



Statistical Seismology Seminars F
Updated on
6 March 2023
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The 88th NEW! 1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Hainzl, Sebastian iGFZ German Research Centre for
Geosciences, Germany ESenior
Researcherj DateF@17 March 2023@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D313/314 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics & Online TitleF@Stressbased seismicity modeling AbstractF@ While
the ETAS model successfully describes the firstorder characteristics of
shortterm earthquake clustering due to earthquake interactions, it can only
model earthquake activation, not unloading effects. To be more realistic,
seismicity models based on estimated stress can be applied. Two widelyused
physicsbased seismicity models are the Coulomb Failure and Dieteriches RateState models, which assume preexisting
populations of faults that respond to changes in Coulomb stress. I will
discuss a modified CoulombFailure model in which instantaneous triggering is
replaced by a mean timetofailure that depends exponentially on the absolute
stress value. For critical initial stresses, we show that the model leads to
identical forecasts as the RateState model and reproduces the OmoriUtsu relation for aftershock decays and stressshadowing
effects. Thus, both previous stressbased seismicity models can be seen as
special cases of the new model. However, the new stress response model can
also account for subcritical initial stress conditions, which is particularly
relevant for induced seismicity in intraplate regions. Furthermore, I will
present the results of a recent systematic analysis of the dependence of seismicity
parameters (bvalue and Omoriparameters) on the calculated stress changes
and discuss the possible use of these relationships in seismicity modeling. 2 SpeakerF@Stockman,
Sam iComputational
Statistics and Data Science, University of Bristol, UK EPh.D. Studentj DateF@17 March 2023@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D313/314 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics & Online TitleF@Forecasting the 20162017 Central
Apennines Earthquake Sequence with a Neural Point Process AbstractF@ While
the ETAS model successfully describes the firstorder characteristics of
shortterm earthquake clustering due to earthquake interactions, it can only
model earthquake activation, not unloading effects. To be more realistic,
seismicity models based on estimated stress can be applied. Two widelyused
physicsbased seismicity models are the Coulomb Failure and Dieteriches RateState models, which assume preexisting
populations of faults that respond to changes in Coulomb stress. I will
discuss a modified CoulombFailure model in which instantaneous triggering is
replaced by a mean timetofailure that depends exponentially on the absolute
stress value. For critical initial stresses, we show that the model leads to
identical forecasts as the RateState model and reproduces the OmoriUtsu relation for aftershock decays and stressshadowing
effects. Thus, both previous stressbased seismicity models can be seen as
special cases of the new model. However, the new stress response model can
also account for subcritical initial stress conditions, which is particularly
relevant for induced seismicity in intraplate regions. Furthermore, I will
present the results of a recent systematic analysis of the dependence of
seismicity parameters (bvalue and Omoriparameters) on the calculated stress
changes and discuss the possible use of these relationships in seismicity
modeling. The 87th SpeakerF@Dr.
Sato,
Daisuke iJSPS Research
Fellowship for Young Scientists of Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
Kyoto Universityj DateF@26 December 2022@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 Online TitleF@Inventing appropriate solving methods of
hierarchical Bayesian inversions when using regularization priors AbstractF@ Regularization
(e.g. damping, smoothing, and sparsity) is a robust
technique to resolve ill conditions in inverting model parameters more than
data. However, it leaves questions in tuning the hyperparameters that weight
data misfits and regularization losses, namely, the likelihood and prior.
Therefore, hierarchical Bayes naturally follow to evaluate the model
parameters and hyperparameters probabilistically. In this talk, I introduce
our study on an appropriate solving method for hierarchical Bayesian
problems. In linear inverse problems, surprisingly, we find a significant
part of standard approaches fail to invert many model parameters, including
orthodox Monte Carlos and the posterior maximum, despite the use of
regularization (Sato Fukahata and Nozue, 2022).
Their problematic behaviors are all analytically explained by the entropic
effect of the modelparameter space, which is cared in the empirical Bayes,
as suggested in an early work of Robbins (1956). The same issue remains in
nonlinear problems, and I will also talk about numerical methods under
development to fix this "bug" of ordinary Monte Carlos. The 86th 1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Zhuang, Jiancang iAssociate Prof. of ISMj DateF@14 November 2022@@@TimeF@16:00 16:45 Online TitleF@Evaluating earthquake forecasts with
likelihood based marginal and conditional scores AbstractF@ Earthquake
forecasting consists of the forecasts of the numbers,occurrence times, locations, and magnitudes
of seismic events, and even the correlations among them. In order to evaluate
each component in the forecasting, CSEP provides varieties of testing
criterions but still far from enough. In this study, starting from the
essential meanings of the full likelihood of a point process, I will explain
how to evaluate the marginal likelihoods for each component in the forecasts
and the conditional likelihoods for some components under the condition that
some other components are given. These marginal and conditional likelihoods
are the bases for
the marginal and conditional scores in performance evaluation when multiple
models are used in forecasting. 2 SpeakerF@Sofiane
Rahmani iCenter of
Research in Astronomy, Astrophysics and Geophysics(CRAAG), Algeria EPh.D. Studentj DateF@14 November 2022@@@TimeF@16:45 17:30 Online TitleF@Timedependent and spatiotemporal
statistical analysis of Algerian seismicity AbstractF@ Northeastern
Algeria is known by its high seismic activity as reflected by several
hundreds of events occurring every year. Recently, this area has been the
seat of several seismic sequences such as the 2010 BeniIlmane
earthquake sequence and the 2012–2013 Bejaia
earthquake sequences. On the other hand, it is also observed that the seismic
activity of this part of Algeria is dominated by swarms, with high
concentrations in time and space, from a few days to several months, ranging
from a few kilometers to ten kilometers, and sometimes showing a migration of
several kilometers in several weeks. Our
main objective is to understand the global behavior of this seismic zone, it
is of crucial importance to understand what are the soliciting forces and how
they interact. These rupture processes are still under debate, but can be
deduced from the analysis of seismic swarms or aftershock sequences, as both
share similarities. Using a model corresponding to accurate detection and
relocation, we will study seismic clusters in detail by analyzing it from the
inside by identifying the different families that compose it. In doing so, we
will isolate the aftershocks, induced by the coseismic
stress transfer, from the swarmlike events, and we will analyze separately
their spatiotemporal behavior by a fine
statistical analysis. Because the stochastic models, which include an
increasing part of physical reasoning, have been slowly accepted during the
last three decades. The subject of statistical seismology aims at bridging
the gap between physicsbased models without statistics, and statisticsbased
models without physics. Our objectives are also to understand what mechanisms
are at work in the case of sequences and in the case of swarms, to see to
what extent it is possible to link the observations and analyses that will be
carried out to the regional seismotectonic context, and to understand what
influence this may have for the calculation of seismic hazard. The 85th SpeakerF@Dr.
Nishikawa,
Tomoaki iAssistant
Professor of Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University/ Visiting
Researcher of ISMj DateF@3 October 2022@@@TimeF@16:15 18:15 Online TitleF@Application of the ETAS model to slow
earthquake research AbstractF@ The
epidemictype aftershocksequence (ETAS) model is a standard statistical
model of fast earthquake activity. We are attempting to apply the ETAS model
to slow earthquake research. The attempts are focused on the following three
topics: (1) detection of slow earthquakes, (2) improvement of the ETAS model
by considering slow earthquake activity, and (3) construction of a
statistical model to describe slow earthquake activity. In this presentation,
we will present the results of (1) regarding the elucidation of the slow
earthquake distribution in the Japan Trench and preliminary results regarding
(2) and (3). The 84th SpeakerF@Peng,
Hong iResearch
Center for Earthquake Prediction, Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
Kyoto UniversityE Ph.D.
Studentj DateF@7 July 2022@@@TimeF@16:00 18:00 Online TitleF@Characteristics of foreshocks
preceding the mainshocks in Japan AbstractF@ Studying
the foreshocks is an important way to understand the physical mechanism of
earthquakes. In this research, I will use the Japan Meteorological Agency
(JMA) earthquake catalogue from 2001 to 2021 to investigate the
spatiotemporal characteristics of foreshocks for mainshocks. I have three
important conclusions about the earthquakes in Japan: 1) No dependence of the
mainshock magnitude on the foreshock magnitude; 2) No obvious trend between
the foreshockmainshock distance and the mainshock magnitude; 3) A decrease
in the foreshockmainshock time difference with the increased foreshock
magnitude. These results of the foreshockmainshock sequence seem to be more
consistent with the triggering mechanism rather than the
nucleationcontrolled process. Thus, I suggest that the ecascade modelf or
rupturecontrolled model is more reasonable for explaining the physical
mechanism of earthquakes in Japan. The 83rd SpeakerF@Dr.
Petrillo, Giuseppe iVisiting
Researcher of ISM / DateF@26 April 2022@@@TimeF@16:00 18:00 Online TitleF@Statistical mechanics models for
seismic occurrence AbstractF@ Earthquake
occurrence is characterized by quite universal scaling relationships, in
particular regarding the events after a big shock: the aftershocks. Here I
discuss a fault model of two elastic interfaces with different rheology. This
model contains a mechanism for the aftershock occurrence and I will show that
our data recover the experimental scaling relationships at an excellent
qualitative level. We also find that large earthquakes are often anticipated
by a preparatory phase characterized by the occurrence of foreshocks.
Finally, I will mention that thanks to these models, it is possible to carry
out extensive simulations to verify the predictability of seismic phenomena. The 82nd SpeakerF@Dr.
Yano, Keisuke iAssociate
Professor of ISMj DateF@1 February 2022@@@TimeF@16:30 18:00 Online TitleF@l1 trend filtering based detection of
slow slip events AbstractF@ Slow
slip events characterized by a slower fault rapture compared to regular
earthquakes have been discovered in tectonic zones worldwide and have helped
us understand the surrounding stress environment including megathrust zone.
In this talk, I will present a new detection method of slow slip events using
l1 trend filtering, a sparse estimation technique together with combined
pvalue techniques. The proposed method provides not only candidates of the
events but also confidence values for detections. The synthetic tests showed
that our method successfully detect almost all events with few misdetections.
The application to real data in the Nankai subduction zone in western
Shikoku, southwest Japan, revealed our method detected new potential events
in addition to all known events. The 81st SpeakerF@Dr.
Takeo, Akiko iEarthquake
Research Institute, University of Tokyo EAssistant
Professorj DateF@16 November 2021@@@TimeF@16:00 18:00 Online TitleF@Observation, detection, evaluation and
interpretation of slow earthquakes: is it episodic or chaotic? AbstractF@ I
introduce observation of slow earthquakes by broadband seismometers in the
Nankai subduction zone. This includes (i) how to
detect deep very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) with moment magnitudes of
~3 at the period range of 2050 s related to tectonic tremors at a frequency
range of 28 Hz, (ii) how to evaluate the reliabilities of individual and
total VLFE detections, and (iii) how to interpret the VLFE activities. I
currently focus on the temporal change in the activity mode from episodic to
potential chaotic during a highstress loading period, which might be
mathematically and physically interesting. The 80th
SpeakerF@Shen,
Xun iPh.D.
Student of The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (SOKENDAI)j DateF@19 October 2021@@@TimeF@16:00  18:00 Online TitleF@Residual Analysis for State Space
Models AbstractF@ This
presentation introduces a novel residual analysisbased algorithm for model
learning and hidden state inference in StateSpace Models (SSMs) with a
nonlinear response. An SSM with nonlinear response has linear state equation
while the observation equation includes a linear part and a nonlinear part,
where the information of the nonlinear part is not available. In this study,
a neural network model is used to approximate the unknown nonlinear part in
the observation equation, and an ExpectationMaximization (EM) algorithm is
proposed to infer the hidden state and learn the parameters in both the
linear part and the neural network model, from the given sequences of input
data and observation data. In the EStep, the posterior mean and covariance
for the system hidden state given the sequences of the system input and
observations is inferred via a Kalman filterbased forward recursion and
RauchTungStreibel smoother backward recursion. In
the MStep, the model parameters are optimized according to the inferred
hidden state, input data, and observation data. The MStep consists of two
components: a reconstruction procedure, in which uses the residuals of the
linear model to fit the neural network model, and a parametrization
procedure, which identifies the parameters in the linear part of the state
space model. We apply this newly proposed method to a numerical example and
in a case study of battery capacity estimation. The results show that the proposed
method can achieve better performance on the model learning and hidden state
inference than previously developed tools. The 79th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Ting iOtago Univeristy (Department of Mathematics and Statistics),
New ZealandEAssociate
Professorj DateF@21 September 2021@@@TimeF@13:00 14F00 Online TitleF@A time series model for forecasting
earthquake energy release AbstractF@ Large
earthquakes often occur repeatedly. Modelling the history of earthquakes can
help forecast future hazardous events. In this talk, I will present a time
series model that we have developed to study recurrence patterns of
earthquakes. This model captures both the intensity of earthquake occurrence
and patterns of earthquake energy release in time. I will discuss the
forecasts of earthquake energy release using this model. The 78th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Xiong, Ziyao iProject
Assistant Professor of ISMj DateF@27 July 2021@@@TimeF@16:00  18:00 Online TitleF@The Research of LongTerm Earthquake
Hazard Estimated from a Modern Catalog AbstractF@ In
this study, to obtain optimal estimates of the earthquake hazard in North
China based on the modern earthquake catalog, we used two variable kernel
function estimation methods, proposed by Stock and Smith, and Zhuang, the
Bayesian Delaunay tessellation smoothing method by Ogata (ODTB), and a newly
proposed incomplete centroidal Voronoi tessellation (ICVT) method, to calculate
the total and background seismic spatial occurrence rates for the study area.
The sophisticated ODTB method is more stable than the others, but is
relatively expensive, in terms of computation demands, whereas Zhuang et
al.fs kernel estimate and the new ICVT method are able to provide reasonable
estimates and easier to implement. We also calculated the spatial variations
of the bvalue, using the Bayesian method with smoothness prior proposed by
Ogata. Using comparative analyses and simulation experiments, we show that
all the methods give similar spatial patterns of seismic occurrences. The 77th SpeakerF@Dr.
Yamada, Masumi iDisaster
Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University EAssistant Professorj DateF@24 June 2021@@@TimeF@16:00 18:00 Online TitleF@IPFx: a new
source determination algorithm for earthquake early warning AbstractF@ An
earthquake early warning (EEW) system rapidly analyzes seismic data to report
the occurrence of an earthquake before strong shaking is felt at a site. In
Japan, the integrated particle filter (IPF) method, a new source estimation
algorithm, was recently incorporated into the EEW system to improve the
source estimation accuracy during active seismicity. The problem of the
current IPF method is that it uses the trigger information computed at each
station in a specific format as the input and is therefore applicable to only
limited seismic networks. This study proposes the extended IPF (IPFx) method to deal with continuous waveforms and merge
all Japanese realtime seismic networks into a single framework. The new
source determination algorithm processes seismic waveforms in two stages. The
first stage (singlestation processing) extracts trigger and amplitude
information from continuous waveforms. The second stage (network processing)
accumulates information from multiple stations and estimates the location and
magnitude of ongoing earthquakes based on Bayesian inference. In 10 months of
continuous online experiments, the IPFx method
showed good performance in detecting earthquakes with maximum seismic
intensity >=3 in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalog. By merging
multiple seismic networks into a single EEW system, the warning time of the
current EEW system can be improved further. The IPFx
method provides accurate shaking estimation even at the beginning of event
detection and achieves seismic intensity error <0.2 5 s after detecting an
event. This method correctly avoided two major false alarms on January 5,
2018, and July 30, 2020. The IPFx method offers the
potential of expanding the JMA IPF method to global seismic networks. The 76th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Chang, Ying iDepartment
of Earth and Space Sciences, DateF@14 January 2020@@@TimeF@13:30 14:30 LocationF@Room D313/314 (Seminar Room),
Institute of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Differences between mantle wedge
earthquakes and intraslab intermediatedepth
earthquakes from spatial bvalue image AbstractF@ Intermediatedepth
earthquakes follow the power law distribution, the GutenbergRichter law logN=abM. The bvalue shows
the proportion of small magnitude earthquakes relative to the large ones. A
large proportion of small earthquakes usually appears in high thermal anomaly
region and low ambient stress status field. High bvalue anomalies in
subduction zones have been associated with dehydration of subducting oceanic
crust, which is a plausible mechanism of intermediatedepth earthquakes, or
low velocities indicating magmatic activities. The analysis of bvalue may be
a useful tool to investigate the mechanisms of earthquakes and an indicator
of structural difference in subduction zones, and especially beneficial to
subduction zones which have intensive small magnitude earthquakes. In
southwestern Colombian subduction zone, a high rate of intermediatedepth
earthquakes appears in the Cauca cluster from the earthquake catalog of Servicio Geológico Colombiano. Previous study of the intermediatedepth
earthquakes in the cluster show a continuous 20km
thick seismic zone dipping to southeast with 33–43 dip angle increasing to
the south, and two mantle wedge earthquake columns extending 30–40 km normal
to and above the top surface of the subducting slab. The focal mechanisms of
earthquakes in the cluster have various types and variable orientations of
nodal planes. The intermediatedepth earthquakes in southwestern Colombian
subduction zone occur in a spatial variant tectonic stress field and have
complex mechanisms. Intraslab earthquakes generally
have smaller bvalue than mantle wedge earthquakes. In the slab, high bvalue
anomalies appear in the top layer of the subducting slab and the mantle
wedge. The facts of focal mechanisms, the stress fields, and bvalue anomalies
indicate dehydrated fluid involved structures and magmatic activities. The 75th 1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Li, Honglei iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China E Assistant Professorj DateF@28 August 2019@@@TimeF@13:00 13:45 LocationF@Room D313/314 (Seminar Room),
Institute of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Bayesian assimilation inversion of
gravity anomalies and parameters optimization AbstractF@ It is
well known that the gravity inversion is a classical illposed problem. The
parameters of regularization must be introduced for inversion. In this study,
we design a Bayesian assimilation inversion strategy, according to the
subjective blindness problems in the gravity anomaly inversion, which can
optimize balance multisource gravimetric data, various model constraints and
multiple hyperparameters which related to the accuracies of the observation
data. We employed the Akaikefs Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) for the
estimated these tradeoff parameters. Based on this novel strategy, we
designed some cases to test gravity inversion using gravity datasets from the
difference measurements with varying accuracy levels. This inversion strategy
can achieve different type gravimetric observations integration primely,
evaluate the observations and prior model constraints weight objectively and
it will have a very bright application prospect in the future. 2 SpeakerF@Prof.
Chen, Shi iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China EProfessorj DateF@28 August 2019@@@TimeF@13:45 15:00 LocationF@Room D313/314 (Seminar Room),
Institute of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@A Bayesian approach of network adjustment
for campaigned gravity survey: methodology and model test AbstractF@ The
drift rate of the relative gravimeter differs from time to time and from meter
to meter, and it is inefficient to estimate the drift rate by returning to
the base station or stations with known gravity value frequently in a
campaigned gravity survey for the largescale region. Unlike the conventional
gravity adjustment procedure which employed a linear drift model, we assumed
the variation of drift rate is a smooth function of the timelapse, and
proposed a new gravity data adjustment method by means of objective Bayesian
statistical interference. Some hyperparameters were used to as tradeoff to
balance the fitted residuals of gravity differences between station pairs and
the smoothness of the temporal variation of the drift rate. We employed the
Akaikefs Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to estimate these
hyperparameters. A comparison between results from applying the classical
and the Bayesian adjustment methods to some simulated datasets shows that the
new method is more robust and adaptive for solving the problems that are
caused by the irregular nonlinear meter drift. The new adjustment method is
capable to recover the timevarying drift rate function of each gravimeter,
and also to optimize the weight constraints for each gravimeter that is used
in the gravity survey. We also carried out an error analysis for the inverted
gravity value at each station on based the marginal distribution. Finally, we
used this approach to process the real campaigned gravity data from an
observation network in North China. In this study, we rewrite the network
adjustment equations by introducing new tradeoff parameters that balance the
residual of campaigned gravity data and the drift rate of the relative
gravimeter. This new method is tested with some synthetic datasets that are
been simulated with different drift models based on a real gravity
observation network. A comprehensive analysis on the fitting residuals and
the accuracy of adjustment is carried out. 3
SpeakerF@Dr.
Bayona, Jose Antonio iGFZ German
Research Center for Geosciences E
Postdoctoral fellowj DateF@28 August 2019@@@TimeF@1530 16:15 LocationF@Room D313/314 (Seminar Room),
Institute of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@An updated global hybrid earthquake
model obtained from the optimal combination of interseismic
strain rates and smoothedseismicity data AbstractF@ The
construction of global seismicity forecasts gives promise of deﬁnitive
prospective test results to be obtained in only a decade. Hence, there have
been several eﬀorts to generate global earthquakerate
models based on interseismic strain rates and earthquakecatalog
data, which currently provide highresolution global coverage. The Global
Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR1) seismicity model, for instance, optimally
combines crustal deformation rates with smoothedseismicity information to
forecast longterm rates of earthquake production worldwide. The
total earthquake number, spatial, and magnitude distributions forecasted by
GEAR1 are all consistent with observed seismicity, according to 2yr
prospective test results. Nonetheless, inconsistencies in spatial seismicity
between the Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics
(SHIFT_GSRM2f) earthquake forecast, the tectonic parent component of GEAR1,
and the observations are also found during the evaluation period. These
discrepancies primarily stem from SHIFT_GSRM2f underestimations of
subductionzone earthquake activity. The
Subduction Megathrust Earthquake Rate Forecast (SMERF) earthquake model was accordingly
designed to improve SHIFT_GSRM2f estimates of shallow interface seismicity.
SMERF is based on the use of regional seismicity parameters and the
conservation of moment principle. Therefore, the physicsbased and
datadriven approach of SMERF is desired to upgrade the tectonic parent
component of GEAR1. In
this study, we integrate SMERF earthquake rates in subduction zones with
SHIFT_GSRM2f estimates everywhere else on Earth to generate a new global
geodeticbased earthquake model, referred to as the Tectonic Earthquake
Activity Model (TEAM) seismicity forecast. We detect signiﬁcant spatial
variations of earthquake activity between SHIFT_GSRM2f and TEAM in all
subduction zones. Particularly, we identify the major diﬀerences
within subduction interfaces like Bougainville, Southern Kuril and Western
Alaska. We
moreover combine TEAM with the Kagan–Jackson smoothed seismicity (KJSS)
model, the earthquake parent component of GEAR1, to create an updated hybrid
seismicity model named GEAR2. We currently explore the optimal combination of
geodetic strain rates and earthquake catalog data needed to better
characterize spatial earthquake patterns worldwide. Finally, we will submit
the earthquakerate forecasts to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability (CSEP) testing center for independent retrospective,
pseudoprospective and prospective evaluation. The 74th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Chen, Feng iSchool of
Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, AustraliaESenior Lecturerj DateF@21 May 2019@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Direct Likelihood Evaluation for the
Renewal Hawkes Process AbstractF@ An interesting
extension of the widely applied Hawkes selfexiting point process, the
renewal Hawkes (RHawkes) process, was recently
proposed by Wheatley et al. (2016 CSDA), which has the potential to
significantly widen the application domains of the selfexciting point
processes. However, the authors claimed that computation of the likelihood of
the RHawkes process requires exponential time and
therefore is practically impossible. They proposed two
ExpectationMaximization (EM) type algorithms to compute the maximum
likelihood estimator (MLE) of the model parameters. Because of the
fundamental role of likelihood in statistical inference, a practically
feasible method for likelihood evaluation is highly desirable. In this talk
we present an algorithm that evaluates the likelihood of the RHawkes process in quadratic time, a drastic improvement
from the exponential time claimed by Wheatley et al. We demonstrate the
superior performance of the resulting MLEs of the model relative to the EM
estimators through simulations. We also present a computationally efficient
procedure to calculate the Rosenblatt residuals of the process for
goodnessoffit assessment, and a simple yet efficient procedure for future
event prediction. The proposed methodologies were applied on real data from
seismology and finance. This talk is based on joint work with Tom Stindl. The R package implementing the proposed
methodology is available on the CRAN:
https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/RHawkes/. The 73rd
SpeakerF@Prof.
Wang, Baoshan iEarthquake
and Volcano Research Center Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya
University EVisiting
Professor (University of Science
and Technology of China E
Professor)j DateF@23 April 2019@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Migration of microearthquakes during
cyclic operation of Underground Gas Storage and the Changdao
earthquake swarm AbstractF@ The
distribution of earthquakes is controlled by the stress state and material
properties. And the migration of earthquakes can be used to infer the changes
in subsurface stress or medium properties. In this presentation, we will
introduce two case studies of seismicity migrations related respectively to
the Hutubi Underground Gas Storage (UGS) in Junggar
Basin and the Changdao earthquake swarm occurred in
the Bohai Sea. We first use the matched and filter technique to detect more
events than the local catalog. And then we relocate the detected events using
double difference method with waveform crosscorrelationbased differential
traveltimes. Microearthquakes clearly migrate outward from the UGS during
the cyclic operation, the migration may result from the stress transfer
during multiple injection and extraction. The seismicity during Changdao earthquake swarm unilaterally migrated
southwest accompanied by some bursts along several conjugate faults. We
suggest that fluid diffusions are responsible for the earthquake migration in
Changdao. The 72nd 1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Chen, Xiaofei iDepartment
of Earth and Space Sciences, Southern University of Science and Technology,
China E Professorj DateF@22 January 2019@@@TimeF@13:30 14:30 LocationF@Room A504 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Phase diagram of earthquakes and
implications 2 SpeakerF@Dr.
Nanjo, Kazuyoshi iGlobal
Center for Asian and Regional Research, University of Shizuoka E Project Associate Professorj DateF@22 January 2019@@@TimeF@14:30 15:30 LocationF@Room A504 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@An investigation into the relation
between the occurrence of large earthquakes and timedependent decrease in b
value AbstractF@ The
GutenbergRichter frequencymagnitude distribution of earthquakes is well
established in seismology. The b value, the slope of the relation between
frequency and magnitude is typically 1, but it often shows variations around
1. The b value has shown a pronounced decrease over several years prior to
large earthquakes around their hypocenters. Specific examples include the
M9class 2011 Tohoku and 2004 Sumatra earthquakes (e.g., Nanjo et al., 2012).
However, it has remained uncertain whether there is the existence of tendency
that large earthquakes occur, following the appearance of bvalue decrease.
To prove this existence, we are now trying to create a method to make and
evaluate trial retrospective forecasts of large earthquakes (e.g., M8+
earthquakes from 1980 to 2017 on the worldwide basis, using the ANSS
catalog), based on decreasing trend in b values. This is still ongoing
research, so that, in this talk, we present the preliminary result. Based on it, we then discuss the
possibility that a decrease in b values can be considered as a precursor to
large earthquakes and an important indicator that has potential in terms of
forecasting large earthquakes. 3
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Yuchen iEarthquake
Research Institute, University of Tokyo E
Postdoctoral fellowj DateF@22 January 2019@@@TimeF@1530 16:30 LocationF@Room A504 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Tsunami Data Assimilation in Disaster
Mitigation AbstractF@ Tsunami
data assimilation has been proposed for tsunami early warning. It estimates
the tsunami waveform by assimilating offshore observed data into a numerical
simulation, without calculating initial sea surface height at the source. The
optimum interpolation method is adopted in data assimilation. However,
previous data assimilation method has a relatively high computational load,
as it is necessary to run numerical simulations to obtain the tsunami
wavefield. In
our research, we proposed a new tsunami data assimilation approach based on Greenfs function to reduce the computation time for
tsunami early warning. Greenfs Functionbased Tsunami Data Assimilation
(GFTDA) forecasts the waveforms at Points of Interest (PoIs)
by superposition of Greenfs functions between
observation stations and PoIs. Unlike the previous
assimilation approach, GFTDA does not require the calculation of the tsunami
wavefield for the whole region during the assimilation process, because the Greenfs functions have been calculated in advance. The
forecasted waveforms can be calculated by a simple matrix manipulation. This
approach greatly reduces the time cost for tsunami warning because it no
longer needs to run the tsunami propagation model, as long as the Greenfs functions are calculated in advance. By combining
with HuygensFresnel Principle, this method could be applied to regions
without a dense observation network. The applications to the 2012 Haida Gwaii
earthquake, the 2004 off the Kii Peninsula
earthquake and the 2009 Dusky Sound earthquake revealed that GFTDA helped
achieve a more accurate and quicker tsunami early warning while saving the
cost. The 71st
SpeakerF@Dr.
Harte, David iGNS
Science, New Zealand EStatistical
Seismologist and Hazard Modellerj DateF@6 November 2018@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D313 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Evaluation of Earthquake Stochastic
Models Based on Their RealTime Forecasts: A Case Study of Kaikoura 2016 AbstractF@ The
M7.8 Kaikoura NZ earthquake started at 20161113 11:02:56 (UTC) with epicentre (173.02 deg E, 42.69 deg S), 15km NE of Culverden, and lasted for about two minutes. It caused
multiple fault ruptures to the north as far as Seddon (150km from epicentre), the location of a large sequence in 2013.
Since the mainshock, the bulk of the aftershock activity has also migrated to
the north. We analyse realtime probability forecasts produced during
the Kaikoura 2016 aftershock sequence, based on a spatial ETAS model.
Forecasts were derived by simulating the model forward over the required time
interval multiple times. Each forecast was evaluated at the end of the
forecast time interval by comparing with the number of events that eventually
occurred. Further, the spatial and temporal forecast characteristics were
evaluated by comparing the actual loglikelihood with those of the
simulations. We
show that the model was forecasting too fewer aftershocks immediately after
the mainshock, and too many aftershocks in the later stages of the sequence.
The too fewer aftershocks is probably caused by many
missing smaller events early in the sequence and an initial large
underestimate of the mainshock magnitude, being 6.6 with a final solution of
7.8 three days later. Various catalogue, model and methodological problems
become evident during such a realtime experiment and these are also
discussed. The 70th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Chen, Shi iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China EAssociate Professorj DateF@28 August 2018@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@A new approach for terrestrial
relative gravity adjustment using smoothness priors of drift rate AbstractF@ The
relative gravimeter, which generally uses zerolength springs as the gravity
senor, is still as the first choice in the field of terrestrial gravity
measurement because of its efficiency and lowcost. Because the drift rate of
instrument can be changed with the time and meter, it is necessary for
estimating the drift rate to back to the base or known gravity value stations
for repeated measurement at regular hourfs interval during the practical
survey. However, the campaigned gravity survey for the largescale region,
which the distance of stations is far away from serval or tens kilometers,
the frequent back to close measurement will highly reduce the gravity survey
efficiency and extremely timeconsuming. In this study, we proposed a new
gravity data adjustment method for estimating the meter drift by means of
Bayesian statistical interference. In our approach, we assumed the change of
drift rate is a smooth function depend on the timelapse. The tradeoff
parameters were be used to control the fitting residuals. We employed the
Akaikefs Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) for the estimated these
tradeoff parameters. The comparison and analysis of simulated data between
the classical and Bayesian adjustment show that our method is robust and has
selfadaptive ability for facing to the unregularly nonlinear meter drift. At
last, we used this novel approach to process the realistic campaigned gravity
data at the North China. Our adjustment method is suitable to recover the
timevaried drift rate function of each meter, and also to detect the meter
abnormal drift during the gravity survey. We also defined an alternative
error estimation for the inversed gravity value at each station on the basis
of the marginal distribution theory. The 69th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Varini, Elisa iInstitute
of Applied Mathematics and Information Technology, National Research Council(CNRIMATI), Italy EResearcherj DateF@20 March 2018@@@TimeF@13:3014:30 LocationF@4F Lounge, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@Identification of earthquake clusters
in Northeastern Italy by different approaches AbstractF@ Earthquakes
do not occur randomly in space and time; rather, they tend to group into
clusters that can be classified according to their different properties,
presumably related to the specific geophysical properties of a seismic
region. Thus, we aim at exploring the spatiotemporal
features of earthquake clusters in North eastern Italy, based on a
systematic analysis of robustly and uniformly detected seismic clusters
reported in the local bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography
and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. First, data are analysed
by a method for detection of earthquake clusters, based on gnearestneighbor
dis tancesh between events in spacetimeenergy
domain (Baiesi and Paczuski,
2004). Then they are analysed by applying a
stochastic declustering algorithm based on ETAS
model (Zhuang, Ogata, and VereJones, 2002), in which events are associ ated to clusters in
accordance with their estimated probability distributions. Both methods allow
for a robust datadriven identification of seismic clusters, and permit to
disclose possible complex features in the internal structure of the
identified clus ters. By
comparing these approaches, we take advantage of a different description of
the clustering process in order to assess consistency and reliability of the
findings. We found some evidence that swarmlike sequences are mostly
associated with the northwestern part of the study region, while burstlike
sequences tend to occur in the southeastern part of it. Key words:
earthquake clustering, nearestneighbor distance, stochastic decluster ing, ETAS model. The 68th
SpeakerF@Prof.
Ma, KuoFong iDepartment
of Earth Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan EProfessorj DateF@31 January 2018@@@TimeF@13:3014:30 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Probability on Seismic Hazard
Assessment of Taiwan: Progress and Challenge AbstractF@ Taiwan
Earthquake Model published the first public PSHA map of Taiwan in late 2015,
and had been widely discussed and adopted in a way toward seismic hazard
mitigation and risk assessment. The model adopts the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures under a single fault segment
basis, and shallow areal source for crustal events, and, intraplate, and interplate subduction events. To evaluate the potential
groundshaking resulting from each seismic source, the corresponding
groundmotion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes are
adopted. The highest hazard probability is evaluated to be in Southwestern
Taiwan and the Longitudinal Valley of Eastern Taiwan. Right after the
publication of PSHA2015, a damaging earthquake of 2016 Meinong
M6.6 earthquake occurred in southwestern Taiwan from nonidentified seismogenic structure. Historically, significant crustal
damaging earthquakes in Taiwan mostly were from complicated fault system
rather than from a single fault segment (e.g. 1935
M7.5 HsinchuTaichung, and 1906 M7.1 Meishan earthquakes). Technically, the
2016 M6.6 Meinong earthquake could be categorized
into areal source event. The 1906 M7.1 Meishan earthquake, recently, had been
resolved to be from a fault system of blind NE strike thrust with EW surface
breaching fault (one of the identified seismogenic
structures). These events suggest that a single fault segment evaluation for
seismic hazard might be inadequate. Despite the difficulty in giving slip
rate of a single segment into the probability calculation, how to deal with
the slip rate in probability from complex fault system is a challenge. In the
same time, PSHA evaluation of ground motion from areal source and active
fault might double count the hazard for an event involved from the both category. How to determine the maximum magnitude events
from areal source, and the delineation of the involvement of the areal source
event to complex fault system brought another attention on the source
categorization and its partition in probability for seismic hazard
assessment. The 67th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wu, Stephen iAssistant
Professor of ISMj DateF@3 October 2017@@@TimeF@16:3017:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Review of earthquake early warning
from an engineering perspective AbstractF@ After
the concept of earthquake early warning (EEW) first appeared in the 1980s, we
now have officially working EEW systems around the world, such as, Japan,
Taiwan, Mexico, USA, Italy, and so on. The algorithms of EEW have evolved to
a large variety, including both onsite, regional and some hybrid methods.
The underlying seismic model ranges from simple pointsource ground motion
prediction equations to sophisticated finite fault prediction models.
Recently, researchers have also proposed to develop realtime GPS based EEW
and purely datadriven seismic intensity prediction models. Besides the
scientific advances, engineering applications of EEW have became
another important research topic. In this talk, I will briefly go through all
the topics above in a practical implementation point of view, and highlight
some important challenge of EEW. The 66th
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Wu, Jing iInstitute
of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Science, China E Associate Professorj DateF@29 August 2017@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Seismicity and Seismic Anisotropy
beneath eastern Tibet AbstractF@ Eastern
Tibet is one of the most tectonically active areas in Chinese Mainland. SongpanGanzi Block, Longmenshan
Orogenic Belt, and Sichuan Basin are located in this area from west to east.
The uplifting mechanisms of eastern Tibet are hot debated in recent years. In
addition, a
series of great earthquakes in eastern Tibet (2008 Wenchuan Mw7.9, 2013
Lushan Mw6.6, and the most recent 2017 Jiuzhaigou
Mw6.5) show the urgent need for accurate seismicity detection, as we are
still not clear how aftershocks evolve because of the poor station coverage
and overlapping of aftershocks. Here,
I would like to present our studies in eastern Tibet, including seismic
anisotropy and seismicity detection. Crustal anisotropy are inversed
according to shearwave splitting of Pms phase from
permanent station, and we observed that tectonic escaping, crustal flow, and
crustal shortening may contribute to the tectonic evolution in various
subareas in eastern Tibet. We also concentrated on the seismicity detection
of 2013 Lushan earthquakes, and obtained details of the spatial and temporal
aftershock evolution with the help of matched filter technique, suggesting
that afterslip is the potential mechanism
triggering Lushan aftershocks. In
order to understand more about eastern Tibet, we would keep on working in
this area by focusing on the SKS, SKKS, PKS (hereafter, XKS phase) splitting
and repeating earthquakes, which may reveal geodynamic processes in mantle
and fault slip rate respectively. 2
SpeakerF@Dr.
Mak, Sum iGerman
Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZPotsdam), Germany E Research Assistantj DateF@29 August 2017@@@TimeF@17:00 18:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Empirical Validation of Seismic Hazard
Models AbstractF@ Seismic
hazard, for applications such as engineering structural design and insurance
loss estimation, is represented as a probabilistic forecast. The most common
form of seismic hazard representation is in the probability for a certain
level of ground motion exceedance. The hazard also varies spatially, forming
a hazard map. As
the amount of observation accumulates, recently there are more and more
attempts to statistically evaluate the performance of probabilistic seismic
hazard prediction using ground motion observations. This talk presents the
general theory of this type of studies, using the United States Geological
Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps as an example. The 65th
SpeakerF@Prof.
Liu, JannYenq iInstitute
of Space Science, National Central University, Taiwan EProfessorj DateF@13 June 2017@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Statistical Analyses on seismoionospheric disturbances and precursors of the 11
March 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake AbstractF@ Groundbased
observations of the GPS TEC (total electron content) and satellite probing of
radio occultation (RO) of FORMOSAT3/COSMIC (F3/C) are employed to study the
coseismic disturbances and precursors of the 11 March 2011 M9.0 Tohoku
earthquake. It is for the first
time the tsunami origin observed.
The horizontal propagation of seismotraveling
ionospheric disturbances (STIDs) induced by tsunami and seismic waves of the
Tohoku earthquake are observed by the GPS TEC, while the associated vertical
propagation is probed by multi groundbased observations and F3/C RO
sounding. The raytracing and
beamforming techniques are used to find the propagation and origin of the
STIDs triggered by the seismic and tsunami waves. Meanwhile, z test and the
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve are employed to find the
characteristic of the temporal SIPs (seismoionospheric
precursor) of the GIM (global ionosphere map) TEC associated with earthquakes
in Japan during 19982014. It is
found that anomalies appearing 3 days before the Tohoku earthquake well agree
with the characteristic, which suggests that the SIPs of the earthquake have
been observed. A global study on
the distribution of anomalies shows that the SIPs specifically and
continuously occur over the epicenter on 8 March 2011, 3 days prior to the
Tohoku earthquake. Finally, a
physical model of the ionosphere is used to reproduce the observed anomalies
and find possible causal of the Tohoku SIPs. The 64th
1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Jiang, Changsheng iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China E Research Professorj DateF@29 March 2017@@@TimeF@13:30 14:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Assessment of earthquake monitoring capability
and score of seismic station detection capability in China Seismic Network
(2008~2015) AbstractF@ In
order to scientifically assess the earthquake monitoring capability of China
Seismic Network (CSN), we investigated the seismic observation date of CSN
with total 1001 stations considered during the period from 2008/10/01 to
2015/09/17. The distribution of seismic detection probability (PE) and the
minimum magnitude of completeness (MP) were analyzed by using the method of
"Probabilitybased magnitude of completeness" (PMC). In addition to
mapping the seismic monitoring capability for entire CSN, we developed a new
method named gseismic monitoring capability scaleh, and defined the seismic
detection capability scale Dscore to analyze the
statistical characters and spatial distribution of the seismic detection
capabilities for each national and regional stations, which based on the
amplitude contour curves. Additionally, the method of setting the "best
objective function" of seismic detection capability was used to simulate
the seismic monitoring capability improvement of CSN obtained by improving
the conditions of observation. 2
SpeakerF@Prof.
Chen, Shi iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China E Research Professorj DateF@29 March 2017@@@TimeF@14:30 15:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Gravity changes before and after the
2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal and the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquakes AbstractF@ Absolute
gravity measurements at four stations in southern Tibet show significant
gravity increase from 2011 to 2013, up to ~22 ΚGals
at the Shigatse station. Here we report new
measurements at the Shigatse station conducted in
2016, which show that the gravity increase ended after the 2015 Nepal Mw 7.8
earthquake. Similar gravity changes are measured at the Pixian
absolute gravimetry station near the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan Mw 7.9
earthquake, where 17 absolute gravity measurements have been conducted since
2002, including four preearthquake measurements that show ~30 ΚGals increase from 2002 to 2008. The trend of gravity
increase ended after the Wenchuan earthquake. We analyzed the gravity effects
from ground vertical motions using data from continuous GPS stations
collocated with these absolute gravimetry stations, and surficial and
hydrological processes using local hydrological data. We found that these
effects are much smaller than the observed gravity increase before the
earthquakes, and suggest that the preearthquake gravity increase may be
caused by strain and mass (fluid) transfer in broad seismic source regions.
Further studies are needed to validate such preearthquake gravity changes,
which however are difficult to be resolved from spacebased gravity models. The 63rd
SpeakerF@Prof.
Zhou, Shiyong iSchool
of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, China EProfessorj DateF@18 January 2017@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A504 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Could the abnormal seismicity increase
triggered remotely by great earthquakes be used to judge the regional
earthquake risk? AbstractF@ We
study the possible dynamic triggering effect in Northern China, including
Tangshan area, when the Japan Tohoku M_w 9.0
earthquake happened at March 11th, 2011(In short, Japan Tohoku earthquake).
We use TimeSpace Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model (TimeSpace ETAS
model) as the seismicity statistic model in this research, using Stochastic Declustering method and Gauss Kernel function to get
TimeSpace background seismicity variation image on the target area. Thus this research may find out whether the area with
large coseismic displacement would have sudden abnormal seismicity increase.
As a result, the Japan Tohoku earthquake has little effect on the total and
background seismicity of Tangshan area, which means that the seismic
structure of Tangshan area is fundamentally stable. However, when we did
research on the possible dynamic triggering effect in Southwestern China, we
found that seismicity on some place in Sichuan and Yunnan has sudden
abnormally increased almost at the same time when 2004 Sumatra M_w 9.2 earthquake (In short, 2004 Sumatra earthquake)
happened. That is the statistic phenomenon which shows the existence of
coseismic dynamic triggering. This research helps to find out the exact
position of the high abnormal seismicity area in its time image. Besides,
this time image can also help to detect whether this high gabnormalh
seismicity in the picture is really abnormal or is triggered by certain large
earthquake or not. The 62nd
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Helmstetter, Agnès iInstitut des
Sciences de la Terre, France EResearch
fellowj DateF@26 October 2016@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Repeating icequakes AbstractF@ We
have detected repeating icequakes on three different sites
: an alpine glacier (Argentière, massif du
MontBlanc, France), near the base of the western margin of the Greenland Ice
Sheet, and on a rockglacier (Gugla, Valais,
Switzerland). Repeating icequakes are events with very similar waveforms,
located at the base of a glacier, with quasiperiodic recurrence times of the
order of minutes or hours, and progressive changes in magnitude. The activity
of each cluster is intermittent. Burstlike episodes can last for a few hours
or months, and then disappear. In greenland,
temporal changes of interevent times and magnitudes are correlated with
temperature, because surface meltwater yields an increase in basal water
pressure and in glacier flow velocity. But each cluster reacts differently to
temperature changes, probably because the connectivity to the subglacial
drainage system is different for each asperity. In contrast, we observed no
correlation between temperature and repeating icequakes at Glacier d'Argentière and at Gugla rock
Glacier. However, we observed bursts of repeating icequakes at Gugla triggered by snow falls. We suggest that the snow
weight may have induced a transition between aseismic slip and unstable
stickslip. In addition to repeating basal icequakes, we also detected swarms
of icequakes induced by crevasse opening, probably promoted by meltwater
flow. These swarms of icequakes have very different statistical distributions
in time, space and magnitude compared with repeating icequakes. Their
recurrence times are power law distributed, their magnitudes obey the
GutenbergRichter law, and the size of each cluster is several tens of meters.
These different patterns may help to identify the triggering mechanisms of
earthquake swarms, and to discriminate between fluid flow and aseismic slip. 2
SpeakerF@Dr.
Harte, David iGNS
Science, New Zealand EStatistical
Seismologist and Hazard Modellerj DateF@26 October 2016@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Determining the Uncertainty in
Earthquake Forecasts AbstractF@ Forecasts
based on a selfexciting model, like ETAS, are often produced by simulation.
From these simulations, an empirical probability distribution can be derived
for a forecast in a specified spacetimemagnitude volume. We
will show that the forecast distribution can be characterised
by probability generating functions. This shows how deeply complex the
dependency structure is in such a model. While of theoretical interest, they
remain intractable to me in a practical sense. We
then consider whether the forecast distribution can be approximated, using
less computation than that required for simulation, by a "standard
" multiparameter probability distribution. The multiple parameters gives us the ability to at least fit a distribution with
comparable mean and variance to that of the forecast distribution. One of the
main questions is how to determine the forecast mean, and then given the
mean, the variance. The 61st
SpeakerF@Dr.
Helmstetter, Agnès iInstitut des
Sciences de la Terre, France EResearch
fellowj DateF@11 October 2016@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A504 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Adaptive smoothing of seismicity in
time, space and magnitude for longterm and shortterm earthquake forecasts AbstractF@ We present
new methods for longterm and shortterm earthquake forecasting that employ
space, time, and magnitude kernels to smooth seismicity. These forecasts are
applied to Californian and Japan seismicity and compared with other models.
Our models are purely statistical and rely on very few assumptions about
seismicity. In particular, we do not use OmoriUtsu
law. The magnitude distribution is either assumed to follow the GutenbergRichter law or is
estimated nonparametrically with kernels. We employ adaptive kernels of
variable bandwidths to estimate seismicity in space, time, and magnitude
bins. For longterm forecasts, the longterm rate in each spatial cell is
defined as the median value of the temporal history of the smoothed
seismicity rate in this cell, circumventing the relatively subjective choice
of a declustering algorithm. For shortterm
forecasts, we simply assume persistence, that is, a constant rate over short
time windows. Our longterm forecast performs slightly better than our
previous forecast based on spatially smoothing a declustered
catalog. Our shortterm forecasts are compared with those of the
epidemictype aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Although our new methods are
simpler and require fewer parameters than ETAS, the obtained probability
gains are surprisingly close. Nonetheless, ETAS performs significantly better
in most comparisons,
and the kernel model with a GutenbergRichter law attains
larger gains than the kernel model that nonparametrically estimates the
magnitude distribution. Finally, we show that combining ETAS and kernel model
forecasts, by simply averaging the expected rate in each bin, can provide
greater predictive skill than ETAS or the kernel models can achieve
individually. The 60th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Hasih Pratiwi iSebelas Maret
University, Surakarta, Indonesia E
Lecturerj DateF@30 August 2016@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A504 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@ESTIMATING EARTHQUAKE RISK BY USING
EPIDEMIC TYPE AFTERSHOCK SEQUENCE MODEL APPROACH (Case Study in Java Island,
Indonesia) (Hasih
Pratiwi and Respatiwulan)
AbstractF@ Physical
losses caused by earthquakes are death or casualties and damage to buildings
and areas. Therefore, efforts to reduce the risk of earthquake are very
necessary. Relating to risk or loss generated by earthquake it is of course
does not get out of insurance world. Insurance as nonbank financial
institution can give guarantee or protection as done by banking sector. This
research discusses a method to estimate earthquake risk by using epidemic
type aftershock sequence model. Calculation of earthquake risk can be
determined through a damage probability matrix. The information contained in
the damage probability matrix and in the damage ratios can be combined for
defining the mean damage ratio. Then, based on the estimation of intensity
function in epidemic type aftershock sequence model we can formulate the
expected annual damage ratio, and the existing method for calculating
earthquake risk is modified to obtain earthquake insurance premium rates. We
use earthquakes data in Java Island obtained from U.S. Geological Survey
which consists of time of occurrence, longitude, latitude, magnitude, depth,
and catalogue source. The time span of this research is from January 1, 1973,
to December 31, 2010. Zonation map of earthquake generated in this research
is different from the zonation map SNI 2010 issued by Indonesian Ministry of
Public Works. The difference lies on the distribution of earthquake zone,
especially in regencies and cities with high risk. The earthquake insurance
premium rates for high and medium intensities obtained from this research are
significantly greater than the premium rates issued by PT Reasuransi
Maipark Indonesia. The current premium rates are
relatively small when compared with the rates in Turkey and from this
research. Keywords:
earthquake insurance, intensity function, epidemic type aftershock sequence
model, damage probability matrix. The 59th
SpeakerF@Prof.
Chen, YuhIng iInstitute
of Statistics, National Central University, Taiwan E Distinguished Professorj DateF@19 July 2016@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Statistical evaluation of shortterm
hazard of earthquakes after 1999 M 7.3 ChiChi shock in Taiwan AbstractF@ The
temporalspatial hazard of the earthquakes in a continental region of Taiwan
after the 1999 September 21 MW =7.7 ChiChi shock is investigated. The ReasenbergJones (RJ) model (Reasenberg
and Jones, 1989) that combines the frequencymagnitude distribution
(Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and timedecaying occurrence rate (Utsu et al., 1995) is conventionally employed for
assessing the earthquake hazard after a large shock (Wiemer, 2000). However,
it is found that the b values in the frequencymagnitude distribution of the
earthquakes in the studyregion dramatically
decreased from background values after the ChiChi shock, and then gradually
increased up. The observation of a timedependent distribution of magnitude
motivated us to propose a modified RJ model (MRJ) to assess the earthquake
hazard (Chen et al. 2015). To incorporate the possible impact of previous
large earthquakes on thefollowing ones, a
simplified epidemictype aftershock sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, 1988, Ogata
and Zhunag, 2006) is further considered. A modified
ETAS (METAS) model that combines the simplified ETAS model and the
timedependent distribution of magnitude is then suggested for the hazard
evaluation. The MRJ and METAS models are further separately used to make
oneday forecast of large earthquakes in the study region. To depict the
potential rupture area for future large earthquakes, we also develop the
spacetime MRJ and METAS models and construct the corresponding relative
hazard (RH) maps. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves (Swets,
1988) demonstrate that the RH map based on the MRJ model is as good as the
one based on the METAS model for exploring the spatial hazard of earthquakes
in a short time after the ChiChi shock. The 58th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Zhuang, Jiancang iAssociate Prof. of ISMj DateF@29 June 2016@@@TimeF@16:0016:40 LocationF@Room D313ED314 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics @ISM@Statistical
Mathematics Seminar 2016 TitleF@Replenishing missing data in the
observation record of mark point processes AbstractF@ This
presentation illustrates a fast approach for replenishing missing data in the
record of a temporal point process with time independent marks. The basis of
this method is that, if such a point process is completely observed, it can
be transformed into a homogeneous Poisson process by using a biscale empirical transformation. This approach includes
three key steps: (1) Obtain the transformed process by using the empirical
transformation and find a timemark range that likely contains missing
events; (2) Estimate a new empirical distribution function based on the data
in the timemark range inside which the events are supposed to be completely
observed; (3) Generate events in the missing region. This method is tested on
a synthetic dataset and applied to the data missing problem in the JMA record
of the Kumamoto aftershock sequence, occurring from 2016415 in Japan. The
influence of missing data on the MLE of the ETAS parameters is studied by
comparing the analysis results on the original and replenished datasets. The
results show that the MLEs of the ETAS parameters vary when the ETAS model is
fitted to the recorded catalog with different cutoff magnitudes, while when
the replenished dataset is used the MLE of the ETAS parameters keep stable. The 57th SpeakerF@Dr.
Shcherbakov, Robert iDepartment
of Earth Sciences, Western University(Ontario), Canada E Associate Professor DateF@22 June 2016@@@TimeF@16:4017:20 LocationF@Room D313ED314 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics @ISM@Statistical
Mathematics Seminar 2016 TitleF@Statistics and physics of aftershocks AbstractF@ Aftershocks
are ubiquitous in nature. They are the manifestation of relaxation phenomena
observed in various physical systems. In the studies of seismicity,
aftershock sequences are observed after moderate to large main shocks.
Empirical observations reveal that aftershocks obey powerlaw scaling with
respect to their energies (seismic moments) which in magnitude domain can be
modelled by the GutenbergRichter law. The decay rate of aftershocks above a
certain magnitude is typically inversely proportional to the time since the
main shock and is approximated by the modified Omori law. The largest
aftershocks in a sequence constitute significant hazard and can inflict
additional damage to infrastructure that is already affected by the main
shock. Therefore, the estimation of the magnitude of a possible largest
aftershock in a sequence is of high importance. In this presentation, a
Bayesian predictive distribution and the corresponding confidence intervals
for the magnitude of the largest expected aftershock in a sequence are
derived using the framework of Bayesian analysis and extreme value
statistics. The analysis is applied to several wellknown aftershock
sequences worldwide to construct retrospectively the confidence intervals
for the magnitude of the subsequent largest aftershock by using the
statistics of early aftershocks in the sequences. In order to infer the
physical mechanisms of triggering and time delays responsible for the
occurrence of aftershocks, a nonlinear viscoelastic sliderblock model is
considered. It is shown that nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role
in the triggering of aftershocks. The model reproduces several empirical laws
describing the statistics of aftershocks, which are observed in the studies
of systems with relaxation dynamics, specifically, for earthquakes. The 56th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Strader, Anne iGFZ German
Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany E
Postdoctoral fellowj DateF@7 June 2016@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Evaluation of Current CSEP Testing
Methods: Case Studies for Japan and California AbstractF@ The
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) was developed
to rigorously test earthquake forecasts retrospectively and prospectively
through reproducible, completely transparent experiments within a controlled
environment (Zechar et al., 2010).
Forecasts are individually evaluated using a set of likelihoodbased
consistency tests, which measure the consistency between the number, spatial
and magnitude distribution of the observed and forecasted seismicity during
the testing period (Schorlemmer et al., 2007; Zechar et al., 2010).
Additionally, the classical paired ttest and nonparametric wtest are used
to directly compare two forecasts' performances at target earthquake
locations. These tests rely on a hypothesis testing framework, resulting in a
final decision (to reject or not reject a forecast), rather than quantifying
the model's lackoffit or localized performance. Residual methods are
employed by the CSEP to discern spatial variation in model performance
compared to the observed seismicity distribution and other models, but are
not currently incorporated into decisionmaking processes. To illustrate what
can be learned from commonly utilized current CSEP tests, we present two case
studies. The first is a retrospective evaluation of a rateandstate forecast
for the Japan CSEP testing classes, where spatiotemporal seismicity rate
fluctuations are inverted for Coulomb stress changes. Although the model
underestimates the number of earthquakes following the M9.0 Tohoku mainshock,
it displays positive information gain over baseline ETAS seismicity rates
(Ogata, 2011) within the rupture region. The second forecasting experiment is
a continued prospective evaluation of the timeindependent California
earthquake forecasts tested in the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model
(RELM) experiment, from 20112016. Additionally, we test two models developed
by the United States Geological Survey (USGS): the timedependent Uniform
California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF2) and timeindependent National
Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) models. To reduce bias from expertbased
decision making utilized in current testing methods, we introduce the
framework of a Dynamic Risk Quantification (DRQ) platform, that will be
developed to combine and optimize ensemble forecasts and hazard models using
a datadriven approach, and updated as new data become available. The 55th
1 SpeakerF@Guo,
Yicun iSchool
of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, China E PhD studentj DateF@22 March 2016@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Iterative finiteETAS
model and some results of the histETAS model of the
North China Craton AbstractF@ We
introduce a iterative algorithm to refine the finite
sources of main shocks in the finite ETAS model, in which the weight of
triggering ability for each subfault is its
productivity divided by the whole productivity of the main shock. Also we apply histETAS model to
North China Craton. It turns out that the b value and background seismicity
patterns coincide with the static coulomb stress change induced by historical
big earthquakes, and p value variation in space is in agreement with velocity
structure of the lithosphere under major fault zones. Therefore
we infer the statistical characteristics of seismicity reflect the properties
of medium to some extent, and make some discussion of future earthquake
hazard. 2
SpeakerF@Prof.
Ogata, Yosihiko iEmeritus
Professor of ISM; Project Researcher of Earthquake Research Institute,
University of Tokyoj DateF@22 March 2016@@@TimeF@17:00 18:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@3D spatial models for seismicity
beneath Kanto region AbstractF@ Development
of pointprocess models for the seismicity in 3D space (longitude, latitude
and depth) beneath Kanto area down to 100km depth is more required than for
seismicity in the rest of the world. This is because the three tectonic plates
meet beneath Kanto plain; and interactions among the interplate
and intraplate earthquakes are too complex to make detailed analysis and
forecasts in 2D space that ignores the depths. We
consider the 3D hierarchical spacetime ETAS (epidemictype aftershock
sequence) model. Among the characterizing parameters, the background
seismicity rate \mu and aftershock productivity K are highly sensitive to the
locations, so that these parameters should be locationdependent.
Furthermore, the impact of the 2011 TohokuOki earthquake of M9.0 to the
seismicity beneath the Kanto region has been so large that we need a
spacetime function for representing the amount of the induced seismicity
beneath Kanto by this giant earthquake. Specifically, we adopt the OmoriUtsu function as the effect of induced earthquakes,
started after the occurrence time of the TohokuOki earthquake, where we
assume that the aftershock productivity parameter KM9 of the OmoriUtsu function is also locationdependent. For forecasting
future large earthquakes, we further need to estimate the locationdependent
bvalue of the GutenbergRichter law. The
spatial variations of the characteristic parameters \mu(x,y,z), K(x,y,z) , KM9(x,y,z) and b(x,y,z) of our model
are inverted to visualize the regional changes of the seismic activity. For
this objective, we make 3D Delaunay tessellation of the Kanto volume, where
every earthquake belongs to vertices of a tetrahedron. Each of the above mentioned parameter function is a 3dimensional
piecewise linear function defined by the values at the four Delaunay
tetrahedral vertices. The
estimates of the focal parameter functions are obtained by an optimal
tradeoff between the goodness of fit to the earthquake data and the
smoothness constraints (or roughness penalties) of the variations of
parameter values. Strengths of the constraints of or the penalties to
respective parameter functions can be simultaneously adjusted from the data
by means of an empirical Bayesian method using the Akaikefs Bayesian
information criterion (ABIC). Key
words: ABIC, aftershock productivity, background seismicity rate, bvalues,
Delaunay function, Delaunay tessellation, empirical Bayesian method, OmoriUtsu function for induced seismicity, penalized
loglikelihood. The 54th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Ting iDepartment
of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, New Zealand ELecturerj
DateF@9 February 2016@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Identification of seismic phases using
Markovmodulated marked Hawkes processes AbstractF@ Based
on a temporal Markovmodulated Hawkes process that we developed earlier to
investigate longterm patterns of seismic activity with multiple mainshocks,
we made extensions to this temporal model to include spatial variation of the
seismic activity and the earthquake magnitudes. Our aim is to categorize
spatiotemporal seismic hazards holistically, using the entire earthquake
record in a selected region to identify patterns correlated with subsequent
large earthquakes, rather than the traditional way of selecting individual
foreshockmainshock or mainshockaftershock sequences. I will use several
case studies to illustrate how this model works and discuss about the
problems that we had with the model fitting. The 53rd
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Yin, Fengling iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China EAssistant Professorj DateF@27 January 2016@@@TimeF@13:30 14:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Coulomb stress evolution along the
middle segment of Redriver fault zone over the past
180 Years due to coseismic, postseismic
and interseismic deformation iYin,Fengling, Jiang,
Changsheng and Han, Liboj AbstractF@ The Redriver fault zone, for it being as the boundary of
SichuanYunnan rhombic block and southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau,
and near the Central Yunnan city group, its seismic activity deserves
attention. The Redriver fault zone within Yunnan
has experienced at least 9 earthquakes of M≥6 in recent 180 years. Using
stratified viscoelastic lithospheric model, we calculate the coulomb failure
stress evolution along the redriver fault zone over
the past 180 years due to coseismic, postseismic and interseismic
deformation. By analyzing 25 earthquakes occurred along the Redriver fault zone and ajacent
faults, we find that the middle segment of Redriver
fault zone remains low seismic activity in recent two hundred years. This is
consistent with the observed eseismic gapf as earthquake catalog shows.
Assuming there is no earthquake within about 30 years around the Redriver fault zone, this fseismic gapf may remain due to
postseismic and interseismic
deformation. 2
SpeakerF@Dr.
Taroni, Matteo iIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome,
Italy E
Postdoctoral fellowj DateF@27 January 2016@@@TimeF@14:30 15:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Some recent techniques to improve
earthquake forecasting (Taroni, Matteo, Marzocchi, Warner,
Zechar, Jeremy and Werner, Maximilian) AbstractF@ In
this presentation I will show some recent results regarding the earthquake
forecasting techniques. In particular I will show: i) How
to consider aftershocks and foreshocks in the seismic hazard computation,
with an application to the Italian case. ii)
How to merge different catalogues to obtain a better estimation of the
Tapered GutenbergRichter distribution parameters, with an application to the
global and Italian case. iii)
How to create an ensemble model to improve the performance of the shortterm
earthquake forecasting models, with an application to the New Zealand case. The 52nd SpeakerF@Dr.
Guillas, Serge iDepartment of Statistical Science,
University College London, U.K. E
Readerj DateF@17 November 2015@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Dimension reduction for the
quantification of uncertainties in tsunami and climate models AbstractF@ VOLNA,
a nonlinear shallow water equations solver, produces high resolution
simulations of earthquakegenerated tsunamis. However, the uncertainties in
the bathymetry (from irregularlyspaced observations) have an impact on tsunami
waves. We first employ a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE)
approach to quantify uncertainties in these boundary fields. These
uncertainties are then parametrized to be used as inputs of an emulator of
VOLNA. However, the dimension of these boundary fields is large and must be
reduced. We apply the gradientbased kernel dimension reduction approach (gKDR) by Fukumizu and Leng
(2014) and construct an Gaussian Process emulator on
this reduced input space. We propagate uncertainties in the bathymetry to
obtain an improved probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazard. In a
separate climate application, we employ the Bayesian calibration of complex
computer models using Gaussian Processes, introduced by Kennedy and O'Hagan
(2001), that has proven to be effective in a wide range of applications.
However, the size of the outputs, such as climate models' spherical outputs,
leads to computational challenges in implementing this framework. Covariance
models for data distributed on the sphere also present additional challenges
compared to covariance models for data distributed over an
Euclidean space. To overcome these various challenges, we make use of the
spherical harmonics (SHs) decomposition of the computer model output, and
then apply a Gaussian process assumption to the coefficients in the
decomposition. Furthermore, using the SPDE approach, we can capture
nonstationarity in the spatial process. Hence, we generalize further the
spherical correlation framework by expanding the SPDE parameters used to
quantify the nonstationary behavior in the functional space spanned by the
SHs. We illustrate our findings on several synthetic examples. In particular,
our method can outperform the calibration based on principal components. Finally we show that our technique has the potential to
calibrate the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The 51st
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Gerstenberger, Matthew iGNS
Science, New Zealand ERisk and Engineering
Team Leader, Senior Seismologistj
DateF@1 September 2015@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@The New Zealand National Seismic
Hazard Model: Rethinking PSHA AbstractF@ We
are currently revising the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. In this
revision we are exploring some of the fundamental assumptions of the model
and investigating how uncertainties in earthquake source and ground motion
estimation propagate through to the end uses of the model. Uncertainties
related to the source modelling that come from a paucity of data and from
different methods that can be used to model the seismic sources are currently
not fully quantified in the way we model seismic hazard. Additionally,
seismic sources are generally assumed to be a stationary Poisson process and
earthquake clustering is ignored. Including these uncertainties in the way
risk is modelled based on the outputs of the National Seismic Hazard Model
will likely lead to more robust estimates of risk for use by industry and in
the development of design standards. Notice:
This email and any attachments are confidential. If received in error please
destroy and immediately notify us. Do not copy or disclose the contents. 2
SpeakerF@Dr.
Chen, Shi iInstitute
of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China EAssociate Professorj DateF@1 September 2015@@@TimeF@17:0018:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@A study on the regional gravity
changes before large earthquakes from the statistical perspectives AbstractF@ The
repeated gravity surveys, also called mobile gravity measurements, have been
carried out for decades in the Chinese mainland. Significant gravity changes
have been detected before some cases of great earthquakes, such as the 1976
Tangshan Ms7.8 Earthquake, 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, etc. The main aim
of the repeated gravity surveys is to monitor the geophysical field
variations in some major seismic hazard zones. By this sort of insitu
gravimetric network, the yearly changes of regional gravity can be obtained.
Through the Molchan Error Diagram tests, we found that observed gravity
changes are statistically correlated to the occurrence of future large
earthquakes, i.e., the gravity changes are more powerful than a seismicity
rate model in forecasting large earthquakes. These results imply that gravity
changes before earthquake include precursory information of future large
earthquakes. Key
words: Gravity changes, Earthquake prediction, Molchan error diagram,
Repeated gravity measurement, Chinese mainland. The 50th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Kagan, Yan Y. iDepartment
of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) E Researcherj DateF@4 August 2015@@@TimeF@16:0018:00 LocationF@Room D208 (Conference room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Statistics of earthquake focal
mechanisms AbstractF@ I. Doublecouple
earthquake source: symmetry and rotation We
analyze earthquake focal mechanisms and their forecast both analytically and
statistically. This problem is complex because source mechanisms are
tensorvalued variables, thus their analysis requires applying sophisticated
mathematical and statistical tools, many of which are not yet fully
developed. We describe general and statistical properties of the seismic
moment tensor, in particular, its most important form  the doublecouple
(DC) mechanism. We establish a method for the analysis of a DC source, based
on the quaternion technique, and then apply quaternions for the statistical
analysis of earthquake catalogs. The important property of the focal
mechanism is its symmetry. We describe the classification of the mechanism
symmetry and the dependence of the DC orientation on its symmetry. Four
rotations exist in a general case of a DC with the nodalplane ambiguity,
there are two transformations if the fault plane is known, and there is one
rotation if the sides of the fault plane are known. A statistical analysis of
symmetrical objects has long been the subject of crystallographic texture
investigations. We describe the application of crystallographic methods to
focal mechanism analysis and consider theoretical statistical distributions
appropriate for the DC orientation approximation. Uniform random rotation
distributions for various DC sources are discussed, as well as two
nonuniform distributions: the rotational Cauchy and von MisesFisher. We discuss
how the parameters of these rotations can be estimated by a statistical
analysis of earthquake source properties in global seismicity using the GCMT
catalog. We also show how earthquake focal mechanism orientations can be
displayed on the Rodrigues vector space. II.
Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts In
the focal mechanism forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors
within a 1000 km radius is calculated and the P and Taxes for the predicted
focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum (Kagan and Jackson
1994, JGR). Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the
forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle
shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the
prediction. Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements,
particularly a desire to extend the previous forecast to polar and nearpolar
regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism
calculation on a spherical surface. In a modified program focal mechanisms
have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. A
comparison with the old 75S75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the
forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the
forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, closer
to the 75 latitude degree the difference in the
rotation angle is large (around a factor 1.5 in some places). The Gammaindex
was calculated for the average focal mechanism moment. A nonzero Index
indicates that earthquake focal mechanisms around the forecast point have
different orientations. Thus deformation complexity
displays itself both in the average rotation angle and in the Index. However,
sometimes the rotation angle is close to zero, whereas the Index is large,
testifying to a large CLVD presence. Both new 0.5x0.5 and 0.1x0.1 degree forecasts are posted at
http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html III.
Evaluating focal mechanisms forecast skill We
discuss the ways to test the focal mechanism forecast efficiency. We start
with several verification methods, first based on adhoc, empirical
assumptions. However their performance is
questionable. In the new work we apply a conventional likelihood method to
measure the skill of a forecast. The advantage of such an approach is that an
earthquake rate prediction can be adequately combined with a focal mechanism
forecast, if both are based on the likelihood scores. This results in a general
forecast optimization. To calculate the likelihood score we need to compare
actual forecasts or occurrences of predicted events with the null hypothesis
that the mechanism's 3D orientation is random. To better understand the
resulting complexities we calculate the information
(likelihood) score for two rotational distributions (Cauchy and von
MisesFisher), which are used to approximate earthquake source orientation
patterns. We then calculate the likelihood score for earthquake source
forecasts and for their validation by future seismicity data. Several issues
need to be explored when analyzing observational results: their dependence on
the forecast and data resolution, internal dependence of scores on the
forecasted angle, and random variability of likelihood scores. We propose a
preliminary solution to these complex problems, as these issues need to be
explored by a more extensive theoretical and statistical analysis. IV.
Future focal mechanisms studies 1.
Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts, rigorous likelihood methods for
evaluating forecast skill. 2.
Likelihood analysis of GCMT catalog, including focal mechanisms. 3.
Focal mechanism clustering. 4.
Collapsing focal mechanism patterns. 5. Influence
of Earth surface on focal mechanisms interaction
(Morawiec,Ch8). 6.
Integrating Cauchy distribution on Rodrigues space, Morawiec, pp.116119. 7.
Calculating Cauchy and von MisesFisher distributions for 120 degrees
rotation limit. 8.
Investigating the signchange symmetry of a DC earthquake source. 9.
Studies of statistics of earthquake focal mechanisms in the Rodrigues space. 10.
Rotationtranslation distribution of doublecouples as different from
arbitrary symmetric deviatoric secondrank tensor. The 49th
SpeakerF@Prof.
Künsch, Hans R. iDepartment of Mathematics, ETH Zurich,
Switzerland E Emeritus
Professorj DateF@7 April 2015@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Data assimilation in seismology ? AbstractF@ The
accuracy of weather forecasts has increased substantially over the past
decades. This is due to at least three factors: The increase in computing
power which allows a higher accuracy in solving the equations of the
underlying physical model, a denser set of observations of the state of the
atmosphere and better methods for data assimilation, that is the use of these
observations to adjust the initial conditions of the model sequentially. In
order to represent the uncertainty in assimilation and forecasting, ensembles
are used whose members represent different states of the atmosphere that are
compatible with the observations and the physical dynamics. Such ensemble
methods should be viewed as Monte Carlo methods which provide the link to
statistics. Recently
there has been interest in using these data assimilation tools also in
seismology in order to improve forecasts and quantify their uncertainty. In
this talk I will discuss some of the attempts in this direction. Time
permitting, I will also present some new ideas for ensemble data
assimilation. The 48th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Ishibe, Takeo iEarthquake Research Institute, The
University of Tokyo E Project
Researcherj DateF@24 February 2015@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Overview of Seismicity Changes in
Inland Japan after the 2011 TohokuOki Earthquake and Its Interpretation AbstractF@ In
this presentation, I overview the widespread changes in seismicity rate and
distribution of focal mechanism after the TohokuOki earthquake (Mw9.0) and
summarize the possible contributing factors. In Tohoku, westward from the
TohokuOki source, significant increases in seismicity rate were observed in
N. and S. Akita, SW off Oga peninsula, and Yamagata/Fukushima and
Ibaraki/Fukushima boundary regions as well as other surrounding areas. On the
other hand, aftershock activities in the source regions of recent large
earthquakes such as the 2008 IwateMiyagi earthquake have been suppressed. In
Kanto, southwest of the TohokuOki source, interplate
earthquakes were typically activated, while beltlike seismicity along the
western edge of slabslab contact zone and shallow earthquakes in some areas
were also activated. The
most plausible factor is the static changes in the Coulomb stress, which
seems to be valid for retrospectively forecasting the changes in seismicity
on some level, while some activated seismicity showed clear counterevidence.
Remotely triggered local events, whose origin times are well coincided with
the arrivals of mainshock seismic waves, suggest that dynamic stress changes
also contribute. Some swarmlike activities, showing temporal expansion of
the focal area which is attributed to fluid diffusion, suggest that changes
in pore fluid pressure should be another possible factor. The contribution of
indirectly triggered earthquakes might be important in some regions because
stress changes imparted by neighboring indirect aftershocks could be
comparable with those from a distant mainshock. Postseisimc
slip and viscoelastic effect would play an important role for longterm
hazard assessments. The 47th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Segou, Margaret iNational
Observatory of Athens (Greece) E
Researcherj DateF@10 February 2015@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@4F Lounge, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@The Future of Earthquake
Predictability AbstractF@ The last
decade dense seismological networks around the world provide the opportunity
to study more aftershock sequences in seismically active areas across the
world such as California (San Andreas Fault), Japan, New Zealand (Canterbury
Fault, Christchurch) and continental rift systems (Corinth Gulf, Greece). The
importance behind that is evident; the 2008 M7.9 Sichuan event continues
having catastrophic aftershocks (2013 Lushan M6.6) after five years. The
above provide the necessary motivation for geophysicists to develop short and
longterm earthquake forecasts for providing to scientists and the public
authoritative information on seismic hazard and answer ultimately the
question When the next big earthquake will occur. Static and dynamic
triggering are often described as the two primary mechanisms for earthquake
clustering in time and space. Recent studies have provided evidence that
physicsbased earthquake forecast models, combining fault aging laws and the
static stress triggering hypothesis, can accurately predict (80%) transient
seismicity rates. Static triggering plays an important role in spatial
clustering at distances 23 rupture lengths away from the seismic source
whereas dynamic triggering studies usually focus on larger distances
(>1000 km). But how dependent are our calculations on our incomplete
knowledge of the ambient stress of a region? What are the implications behind
the time dependent fault behavior? The last two questions are the key for
reducing the uncertainties of physical forecast models. Quite often the
development of such quantitative and testable models is followed by extensive
statistical performance evaluation, which is critical for understanding their
merits and pitfalls. In
this seminar I focus on recent development on physicsbased earthquake models
using worldwide examples and how they compare with statistical models.
Furthermore, I discuss how we can reduce their uncertainties and sketch the
future of our scientific predictability. Is it possible to hope on higher
information gains in the near future? and, How these
forecast models could be most effective in Japan? The 46th
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Kumazawa, Takao iProject Researcher of ISMj DateF@27 January 2015@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Predicting Offshore Swarm Rate by
Volumetric Strain Changes in Izu Peninsula, Japan AbstractF@ The
eastern offshore of Izu peninsula is one of the well known
volcanic active regions in Japan, where magma intrusions have been observed
several times since 1980s monitored by strainmeters located nearby. Major
swarm activities have been synchronously associated with coseismic
and preseismic significant sizes of volumetric
strain changes (Earthquake Research Committee, 2010). We investigated the background
seismicity changes during these earthquake swarms using the nonstationary
ETAS model (Kumazawa and Ogata, 2013, 2014), and
have found the followings. The volumetric strain change data, modified by
removing the effect of earth tides and precipitation as well as removing coseismic jumps, have much higher crosscorrelations to
the background rates of the ETAS model than to the whole seismicity rate
change of the ETAS. Furthermore the strain changes
precede the background seismicity by lag of about half a day. This relation
suggests an enhanced prediction of earthquakes in this region using
volumetric strain measurements. Thus we propose an
extended ETAS model where the background seismicity rate is predicted by the
time series of preceding volumetric strain changes. Our numerical results for
Izu region show consistent outcomes throughout the major swarms. 2
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Ting iDepartment
of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago, New Zealand ELecturerj
DateF@27 January 2015@@@TimeF@16:3017:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Marked point process modeling with
missing data in volcanic eruption records AbstractF@ Despite
ongoing efforts to compile new data, eruption records, particularly those of
earlier time periods, are pervasively incomplete. The probability of missing
an ancient eruption is much higher than a recent eruption. We consider
modeling both the times and sizes of the eruptions using a marked point
process. We propose to model the marks (the sizes of the events) as having a
timevarying distribution which takes the higher proportion of missing
smaller events in earlier records into consideration. We then estimate the
proportion of detected events over time based on the assumption that the most
recent record is complete and that the record of eruptions with the largest
size in the considered catalog is complete. With this information, we can
then estimate the true intensity of volcanic eruptions. The 45th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Schehr, Grégory iLaboratoire de
Physique Théorique et Modèles
Statistiques, OrsayUniversity ParisSud E CNRSResearcherj DateF@14 October 2014@@@TimeF@11:0012:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Exact Statistics of the Gap and Time
Interval Between the First Two Maxima of Random Walks and Lévy Flights AbstractF (PDF)
The 44th
1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Zhou, Shiyong iSchool
of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, China EProfessor; Visiting Professor of ISM,
2014j DateF@5 August 2014@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Seismicity simulation in Western
Sichuan of China based on the fault interactions and its implication on the
estimation of the regional earthquake risk AbstractF@ Seismicity
over 10000 years in Western Sichuan of China has been simulated based on the
mechanical synthetic seismicity model we developed. According to the analysis
of the simulated synthetic seismic catalogue , the
occurrence of strong earthquakes with Ms ≥710 in the
whole region of Western Sichuan is rather random , very close to the Poisson
process with seismic rate 010454Pyear , which means it is reasonable to
estimate the regional earthquake risk with Poisson model in Western Sichuan.
However, the occurrence of strong earthquakes with Ms
≥710 on the individual faults of Western Sichuan is far from Poisson process
and could be predicted with a time2dependent prediction model. The fault
interaction matrices and earthquake transfer possibility matrices among the
faults in Western Sichuan have been calculated based on the analysis of the
simulated synthetic catalogues. We have also calculated the static change in
Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on one fault induced by a strong earthquake on
another fault in Western Sichuan to discuss the physical implications of the
earthquake transfer possibility matrices inferred from the synthetic
catalogue. Keywords:
Simulation of earthquake generation , Poisson model
, Coulomb stress , Seismic hazard 2
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Dun iEarthquake
Research Institute, University of Tokyo E
JSPS Postdoctoralj DateF@5 August 2014@@@TimeF@17:0018:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Rupture speeds for recent large
earthquakes AbstractF@ Studying
the rupture speeds of earthquakes is of broad interesting for earthquake
research because it has a large effect on the strong nearfield shaking that
causes damage during earthquakes. Also rupture speed is a key observation for
understanding the controlling stresses and friction during an earthquake, yet
the speed and its variations are usually difficult to determine. Using only
farfield seismic waveforms, which is the only data available for many large
earthquakes, there are problems for estimating the rupture speed with
standard waveform inversions, due to tradeoff between the rupture speed and
the slip location. Here
we applied a back projection method to estimate the rupture speeds of Mw ≥
7.5 strikeslip earthquakes since 2001 which could be analyzed using Hinet
in Japan. We found that all events had very fast average rupture speeds of
3.06.0 km/s, which are near or greater than the local shear wave velocity (supershear). These values are faster than for thrust and
normal faulting earthquakes that generally rupture with speeds of 1.03.0
km/s. Considering the depthdependent shearwave velocity, the average
propagation speeds for all of the strikeslip events are closer to or greater
than the shear wave velocity. For large strikeslip events, transition from subshear to supershear usually
occurs within distances of 15 to 30 km from the initiation, which is probably
the reason for the scarcity of observed supershear
earthquakes for smaller magnitudes. Earthquakes
with supershear ruptures can cause more damage than
events with subshear ruptures because of the
concentration of energy in the forward direction of the rupture. Numerical
modeling shows strong focusing and other effects of energy at the rupture
front which can intensify the ground motions. A recent example is the April
13, 2010 Qinghai, China earthquake (Mw 6.9), where a moderatesize event
caused extensive damage in the Yushu region at the southeastern end of the
fault. Careful evaluation of long and straight strikeslip faults should be
emphasized for predicting strong ground motions due to supershear
rupture. The 43rd
SpeakerF@Dr.
Aiken, Chastity iGeorgia
Institute of Technology, U.S.A. E
National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow, ARCS Scholarj
DateF@8 July 2014@@@TimeF@16:0018:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Triggered Seismic Activity in
Geothermal Regions and on StrikeSlip Faults AbstractF@ Dynamic
stresses caused by large earthquakes are capable of triggering a wide range
of seismic/aseismic responses at remote distances. These responses include
instantaneously triggered microearthquakes, deep tectonic tremor, earthquake
swarms, slowslip events, and nearsurface icequakes. Systematic studies of these triggered
phenomena not only help us to understand how large earthquakes affect
seismic/aseismic processes at remote distances but also help improve our understanding
of the necessary physical conditions responsible for the generation of
seismic activity. In this talk I
present two recent studies: (1) a comparison of triggered
microearthquakes in three geothermal regions of California and (2) a
comparison of triggered tremor on four strikeslip faults in the Western
Hemisphere. Triggered seismic
activity is characterized as being triggered by the surface waves of large,
distant earthquakes. Triggered
earthquakes in geothermal regions are generally small magnitude (M<4) and
have distinct P and S waves, whereas triggered tremor is a lowamplitude,
emergent signal with no distinct P wave.
After identifying the large earthquakes that trigger seismic activity,
we analyze and compare the peak ground velocities, seismic wave incidence
angles, amplitude spectra of all distant earthquakes we examined, as well as
the background activity in each region to determine the factors that promote
triggering in geothermal regions and on strikeslip faults. The 42nd
SpeakerF@Dr.
Aranha, Claus iGraduate
School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba E Assistant Professorj
DateF@27 May 2014@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Using Evolutionary Algorithms to
optimize earthquake risk models: Early Ideas AbstractF@ Evolutionary
Algorithms are a class of metaheuristics that use genetic principles to
sample good solutions from a search space. They have shown great promise in a
wide variety of optimization problems, specially in
problem domains where the search space is multi modal and/or noncontinuous.
However, evolutionary algorithms have not yet seen a lot of use in the
optimization of statistical models for earthquake forecasting. Our goal is to
explore this combination. In
this talk, we will (briefly) explain what evolutionary algorithms are, and
then proceed to outline our early proposals and results regarding their use
for the generation of an RELM based earthquake forecast model. The 41st
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, MinZhen iProject Researcher
of ISMj DateF@4 March 2014@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Distributions on Torus, Cylinder and
Disc iWang, MinZhen and Shimizu, Kunioj AbstractF@ Statistics
for data which include angular observations is known as directional
statistics. Bivariate circular data such as wind directions measured at two
points in time are modeled by using bivariate circular distributions or
distributions on the torus. Likewise circularlinear data are modeled by
using distributions on the cylinder and disc. We propose some extensions of
distributions on the torus, cylinder and disc in the framework of directional
statistics.@A new
circular distribution (Wang and Shimizu, 2012) is also introduced, which is
obtained by applying the Mӧbius transformation
to a univariate cardioid random variable. The distribution function,
trigonometric moments, and conditions for unimodality and symmetry are
studied. Kato and Jones (2010) study a family of distributions which is
obtained by applying the Mӧbius
transformation to a von Mises random variable, and we discuss the
relationship between our model and the KatoJones model. The bivariate
circular case (Wang and Shimizu, 2012) which is generated from a
circularcircular structural model linked with Mӧbius
transformation or a method of trivariate reduction.
The joint probability density function, trigonometric moments and
circularcircular correlation coefficient are explicitly expressed. An
illustration is given for wind direction data at 6 a.m. and noon as an
application of the bivariate cardioid distribution. The distributions on the
cylinder we proposed is generated from a combination of von Mises and
transformed Kumaraswamy distributions. It is an extension of the Johnson and
Wehrly (1978) model. The marginal and conditional
distributions of the proposed distribution are given. A distribution using
the method of generating a cylindrical distribution with specified marginals
is also proposed. We generate skew or asymmetric distributions on the disc by
using the Mӧbius
transformation and modified Mӧbius
transformations as extensions of the Mӧbius
distribution proposed by Jones (2004). The new distributions called the
modified Mӧbius
distributions have six parameters. They can be reduced to the Mӧbius and
uniform distributions as special cases, but many members of the family are
skew distributions for both the linear and the angular random variables. Some
properties such as the joint probability and marginal density functions of
the proposed distributions are obtained. References:
[1] Johnson, R.
A. and Wehrly, T. E. (1978). Some angularlinear distributions and related
regression models. Journal of the
American Statistical Association, 73, 602–606. [2]
Jones, M. C. (2004). The Mӧbius
distribution on the disc. Annals of the
Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 56, 733–742. [3] Kato, S. and
Jones, M. C. (2010). A family of distributions on the circle with links to,
and applications arising from, Mӧbius
transformation. Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 105, 249–262. [4]
Wang, M.Z. and Shimizu, K. (2012). On applying Mӧbius
transformation to cardioid random variables. Statistical Methodology, 9, 604–614. 2 SpeakerF@Dr.
Llenos, Andrea L. iUS Geological Survey, Earthquake
Science Center E
Postdoctoralj DateF@4 March 2014@@@TimeF@16:30 17:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Statistical modeling and
identification of potentially induced seismicity rate changes AbstractF@ iTBAj The 40th
1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Varini, Elisa iInstitute
of Applied Mathematics and Information Technology, National Research Council
(IMATICNR), Italy E DateF@18 February 2014@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Bayesian estimation of doubly
stochastic Poisson processes: a particle filtering approach AbstractF@ iTBAj 2 SpeakerF@Dr.
Harte, David iGNS
Science, New Zealand EStatistical
Seismologist and Hazard Modellerj DateF@18 February 2014@@@TimeF@16:30 17:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Stochastic Earthquake Models: Ways to
Improve and Insights into the Physical Process AbstractF@ 1. Bayesian estimation of doubly
stochastic Poisson processes: a particle filtering approach We
aim to explore the hypothesis that the earthquakes of a seismic region occur
under different physical conditions, corresponding to as many seismicity
phases characterized by different occurrence rates. This
hypothesis can be modeled by doubly stochastic Poisson processes in which the
observed process of the occurrence times of the earthquakes is a point
process whose conditional intensity function is assumed to be dependent on
both the past history and the current hidden state. By
assuming some of the possible choices for the observed point process and the
hidden state process, a Bayesian analysis is carried out in which the
likelihood function is approximated by the particle filtering method. 2. Stochastic Earthquake Models: Ways to
Improve and Insights into the Physical Process We
present a version of the ETAS model where the offspring rates vary both
spatially and temporally. This is in response to deficiencies discussed in
[1]. This is achieved by distinguishing between those spacetime volumes
where the interpoint spacetime distances are small, and those where they are
considerably larger. In the process of modifying a stochastic earthquake
model, one needs to justify assumptions made, and these in turn raise
questions about the nature of the underlying physical process. We will use
this version of the ETAS model as the basis for our discussion, and by focussing on aspects where the model does not perform so
well, attempt to find physical explanations for such lack of fit. Some
possible discussion points are as follows. What
is the nature of the so called background process in
the ETAS model? Is it simply a temporal boundary (t=0) correction or does it
represent an additional tectonic process not described by the aftershock
component? Or are these two alternatives on completely different time scales? An
epidemic (the basic analogy underpinning the ETAS model), or a living
organism, can evolve by reproducing offspring that are slightly different to
that of their parents  randomness or gene mutation. Certain
"modified" individuals will be able to adapt to the environment
better and tend to survive over others. In the ETAS context, a lower value of
$\alpha$ will cause more "generations" in the aftershock sequence.
This allows for a richer and more complex evolution of the process, both
spatially and temporally. Alternatively, if alpha is large, then more of the
aftershocks are direct offspring of the mainshock. In the epidemic context,
this implies that the mainshock contains much more of the "DNA"
which governs the evolution of the overall sequence. What
is the relationship between fractal dimension and clustering? Does the
fractal dimension provide a better discrimination between those spacetime
volumes with higher offspring rates and the others? If so, does the fractal
dimension provide a more obvious physical description of the difference
between these high rate volumes and the lower rate
volumes, and hence a suggestive physical explanation? [1]
Harte, D.S. (2013). Bias in Fitting the ETAS Model: A Case Study Based on New
Zealand Seismicity. Geophys. J. Int. 192(1),
390412. The 39th
1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Matsufura, Mitsuhiro iVisiting Researcher of ISMj DateF@14 January 2014@@@TimeF@13:00 14:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Inversion of GPS Data using ABIC AbstractF@ To
monitor crustal movements of the Japanese Islands, a nationwide dense GPS
network (GEONET) has been operated by Geographical Survey Institute of Japan
(now Geospatial Information Authority of Japan) since 1996. We developed an
inversion method to estimate unbiased interseismic
slipdeficit rates at plate interfaces from GPS displacement rate (velocity)
data with an elastic dislocation model. In this method, first, we subtract
theoretical surface velocities due to known steady relative plate motion from
the observed GPS data, and presume the residuals to be caused by slip deficit
at plate interfaces. However, the observed GPS data always include rigid
block translation and rotation, which cannot be explained by the elastic
dislocation model. We treated the rigid block translation and rotation as
systematic errors in the analysis, and removed them by transforming the
velocity data into the average strain rates of triangle elements composed of
adjacent GPS stations. By this transformation, original information about
intrinsic deformation is preserved. Applying a general inversion formula
using ABIC to the GPS strain data, we can obtain unbiased slipdeficit rate
distribution. We demonstrate the applicability of the GPS strain data
inversion method through the analyses of coseismic
and interseismic GPS data in the Japan region,
where the North American, Pacific, Philippine Sea, and Eurasian plates are
interacting with each other in a complicated way. 2 SpeakerF@Prof.
Zhou, Shiyong iSchool of Earth and Space Sciences,
Peking University, China EProfessorj DateF@14 January 2014@@@TimeF@14:10 15:10 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Detecting the regional tectonic stress
variations in background seismicity data through statistical earthquake
modeling
iYajun Peng, Shiyong Zhou, Jiancang Zhuang
and Jia Shij AbstractF@ Large
earthquakes could perturb the stress field in regions even thousands of kilometers
away, leading to abrupt changes in background seismicity. We have developed a
probability based approach, based on the
epidemictype aftershock sequence model and the stochastic declustering method, to invert the smoothed temporal
variation of background seismicity rate and to extract useful physical
signals from complex seismicity patterns. An iterative algorithm is
constructed to estimate the background seismicity simultaneously by using a
combination of maximum likelihood estimate and weighted variable kernel
estimate. We verify this approach through simulations and confirm that it can
sensitively recover the onset of dynamic triggering. The
algorithm is applied to an earthquake catalog in Yunnan Province, China, and
successfully identifies a rapid increment of background seismicity rate
following the occurrence of the 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake, whereas no
remote triggering effect is detected following the occurrence of the 2005
Sumatra Mw 8.7 earthquake. This phenomenon agrees with GPS observations. It
is found that the elevated seismic activity within 15 d after the Sumatra
earthquake is mostly composed by shallow events, and direct triggering
relationship is well established. We
also studied the possible dynamic triggering effect in Northern China,
including Tangshan area, when the Japan Tohoku Mw 9.0 earthquake happened at
March 11th, 2011 and found out whether the area with large coseismic
displacement would have sudden abnormal seismicity increase. As a result, the
Japan Tohoku earthquake has little effect on the total and background
seismicity of Tangshan area, which means that the seismic structure of
Tangshan area is fundamentally stable. 3 SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Ting iUniversity
of Otago, New Zealand ELecturerj DateF@14 January 2014@@@TimeF@15:30 16:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Estimating the likelihood of volcanic
eruptions with incomplete eruption record AbstractF@ iTBAj
4 SpeakerF@Prof.
Ogata, Yosihiko iEmeritus
Professor of ISM; Visiting Professor of Institute of Industrial Science,
University of Tokyoj DateF@14 January 2014@@@TimeF@16:40 17:40 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Foreshocks and shortterm forecasting:
comparisons between in real seismicity and synthetic catalogs
iYosihiko Ogata and
Koichi Katsuraj AbstractF@ Some
statistical characteristics of foreshocks in the JMA earthquake catalog are
quantitatively different from those in the catalogs simulated by the
spacetime epidemictype aftershock sequence (ETAS) model associated with the
GutenbergRichter (GR) law. Also, the information gain of a foreshock
probability forecasting in the real seismicity is significantly large in comparison
with in synthetic catalogs. The 38th
SpeakerF@Prof.
Huang, Qinghua iDepartment
of Geophysics, Peking University, China EProfessorj
DateF@12 November 2013@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Seismicity changes revealed by the
RegionTimeLength (RTL) algorithm AbstractF@ The
RegionTimeLength (RTL) algorithm, which takes into account the epicenter,
time, and magnitude of earthquakes, is an effective technique in detecting
seismicity changes, especially the seismic quiescence. Based on the RTL
algorithm and the Qparameter (an average RTL parameter over a certain time
window), we can quantify the spatiotemporal
characteristics of seismicity changes. In order to reduce the possible
ambiguity due to the selection of model parameters in the RTL algorithm, we
proposed an improved technique of searching for the optimal model parameters.
The applications of the RTL algorithm in various tectonic regions indicated
that seismic quiescence anomalies generally started a few years prior to the
occurrence of the mainshock. The linear dimension of the seismic quiescence
zone could be a few to several times of the rupture dimension of the
mainshock. The significance of the seismic quiescence anomalies revealed by
the RTL algorithm was supported by the close investigations of model
parameter effects and the stochastic test based on randomized earthquake
catalogs. The 37th
SpeakerF@Herrmann,
Marcus iETH
Zurich, Swiss Seismological Servise E PHD studentj
DateF@27 August 2013@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Forecasting Losses Caused by a M6.6
Scenario Earthquake Sequence in Basel, Switzerland AbstractF@ When
people and their environment are not properly prepared, earthquakes pose a
serious threat. Recently, the SEISMO12 earthquake scenario exercise
simulated the repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake. This gave officials,
organizations, and the general public an idea of what may be expected in case
of a M6.6 earthquake. The present work relates to the scenario and
contributes to loss reduction by expressing the potential impact through
seismic risk. Reducing the shortterm seismic risk requires the evacuation of
vulnerable buildings. However, one cannot always evacuate in times of an
ongoing seismic sequence. Based on information of the continuous seismicity,
probabilistic forecasts show increasing benefit for shortterm defense
against earthquakes. Forecast probabilities subsequently allow timevarying
seismic hazard calculation. Only another combination with timeinvariant loss
estimation permits the assessment of shortterm seismic risk. Seismic risk
delivers a more direct expression of the socioeconomic impact than seismic
hazard, but one must characterize vulnerability and exposure to estimate
risk. Risk assessment brings together a variety of data, models and
assumptions. Based on the specific earthquake scenario, I perform a
probabilistic forecast of human losses. Seismologists may not be responsible
for communicating shortterm risk information to the public, but they have to
support decisionmakers to take worthwhile actions that may save lives.
However, the lowprobability environment and the complexity of involved
processes challenge decisionmakers. A final costbenefit analysis
constitutes greater benefit than pure statistical approaches by providing
objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive
information in the simplest reasonable form, I propose a warning approach 
in terms of alarm levels  which allows one to explore worthwhile
mitigation actions for each district of the Basel region. The 36th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Enescu, Bogdan iTsukuba
University, Japan E Associate
Professorj DateF@23 July 2013@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D313 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Dynamic triggering of earthquakes in
Japan due to the 2011 Tohokuoki earthquake: some
observations, stress modeling and interpretation AbstractF@ iTBAj The 35th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Marzocchi, Warner iIstituto Nazionale
di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Rome, Italy E Chief
scientistj DateF@3 July 2013@@@TimeF@16:0016:40 LocationF@Room D313 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Operational Earthquake Forecasting and
Decision Making AbstractF@ Traditionally,
seismic risk reduction is achieved only through a sound earthquake building
code. Nonetheless, some recent seismic disasters have highlighted the need
for enlarging the range of risk mitigation actions beyond that. In
particular, the occurrence of a seismic sequence may increase the weekly
probability of a large shock by orders of magnitude, although the absolute
probability usually remains below 1/100. Here, we summarize the state of the
art in shortterm earthquake forecasting and discuss how these forecasts may
be used to mitigate seismic risk in this time horizon. Because of the low
probabilities and high false alarm rates of possible advisories, mandatory
mitigation actions would not be an effective practical strategy to reduce
risk. Alternatively, we propose some low cost
strategies, such as increasing vigilance and preparedness, for using
probabilistic forecasting to mitigate seismic risk. These are based on the
enudgingf principle of devolving decisionmaking down from civic authorities
to the individual level. The 34th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Chen, Xiaowei iScripps
Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego E PostDoctoral Fellowj
DateF@16 April 2013@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Aspects of earthquake triggering and
seismicity clustering AbstractF@ Earthquakes
strongly cluster in space and time, driven both by earthquaketoearthquake
triggering and underlying physical processes, such as tectonic stress loading,
increased pore pressure, etc. To
understand the general characteristics of earthquake clustering from a large
dataset of earthquakes, I analyze seismicity in southern California. I use a
highresolution earthquake catalog based on waveform crosscorrelation to
study the spatialtemporal distribution of earthquakes. Parameters based on
event location, magnitude and occurrence time are computed for isolated
seismicity clusters. Spatial migration behavior is modeled using a
weightedL1norm method. Aftershocklike event clusters do not exhibit
significant spatial migration compared with earthquake swarms. Two triggering
processes are considered for swarms: slow slip and fluid diffusion, which are
distinguished based on a statistical analysis of event migration. The results
suggest fluidinduced seismicity is found across southern California,
particularly within geothermal areas. In the Salton Sea geothermal field
(SSGF), a correlation between seismicity and fluid injection activities is
seen. Spatialtemporal variations of earthquake stress drops are investigated
in different regions, and a distancedependence of stress drop from the
injection source is found in the SSGF, suggesting the influence of increased
pore pressure. Temporal variation of stress drops within mainshock source
regions shows that foreshocks and earthquake swarms have lower stress drops
than background seismicity and aftershocks. These results, combined with the
spatial migration observed for some large foreshock sequences, suggests an aseismic
transient process is likely involved in foreshock triggering. The 33rd
SpeakerF@Dr.
Han, Peng iChiba
University, Japan EPh.D.
Studentj DateF@14 February 2013@@@TimeF@16:0018:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Investigation of ULF seismomagnetic phenomena in Kanto, Japan during 2000 –
2010 AbstractF@ Earthquakes
are one the most destructive natural hazards, causing huge damages and high casualties.
Especially during the past decade, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many
countries. Thus, effective earthquake forecasting is important and urgent.
Since the end of last century, ULF seismomagnetic
phenomena have been intensively studied. Recently, it has been considered a
promising candidate for shortterm earthquake prediction as a number of case
studies have been reported. However, scientists also found that
sometimes a sizeable earthquake happened without magnetic anomalies and
sometimes magnetic anomalies followed by no earthquakes. Thus, the relation
between magnetic anomalies and seismicity has been queried. Moreover, there
are two essential problems puzzling the researchers: (1) what is the exact
waveform of electromagnetic signals associated with earthquakes or
underground activities; (2) how are the signals generated. These two
questions have not yet been answered clearly and fully. There are still
active debates in the geophysical community on the seismoelectromagnetic
phenomena. In order to verify, clarify, and evaluate the ULF seismomagnetic phenomena, longterm continuous
monitoring of ULF magnetic field in a seismically active area is required.
Therefore, a sensitive observation network has been established in
KantoTokai area since the year 2000. Based on eleven yearsf observation,
plenty of geomagnetic data have been accumulated, which provides an excellent
opportunity to find answers to the questions above. Thus, in this study I
have conducted an investigation of ULF seismomagnetic
phenomena in Izu and Boso Peninsulas, Japan, based on the data observed from
20002010. First, case studies of major events
have been applied. Energy of ULF geomagnetic signals at the frequency around
0.01 Hz has been investigated by wavelet transform analysis. In order to
minimize the influences of artificial noises, only the midnight time data (LT
1:00 ~ 4:00) have been utilized. To indentify
anomalous changes from ionospheric disturbances, the standard station Memabutsu has been chosen as a reference station. (1)
Case studies of the 2000 Izu Islands earthquake swarm have indicated that
there are unusual geomagnetic energy enhancements in vertical component
before and during the earthquake swarm. (2) Case studies of the 2005 Boso M
6.1 earthquake have also shown clear geomagnetic energy enhancements in
vertical component before the earthquake. (3) Case studies of the 2002 and
2007 slow slip events have demonstrated that there are geomagnetic energy
enhancements in both vertical and horizontal components during the slip
events. Then,
to verify and clarify the relation between ULF geomagnetic anomalies and
seismicity, statistical studies by superposed epoch analysis (SEA) have been
carried out. The results have indicated that before a sizeable earthquake
there are clearly higher probabilities of ULF anomalies than after the
earthquake: for Seikoshi (SKS) station in Izu,
about 20~30 days before, one week and few days before, and one day after the
event statistical results of daily counts are significant; for Kiyosumi (KYS) station in Boso around two weeks before,
few days before, and one day after the event. Finally, to find out the detailed
waveform of anomalous magnetic signals, waveform analysis has been performed.
The results show that there are mainly two kinds of seismomagnetic
signature. (1) Noiselike signals: Compared with the background, the signals
exhibit small increases of amplitudes at a wide frequency range. (2)
Transient/quasirectangular signals: the signals have transient/quasirectangular
waveforms with amplitudes of several nT (~ 10^{9}
T). The noiselike signals usually persist for several days or even a few
weeks, and are mainly associated with large earthquakes; the
transient/quasirectangular signals have durations of few seconds to few ten
seconds, and are registered mainly during slow slip events. Based on the results obtained above,
we conclude that: (1) there is a correlation between ULF geomagnetic
anomalies and local sizeable earthquakes in Izu and Boso Peninsulas, Japan, and
the common period of significant results is few days before and one day after
a sizeable earthquake; (2) there are mainly two kinds of seismomagnetic
signature registered in Izu and Boso Peninsulas: noiselike signals and
transient/quasirectangular signals. The mechanisms of the anomalous
geomagnetic signals are still unclear and need further studies. The 32nd
SpeakerF@Prof.
Savage, Martha iSchool of
Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington,
New Zealand EProfessorj
DateF@13 November 2012@@@TimeF@16:0018:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Towards Predicting Earthquakes and
Volcanic Eruptions using Statistical Techniques AbstractF@ Predicting
natural hazards is fraught and statistical techniques are necessary to put
such studies on a firm standing.
Here we discuss two methods that we have applied to volcanic areas. Analysis of the rates of earthquake
activity (CURATE) is used to determine the characteristics of earthquake
swarms to try to determine how they develop over time. The technique compares favourably to other declustering
techniques and allows us to consider whether some swarms are triggered by
underlying processes that create diffuse seismicity that is not well modelled
by Omorifs law. We also analyse waveforms of
earthquakes to determine seismic anisotropy, which depends upon stress
orientation and magnitude, which in turn can be influenced by earthquake and
volcanic activity. Seismic waves
travel faster when their particle motion is along the cracks, which orient
with the principal stress direction.
At volcanoes around the world, we discovered significant changes in
seismic anisotropy strength and orientation that correlate with magma
movement. Detecting and
evaluating such changes is complicated by scattered measurements, which
sometimes have 90 degree ambiguities and we have
been considering ways to make the techniques more robust. These observations will provide the
data that may eventually lead to prediction tools. The 31st
SpeakerF@Dr.
Omi, Takahiro iUniversity
of Tokyo E JST
Postdoctoral Researcherj DateF@25 October 2012@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@4F lounge, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@A statespace model for estimating the
timevarying detection rate of earthquakes and its application to immediate
probabilistic prediction of aftershocks AbstractF@ After
a large earthquake, the detection rate of earthquakes temporarily decreases,
and a lot of earthquakes are missed from a catalog. Such incompleteness of
the catalog prevents us from estimating statistical models of aftershock
activity accurately. To overcome this difficulty, Ogata and Katsura (2005)
modeled the incomplete catalog by using a parametric model of a timevarying
detection rate of earthquakes. In
this talk, we propose a state space model for estimating the timevarying
detection rate. In our model, the estimation problem is recursively solved,
by using Kalman filter and a Gaussian approximation of the posterior
probability distribution. Thus our model has an
advantage in realtime computation. Finally our
model is combined with the OmoriUtsu law to
predict the occurrence rate of underlying aftershocks. We present some
results on the immediate probabilistic prediction of aftershocks. The 30th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Wang, Ting iUniversity
of Otago, New Zealand E Lecturerj DateF@24 July 2012@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Hidden Markov models in modelling
earthquake data AbstractF@ Earthquakes
are processes in which the internal workings (such as the accumulation of
tectonic stress) are only observed indirectly, although the final effects are
all too observable! Hidden Markov models (HMMs, a general statistical
framework for modelling partially observed systems) are an intuitively
attractive idea for analysing seismicity. I will
briefly introduce the idea of using HMMs to investigate earthquake cycles,
and then focus on one case study incorporating GPS data into earthquake
forecasting. A new
model we developed, the Markovmodulated Hawkes process with stepwise decay
(MMHPSD), can capture the cyclic parentgeneratingoffspring feature of the
temporal behaviour of earthquakes. The
decomposition of the earthquake cycle motivated the construction of a
nonlinear filter measuring shortterm deformation ratechanges to extract
signals from GPS data. This filter was applied to a) deep earthquakes in
central North Island, New Zealand, and b) shallow earthquakes in Southern
California. The study examines the use of HMMs to extract possible precursory
information that indicates an elevated probability of large earthquakes
occurrence. This study is controversial and still requires further tests.
Japan is an ideal place to carry out this test. The 29th
1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Daley, Daryl iDepartment
of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne E Honorary Professorial Associatej DateF@6 July 2012@@@TimeF@14:30 15:30 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Dimension walks and Schoenberg spectral
measures for isotropic random fields AbstractF@ Schoenberg
(1938) showed how Bochner's basic representation theorem for positive
definite functions (e.g. correlation function of a
stationary stochastic process) `simplifies' for spatial processes (ddimensional
random fields) which are isotropic: the standard Fourier kernel function is
replaced by the characteristic function of a random direction in dspace and
the spectral measure, instead of being on dspace, is on the positive
halfline. The
talk describes how Wendland's `dimension walks', which were defined earlier
by Matheron as Descente and Montee
in studying relations between dD and either (d+2)D or (d2)D correlation
functions, are equivalent to simple modifications of their dSchoenberg measures. Another
family of dimension walks arises from projections from unit dspheres to
lower dimensional spheres, first via the kernel functions in the Schoenberg
representation and then more generally, for dSchoenberg measures. 2 SpeakerF@Dr.
Baddeley, Adrian iCSIRO
Mathematics, Informatics & Statistics E
Research Scientistj DateF@6 July 2012@@@TimeF@15:30 16:30 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Leverage, influence and residual
diagnostics for point process models AbstractF@ For a
spatial point process model fitted to spatial point pattern data, we develop diagnostics
for model validation, analogous to the classical measures of leverage and
influence and residual plots in a generalized linear model. The diagnostics
can be characterised as derivatives of basic
functional of the model. They can also be derived heuristically (and computed
in practice) as the limits of classical diagnostics under increasingly fine discretizations of the spatial domain. We apply the
diagnostics to example datasets where there are concerns about model
validity. 3 SpeakerF@Dr.
Shimatani, Kenichiro iAssociate
Prof. of ISMj DateF@6 July 2012@@@TimeF@15:30 16:30 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Inferring parameters in inhomogeneous NeymanScott
processes using the Palm likelihood AbstractF@ Plant
populations often exhibit spatially clustering distributions, in which the
two processes, limited seed dispersal and limited safe sites, are primary
mechanisms. The inhomogeneous NeymanScott process can combine and model
these two ecological processes. Estimating the model parameters allows
evaluation of the relative effects of dispersal and safe sites
retrospectively from spatial individual distribution data along environmental
gradients. Here we propose a likelihoodbased method for this spatial point
process by extending the recently developed method, the Palm likelihood. Our
approach was applied to evenaged black spruce forests in Canada. We obtained
a set of model parameters that well reproduced the observed spatial patterns,
and the fitted point processes predicted the reassembly pathway of the boreal
forests. The 27th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Jiang, Changsheng iInstitute of
Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, China E Associate Professorj DateF@19 June 2012@@@TimeF@ LocationF@4th floor lounge, Institute of
Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Background sesismicty
and its application in the study of Accelerating Moment release (AMR) and
Pattern Informatics (PI) method
iChangsheng
Jiang, Zhongliang Wu and Jiancang
Zhuangj AbstractF@ The 26th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Chan, ChungHan iDepartment
of Geosciences, National Taiwan University E
Postdoctoral Fellowj DateF@29 May 2012@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Shortterm earthquake forecasting
through a smoothing Kernel and the rateandstate friction law: Application
to Taiwan and the Kanto region, Japan AbstractF@ An
earthquake forecasting approach was employed for estimating the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity density in
Taiwan and the Kanto region, Japan. To evaluate longterm seismicity rate, a
smoothing Kernel function based on the distribution of past earthquakes was
proposed. With the use of the rateandstate friction model, shortterm rate
evolution according to the faultinteraction stress disturbance was
forecasted. To test feasibility of this model, it was applied using a catalog
for the area surrounding Taiwan. It leads to good agreement between the model
forecast and actual observations to prove its forecasting accuracy. To check
its stability, we estimated the deviation of the models according to
different parameters used in the approach. We conclude that deviations within
each parameter had an insignificant impact on forecasting stability. For the
application to the Kanto region, we proposed a 3D forecasting model due to
its complex tectonic setting. The seismicity patterns at various depths are
illustrated and the seismicity rate in the crust and along the subduction
zones can be distinguished. The high seismicity rate offshore in the east at
the depth of 2050 km can be associated with stress increase imparted by the
2011 Tohoku sequence. This phenomenon can be forecasted according to the
rateandstate friction model. The proposed approach, with verified
applicability for seismicity forecasts, could be useful for seismic hazard
mitigation. The application could provide a warning before the occurrence of
consequent earthquakes and would be valuable for consequent studies, e.g.,
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The 25th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Guillas, Serge iDepartment
of Statistical Science, University College London E Readerj
DateF@18 May 2012@@@TimeF@16:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Earthquake occurrence: emulation and
climate forcing AbstractF@ In
earthquake occurrence studies, the socalled q value can be considered both
as one of the parameters describing the distribution of interevent times and
as an index of nonextensivity. Using simulated datasets, we compare four
estimators, based on principle of maximum entropy, method of moments, maximum
likelihood, and probability weighted moments (PMW) of the parameters of the
distribution of interevents times, assumed to be a generalized Pareto
distribution. We then use the unbiased version of PWM estimators to compute
the q value for the distribution of interevent times in a realistic
earthquake catalogue simulated according to the epidemic type aftershock
sequence (ETAS) model. Finally, we use these findings to build a statistical
emulator of the q values of ETAS model. We employ treed Gaussian processes to
obtain partitions of the parameter space so that the resulting model respects
sharp changes in physical behaviour. The emulator
is used to understand the joint effects of input parameters on the q value,
exploring the relationship between ETAS model formulation and distribution of
interevent times. We
then present statistical evidence for a temporal link between variations in
the El Ni¬o¬Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and the occurrence of earthquakes on the East Pacific Rise
(EPR). We adopt a zeroinflated Poisson regression model to represent the
relationship between the number of earthquakes in the Easter microplate on
the EPR and ENSO (expressed using the southern oscillation index (SOI) for
east Pacific sealevel pressure anomalies) from February 1973 to February
2009. We also examine the relationship between the numbers of earthquakes and
sea levels, as retrieved by Topex/Poseidon from October 1992 to July 2002. We
observe a significant positive influence of SOI on seismicity: positive SOI
values trigger more earthquakes over the following 2 to 6 months than negative
SOI values. There is a significant negative influence of absolute sea levels
on seismicity (at 6 months lag). We propose that increased seismicity is
associated with ENSOdriven seasurface gradients (rising from east to west)
in the equatorial Pacific, leading to a reduction in oceanbottom pressure
over the EPR by a few kilopascal. This relationship
is opposite to reservoirtriggered seismicity and suggests that EPR fault
activity may be triggered by plate flexure associated with the reduced pressure.
The 24th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Terakawa, Toshiko iEarthquake
and Volcano Research Center, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya
University EAssistant Professorj
DateF@11 May 2012@@@TimeF@14:0017:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics TitleF@Temporal Changes in Fault Strength and
Pore Fluid Pressures Following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku
Earthquake AbstractF@ Extensive
aftershocks and triggered seismic events are ubiquitous following large
earthquakes, but the controlling mechanisms are not yet understood. Focal
mechanisms of these events can provide insight into physical triggering
mechanisms because they reflect friction coefficient and pore fluid pressure
on the fault as well as the tectonic stress pattern. In the present study we
investigate physical processes triggering seismic events in inland region of
the northeast Japan following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku
earthquake (Mw = 9.0) by examining focal mechanisms to the tectonic stress
pattern and changes in the Coulomb failure function (DCFF). The local
excitation of seismicity rate in the regions with negative DCFF indicates
that these aftershocks would have been triggered by decrease of fault
strength due to the increase of pore fluid pressures. We show a plausible
explanation that seismic events on unfavourably
oriented preexisting faults relative to the tectonic stress pattern, or
focal mechanisms inconsistent with the tectonic stress pattern, would be
evidence for drastic decrease of fault strength due to increase of pore fluid
pressures. The 23rd
SpeakerF@Prof.
Khmaladze, Estate V. DateF@12 December 2011@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Infinitesimal analysis of setvalued
functions and applications to spacial statistics
and image analysis AbstractF@¨PDF The
problem under consideration started with a study of spacial
changepoint problem, or changeset problem as we called it: suppose there is
a set $K$, such that our observations inside this set behave differently then anywhere outside it. Given $n$ observations, how can
we test that a given $K$ is the correct one against its small perturbation
$K(\varepsilon)$ as an alternative? In huge amount of publications on the
changeset problem, almost all devoted to the estimation of the changeset,
we could not find such an object as an "alternative set" $K(\varepsilon)$.
One reason for this porbably is that it is not easy
to realize how to describe small changes in sets. We
developed an appropriate notion of the derivative of setvalued function in
(Khmaladze, 2007) and used it to build a version of contiguity theory in (Einmahl, Khmaladze, 2011) for statistical problems where
the parameter of interest is a set. One
single result here is that if $\Phi_n$ is a point
process with increasing intenstiy $n$, and the
symmetric difference $K(\varepsilon)\Delta K$ shrinks and "vanishes" as $\varepsilon \to 0$, then the sequence $\Phi_n(K(\varepsilon)\Delta K)$
lives in the limit on the derivative set $dK(\varepsilon)/d\varepsilon$: $$\Phi_n( K(\varepsilon)\Delta K) \to \Psi (dK(\varepsilon)/d\varepsilon, {\rm
as} n\to\infty, \varepsilon\to
0.$$ In
the talk we present the main framework of this approach. We hope that some
discussions would lead to further applications. The 22nd
SpeakerF@Dr.
Iwata, Takaki iProject Associate Professor of ISMj DateF@25 November 2011@@@TimeF@13:3014:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@The slip distribution of the 2011
Tohokuoki earthquake inferred from the spatial
distribution of its aftershocks AbstractF@ We
have developed a method to estimate the spatial slip distribution of a large
earthquake based on its onfault aftershock activity and the rate and
statedependent friction model (Dieterich, 1994, JGR). This talk will represents the application of this method to the 2011
Tohokuoki earthquake. The outline of the method is
as follows. First, we divided the source area of the destructive earthquake
into 450 subfaults of which size is 20 x 20 km.
Next the slips of each subfault were optimized to
make the expected spatial distribution of aftershocks fit to the observed
distribution during one day after the mainshock. The expected distribution
was derived from the Dieterichfs formulation and the goodnessoffit between
the expected and observed distributions was evaluated by means of the
likelihood for pointprocess model. Then we constructed a Bayesian model
incorporating smoothness constraint on the spatial slip distribution, because
optimizing such a huge number of parameters is unstable; the incorporation of
the constraint enhances the stability of the optimization. To compute the
posterior distribution of the parameters in this Bayesian framework, the
Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used. The result of this approach found
an asperity close to the hypocenter and some small asperities located to the
southwest of the hypocenter. This feature is consistent with the results of
some slip inversions based on seismograph, geodetic, and/or tsunami data,
suggesting that seismic activity data would play an important role in the
estimation of rupture process of an earthquake. The 21st 1 SpeakerF@Prof.
Schorlemmer, Danijel iGFZ German
Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany EProfessorj DateF@18 October 2011@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Advancements in Probabilistic Seismic
Network Completeness Studies AbstractF@ An
important characteristic of any seismic network is its detection
completeness, which should be considered a function of space and time. Many
researchers rely on robust estimates of detection completeness, especially
when investigating statistical parameters of earthquake occurrence. We
present the Probabilitybased Magnitude of Completeness (PMC) method for
computing the spatial variation and temporal evolution of detection
capability of seismic networks based on empirical data only: phase data,
station information, and the network specific attenuation relation. New
developments are extending this method to complex 3D structures like mining
environments. We
present studies of regional networks from California, Switzerland, Italy,
Japan, New Zealand, and compare the result with estimated completeness levels
of other methods. We report on the time evolution of monitoring completeness
in these regions. Scenario computations show the impact of different possible
network failures and offer estimates of possible network optimization
strategies. Optimizations are reducing the necessary processor time for
computing. All presented results are published on the Completeness Web (www.completenessweb.org) from which
the user can download completeness data from all investigated regions,
software codes for reproducing the results, and publicationready and
customizable figures 2 SpeakerF@Prof.
Rundle, John B. iDepartment
of Physics and Geology, University of California, Davis, U.S.A. E Distinguished Professorj DateF@18 October 2011@@@TimeF@16:00 18:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Forecasting Large Earthquakes:
Problems, Pitfalls and Promise AbstractF@ Forecasting
the future behavior of a stochastic complex system is a necessary and
critical activity with wide applications. As the mathematician Edward Thorp
showed many years ago [1,2], forecasting has applications in games of chance
as well as in financial markets.
Both fields represent applications of statistics, stochastic random
walks, and probability theory.
Objective evaluation of forecasts by established tests and measures is
also a necessary and important component of a forecasting system. Many of the modern tests have been
tabulated at [3]. Earthquake
forecasts are a special case of the forecasting problem, particularly as
applied to large earthquakes such as the March 11, M9 Off the Pacific Coast
of Tohoku earthquake. Forecasts
of future events in complex systems are in general plagued by incomplete
information, a problem that must be considered in constructing forecasts. In addition to these problems,
delivery of realtime forecast information to the scientific community and to
the public is an issue as well.
Here, web 2.0 technology is helpful in allowing rapid dissemination of
information. In this lecture, I
shall discuss these general aspects of the forecasting problem as applied to
earthquake forecasting. I will
discuss ideas based on the Natural Time Weibull method of earthquake
forecasting, recently developed by our group. I will also discuss our experiences
with numerical earthquake simulations, as well as with public outreach using the
World Wide Web (see www.openhazards.com). [1]
E. Thorp and S. Kassouf, Beat the Market: A Scientific Stock Market System, Random
House (1967) [2]
E. Thorp, Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of TwentyOne,
Random House (1962) [3]
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/ The 20th
SpeakerF@Dr.
Kagan, Yan Y. iDepartment
Earth and Space Sciences (ESS), UCLA, U.S.A. E
Researcherj DateF@2 September 2011@@@TimeF@16:00 17:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Statistical properties of earthquake
occurrence and their application for earthquake forecasting AbstractF@ Earthquake
occurrence exhibits scaleinvariant statistical properties: (a) Earthquake
size distribution is a powerlaw (the GutenbergRichter relation for
magnitudes or the Pareto distribution for seismic moment). Preservation of
energy principle requires that the distribution should be limited on the high
side; thus we use the generalized gamma or tapered
Pareto distribution. The observational value of the distribution index is
about 0.65. However, it can be shown that empirical evaluation is upward
biased, and the index of 1/2, predicted by theoretical arguments, is likely
to be its proper value. The corner (maximum) moment has an
universal value for shallow earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. We
also determined the corner moment values for 8 other tectonic zones. (b) Earthquake
occurrence has a powerlaw temporal decay of the rate of the aftershock and
foreshock occurrence (Omori's law), with the index 0.5 for shallow
earthquakes. The shortterm clustering of large earthquakes is followed by a
transition to the Poisson occurrence rate. In the subduction zones this
transition occurs (depending on the deformation rate) after 715 years,
whereas in active continents or plateinteriors the transition occurs after
decades or even centuries. (c)
The spatial distribution of earthquakes is fractal: the correlation dimension
of earthquake hypocenters is equal to 2.2 for shallow earthquakes. (d)
The stochastic 3D disorientation of earthquake focal mechanisms is
approximated by the rotational Cauchy distribution. On
the basis of our statistical studies, since 1977 we have developed
statistical short and longterm earthquake forecasts to predict earthquake
rate per unit area, time, and magnitude. The forecasts are based on smoothed
maps of past seismicity and assume spatial and temporal clustering. Our
recent program forecasts earthquakes on a 0.1 degree
grid for a global region 90N90S latitude. For this purpose
we use the PDE catalog that reports many smaller quakes (M>=5.0). For the
longterm forecast we test two types of smoothing kernels based on the
powerlaw and on the spherical Fisher distribution. We employ adaptive kernel
smoothing which improves our forecast in seismically quiet areas. Our
forecasts can be tested within a relatively short time period since smaller
events occur with greater frequency. The forecast efficiency can be measured
by likelihood scores expressed as the average probability gains per
earthquake compared to the spatially or temporally uniform Poisson
distribution. The other method uses the error diagram to display the
forecasted point density and the point events. As an
illustration of our methods, we are trying to answer a question: was the
Tohoku megaearthquake of 2011/3/11 a surprise? We consider three issues
related to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake: (1)
Why was the magnitude limit for the Tohoku region so badly underestimated,
and how can we estimate realistic limits for subduction zones in general? (2)
How frequently can such large events occur off Tohoku? (3)
Could shortterm forecasts have offered effective guidance for emergency preparation? Two
methods can be applied to estimate the maximum earthquake size in any region:
statistical analysis of available earthquake records, and the moment
conservation principle  how earthquakes release tectonic deformation. We
have developed both methods since 1991. For subduction zones, the seismic
record is usually insufficient (in fact it failed badly for Tohoku), because
the largest earthquakes are so rare. However, the moment conservation
principle yields consistent estimates for all subduction zones. Various
measurements imply maximum moment magnitudes of the order 9.09.7. A
comparison of the interearthquake secular strain accumulation and its
release by the coseismic slip implies a similar
maximum earthquake size estimate. Beginning in 1999 we
used our statistical short and longterm earthquake forecasts, based on the
GCMT catalog, for the western Pacific, including Japan. We have posted them
on the web and included expected focal mechanisms as well. Longterm
forecasts indicate that the average frequency for magnitude 9 earthquakes in
the Tohoku area is about 1/400 years. We have archived several forecasts made
before and after the Tohoku earthquake. As expected, the Tohoku
megaearthquake changed the forecasted longterm rate by just a few percent.
However, the magnitude 7.5 foreshock increased the short
term rate to about 100 times the longterm rate, and the magnitude 9
event increased it briefly to more than 1000 times the longterm rate. These
results could well justify the development of an operational earthquake
forecasting plan. The 19th DateF@4 March 2011@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) 1 SpeakerF@Dr.
Talbi, Abdelhak iERI,
University of Tokyo E Researcherj TitleF@Analysis of Earthquake Interevent
Times AbstractF@ Understanding
temporal behavior of earthquakes is a fundamental step towards building
reliable statistical model fitting observed seismicity. A successful class of
models assume two seismicity components corresponding to stable backgroundEand
varying triggeredErates or interevent times. In this
study, the distribution of interevent times is modeled assuming triggered
events governed by a nonhomogenous Poisson process, and background events
governed by different hypothetical distribution (Exponential, Gamma and
Weibull). The model is analytically introduced using PalmKhinchine
equations and fitted in practice to seismicity data from southern California,
Japan and Turkey. The analytic form of the distribution is discussed when
different priory hypotheses are adopted.In
a second step, the temporal clustering of events is studied using the
distance between the whole distribution of interevent times, and the
residual distributions obtained using different declustering
approaches. Short and long range correlations are
studied in space and time. The residual background process is found dominant
around the mean interevent time and the mean interevent distance. The
former analysis describes seismicity as the accumulation of local
perturbations related to a unique mean field backgroundEprocesses
characterized by the mean interevent time and the mean interdistance. 2 SpeakerF@Prof.
Console, Rodolfo iNational
Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology Rome, Italy E Senior Scientific Advisorj TitleF@Shortterm earthquake forecasting
before and during the L'Aquila
(Central Italy) seismic sequence of April 2009 AbstractF@ The
M5.9 earthquake occurred on April 6th 2009, which caused more than 300
casualties in the city of L'Aquila and neighboring villages in Central Italy,
immediately generated a lot of discussions about the potential practical use
of foreshocks and other kind of information for mitigating seismic risk among
the population. These discussions triggered studies related to the validity
of statistical clustering models such as the ETAS model, not only for
forecasting aftershocks, but also mainshocks following potential foreshocks.
In the frame of the above mentioned studies, this
presentation reports preliminary results of the statistical analysis of the L'Aquila seismic sequence by means of a
version of the group of ETAS models. The free parameters used in the
algorithm are obtained through the maximum likelihood method from a learning
data set of instrumental seismicity collected from 2005 up to March 2009 in
the region of L'Aquila. Our method includes statistical declustering of the background seismicity by an iterative
process until the maximum likelihood of the learning data set under the ETAS
model is obtained. For testing purposes, an algorithm for producing
simulations of seismic series has been developed and applied to produce
synthetic catalogues, the statistical properties of which are compared with
those of the real one. Finally, the daily forecasts of earthquakes at
different threshold magnitudes were produced for a testing period including
the L'Aquila 2009 mainshocks and its largest aftershocks. The results show
that the probability of occurrence of an M5.9 computed from the ETAS
algorithm at the midnight preceding the L'Aquila
2009 mainshock, even if it was much higher than the background Poisson
probability, was quite low if compared with reasonable expectations for a
practical operational forecast. Moreover, the comparison between the daily
rate expected by the ETAS forecast method, and the real daily number of
aftershocks shows a systematic underestimation of such rate. The 18th SpeakerF@Dr.
Falcone, Giuseppe iNational
Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology Rome, Italy E Researcherj DateF@17 February 2011@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D313 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Earthquake occurrence models and their
validation AbstractF@ This
presentation describes the tests and the forecast verification procedures of
three earthquake occurrence models applied to the various regions of the
globe (Italy, California, Japan) to assess the occurrence probabilities of
future earthquakes: two as shortterm (24 hour) models, and one as longterm
(5 and 10 years). The first model for shortterm forecasts is a purely
stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES) model. The second shortterm
model is an epidemic ratestate (ERS) forecast based on a model that is
physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the
Dieterich ratestate constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a
longterm stress transfer (LTST) model that considers the perturbations of
earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb
stress changes. The forecast verification procedures have been carried out in
forwardretrospective and in real time way making use of statistical tools as
the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams, Loglikelihood,
NTest, LTest and Observed and forecasted number of events. The seismic
hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and
refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to earthquake hazard
assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making
and public information. These
models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability (CSEP) for forecast testing for Italy (ETH Zurich) and Japan
(ERI Tokyo). The 17th SpeakerF@Dr.
Chen, Kate Huihsuan iDepartment of Earth Sciences, National
Taiwan Normal University E Assistant
Professorj DateF@28 January 2011@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@Room D313 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Triggering effect of small to large
earthquakes on earthquake cycle of small repeating events AbstractF@ Knowledge
of what governs the timing of repeating earthquakes is essential to
understanding the nature of the earthquake cycle and to determining
earthquake hazard, yet the variability and controls of earthquake recurrences
are not well established. Several unsolved problems regarding the recurrence
properties of natural earthquake sequences remain: How do the repeating
sequences respond to static and dynamic stress perturbations associated with
nearby earthquakes? To what degree does fault interaction influence the
timing of repeating earthquakes? Do spatially adjacent repeating sequences
communicate with each other in a way that is clearly evident in similar
occurrence times or recurrence patterns? Here
we use a large population of small, characteristically repeating earthquakes
at Parkfield provides to study how the interaction of nearby earthquakes
affects their recurrence properties. We analyze 114 M 0.4 ~ 3.0 repeating
earthquake sequences (RES) to examine the triggering effect from nearby microseismicity. We find that closebyevents influence
RESfs timing in a matter of minutes or hours by shortterm triggering. Events
that occurred within less than 1 day of an RES often imposed or experienced
high stress changes. A stress increment of 10 kPa appears to be needed to
produce such effectively immediate triggering. The 16th SpeakerF@Prof.
Console, Rodolfo iNational
Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology Rome, Italy E Senior Scientific Advisorj DateF@17 January 2011@@@TimeF@15:00 16:00 LocationF@4F Lounge, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Renewal modeling and coseismic stress
transfer for seismic hazard assessment in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault
system AbstractF@ Earthquake
forecasts have always been a difficult task because they can be affected by
uncertainty in terms of the most appropriate model and the involved parameter
values. The models adopted in this study belongs to the category of the
renewal models, based on the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, the
necessary ingredients of which are a fixed geometry and the knowledge of the
slip rate on the faults. Both the BPT and the Weibull distribution have been
tested. The hazard rate so obtained is then modified by the inclusion of a
permanent effect due to the Coulomb static stress change caused by failure of
neighboring faults that occurred since the latest characteristic earthquake
on the concerned fault. I apply this method along the Corinth gulf extension
zone, a place that is rich with observations of strongearthquake recurrence
behavior, to assess their relative forecast applicability. The validity of
the renewal models is assessed in retrospective way on the data of the last
300 years by comparison with a plain time independent Poisson model. This is
done by means of statistical tools as the ROC diagram, the Rscore and the
loglikelihood ratio. I find that the renewal models perform better than the
Poisson hypothesis. It seems also that the BPT distribution works slightly
better than the Weibull distribution, while little advantage is achieved by
the introduction of the Coulomb static stress change in the forecasting
algorithm. The 15th SpeakerF@Dr.
Parsons, Tom iUnited
States Geological Survey, U.S.A. E
Research Geophysicistj DateF@4 January@2011@@@TimeF@14:00 15:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@What causes aftershocks? AbstractF@ Despite
decades of research devoted to this question, we still do not know how
mainshocks cause aftershocks. In this presentation I show recent research
that attempts to isolate static and dynamic stressing signals so that we can
learn more about their abilities to trigger other earthquakes. We hope
someday to combine physical models with statistical models for forecasting,
but I show that the physical models still have problems when used
prospectively. The 14th SpeakerF@Dr.
Toda,
Shinji iVisiting
Prof. of ISM / Associate Prof. of The Disaster
Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Universityj DateF@17 November 2010@@@TimeF@13:3014:30 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer
model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast AbstractF@ Numerous
studies retrospectively found that seismicity rate jumps (drops) due to coseismic Coulomb stress increase (decrease). The
Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) instead
provides us an opportunity for prospective testing of the Coulomb hypothesis.
Here we adapt our stress transfer model incorporating rate and state
dependent friction law to the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast. We demonstrate
how to compute the forecast rates of large shocks in 2009 using the large
earthquakes during the past 120 years. The time dependent impact of the coseismic stress perturbations explains qualitatively
well the occurrence of the recent moderate size shocks. Such ability is
partly similar to that of statistical earthquake clustering models. However,
our model differs from
them as follows: the offfault aftershock zones can be simulated using finite
fault sources; the regional areal patterns of triggered seismicity are
modified by the dominant mechanisms of the potential sources; the imparted
stresses due to large earthquakes produce stress shadows that lead to a
reduction of the forecasted number of earthquakes. Although the model relies
on several unknown parameters, it is the first physics based model submitted
to the CSEP Japan test center and has the potential to be tuned for
shortterm earthquake forecasts. The 13th SpeakerF@Dr.
Bansal, Abhey Ram iNational
Geophysical Research Institute, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research
(NGRI, CSIR) (India)EScientist
E1^Fellow of
the JSPS Invitation Fellowship Programs for Research in Japan (a longterm
program); Visiting Researcher of the ISMj DateF@16 July 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Statistical seismology of Sumatra:
before and after the megaearthquake of 26 December 2004 AbstractF@ We
examine the effect of the Special
Seminar SpeakerF@Prof.
VereJones,
David iStatistics
Research Associates Limited (SRA), New Zealand E
Directorj DateF@30 June 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@The Evolution of Statistical
Seismology AbstractF@ Some
account is given of the early days of statistical seismology, and some issues
raised for future consideration in this field. The 12th SpeakerF@Dr.
Sugaya, Katsunori iProject
Researcher of ISMj DateF@23 April 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Coseismic change
and recovery of scattering environment in the crust after a large earthquake (Sugaya,
K., Hiramatsu, Y., Furumoto, M. and Katao, H.) AbstractF@ The
coda waves mainly consist of scattered S waves in the crust. The attenuation
property of coda waves, coda Q^1 or Qc^1, reflects the scattering and
absorption environments in the crust and is supposed to be a good tool to
investigate medium properties in the crust. Furthermore, Qc^1 is a good
indicator of the stress condition in the crust. We
observe a unique temporal variation in crustal heterogeneity from the analysis
of Qc^1 for 14 years in the Tamba region, northeast to the rupture zone of
the 1995 Hyogoken Nanbu earthquake (Mjma 7.3) in
southwest Japan. The values of Qc^1 at lower frequencies (1.54.0 Hz) that
increased coseismically due to the static stress
change decreased back to the preevent values in about two years. No such
variations are found at higher frequencies (5.024.0 Hz). We confirm that no
tectonic events that cause a significant stress change occurred during the
recovery period. The time required for the recovery of the scattering
environment, such as the number density of cracks and cracks opened by the
stress change, observed here is consistent with those of previous studies
focused on the brittle shallower crust. This suggests a possibility that a
similar mechanism of the recovery operates both in the brittle and the
ductile parts of the crust. The 11th SpeakerF@Prof.
Kuensch, Hans R.iETH Zurich, Switzerland E Professorj DateF@9 April 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312B (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Particle and Ensemble Kalman filtering
(Kuensch, Hans R. and Frei, Marco) AbstractF@ Ensemble
and particle filtering are two sequential Monte Carlo methods for
approximating the filter distributions in nonlinear and/or nonGaussian state
space models. They differ in the way a new observation is taken into account
in the update step. The particle filter is nonparametric and works by
weighting and resampling. The Ensemble Kalman filter (EnsKF)
requires a linear Gaussian observation model and proceeds by a Monte Carlo
implementation of the linear Kalman
filter update. In a different version of the ENSKF called the square root
filter, updates are done by a linear transformation of the prediction sample
(without any additional randomness). Even though the EnsKF
is based on unwarranted assumptions, it is extremely robust in many high
dimensional applications where the number of particles is small because of
computational limitations. In contrast, the particle filter degenerates
quickly as the dimension of the observations increases. I
will discuss some of the following issues: EnsKF
for nonlinear observation equations, the use of the EnsKF
for parameter estimation, regularization of the estimated prediction
covariance, bias due to estimation of the prediction covariance, localization
of the EnsKF update, behavior of the EnsKF for Gaussian mixture predictions and ideas for
combining the EnsKF and the particle filter. The 10th SpeakerF@Wang,
Qi iDepartment
of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, U.S.A.j DateF@19 February 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@An optimized fiveyear large
earthquake forecast in California based on smoothed seismicity (Qi Wang, D.D.Jackson and Y.Y. Kagan) AbstractF@ Earthquake
forecasting models based on seismic, geologic, tectonic and geodetic
information have been discussed a lot. We tried to state a five year forecast
of California earthquakes with magnitude above 5.0 based on smoothed
seismicity. We used extended sources to represent large earthquakes. Kagan
and Jackson (2007) have presented a fiveyear forecast of southern California
earthquakes with magnitude 5 or larger. Here we extend the forecast region
from southern California to all of California using the new California
earthquake catalog with estimated moment magnitude, and in one case we
include historic earthquakes as well as instrumentally recorded ones after
considering catalog incompleteness. This forecast model differs from others
like it because larger events are represented by multiple point sources and
because the parameters in the spatial smoothing kernel have been optimized in
learning period by using maximum likelihood estimation. We tried to answer
two basic questions: (1) whether the anisotropic and magnitudedependent
smoothing kernels outperform the isotropic and magnitudeindependent ones;
(2) whether including large historical earthquakes could improve the
forecast. Moreover, earthquake
data have errors in location, magnitude and focal mechanism that can
influence the results of earthquake studies. Neglecting these errors, or
estimating them poorly, could cause valid hypotheses to be rejected or
invalid ones to be accepted. We tried to estimate how the uncertainty of
catalog data especially uncertainty of magnitude influences our testable
forecast results. The 9th SpeakerF@Dr.
Terakawa, Toshiko iGeodynamics, SteinmannInstitute,
University of Bonn, Germanyj DateF@29 January 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Identification of the high fluid
pressure source driving the 2009 Lfaquila
earthquake sequence (Toshiko Terakawa, Anna Zoporowski,
Boris Galvan, and Stephen A. Miller) AbstractF@ The
April 6, 2009 Lfaquila intraplate earthquake
(Mw=6.3) in the Central Apennines occurred at the boundary separating regions
of diffuse CO_2 degassing and regions where degassing is not observed. The
same tectonic and geologic environment hosted the 1997 Colfiorito
sequence to the north, which was shown to be driven by degassing of a
highpressure fluid source at depth with a fluid diffusion model [Miller et
al. 2004]. Here we show the 3D fluid pressure field in the Lfaquila
region, applying a new analysis technique termed Focal Mechanism Tomography [Terakawa et al. 2009 (submitted)] to actual seismic
data. We identify three
largescale pockets of high fluid pressure at depths of 710 km, and show a
very strong correlation between these high fluid pressure regions and both
foreshock and aftershock hypocenters. The shape of overpressured regions and
the evolution of aftershock locations indicate that aftershocks are being
driven in part by fluid flow associated with volumetric compression from the mainshock
acting upon the overpressured poroelastic
reservoir [e.g., Nur & Booker 1982; Bosl &
Nur 2002], and by fracturing and subsequent flow from trapped high pressure
pockets [Miller et al. 2004]. The
mapped 3D fluid pressure field inferred from our analysis provides an
important boundary condition for forward modelling of fluid flow and stress
evolution for a mechanistic assessment of the continuing seismic hazard in
the region. These results also form a baseline hypothesis against which other
geophysical and geochemical measurements can be tested. The 8th SpeakerF@Dr.
Himeno, Tetsuto iProject Researcher of Institute of
Polar Sciencesj DateF@15 January 2010@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room A508 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Time variation of background
seismicity on ETAS model AbstractF@ The
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model introduced by Ogata (1988) is
one of statistical method for seismicity. This model classifies earthquake
sequence into aftershocks and background seismicity. For the frequency of
aftershocks, some empirical relations is assumed. On the other hand,
background seismicity rate is constant. Therefore, the main shock sequence is
distributed according to stationary Poisson process. In this study, we focus
the time variation of background seismicity and expand the background
seismicity. The 7th SpeakerF@Dr.
Chu, Annie iProject
Researcher of ISMj DateF@4 December 2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312A (Seminar Room), Institute
of Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Comparison of ETAS parameter estimates
across different global tectonic zones AbstractF@ Branching
point process models such as the ETAS (EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence)
models introduced by (Ogata 1988, 1998) are often used in the description,
characterization, simulation, and declustering of
modern earthquake catalogs. The present work investigates how the parameters in
these models vary across different tectonic zones. After considering
divisions of the surface of the Earth into several zones based on the plate
boundary model of Bird (2003), ETAS models are fit to the occurrence times
and locations of shallow earthquakes within each zone. Computationally, the
EMtype algorithm of Veen and Schoenberg (2008) is employed for the purpose
of model fitting. The fits and
variations in parameter estimates for distinct zones are compared. Seismological explanations for the differences
between the parameter estimates for the various zones are considered, and
implications for seismic hazard estimation and earthquake forecasting are
discussed. The 6th SpeakerF@Prof.
Zhou, Shiyong iDepartment of Geophysics, Peking
University, China E Professorj DateF@30 October 2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D304 (Seminar Room), Institute of
Statistical Mathematics (Tachikawa) TitleF@Was the Ms
8.0 Long Men Shan (Wenchuan) Earthquake in 2008@induced
by the Zipingpu Reservoir? AbstractF@ According
to the Coulomb failure criterion the variation of either shear stress, normal
stress, or pore pressure can result in earthquake occurrences. Abnormal
seismicity increases around reservoirs are often thought to be induced by the
water piled behind the dam, which leads to increases in crustal pore pressure
and Coulomb stress nearby, and so promote the nearby faults to fail. To
investigate how much the ZiPingPu reservoir, whose dam is just a few
hundreds of meters from the Long Men Shan fault, influenced the May 12, 2008
Wenchuan earthquake Ms8.0, we calculated the Coulomb stress variation induced
by the filling of the Zipingpu reservoir, beginning
in December 2004, and analyzed the correlation between the seismicity
variations and the induced Coulomb stress variations. Both the calculated
Coulomb stress variations and the observed seismicity analysis suggest that
the probability that the huge Long Men Shan earthquake Ms8.0 was induced by
the Zipingpu reservoir is very low. The filling of the
Zipingpu reservoir could only result in a small
increase in the rate of shallow earthquakes with hypocenter depth smaller
than 5km near the reservoir region. The 5th SpeakerF@Nomura,
Shunichi
iPh.D. Student of The Graduate University
for Advanced Studies (SOKENDAI)j DateF@2 October 2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room D312, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics (Tachikawa:
http://www.ism.ac.jp/access/index_j.html or
http://www.ism.ac.jp/access/index_e.html) TitleF@Composing prior distributions of BPT
distribution with slip rates in renewal process of recurrent earthquakes AbstractF@ Renewal
process with Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution is mainly used in the
longterm evaluation of active faults by the Earthquake Research Committee,
the Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion (ERC/HERP). In ERC/HERP
(2001), two parameters of BPT distribution, called mean parameter and
aperiodicity (shape) parameter, are estimated as follows: mean parameter is
estimated by either recurrence intervals or slip rates of active faults, and
aperiodicity parameter is commonly set at 0.24. The value of aperiodicity
parameter is derived from the active faults on which more than four
recurrence intervals are detected, but recent researches showed the value of
aperiodicity parameter is inappropriate to apply for all active faults. In
this seminar, we propose an alternative method to estimate the parameters of
BPT distribution of recurrence intervals. First, we normalize the intervals
by mean recurrence time derived from slip size and slip rate of the fault.
Then we can use both intervals and slip rate to estimate its mean parameter.
Second, we use Bayesian inference to estimate the parameters. Bayesian
predictive distribution gives stable prediction when there are few data in
the fault. Prior distributions and their parameters are estimated by
maximizing their marginal likelihood. We simulate recurrence intervals from a
virtual fault and compare our model and ERC/HERP's model by their relative
entropy. The 4th SpeakerF@Kumazawa, Takao iPh.D. Student of The Graduate
University for Advanced Studies (SOKENDAI)j DateF@28 August 2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room 330, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@Seismicity changes in Tohoku District
before the 2008 IwateMiyagi Inland Earthquake
i Kumazawa, Takao (The Graduate
University for Advanced Studies), Ogata, Yoshihiko (The Institute of
Statistical Mathematics) and AbstractF@ The
2008 IwateMiyagi Nairiku earthquake of M7.2 (JMA)
is one of the largest inland earthquakes
occurred in the northern part of Honshu island. We examined seismicity
rate changes in the surrounding areas prior to this earthquake for around 10
years in relation to the ∆CFF values of it. We selected a number of regions
according to the sign of the ∆CFF from the IwateMiyagi inland earthquake,
then examined the series of earthquakes in each region by fitting ETAS models
and examined if the changes of seismicity, if any, were significant and
consistent with the ∆CFF. We
confirmed the preseismicity by transient anomalies in GPS measurement of
several stations. Five
years prior to the event, a M7.1 earthquake of 2003 occurred at 71km. depth
in the subducting Pacific plate, beneath Sanriku
coast, Miyagi prefecture. This
faultfs movement activated the reverse fault system in inland Tohoku District
including the one responsible for IwateMiyagi inland earthquake, raising the
seismicity there. The activated area also covered the fault of M6ǒ5Ņinland
earthquake occurred two months afterward. It as well likely contributed to
the activation. Here
we hypothesize these two large earthquake in 2003 enhanced the precursory
slow slip in the fault of our interest, including its deeper extension, and
explain the observed preseismic patterns. This hypothesis is in concordance
with the GPS location measurement from several stations on and around the
fault. The rate of distance shrinkage between the two stations, one being
right on the fault, can only be well explained by assuming that the active
site moved deeper at some point. We
fitted ETAS model to the observed seismic activity in each selected area and
see if there are meaningful changing points of time, across which the
seismicity being changed significantly in terms of AIC. The search for the
changing points were done first by dividing the whole period either at points
of known events, or at suspicious points with some systematical shifting of
them, then to each divided period ETAS was refitted. Among these combined
ETAS models, the best performed model was compared with the single ETAS
without divisions and examined if its improvement was significant. We finally checked these changing
points are consistent with ∆CFFs. The 3rd SpeakerF@Prof.
Matsufura, Mitsuhiro (Specially Appointed
Prof. of ISMj DateF@14 August 2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room 330, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@Inversion of seismic and geodetic data
to estimate tectonic stress fields in the Earth's crust AbstractF@ The
Earth's crust is macroscopically treated as a linear elastic body, but it
includes a number of defects. The occurrence of inelastic deformation such as
brittle fracture at the defects, which can be generally represented by moment
tensor, brings about elastic deformation in the surrounding regions. Since
the moment tensor is mathematically equivalent to the volume integral of
stress release over the whole elastic region surrounding the source, we can
quantitatively relate the centroid moment tensor (CMT) solutions of seismic
events with a true but unknown tectonic stress field. On the basis of such an
idea, we developed an inversion method to estimate tectonic stress fields
from CMT data using Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (ABIC) [1]. We
show the 3D tectonic stress pattern in and around Japan, obtained by
applying the CMT data inversion method to 15,000 seismic events within the
magnitude range of 3.55.0 in the period of 19972007. The inverted 3D
stress pattern illuminates the presentday (Quaternary) complex tectonic
motion of Japanese Islands. On the other hand, the crustal deformation
observed through geodetic measurements is the sum of the inelastic
deformation as source and the elastic deformation as effect. Representing the
sources by moment density tensor distribution, we created a theory of
physicsbased strain analysis, and developed an inversion method to
separately estimate 3D elastic and inelastic strain fields from GPS data
[2]. In this method, first, we determine the optimum distribution of moment
density tensor from observed GPS array data by using Akaike's information
criterion (AIC). Converting the optimum moment density tensor distribution
with elastic compliance tensor, we can directly obtain 3D inelastic strain
fields. Given the optimum moment density tensor distribution, we can
theoretically compute 3D elastic strain fields. We applied the inversion
method to GPS horizontal velocity data (19962000) in the NiigataKobe
transformation zone, central Japan, and succeeded in estimating 3D elastic
and inelastic strain
rate fields separately. References: 1. Terakawa, T. and M. Matsu'ura
(2008), CMT data inversion using a Bayesian information criterion to estimate
seismogenic stress fields, Geophys.
J. Int., 2.
Noda, A. and M. Matsu'ura (2009), Physicsbased GPS
data inversion to estimate 3D elastic and inelastic strain fields, Geophys. J. Int., submitted. The 2nd SpeakerF Dr. Zhuang, Jiancang
iAssistant
Prof. of ISMj DateF@31 July 2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room 330, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@Gambling with reputation: On scoring
earthquake forecasts and predictions AbstractF@ This
seminar presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the
performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring
procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each
earthquake equally, regardless their magnitudes, this new scoring method
compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Once a forecaster makes a
prediction or forecast, he is assume to have bet some points of his
reputations. The reference model, which plays the role of the house,
determines how many reputations the forecaster can gain if he succeeds,
according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputations bet by the
forecaster if he loses. From the viewpoints of both the reference model and
the forecaster, the rule for rewarding and punishment is fair. This method is
also extended to the continuous cases
of point process models, where the reputations bet by the forecaster
become a continuous mass on the spacetimemagnitude range of interest. We
also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a
renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the
reference model is the Poisson model. The
1st SpeakerF Dr. Harte, David iDirector
of Statistics Research Associates Limited (SRA), New Zealandj DateF@3 July /2009@@@TimeF@15:0016:00 LocationF@Room 330, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics TitleF@Using R for Modelling Marked Point
Processes Indexed by Time AbstractF@ A
unified approach will be described for the fitting and analysis of a large
class of point process models. The models discussed will be those that are
indexed by time and contain additional marks. These include many of the point
process models used for describing earthquake processes, e.g. stress release
model, ETAS model, spatial ETAS model and the linked stress release model. By
exploiting characteristics of their conditional intensity function, the
loglikelihood function can be reduced to a more simple form. This simplified
structure can also be used to calculate the residual process and perform
simulations. The method involves "decomposing" these models into
more elementary parts, and then utilising these
parts in an object orientated manner within the R programming language. The
longer term purpose in such an approach is to lessen programming effort
involved in fitting such models. This should give us a better ability to more
easily make modifications to existing models, and hence test alternative
hypotheses. I will show R programming code for some fitted models to
earthquake data. 



