Updated on 12 December 2024

Home Page of Yosi Ogata

Welcome to my home page. I am an Emeritus Professor of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, and have been doing a number of various jobs for statistical and seismological communities.

Research interests:
Statistical seismology, Statistical analysis for point processes,
Spatial statistics, and Bayesian modelling and its applications.

NEW! An invited lecture: (Title: Development of ETAS models: before its birth to today) at the "Scientific Seminars by renowned international experts – INGV 25th Anniversary" organised by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV).　→see YouTube Video (for Lecture and questions)　 (25 November 2024)

Professor David Vere-Jones passed away on 31 October 2024. He was a pioneer in the theory and application of statistical seismology, especially in the integration of stochastic point processes with traditional descriptive statistical seismology and made a significant contribution to the formation of our research group, having been always encouragement to our research. He also wrote a groundbreaking book on point processes and played an important role in the global community of statistical seismology. We express our deepest condolences here. (November 2024)

The ETAS model has been registered as a ‘Value-creating Supreme Treasure’ of the Transdisciplinary Federation of Science and Technology. (October 19, 2023) (24/12/11)

An invited lecture, “How to obtain probabilities and scenarios of a large earthquake chain”, presented at SSJ’s online special symposium, 23 July 2022. (July 2022)

Long-term forecast map of major inland earthquakes was introduced in the Nihon Keizai Newspaper (Nikkei e-edition). The full text is available only to subscribers, so please refer to the Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (9 March 2022)

An invited lecture: "Prediction and validation of short- medium-, and long-term earthquake probabilities using a hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) models, etc. " (PDF1) was presented in the key session series of "Trial Prediction Experiment (08) - Transition from trial to implementation" at the 233rd Conference of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (26 November 2021)

A tutorial lecture, "ETAS Model - Visualization of Earthquake Activity and Earthquake Prediction" at the press briefing of 49th Seismological Society of Japan on 3 June 2021. (July 2021)

Commemorative lecture : "The Evolution of ETAS Models and Modeling of Causal Inference" for the Seismological Society of Japan Award at the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting on 29 October, 2020. (November 2020)

Received the 2019 Seismological Society of Japan Award. (May 2020) (June 2020)

Organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (November 2019)

[EurekAlert! news release]
Analyzing seismic patterns to forecast the magnitude of the largest earthquake aftershocks (1 December 2019)

      Lecture at Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology. (16-17 October 2019)
    “High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models” (Invited talk) and the following a tutorial lecture:
    “Introduction to Statistical Seismology for Earthquake Prediction Research”

      Lecture at Institute of Theoretical and Application Geophysics, Peking University. (11-14 October 2019)
    “High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models” (Invited talk), and the following two tutorial lectures:
    “Introduction to Statistical Seismology”, “Toward probability forecasting of large earthquakes”

       [Publication in Nature Communications]
    Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zöller, G. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake,
    on Nature communications. (6 September 2019)

Organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (August 2019)

Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 27 August 2019). (6 August 2019)

11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11) (The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Motohakone, Kanagawa, Japan, 18-21 August 2019).

[JPE Most viewed articles; Aug. 2018] The papers by Utsu et al. (1995) and Ogata (1983), published in Journal of Physics of the Earth, has been top 1st and 3rd most viewed articles in the release through J-stage since Apr. 30, 2009. (Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu’ura, R.S., 1995, Vol.43, Issue1, pp.1-33.) (Ogata, Y., 1983, Vol.31, Issue2, pp.115-124.) (19 September 2018)

Tutorial lecture at the Peking University seismic activity analysis summer course. (6 July 2017)

Awarded for the most loyal StatSei meetings attendee. (February 2017)

Work on earthquake forecasting was televised in NHK Special on Sunday night (Sept. 11, 21:00 - )(TV Japan) (September 2016)

Special Issue on “Earthquake prediction and the statistical model” has been published in Proceedings of the Institute of the Statistical Mathematics, edited and written by our research group. (October 2015)

Number of citing papers of the ETAS point process model for seismic activity (Ogata, 1988, JASA) has exceeded 1,000. (September 2015)
→Search “Ogata. Y.” in Google Scholar

Number of citing papers of the space-time ETAS point process model (Ogata, 1998, AISM) has exceeded 500. (September 2015)
→Search “Ogata. Y.” in Google Scholar

ETAS model has been applied to global seismicity (Nature Geoscience). (August 2013)

The Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP), Japan, show policy to go with the the probability forecast. (August 2013)

We have proposed the method of real-time probability forecasting of aftershocks immediately after the main shock (joint with Aihara FIRST project at Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo). (July 2013)

The table providing the completeness magnitude in Japan (JMA catalogue) has been opened. “ Softwares and Database” Page (24 July 2013)

A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research (November 2012)

Nikkei Newspaper. (23 April 2012) (Japanese)

Sankei Newspaper. (11 March 2012) (Japanese)

International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes on the occasion of celebrating
Prof. Yosi Ogata's 40-year research career in statistical seismology (11-14 March 2012)

[Top50 citation of Tectonophysics 2005-2010 ] The paper by Prof. Ogata and Dr. Zhuang (Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, Issue 1-2, Pages 13-23.) has been one of the “Top-50 most cited articles” published in Tectonophysics 2005-2010. (29 November 2010)