space-time
Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan, Naha City, Japan, 27 (27-28) November 2008.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Local
likelihood estimates for point processes with applications in detecting spatial
changes of seismicity in Japan, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan, Naha City, Japan, 28 (27-28)
November 2008.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Identification and estimation of
the generalized Neyman-Scott spatial cluster fields, Grant-in-Aid for
Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan,
Naha City, Japan, 27 (27-28) November 2008.
Noguchi,
S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Global
Earthquake Catalogs and Long-Range Correlation of Seismic Activity (1), 7th General Assembly of Asian
Seismological Commission and 2008 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan, Tsukuba International Congress
Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba City, Japan, 27 (24-27) November 2008.
Ogata, Y. and Noguchi,
S. (2008). Global Earthquake Catalogs and Long-Range Correlation of Seismic
Activity (2), 7th General Assembly
of Asian Seismological Commission and 2008 Fall Meeting of the Seismological
Society of Japan, Tsukuba International
Congress Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba City, Japan, 27 (24-27)
November 2008.
Zhuang,
J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2008).
Model dependent differences between background and triggered earthquakes and
their influences on foreshock probabilities,
7th General Assembly of Asian Seismological Commission and 2008 Fall
Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Tsukuba International Congress Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba
City, Japan, 27 (24-27) November 2008.
Ogata, Y. (2008). Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock
hazard (in
Japanese), ISM Public Lecture, Large Earthquake and
Forecasting,
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Anomalies in seismic activity and transient crustal deformation, ESF-FWF Conference of New Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And
Modelling A Multi-Scale System, Obergurgl University Centre,
Zhuang, J. and Ogata,
Y. (2008). Using weighted likelihood estimates to detect spatial seismicity
changes, ESF-FWF Conference of
New Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A Multi-Scale
System, Obergurgl University Centre,
Iwata,
T., Toda, S., Ogata, Y. (2008). A spatial slip distribution of the 2005
Miyagi-oki earthquake derived from its aftershock activity and the rate- and
state friction law, ESF-FWF
Conference of New
Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A Multi-Scale
System, Obergurgl University Centre,
Ogata, Y. (2008). Precursory anomalies in seismicity (in Japanese), Cooperative Research meeting on Physics for
precursory phenomena, Disaster Prevention Research
Institute, Kyoto University, Uji City, Japan, 15 (15-16) October 2008 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Searching missing parents: A Bayesian inference of the Neyman-Scott type model (in
Japanese), The 2008 Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting,
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2008). On- and off-fault aftershocks of
the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip preceding
the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting earthquake, 2008 Western Pacific
Geophysics Meeting, Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns, Australia,
1 (July 29-August 1) August 2008.
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Seismicity anomaly and geodetic anomaly (in Japanese), Cooperative
Research meeting on Physics of seismicity, statistical modeling and
forecasting, Earthquake Research
Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 17 (17-18) July 2008.
Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008).
On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake
toggled by a slow slip preceding the 2007 great outer-rise normal faulting
earthquake (in Japanese), Cooperative Research meeting on Physics of
seismicity, statistical modeling and forecasting, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 17 (17-18) July 2008.
Iwata, T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). A spatial
slip distribution of a large earthquake derived from a spatial distribution of
its aftershocks (in Japanese), Cooperative Research meeting on Physics
of seismicity, statistical modeling and forecasting, Earthquake Research Institute,
Ogata, Y. (2008). Seismicity
shadows and stress shadows in aftershock activity,
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari Messe, International Conference
Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 (25-30) May 2008.
Iwata, T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2008). A spatial
slip distribution of the 2005 Miyagi-oki earthquake derived from spatial
distribution of the aftershocks, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 30 (25-30) May
2008.
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2008).
On- and Off-fault Aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island Subduction Earthquake
Toggled by a Slow Slip Preceding the 2007 Great Outer-rise Normal Faulting
Earthquake (in Japanese), The 177-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Ogata,
Y. (2008). Space-time ETAS Model,
CSEP Global Collaboration & Testing Meeting, Southern California Earthquake Center,
Los Angeles, USA, 21 April 2008 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2008). Seismicity
anomaly and crustal deformation anomaly, Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and
Earthquake Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington,
Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Christophersen,
A., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson D.D. (UCLA) (2008). Differences
between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes, Evison Symposium on
Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington,
Iwata, T., Toda, S. and Ogata,
Y. (2008). A spatial slip distribution of the 1995
Kobe earthquake derived from its aftershock activity and rate-and-state
friction law, Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting,
Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NewZealand, 19 (18-22) February
2008 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2008). Modeling
of heterogeneous datasets, Workshop on Data-driven and Physically-based Models
for Characterization of Processes in Hydrology, Hydraulics, Oceanography and
Climate Change, Institute for Mathematical Sciences, National University of
Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore, 9 (6-28) January 2008 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2008). Standard point-process models for prediction
and diagnosis of earthquake activity, Workshop on Data-driven and
Physically-based Models for Characterization of Processes in Hydrology,
Hydraulics, Oceanography and Climate Change, Institute for Mathematical
Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Republic of Singapore,
11 (6-28) January 2008 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2007). Aseismic Slips
Preceding Ruptures Assumed for Anomalous Seismicities and Crustal Deformations,
2007 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 12 (10–14)
December 2007.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones,
D. (2007). Stochastic declustering:
visualizing of the family trees in earthquake catalogs with uncertainty, 2007
Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 10 (10-14)
December 2007 (Invited lecture).
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y.
(2007). Modelling of the spatio-temporal distribution of aftershocks based on
rate- and state friction law, 2007 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco,
USA, 10 (10-14) December 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). A Bayesian MCMC inference for the Neyman-Scott
models (in Japanese), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on
Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time
Data,
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). A solution to the filtering problem on
Neyman-Scott point processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okayama International Center, Okayama City,
Japan, 30 (29-December 1) November 2007.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y.
(2007). Parameter
estimation and model selection of clustering spatial models
(in Japanese), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific
Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data,
Ogata,
Y. (2007). Bayesian
modeling for nonhomogeneoous datasets (in Japanese), Cooperative Research meeting on Seismicity Models and Earthquake
Probabilities,
Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K.,
Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D.D. (2007). Difference
between background and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock
probabilities, Cooperative Research
meeting on Seismicity Models and Earthquake Probabilities,
Ogata,
Y. (2007). On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki
earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous seismicity and crustal changes around
the source, and the feature of the aftershock activity (in Japanese), 2007 Fall
Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Ogata, Y. (2007). Precursory
slips assumed for the quiescence and activation and for the anomalous trend of
the geodetic time series of distances between GPS stations (in Japanese), 2007
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Iwata,
T., Toda, S. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Modelling
of spatio-temporal distribution of aftershock rate based on rate- and
state-dependent constitutive friction law (in Japanese), 2007 Fall Meeting of
the Seismological Society of Japan, Sendai
International Center, Sendai City, Japan, 26 (24-26) October 2007.
Zhuang, J., Savage,
M.K., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D.,
Christophersen, A., Jackson, D.D. (2007). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes, 2007
Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Zhuang,
J., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2007). Forecasting performance of the ETAS model in
Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of space-time aftershock point patterns relative to the Poisson
process, The 2007 Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting, Kobe
University, Kobe City,
Japan, 7 (6-9) September 2007.
Zhuang,
J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Likelihood based
detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott processes, The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Parameter estimation and model selection of clustering spatial models,
The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting,
Ogata,
Y. (2007). On the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki
earthquake of M6.8: Preceding anomalous seismicity and crustal changes around
the source, and the normal feature of the aftershock activity (in
Japanese), The 174-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo,
Japan, 20 August 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). Diagnostic
Statistical Analyses to Detect the Seismicity and Geodetic Anomalies Relative to the Normal
Predictions, The 5th International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology, "Ettore Majorana" Foundation and Centre for Scientific
Culture (EMFCSC), Erice, Sicily, Italy, 6 (May 31-June 6) June 2007 (tutorial talk).
Iwata,
T., Imoto, M., Horiuchi, S. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Probabilistic estimation of
earthquake growth to a large one in an earthquake early warning system:
Re-estimation for the Nankai trough region, The 5th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, "Ettore
Majorana" Foundation and Centre for Scientific Culture (EMFCSC),
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity in space
and time measured by the ETAS model and stress changes, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 19 (19-24) May 2007.
Iwata,
T., Imoto, M., Horiuchi, S., and Ogata, Y. (2007). Probabilistic estimation of
earthquake growth to a catastrophic one for an earthquake early warning system:
Re-estimation for the Nankai Trough region, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 21 (19-24) May 2007.
Ogata, Y. (2007). Anomalies of seismicity in space and time
measured by the ETAS model and stress changes (in Japanese), The 171-st Meeting
of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey
Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 19 February 2007.
Ogata,
Y. (2007). Introduction of Short-term prediction experiments, Workshop on
Earthquake Predictability and Time-dependent Forecasting, Swiss Re Centre for
Global Dialogue, Rüschlikon, Switzerland, 29 (28-31) January 2007 (keynote
lecture).
Ogata, Y.
(2006). Detection of precursory slips on a fault by the quiescence and
activation of seismicity relative to the ETAS model and by the anomalous trend
of the geodetic time series of distances between GPS stations around the fault,
2006 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 11 (11–15)
December 2006.
Tanaka,
U. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Parameter estimation and model selection for
Neyman-Scott point processes, International workshop, Space-time statistical
analysis; theory and applications, Sanjo Conference Hall,
Ogata, Y. (2006). Detection of precursory slips on a fault by the
quiescence and activation of seismicity relative to the ETAS model and by the
anomalous trend of the geodetic time series of distances between GPS stations
around the fault (in Japanese), 2006 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Nagoya Congress Center, Nagoya City, Japan, 2 (October 31-November 2)
November 2006.
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Seismicity anomalies
measured by the ETAS model and stress changes, The 2006 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Kawauchi Campus of
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Statistical analysis of clustered point patterns, The 2006 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Kawauchi Campus of
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Anomalies of seismic activities and geodetic trends preceding the
2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of M6.8 and the 2005 Western Fukuoka-Ken-Oki Earthquake
of M7.0 (in Japanese), The 169-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 21 August 2006.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Probability distributions
associated foreshocks implied by clustering models for earthquake occurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting,
Zhuang,
J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2006). Statistical
modelling (tests) of the relationship between precursory phenomena and
earthquake ocurrences, 2006 Western
Pacific Geophysics Meeting,
Ogata, Y. (2006). Seismicity anomaly from the predicted rate by
the ETAS model , Southern California Earthquake Center and Earthquake research
Institute Joint Workshop on Earthquakes in Urban Areas, Embassy Mandalay Beach Resort, Oxnard,
California, USA, 1 (1-3) June 2006 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Anomalies of aftershock activities in space and time measured by the
ETAS model and relations to stress changes, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 14 (14-18) May 2006.
Ogata, Y. (2006). Review of the Akaike Information Criterion in the field of Earth Science: Prediction
of seismic activity and knowledge excavation by use of statistical models
(in Japanese), Symposium for the 75th anniversary of the foundation
of the Statistical Society of Japan, University
of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 7 (6-7) May 2006 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake
of M7.0 at the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, 2006 International
Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, National
Central University, Taiwan, 6 (6-7) March 2006 (Invited lecture).
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Background and clustering
seismicity in the
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Contributions of Professor Tokuji Utsu to statistical seismology and
recent developments, The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus,
Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 10 (9-13) January 2006 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2006). Toward urgent forecasting of aftershock hazard:
Simultaneous estimation of b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter's law of the
magnitude frequency and changing detection rates of aftershocks immediately
after the mainshock, The 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus,
Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 10 (9-13) January 2006.
Ogata,
Y. (2006). Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest
aftershock (M5.8) with likely scenarios of precursory slips considered for the
stress-shadow covering the aftershock area, The 4th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies,
Shonan Village campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 10 (9-13) January 2006.
Invited lectures
19th general assembly of
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vancouver, Canada, August 1987
(Invited speaker).
Point Process
Models for the Ststistical Analysis of the Seismicity and Assesment of the Time
Varying Hazard, 25th general assembly of International Association of
Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior,
Three-Dimensional Spatial
Variation of b-Values of Magnitude Frequency Distribution Beneath the Kanto
District, Japan, Japan-US joint symposium on Fracture, Form and Fractals,
UCLA Lake Arrowhead,
Quantative
modelling of Earthquake probabilities and intensities, Session on forecasting earthquake, International
Association of Focasting,Wellington, New Zealand, August 1992 (Invited
speaker).
Point Process Procedures for
Detecting Anomalous Earthquake Activity, Workshop on Modelling Earthquake Probabilities and
Characteristics Earthquakes, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, August 1992 (Invited lecturer).
Statistocal
features of foreshocks in comparison with other clusters, 27th general assembly
of International Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior,
Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, January 1994 (Invited speaker
for the special symposium on Earthquake Prediction).
3rd Seismology summer school,
Empirical laws of aftershocks and the ETAS model
(in Japanese), ISM Public Lecture, Seismicity
and Statistical Seismology, Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Open Public Symposium on
"Feasibility of Long-Term Forecasting of Large Earthquakes",
organized by the Seismological Society of Japan, March 1997 (selected talk).
Session on
"Models and Methods in Seismic Hazard Assessment", the 23rd General
Assembly of the European Geophysical Society,
International Workshop on
Seismicity Patterns, Their Statistical Significance and Physical Meaning
sponsored by
Workshop organized
by State Seismological Bureau of China on "Statistical Seismology: Methods
and Software",
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Some statistical features
of foreshocks, Japan-US Workshop on Foreshocks and Fracture, Heian Kaikan,
Ogata, Y. (2001). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences,
Second International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Victoria University of
Wellington; New Zealand, 18-21 April 2001.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Analysis of seismic activity through point-process modeling, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a learder
of a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Which models seem most promising?, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial
lecture, and a learder of a FORUM).
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Modelling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrences and Its
residual analysis, Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
Ogata, Y. (2003). A practival space-time model for regional seismicity,
Session on "Scaling, cascades and self-organized criticality in
Earthquakes: Damage mechanics and Predictabulity, 2003, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint
Assembly, Nice, France, 6-11 April 2003 (solicited presentation).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Sesimicity-change-analysis
by a space-time point-process model, Third International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, Julriquilla, Queretaro; Mexico, 4-10 May 2003 (Invited
presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in
Japanese), The 156-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction ,
Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 February 2004 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Stress changes,
seismicity changes and statistical models, Workshop on Seismic Activity and
Probabilities of Major Earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai Area, Japan, Wadati
Memorial Hall, Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba,
Japan, 9-11 March 2004 (Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the
northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, International Conference in Commemoration of
5-th Anniversary of the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan, 8-9
September 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2005). Seismicity anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes
(solicited), The General Assembly 2005 of the European Geosciences Union (EGU),
the Austria Center Vienna (ACV),
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Seismicity changes in western Japan associated with the great earthquakes near
Nankai trough and their contemporary implications, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 22-26 May 2005 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2006). Contributions
of Professor Tokuji Utsu to statistical seismology and recent developments, The
4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University
for Advanced Studies,
Ogata, Y. (2006).
Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0
at the western
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006).
Background and clustering seismicity in the
Ogata, Y. (2006).
Seismicity anomaly from the predicted rate by the ETAS model , Southern
California Earthquake Center and Earthquake research Institute Joint Workshop
on Earthquakes in Urban Areas, Embassy Mandalay Beach Resort,
Ogata, Y. (2007). Introduction
of Short-term prediction experiments, Workshop on Earthquake Predictability and
Time-dependent Forecasting, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue,
Ogata, Y. (2007). Diagnostic Statistical Analyses to Detect the
Seismicity and Geodetic Anomalies
Relative to the Normal Predictions, The 5th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, "Ettore Majorana" Foundation and Centre for Scientific
Culture (EMFCSC),
Fall meeting of the Mathematical
Society of Japan, Tokyo Institute of Technology,
Workshop on Analysis
of Spatial Data, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Sydney, CSIRO,
Australia, February 1982 (Invited speaker).
Open lectures at the 37th
anniversary of the founding of the
Likelihood Analysis
of Spatial Point Patterns, 4th Japan-USSR symposium on Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics,
Public lecture for Yokohama City
Citizens, Yokohama City University, Japan, 1983 (Invited lecturer).
Likelihood Analysis
of Point Processes and its Applications to Seismological Data, 44th session of
the ISI, Madrid, Spain, September 1983 (Invited speaker).
Point Process Model with
Linearly Parameterized Intensity for the Application to Earthquake Data,
Japan-USA Joint seminar on Time Series Analysis,
Likelihood Analysis
of Spatial Point Patterns, 12th International Biometric Conference, Tokyo,
Japan, September 1984 (Invited speaker).
Likelihood Analysis of Spatial
Point Patterns, First national conference on Time Series Analysis, Beijin,
China, November 1984 (Invited speaker).
The Likelihood Analysis
for Spatial Point Patterns, 13th International Biometric Conference,
Fall meeting of the Mathematical
Society of Japan,
Some Statistical
Methods for Modelling of Point Process Data, Conference on Stochastic Methods for
Biological Intelligence,
Statistical Models for
Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis Point Processes.
Statistical
Analysis of Point Process for Earthquake Prediction, Meeting of the Denmark Sciety of
Theoretical Statistics,
Statistical Model for Standard
Seismicity and Detection of Anomalies by Residual Analysis, Conference on Statistics in Space and
Earth Science,
Monte Carlo Method
for the Objective Bayesian Procedure (with Tanemura, M.), International symposium on Analysis of Statistical
Information, Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Likelihood Analysis
of Gibbs Point Processes in One and Two Dimensions (with Tanemura, M.), International symposium on Analysis
of Statistical Information, Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Analysis of Temporal and Spatial
Heterogeneity of Magnitude Frequency Distribution Inferred From Earthquake
Catalogs, Meeting on Stochastic Geometry, Geometric Statistics and
Stereology, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Statistical
Inferences of Point Processes Models Applied to Earthquake Data Sets, US-Japan
conference on Frontiers of Statistical Modeling,
Lecture series for 10th
anniversary of the founding of
Statistical
Modelling of Earthquake Data, European Meeting of Statisticians, University of
Bath, UK, September 1992 (special Invited lecture).
Fall meeting of the Mathematical
Society of Japan, Nagoya University, Japan, October 1992 (Invited discussant
for the special lecture by T. Hayashi).
On the Epidemic
Type Aftershock Sequence model, US-Japan joint meeting on Time Series
Analysis,
Comments on the Invited papers
in the session of "Time Series: Application and Theory, 49th session of the ISI,
Space-time modeling
of earthquake occurrences, International conference on Bayesian Inference and its
Applications, Fuji-Yoshida, Japan,
December 1993 (Invited speaker).
17th Probability Summer School,
(supported by Academy of Finland), Lahti, Finland, May-June1994 (Invited
lecture series).
Meeting on Mathematische
Stochastik, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
50th session of ISI, Beijin,
China, August 1995 (Invited speaker for the meeting on Markov Fields and
Applications).
13th Australian
Statistical Conference (Sydney International Statistical Congress), Sydney,
Australia, July 1996 (Invited speaker for the topic on Spatial Statistics).
Empirical laws of aftershocks and the ETAS model (in Japanese), ISM
Public Lecture, Seismicity and
Statistical Seismology, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, November 6, 1996.
Meeting on Point
processes: models and applications, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut
Oberwolfach,
Meeting on Mathematische
Stochastik, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
51th Session of the
ISI in
International Summer School of
Graduate University for Advanced Studies,
International
Symposium on "Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability",
December 1997, (organized by the Indian Statistical Institute,coorganized by
Bernoulli Society), Invited paper on the topic of "Earthquake Modelling
and Prediction".
The Joint Statistical Meetings,
ASA-ENAR-WNAR-IMS-SSC, the Session on Modeling and Model Selection - Theory and
Applications,
International
Symposium, on Probability and Statistics and Their Applications, Hanoi,
Vietnam, June 9-11, 1999 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Evaluation of high dimensional Bayesian models: Two computational
method, Workshop on Information-Based Induction Science, Shuzenji,
Ogata, Y. (2000). Spatially heterogeneous space-time modeling for seismic activity
and space-time residual analysis for point processes, Research Symposium:
Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data,
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Theoretical
problems on GIS: Some problems on spatial statistics (in Japanese), The third
Symposium of the Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo,
Sanjo Kaikan, University of Tokyo, Japan, September 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences, Meeting
on Stochastic in the Sciences, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modelling of spatio-temporal seismic activity and its residual
analysis, Symposium in honor of David Vere-Jones, Victoria University of
Wellington, New Zealand, April 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal seismic activity and its
residual analysis, Japan-U.S. Seminar on Statistical Time Series Analysis,
Shiran-Kaikan,
Ogata,
Y. (2001). The 51st Symposium on Science of Form,
Ogata, Y. (2001). Practical etreme value analyses for seismicity, International
Symposium on Extrem Value Analysis: Theory and Practice,
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modelig of clustered space-time point ptocesses in seismology,
Session on Spatial Statistics at the 2001 Annual Meeting of Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (IMS),
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of seismicity, Session on
Statistics for Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Processes, the 53rd Session of the
International Statistical Institute,
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Annealing MCMC integration with application to likelihood
computation of Bayesian models, International Symposium on New Trends in
Optimization and Computational Algorithms (NTOC2001), Kyodai Kaikan,
Ogata, Y. (2002). Space-time analysis of earthquake catalog, Meeting on
Stochastic Geometry, Spatial Statistics and Statistical Physics, Mathematisches
Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Analysis of seismic activity through point-process modeling, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a learder
of a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. (2002). Which models seem most promising?, IMA
Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological Applications of Statistics,
Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and a learder
of a FORUM).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrence, Point
processes--theory and applications, the Banff International Research Station
for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS),
Ogata, Y. (2003). Space-Time Model of Regional Seismicity for Revealing
Temporal Anomalies, International Symposium, Science of Modeling; The 30th
Anniversary of the Information Criterion(AIC), Pacifico Yokohama, 14-17
December 2003 (Invited lecture).
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Visualizing goodness-of-fit of point-process models for
earthquake clusters, Analysis of Natural and Social Phenomena: Data Science and
System Reduction; an international workshop of the 21st Century COE Program at
Keio University, Pan Pacific Hotel, Yokohama, Japan, 21-23 March 2004 (Invited
lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Statistical models of point processes and prediction
and discovery in seismic activity (in Japanese), Spring Meeting of the
Mathematical Society of Japan,
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic analyses of space-time branching processes
for earthquakes, International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling
and its Applications (SPPA), Castellon
Ogata, Y. (2004). Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection
of crustal stress changes, The 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for
Mathematical Statistics and Probability, and 67th Annual Meeting of the
Ogata, Y. (2006). Review of the Akaike Information Criterion in the field
of Earth Science: Prediction of seismic activity and knowledge excavation by
use of statistical models (in Japanese), Symposium for the 75th
anniversary of the foundation of the Statistical Society of Japan,
Conference talks (-2005)
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2005). The largest event in earthquake clusters and relationship to
foreshocks, 2005 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West,
Ogata, Y. (2005). Anomalies in
the aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the
2004 Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern
Hokkaido inland (in Japanese), 2005 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society
of Japan, Hokkaido University, Sapporo City, Japan, 20 (19-21) October 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock
(M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western
Fukuoka, Kyusyu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the
stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), 2005 Fall Meeting of
the Seismological Society of Japan, Hokkaido University, Sapporo City, Japan,
19 (19-21) October 2005.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
A study on the discrimination of foreshocks and other types of earthquakes by
using stochastic reconstruction (in Japanese), 2005 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan,
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Toward urgent forecasting of aftershock hazard – Simultaneous estimation of
b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter’s law of the magnitude frequency and changing
detection rates of aftershocks immediately after the mainshock, The 2005 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Hiroshima Prince Hotel, Hiroshima City, Japan, 13 (12-15) September 2005.
Tanaka, U. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
Estimation of parameters for the Neyman-Scott spatial cluster model, The 2005 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Hiroshima Prince Hotel,
Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismic
activities in and around Tohoku District, northern Japan, prior to the 16th
August 2005 interplate earthquake of M7.2 off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture,
and the aftershock activity of the M7.2 earthquake (in Japanese), The 165-th
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 22 August 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Aftershock
activities of recent conspicuous earthquakes in and near
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Prediction and discovery of seismic activity, Meeting of Faculty of Environmental Science and Technology, Okayama
University, Okayama, Japan, 27 July
2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity
changes in western Japan associated with the great earthquakes near Nankai
trough and their contemporary implications, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 22 (22-26) May 2005
(Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2005). Simultaneous estimation of b-values and detection rates of
earthquakes for the application to aftershock probability forecasting, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International
Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 23 (22-26) May 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005). Seismicity
anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International
Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (22-26) May 2005.
Murata, Y. and
Ogata, Y. (2005). Surficial density estimation from gravity data using Delaunay
triangular network”, 2005 Joint Meeting
for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 (22-26) May 2005.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005).
Analyzing foreshock features by using stochastic reconstruction, 2005 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International
Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 (22-26) May 2005.
Ogata, Y. (2005).
Relative quiescence reported before the occurrence of the largest aftershock
(M5.8) in the aftershocks of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 at the western
Fukuoka, Kyushu, and possible scenarios of precursory slips considered for the
stress-shadow covering the aftershock area (in Japanese), The 164-th Meeting of
Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 16 May 2005.
Ogata,
Y. (2005). Seismicity
anomalies measured by the ETAS model and stress changes (solicited), The
General Assembly 2005 of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), the Austria
Center Vienna (ACV),
Ogata, Y.
(2005). Seismicity changes in and around Kyushu District before the 2005
earthquake of M7.0 in the western offshore of Fukuoka Prefecture (in Japanese),
The 163-rd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 7 April 2005.
Ogata,
Y. (2005). Anomalies in the
aftershock sequences of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake of M8.0 and the 2004
Kushiro-Oki earthquake of M7.1 and seismicity changes in the eastern Hokkaido
inland (in Japanese), The 162-nd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
21, February 2005.
Ogata, Y.
(2004). Synchronous seismicity-rate-changes from the predicted
rates by the ETAS model in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003
Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, 2004 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 14 (13–17) December 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Simultaneous
estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application
to aftershock probability forecasting, 2004 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West,
San Francisco, USA, 14 (13–17) December 2004.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by
stochastic reconstruction -- foreshocks, 2004 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 14 (13–17) December
2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004
Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-term seismicity
anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region (in Japanese),
The 161-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
15 November 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2004). On the aftershock activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the
southeast off the coast of the Kii peninsula, and constraints on the
fault-rupture models by the mechanisms and space-time pattern of the
aftershocks II (in Japanese), The 161-st
Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 15 November 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Simultaneous
estimation of b-values and detection rates of earthquakes for the application
to aftershock probability forecasting (in Japanese), The 161-st Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
15 November 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2004). On an anomalous aftershock activity of the 2004
niigata-ken-Chuetsu earthquake of M6.8, and intermediate-tern seismicity
anomalies preceding the rupyure around the focal region (in Japanese), The 160-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 4 November 2004.
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004).
Residual analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquake occurrences,
International workshop, Space-time statistical analysis; theory and
applications, Kagoshima, Japan, 3-6 November
2004.
Tanaka, U. and
Ogata, Y. (2004). Estimation of parameters for the Neyman-Scott's spatial
cluster model, International workshop, Space-time statistical analysis; theory
and applications, Kagoshima, Japan, 3-6 November
2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). On changes of
statistical distribution of focal mechanisms of events prior to the main
ruptures (in Japanese), 2004 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of
Japan,
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2004). Some features of background and clustering seismicity
resolved by using stochastic declustering, 2004 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Kyusyu University, Fukuoka, Japan, 11 (9-11)
October 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). On the aftershock
activity of the 2004 earthquake of M7.4 at the southeast off the coast of the
Kii peninsula, and constraints on the fault-rupture models by the mechanisms
and space-time pattern of the aftershocks I (in Japanese), The 159-th Meeting
of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
17 September 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2004). Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan
preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, International Conference in Commemoration of
5-th Anniversary of the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, Taiwan, Taipei, Taiwan, 8-9
September 2004 (Invited lecture).
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004).
Residual analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquake occurrences,
The 2004 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Fuji University, Hanamaki City, Japan, 3-6 September 2004.
Tanaka, U. and
Ogata, Y. (2004). Estimation of parameters for the Thomas spatial cluster
model, The 2004 Japanese Joint
Statistical Meeting, Fuji University, Hanamaki City, Japan, 3-6 September 2004.
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Space-time model
for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, The 6th World
Congress of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability,
and 67th Annual Meeting of the
Ogata, Y. (2004). Seismicity changes and stress changes in and around the northern
Japan relating to the 2003 Tokachi earthquake of M8.0, 2004 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari
Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan, 9-13 May 2004.
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Stochastic reconstruction of clustering features of
earthquakes, 2004 Joint Meeting for
Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 10 (9-13) May 2004.
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic analyses of space-time branching
processes for earthquakes, International Conference on Spatial Point Process
Modelling and its Applications (SPPA), Castellon Spain, 8 (4-8) April 2004
(Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Statistical models
of point processes and prediction and discovery in seismic activity (in
Japanese), Spring Meeting of the Mathematical Society of Japan,
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Visualizing goodness-of-fit of point-process
models for earthquake clusters, Analysis of Natural and Social Phenomena: Data
Science and System Reduction; an international workshop of the 21st Century COE
Program at
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Stress changes,
seismicity changes and statistical models, Workshop on Seismic Activity and
Probabilities of Major Earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai Area, Japan, Wadati
Memorial Hall, Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba,
Japan, 9-11 March 2004 (Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2004). Static triggering and statistical modeling (in Japanese), The
156-th Meeting of Coordinating Committee
for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan, 16 February 2004 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2004). Seismicity changes
and stress changes in and around the northern Japan relating to the 2003
Tokachi earthquake of M8.0 (in Japanese), The 156-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
16 February 2004.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Space-Time Model of Regional Seismicity for Revealing Temporal
Anomalies, International Symposium, Science of Modeling; The 30th Anniversary
of the Information Criterion(AIC), Pacifico Yokohama, Japan, 15 (14-17)
December 2003 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Detection of
anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, 2003 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 10 (8–12) December 2003.
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. and Vere-Jones D. (2003). Testing
of hypotheses associated earthquake clustering features by using the stochastic
reconstruction method, 2003 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West,
San Francisco, USA, 10 (8–12) December 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Quiescence of
foreshock/aftershock activity in and off the coast of Miyagi prefecture,
northern
Ogata, Y. (2003). Statistical analysis of seismic activities in and around Tohoku
District, northern Japan, prior to the large interpolate earthquakes off the
coast of Miyagi Prefecture (in Japanese), 2003 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Kyoto International Conference Hall, Kyoto,
Japan, 8 (6-8) October 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Seismicity-change-analysis
by a space-time point-process model (in Japanese), The
2003 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (71th annual meeting of the Japan
Statistical Society),
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2003). Stochastic
reconstruction of characteristic associated with earthquake clusters, The
2003 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (71th annual meeting of the Japan
Statistical Society),
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Quiescence of the 2003 foreshock/aftershock activities in and off
the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, and their correlation to the
triggered stress-changes (in
Japanese), The 153-rd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan, Tokyo, Japan,
18 August 2003.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Modeling of heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrence, Point
processes--theory and applications, the Banff International Research Station
for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS), Banff, Canada, 22 (21-26)
June 2003 (Invited).
Ogata,
Y. (2003). On seismicity
changes in western Japan associated with the two great interpolate earthquakes
in Nankai Trough, 2003 Joint Meeting
for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 29 (26-29) May 2003.
Ogata, Y. (2003). Analysis of sesimicity changes by a spatiotemporal point process
model, 2003 Joint Meeting for Japan
Earth and Planetary Science, Makuhari Messe, International
Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 28 (26-29) May 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). Sesimicity-change-analysis
by a space-time point-process model, Third International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, Julriquilla, Queretaro; Mexico, 5 (4-10) May 2003
(Invited presentation).
Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated
with the two great earthquakes in Nankai Trough, Third International Workshop
on Statistical Seismology, Julriquilla, Queretaro; Mexico, 5 (4-10) May 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2003). A practival
space-time model for regional seismicity, Session on "Scaling, cascades
and self-organized criticality in Earthquakes: Damage mechanics and
Predictabulity, 2003, EGS-AGU-EUG Joint Assembly,
Ogata, Y. (2003). Seismicity changes in western Japan (1995-2001)
detected by a statistical space-time model (in Japanese), The 150-th Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 17 February 2003.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). A Practical
Space-Time Model for Regional Seismicity, 2002 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU),
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H.
(2002). Statistical confirmtion of a relationship between excitation of
precursors and earthquakes, 2002 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West,
San Francisco, USA, 6 (6–10) December 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Modelling of
regional space-time earthquake occurrences (in Japanese), 2002 Fall Meeting of
the Seismological Society of Japan, Pacifico Yokohama, Japan, 13 (11-13)
Nobember 2002.
Zhuang, J. and
Ogata, Y. (2002). Stochastic
reconstruction of earthquake clusters and its application to foreshock studies,
2002 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Pacifico Yokohama,
Japan, 12 (11-13) Nobember 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Modelling of
heterogeneous space-time earthquake occurrences and Its residual analysis,
Workshop on Statistical Seismology,
Ogata, Y. (2002). Visualization and monitoring of regional seismic activities by
the space-time statistical models (in Japanese), Symposium for planning of the
next research project of the Coordination Committee for Earthquake Prediction
Research in Universities, Earthquake
Research Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 18 (17-18)
September 2002.
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Uncertainty of
probability forecast of large earthquakes and renewal processes dependent of
their marks (in Japanese), The 2002
Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Meisei University, Tokyo, Japan, 10
(7-10) September 2002.
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan H. (2002). Statistical confirmtion of a
relationship between excitation of precursors and earthquakes, The 2002 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting,
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Analysis of seismic
activity through point-process modeling, IMA Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological
Applications of Statistics,
Ogata, Y. (2002). Which models seem most promising?, IMA Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological
Applications of Statistics, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial
lecture, and a learder of a FORUM).
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Demonstrations of
space-time seismicity analysis,
IMA Workshop: Point Process Modeling and Seismological
Applications of Statistics, Institute of Mathematics and its Applications, University of
Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, 10-14 June 2002 (tutorial lecture, and
a learder of a FORUM).
Ogata, Y. and Toda, S. (2002). A possible mechanism for the
precursory relative quiescence of aftershock activity, 2002 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, National
Olympics Memorial Youth Center,
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H.
(2002). Statistical confirmtion of a relationship between excitation of
precursors and earthquakes, M 2002
Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, National
Olympics Memorial Youth Center,
Ogata,
Y. (2002). Space-time analysis
of earthquake catalog, Meeting on Stochastic Geometry, Spatial Statistics and
Statistical Physics, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Ogata, Y. (2001). Annealing MCMC integration with application to likelihood
computation of Bayesian models, International Symposium on New Trends in
Optimization and Computational Algorithms (NTOC2001), Kyodai Kaikan, Kyoto,
Japan, 9 (9-13) December 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). When and where the
aftershock activities were depressed (in Japanese), 2001 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Kagoshima, Japan, 25 (24-26) October 2001.
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of seismicity, Session on Statistics for
Spatial and Spatial-Temporal Processes, the 53rd Session of the International
Statistical Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 24 (23-29) August 2001
(Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modelig of
clustered space-time point ptocesses in seismology, Session on Spatial
Statistics at the 2001 Annual Meeting of Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(IMS), Atlanta, Georgia, USA, 8 (5-9) August 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Practical etreme value analyses for seismicity, International
Symposium on Extrem Value Analysis: Theory and Practice,
Ogata,
Y. (2001). The 51st Symposium
on Science of Form, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 27 (27-28)
July 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata, Y. (2001). Modeling of spatio-temporal seismic activity and its residual
analysis, Japan-U.S. Seminar on Statistical Time Series Analysis,
Shiran-Kaikan,
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Modeling of
spatio-temporal seismic activity and its residual analysis, 2001 Joint Meeting for Japan Earth and
Planetary Science, National Olympics Memorial Youth Center,
Zhuang, J., Ogata,
Y. and Ma, L. (2001). Statistical
causal relationship between earthquake occurrences and the ultra-low frequency
ground electric signals, 2001 Joint
Meeting for Japan Earth and Planetary Science, National Olympics
Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan, 6 (4-8) June 2001.
Nishimae, Y., Ogata, Y.,
Takayama, H. and Matsuoka H. (2001). Epicenter
correction of earthquakes in Matsushiro Seismic Array System by spline
function, 2001 Joint Meeting for Japan
Earth and Planetary Science, National Olympics Memorial Youth Center, Tokyo, Japan, 6 (4-8) June 2001
Ogata, Y., Zhuang,
J. (2001). Statistical examination of
anomalies for the precursor to earth-quakes, and the multi-element prediction
formula: Hazard rate changes of strong earthquakes (M≧4) around
Beijing area based on the ultra-low frequency ground electric observation
(1982-1997) (in
Japanese), The 143-rd Meeting of Coordinating
Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Kudan,
Tokyo, Japan, 21 May 2001.
Ogata, Y. (2001). Modelling of spatio-temporal seismic activity and its residual
analysis, Symposium in honor of David Vere-Jones, Victoria University of
Wellington, New Zealand, 15 April 2001 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2001). Stochastic
declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, Second International
Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Victoria University of Wellington; New
Zealand, 18-21 April 2001.
Ogata, Y. (2001). Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences, Meeting on
Stochastic in the Sciences, Mathematisches Forschungsinstitut Oberwolfach,
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Session on Research Project on 'Prediction of the forth comming Great Earthquake at
Nankai Trough' organized by the Association for the Development of Earthquake
Prediction, and sponsored by the Science and Tecnological Agency of Japan,
Association for The Development of Earthquake Prediction, Tokyo, Japan,
December 2000.
Ogata, Y. and
Jones, L M. (2000). Aftershock
analysis of the 1992 Landers earthquake: Significant quiescence, relative to
the normal aftershock decay, before the 1999 Hector Mine Earthquake, 2000 Fall
Meeting of the American Geophysical
Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center West,
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Treatment of
uncertainties in estimating hazard of a large earthquake from a small number of
data (in Japanese), 2000 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2000). A model based method alternative to
declusterig for estimating the background seismisity, 2000 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Tsukuba, Japan, 22 (20-22) November 2000.
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Some statistical
features of foreshocks, Japan-US Workshop on Foreshocks and Fracture, Heian
Kaikan,
Ogata, Y. (2000). Theoretical problems on GIS: Some problems on spatial statistics
(in Japanese), The third Symposium of the Center for Spatial Information
Science, University of Tokyo, Sanjo Kaikan, University of Tokyo, Japan, 26
September 2000 (Invited lecture).
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Spatially
heterogeneous space-time modeling for seismic activity and space-time residual
analysis for point processes, Research Symposium: Analysis of Spatio-Temporal
Data,
Huang, F. and Ogata, Y. (2000). Generalized Pseudo-Likelihood Estimates
for Markov Random Fields on Lattice, Research Symposium: Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data,
Ogata,
Y. (2000). Space-time
point-process model and its residual model (in Japanese), 69th annual meeting
of the Japan Statistical Society, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, 26
(25-28) July 2000.
Ogata, Y. (2000). Evaluation of high dimensional Bayesian models: Two computational
method, Workshop on Information-Based Induction Science, Shuzenji,
Ogata,
Y. (1999). Statistical
Discrimination of Anomalous Aftershock Sequence Preceding to Large Earthquakes
in the Neighboring Region,
1999 Fall Meeting of the American
Geophysical Union (AGU), San Francisco, USA, 14 (13-17) December 1999.
Ogata, Y. (1993). Space-time modeling of earthquake occurrences, 49th session of the ISI,
Firenze, Italy, 30 September (25 August – 2nd Srptember) 1993.
Ogata,
Y. (1986). Likelihood Analysis
of Spatial Inhomogeneity for Marked Point Patterns, 13th International Biometric Conference,
Teaching
and postgraduate supervision
Postgraduate supervision
- (joint) F. Komaki, PhD, State-Space Modeling of Time
Series Sampled From Continuous Processes with Pulses, the
- Zenqi Guo, PhD, Statistical Analyses of
Aftershocks for the Relations Between Their Models in Time, Space, and
Magnitude, SOKEN-DAI, 1994 – 1997.
- Fuchun Huang, PhD, Studies in Methods Toward
Likelihood Based Inference for Spatial Statistical Models, SOKEN-DAI, 1995
– 1998.
- Yoshiyuki Ninomiya, PhD, Distribution Theory for
the Maximum of Random Fields and Its Applications to Change-Point Theory
(in Japanese), SOKEN-DAI, 1998 – 2001.
- Takaki Iwata, Seismology, Postdoctral Fellow,
1999.
- Saneyuki Udagawa, Statistical Volocanology,
Postdoctral Fellow, 2001.
- Jessie Wilson, Research Student, 2001 – 2002.
- Jiancang Zhuang, Statistical Seismology, Some
Applications of Point Process in Seismicity Modeling and Prediction,
SOKEN-DAI, 2000 - 2002, Postdoctral Fellow, 2003.
- Masatsugu Wakaura, PhD, Investigation of the
surface air temperature anomaly, 2002 – 2006.
- Ushio Tanaka, PhD, Parameter estimation
and model selection for Neyman-Scott point processes, 2003 – 2006.
- Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Statistical Seismology, JSPS
Research Fellow, 2003 – 2005.
- Jiancang Zhuang, Statistical Seismology, JSPS
Research Fellow, 2004 – 2005.
- Takaki Iwata, Seismology, Research Fellow, 2005 –
2008.
- Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Seismology, Research Fellow,
2006.
- Jiancang Zhuang, Statistical Seismology, UCLA,
Research Fellow, 2006 – 2007.
- Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Seismology, Swiss Seismological Service,
Research Fellow, 2006 –
- Ushio Tanaka, Spatial Statistics, Research
Fellow, 2007 – 2009.
- Takao Kumazawa, SOKEN-DAI, 2007 –
- Jiancang Zhuang, Statistical Seismology, ISM, Assistant Professor, 2007 –
- Takaki Iwata, Seismology,
- Shunichi Nomura, SOKEN-DAI, 2009 –
- Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Seismology,
Earthquake Research
Institute, The
External examiner of:
- David Harte, MSc in Mathematics,
- Yasuaki Murata, External examiner of D.Sc. in
Geophysics,
Lecture courses
- 1978:
- 1978:
- 1986 - 1988: University of the Air, time series
analysis (under graduate)
- 1988:
- 1993:
- 1993 - 1995:
- 1994:
- 1997:
- 1998:
- 1999: Tokyo Institute of Technology, Introduction
to statistical point process modelling and Bayesian Statistics (graduate
and undergraduate cources)
- 2000:
- 2003: Statistical analysis of series of events,
- 2008: National
Geophysical Research Institute (
- 2008: National
Geophysical Research Institute (
- 2008: National
Geophysical Research Institute (Hyderabad, Republic of India),
Introduction to Statistical Seismology (3): Bayesian modeling foｒ nonhomogeneous
datasets, August 8, 2008.
- 2008: National
Geophysical Research Institute (
- 2008: National
Geophysical Research Institute (
- 2008: National
Geophysical Research Institute (
- 2008: SOKEN-DAI Lecture, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and
statistical modeling, Modeling
in statistical seismology, September
4 (4-5), 2008.
- 2010: School
of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University (China), Modeling of
temporal and spatial nonhomogeneity for space-time databases in geophysics,
September, 2010.
- 2010: China
Earthquake Network Center (CENC) (China), Immediate forecasting of
aftershock hazard and diagnostic ETAS model applications for monitoring
seismicity anomalies, September,
2010.
- 2010: Institute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (China), Seismic and
geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region:
Applications of the ETAS model, September, 2010.
Software
Development
- Ogata, Y. (2006). Fortran programs statistical
analysis of seismicity -updated version (point process data), EPTREN, LINLIN,
SIMBVP, LINSIM and PGRAPH in cluded in Time Series and Control Program
Package, SASeis2006, Computer Science
Monograph, No. 33, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
Tokyo, Japan.
- Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Zhuang, J. (2006).
Fortran programs statistical analysis of series of events (point process
data), EPTREN, LINLIN, SIMBVP, LINSIM and PGRAPH in cluded in Time
Series and Control Program Package, TIMSAC-84-SASE Version2, Computer
Science Monograph,
No. 32, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics,
- Utsu, T. and Ogata, Y. (1997). Computer program
package: Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity, SASeis,
IASPEI Software Library for personal computers, the International
Association of Seismology and Physics of Earth's Interior in collaboration
with the American Seismological Society, Vol. 6, pp. 13-94.
- Akaike, H., Ozaki, T., Ishiguro, M., Ogata, Y.,
Kitagawa, G., Tamura, Y., Arahata, E., Katsura, K. and Tamura, R. (1985).
Fortran programs statistical analysis of series of events (point process
data), EPTREN, LINLIN, SIMBVP, LINSIM and PGRAPH in cluded in Time
Series and Control Program Package, TIMSAC-84, Computer
Science Monograph,
No. 22/23, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan.
Hobbies
Listening
to classic musics, Painting, Go game, "Rakugo" performance (classic
commic telling), Swimming.
Updated on 1 November 2011