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		Risk Analysis Research Center (RARC) Statistical Seismology Research Project
Ogata’s English Page I S M	News, Results： Updated on 7 October 2025 日本語 NEW! The revised probabilistic forecast model for the Nankai Trough, published by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion on 26 September 2025, is based on foundational studies by Ogata (2002, JGR) and Nomura et al. (2011, JGR). (26 September 2025) (October 2025) Relevant documents include: https://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/kaikou_pdf/nankai_3.pdf ; https://www.jishin.go.jp/main/chousa/25sep_nankai/kakuritsu250926.pdf NEW! Project Prof. (Prof. Emeritus) Ogata has been highly ranked by ScholarGPS (Meta Analytics) as the world's top expert 2024 in the following specialties (Statistical model #9; Earthquakes #41). (7 April 2025) The 4th STAR-E Study Session / ISM-STAR-E Research Meeting for 2024 (27 December 2024) Prof. Emeritus (Project Prof.) Ogata: An invited lecture: (Title: Development of ETAS models: before its birth to today) at the "Scientific Seminars by renowned international experts - INGV 25th Anniversary" organised by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). (25 November 2024) →see YouTube Video (for Lecture and questions) The ETAS model has been registered as a ‘Value-creating Supreme Treasure’ of the Transdisciplinary Federation of Science and Technology. (19 October 2023) (12 December 2024) Prof. Vere-Jones, David passed away on 31 October 2024. He was a pioneer in the theory and application of statistical seismology, especially in the integration of stochastic point processes with traditional descriptive statistical seismology and made a significant contribution to the formation of our research group, having been always encouragement to our research. He also wrote a groundbreaking book on point processes and played an important role in the global community of statistical seismology. We express our deepest condolences here. (November 2024) (ISM: News Page) 13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei13) (Convention center of Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China, 17-20 March 2024) 12th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei12) (Institut des Etudes Scientifiques de Cargèse, Corsica, France, 17-21 October 2022) The Group's STAR-E project plan is published in "Earthquake Headquarters News": Earthquake Headquarter is placed in the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. (March 2022) Prof. Emeritus Ogata 's (a member of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction) long-term forecast map of major inland earthquakes was introduced in the Nihon Keizai Newspaper (Nikkei e-edition). The full text is available only to subscribers, so please refer to the Report of Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (March 2022) Special Issue on “New Developments and Applications of Hawkes Process" has been published in Proceedings of the Institute of the Statistical Mathematics. (February 2022) Proposal proposed by our group has been adopted by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's national policy project STAR-E. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics introduces the proposal and interview. (January 2022) In the 233rd Conference of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave an invited lecture on "Prediction and validation of short- medium-, and long-term earthquake probabilities using a hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) models, etc. (PDF1). ", in the key session series of "Trial Prediction Experiment (08) - Transition from trial to implementation". (26 November 2021) (January 2022) Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave a tutorial lecture on "ETAS Model - Visualization of Earthquake Activity and Earthquake Prediction" at the press briefing of 49th Seismological Society of Japan on 3 June 2021. (July 2021) Associate Professor Nanjo Kazuyoshi achieved the IOP trusted reviewer status in recognition of his exceptionally high level of peer review for IOP publishing. Founded in 1874, IOP Publishing (previously Institute of Physics Publishing) is the publishing company of the Institute of Physics. It provides publications through which scientific research is distributed worldwide, including journals, community websites, magazines, conference proceedings and books. (April 2021) October 29th, Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave a commemorative lecture to commemorate the Seismological Society of Japan Award at the Seismological Society of Japan Fall Meeting. The title of his talk was "The Evolution of ETAS Models and Modeling of Causal Inference" (November 2020) [Publication in Nature Communications] Nanjo, K.Z. (2020). Were changes in stress state responsible for the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes?, on Nature communications. (17 June 2020) (July 2020) University of Shizuoka, News & Events(29 June 2020) Prof. Emeritus Ogata has received the 2019 Seismological Society of Japan Award. (May 2020) (June 2020) Prof. Emeritus Ogata is organizing a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (November 2019) [EurekAlert! news release] Analyzing seismic patterns to forecast the magnitude of the largest earthquake aftershocks (1 December 2019) Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave lecture at Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology. (16-17 October 2019) “High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models” (Invited talk) and the following a tutorial lecture: “Introduction to Statistical Seismology for Earthquake Prediction Research” Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave lecture at Institute of Theoretical and Application Geophysics, Peking University. (11-14 October 2019) “High resolution inversions with Delaunay triangulation for effective seismicity forecast models” (Invited talk), and the following 　two tutorial lectures: “Introduction to Statistical Seismology”, “Toward probability forecasting of large earthquakes” [Publication in Nature Communications] Shcherbakov, R., Zhuang, J., Zöller, G. and Ogata, Y. (2019). Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake, on Nature communications. (6 September 2019) Prof. Emeritus Ogata has organized a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (August 2019) Workshop on Hawkes processes in data science (Room D313/D314, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan, 27 August 2019). (6 August 2019) 11th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei11) (The Prince Hakone Lake Ashinoko, Motohakone, Kanagawa, Japan, 18-21 August 2019). [Environmetrics, top downloaded 2017-2018] Wang et al.(2018)(Wang, Y., Wang, T. and Zhuang, J. (2018). Modelling continuous time series with many zeros and an application to earthquakes, Environmetrics, Vol.29, Issue4, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2500, June 2018.) has been recognized as a top 20 most read paper in Environmetrics. (6 June 2019) [JPE Most viewed articles; Aug. 2018] The papers by Utsu et al. (1995) and Ogata (1983), published in Journal of Physics of the Earth, has been top 1st(Utsu, T., Ogata, Y. and Matsu’ura, R.S., 1995, Vol.43, Issue1, pp.1-33.） and 3rd(Ogata, Y., 1983, Vol.31, Issue2, pp.115-124.） most viewed articles in the release through J-stage since Apr. 30, 2009. (19 September 2018) Associate Prof. Zhuang gave tutorial lectures the Peking University summer school on “Micro-seismicity Detection and Fault Structure Investigation”. (21-24 July 2018, Peking University) Zhuang, J. “Modelling and Forecasting of Seismicity” Dr. Guo, Yicun presented their research at the International Young Scholar’s Forum of Geophysical Research Frontiers . (24-28 July 2018, Peking University) Guo, Y. “Modelling and forecasting three-dimensional-hypocentre seismicity in the Kanto region” Associate Prof. Zhuang received the outstanding reviewer reward by Geophysical Journal International. (December 2017) (13/12/2017) Associate Prof. Zhuang is appointed as an external professor by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. (July 2017- June 2020) (August 2017) (30/8/2017) Associate Prof. Zhuang and Prof. Emeritus Ogata gave tutorial lectures the Peking University summer school on “Micro--Seismicity Detection and Analysis”. (2-7 July 2017, Peking University) Ogata, Y. “Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalog and hypothesis testing (1)-(2)” Zhuang, J. “Probability modelling and forecasting of seismicity (1)-(4)” Dr. Han, Peng and Dr. Guo, Yicun presented their research results at International Young Scholar’s Forum of Geophysical Research Frontiers: Modern Earthquake Observational Techniques for Chinese Mainland. (8-10 July 2017, Peking University) Han, P. “Advances of researches on ULF seismo-electro magnetic signal in Kanto region, Japan” Guo, Y. “An improved space-time ETAS model for inverting the rupture geometry from seismicity triggering” 10th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei10) (Wellington, New Zealand, 20-24 February 2017). Prof. Emeritus Ogata received Award for the most loyal StatSei eetings attendee. (February 2017) (28/3/2017) Works by Prof. Emeritus Ogata will be televised in NHK Special on Sunday night (Sept. 11, 21:00 - )(TV Japan) (September 2016) PAGEOPH (Pure and Applied Geophysics) Topical Volume – Current Challenges in Statistical Seismology (Editors: Huang, Q., Gerstenberger, M. and Zhuang, J.) has been published. (January 2016) Special Issue on “Earthquake prediction and the statistical model” has been published in Proceedings of the Institute of the Statistical Mathematics, edited and written by our research group. (October 2015) Number of citing papers of the ETAS point process model for seismic activity (Ogata, 1988, JASA) has exceeded 1,000. (September 2015) →Seach “Ogata. Y.” in Google Scholar Number of citing papers of the space-time ETAS point process model (Ogata, 1998, AISM) has exceeded 500. (September 2015) →Seach “Ogata. Y.” in Google Scholar CORSSA Lectures at StatSei. (July 2015) “A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research” (2013: Yosihiko Ogata at StatSei8 in Beijing) 9th International Workshop on Statistical seismology (Statsei9) (Potsdam, Germany, 14 -19 June 2015). ETAS model has been applied to global seismicity (Nature Geoscience). (August 2013) “Published Papers” Page (17 September 2013) The Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction (CCEP), Japan, show policy to go with the the probability forecast. (August 2013) 8th International Workshop on Statistical seismology (Statsei8) (Beijing, China, 11-15 August 2013). We have proposed the method of real-time probability forecasting of aftershocks immediately after the main shock (joint with Aihara FIRST project at Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo). (July 2013) The table providing the completeness magnitude in Japan (JMA catalogue) has been opened. “ Softwares and Database” Page (24 July 2013) International Workshop on CORSSA 2.0 Workshop ---The Second International CORSSA (the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis) Workshop--- (22-25 January 2013). A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research (November 2012). Sankei Newspaper. (11 March 2012) (Japanese) International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes on the occasion of celebrating Prof. Yosi Ogata's 40-year research career in statistical seismology (11-14 March 2012). 12-13 July 2011　ERI Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting (2)" (Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba City, Japan). (6 July 2011) [JGR downloaded, Best 16 per month] Dr. Andrea Llenos (our group member, U.S. Geological Survey) & Dr. Jeffrey J. McGuire (our group member, WHOI, U.S.A.) (published 17 June) became one of the most frequently viewed paper (60 download monthly at 5 July) in JGR Solid Earth. (American Geophysical Union (AGU): JGR Solid Earth ｢Most Popular Articles in the Last 30 Days｣: “Detecting aseismic strain transients from seismicity data” ）(5 July 2011) [JGR downloaded, Best 11 per month] The recent paper by our student Shunichi Nomura et al. (published 30 April) became one of the most frequently viewed paper (48 download monthly at 3 June) in JGR Solid Earth. (American Geophysical Union (AGU): JGR Solid Earth ｢Most Popular Articles in the Last 30 Days｣: “Bayesian forecasting of recurrent earthquakes and predictive performance for a small sample size” ）(3 June 2011) Incidentally, the 2nd best downloaded paper discuss the ETAS model’s performance for short-term forecasting. (AGU: JGR Solid Earth ｢Most Popular Articles in the Last 30 Days｣: “A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence” ）(3 June 2011) Asahi Newspaper has introduced our application to a probability earthquake forecast contest in Japan. (Asahi Newspaper “aspara club”) (Japanese) (18 January 2011) [Top50 citation of Tectonophysics 2005-2010 ] The paper by Prof. Ogata and Dr. Zhuang (Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, Issue 1-2, Pages 13-23.) has been one of the “Top-50 most cited articles” published in Tectonophysics 2005-2010. (29 November 2010) [Published in Nature ] The paper by Prof. Shinji Toda (our group member, Visiting Prof. of the ISM) et al. (2010) on the mechanism for the spatial aftershock distribution is published in Nature. (18 November 2010) [JGR download, 668 times per week] The recent paper by our student Takao Kumazawa et al. (published 30 October) became one of the most frequently viewed paper (668 download weekly at 11 November) in JGR Solid Earth. (American Geophysical Union (AGU):JGR Solid Earth ｢Most Popular｣: “Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake”) ＊Most Popular Journal Articles / Top 4 Weekly Downloads (Across all Journals). (15 November 2010) The next 7th International Workshop on Statistical seismology (Statsei7) (Thera (Santrini), Greece, 25-27 May 2011). (10 November 2010) Column by the leader was published in newspaper of Kanagawa Shinbun on 8 November 2010. (Japanese) (The Graduate University for Advanced Studies [SOKANDAI] Institutional Repository) Dr. Zhuang is contributing to the CORSSA project. (22 September 2010) Prof. Ogata visited Department of Geophysics, Peking University from 12th September to 11th October, 2010 as a Visiting Professor of School of Earth and Space Science. Dr. Zhuang visited Department of Geophysics, Peking University from 12th September to 11th October, 2010 as a Visiting Professor of School of Earth and Space Science. Prof. Ogata is organizing a special topic meeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (August 2010) The Etas model is under discussion in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Project Plan Version 3 (UCERF3). (August 2010) We are working under Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismology of Japan (EFSSJ), Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). (July2010) Prof. Ogata has organized a special topic neeting for the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. (June 2010) International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Seminar Room 3 (D312A), The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 31 May 2010). Prof. Ogata presents Keynote lecture (IL-SONG lecture) at The Spring Korean Statistical Society Annual Meeting (31 May 2010) . Column about Prof. Ogata introduced in the morning newspaper of Asahi Shimbun on 9 February 2010. (Japanese) ISM News No.104 （May, 2009）: “Research Front Line”. (Japanese) Dr. Zhuang of our group emergently invited to join the Sichuang Great Earthquake Expert Group at China Earthquake Administration for the analysis and forecasting of the aftershocks (May-June 2008). The paper in GRL by Dr. Takaki Iwata et al. has been selected in Editor’s Highlights of Geophysical Research Letters published. (American Geophysical Union (AGU): “JOURNAL HIGHLIGHTS” 11 November 2005) The External Review Report on the Statistical Seismology Research Project. (August 2006) Progress Report on the ISM Project 2003-2007.