Updated on 1 August 2011

Research outputsFZHUANG, Jiancang@arrows_8-04  Japanese


Papers (2003`)

·   Zechar J. D., Hardebeck J. L., Michael A. J., Naylor M., Steacy S., Wiemer S., Zhuang J. and the CORSSA working group (revising). Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Seismological Research Letters, revising.

·   Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist, E.L. (submited). Evaluating the static stress change hypothesis with prospective and blind tests. submited.

·   van Stiphout, T., Zhuang, J. and Marsan, D. (revising). Seismicity declustering. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-???, revising.

·   Zhuang, J., Hainzl, S., Werner, M., Harte, D. and Zhou, S. (submitted). Basic models for seismicity, Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-???, submitted.

·   Chu, A. and Zhuang, J. (submitted). Multiple linear regression analyses on the relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, submitted.

·   Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (submitted). Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China, submitted.

·   Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J. (2011). Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.38, L09310, doi:10.1029/2011GL047165, 2011.5.

·   Zhuang, J. (2011). Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.63, No.3, pp.207216, doi:10.5047/eps.2010.12.010, 2011.3.

·   Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Missing links in earthquake clustering models Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.37, L21307, doi:10.1029/2010GL044858, 2010.11

·   Zechar, J.D. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Risk and return: evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.182, pp.1319-1326, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04666.x, 2010.9.

·   Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California?, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.115, B08310, doi:10.1029/2009JB007031, 2010.8.

·   Jiang, C.-S. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese with English abstract), Vol.53(2), pp.305-317, doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.02.001.

·   Zhuang, J. (2010). Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.181, pp.382-390, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04496.x.

·   Zhang, L.-P., Yin, X.-C., Zhuang, J., Zhang, X.-T., Yuan, S. and Liang, N. (2009). Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan Aftershock Sequence, Earthquake, Vol.29(1), pp.60-67 (in Chinese with English abstract).

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Statistical models for earthquake clustering and declustering, Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (in Japanese with English abstract), Vol.57, No.1, pp.179-193.

·   Zhuang, J., Christophosen, A., Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2008). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.

·   Vere-Jones, D. and Zhuang, J. (2008). Distribution of the largest event in the critical epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model, Physical Review E, Vol. 78, 047102, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.78.047102.

·   Yin, X.-C., Zhang, L.-P., Zhang, H.-H., Yin, C., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Peng, K., Wang, H., Song, Z., Yu, H. and Zhuang, J. (2006). LURR's Twenty Years and its Perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 163, pp.2317-2341. doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0135-x.

·   Zhuang, J. (2006). Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and applications in model evaluation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.67, Vol.68, Part4, pp.635-653, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2006.00559.x.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks, Physical Review E, Vol.73, 046134, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.

·   Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006). Space--time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol.413, pp.13-23.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes. Chap.15 (pp.275-290) of Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models, Edited by Baddeley, A., Gregori, P., Mateu, J., Stoica, R. and Stoyan, D., Springer-Verlag, New York, 320 pages.

·   Zhuang, J. (2005). Discussion on "Residual analysis for spatial point processes" by Baddeley, A., Turner, R., Moller, J. and Hazelton, M., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.67, Part 5, pp.656-657, doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x.

·   Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in a region around Beijing, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.162, pp.1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3.

·   Zhuang, J., Chang, C.-P., Ogata, Y. and Chen, Y.-I. (2005). A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using a point process model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No. B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.

 

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Conference talks (2003`)

·   Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Marzocchi, W. (2011). Foreshock phenomena and the Båth law implied by generic earthquake clustering, The 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 26 May 2011 (invited talk).

·   Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Michael, A.J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S. and Zhuang, J. (2011). CORSSA: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis - Status & Outlook - Discussion, The 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 26 May 2011 (invited talk).

·   Nanjo, K.Z., Yokoi, S., Tsuruoka, H., Schorlemmer, D., Falcone, G., Hirata, N., Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2011). Recent Progress of the CSEP Earthquake Forecast Testing Experiment in Japan: Strategy and Preliminary Results of Testing against the Aftershock Sequence of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Seismological Society of America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting, Memphis, U.S.A., 14 April 2011.

·   Zhuang, J. (2010). Purposes and methods of scoring earthquake forecasts, 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 15 December 2010.

·   Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Foreshock statistics in Italy, 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16 December 2010.

·   Michael, A.J., Wiemer, S., Zechar,, J.D., Hardebeck,, Naylor, J.L.M., Zhuang, J. and Steacy, S. (2010). Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA), 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16 December 2010.

·   Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D., Schoenberg, R. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Uncertainties of Parameter Estimates in Earthquake Clustering Models, 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16 December 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y., (2010). Maximum weighted likelihood estimates for spatiotemporal point processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) International Symposium on Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, The Conference Hall of The Kamakura Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kamakura City, Japan, 4 November 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Evaluating performance of earthquake prediction relative to a baseline model through gambling scoring, ERI Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on Seismicity of Japan: Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake Forecasting", Kyoto University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 2 November 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. (2010). A database of stochastic declustered catalogs, 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 28 October 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2010). A reference framework for evaluating significance of earthquake predictions, 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 29 October 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. (2010). The gambling scoring method for forecast evaluations, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, 6 September 2010.

·   Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D, Jiang, C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G. (2010). Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2010.

·   Jiang, C. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunan region, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 24 May 2010.

·   Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D, Jiang, C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G. (2010). Applications of the gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2010, Austria Center Vienna (ACV), Vienna, Austria, 4 May 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. (2010). ETAS model submitted for the CSEP-Japan experiment and recent progress on related researches, Meeting of Earthquake Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 17 March 2010.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). A new scoring method for evaluating the performance of earthquake forecasts and predictions, 2009 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16  December 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Modelling earthquake clustering and declustering, INGV seminar, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, 13 November 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Scoring earthquake predictions and forecasts, INGV seminar, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, 18 November 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Constructing point process models in data analysis, INGV seminar, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, 24 November 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). A new scoring method for earthquake predictions and forecasts, 2009 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Yoshida Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, 22 October 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Weighted likelihoods and maximum local likelihood estimates for space-time point processes, The 2009 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting, Kyotanabe Campus, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe City, Japan, 9 September 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Online forecasting and offline optimization: daily earthquake forecasts by using a model that requires heavy computation, ERI International Symposium on Toward Constructing Earthquake Forecast Systems for Japan, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, 27 May 2009 (invited talk).

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Gambling scores for evaluating earthquake forecasts and predictions, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2009, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 20 May 2009.

·   Zhuang, J. (2009). Using Gambling scores for evaulating performance of earthquake predictions/forecasts, The 6th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Granlibakken Conference Center, Lake Tahoe, CA, U.S.A., 12-16 April 2009.

·   Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K. and Jackson, D.D. (2008). Simulation studies on the differences between spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock probabilities, American Geophysical Union fall meeting 2008, Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 17 December 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. (2008). Foreshocks, mainshocks and afershocks: Stochastic models for seimsicity patterns, Invited Seminar at Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China. 4 December 2008 (invited talk).

·   Zhuang, J. (2008). Statistical Modeling of Earthquake Clusters and Declustering, 12th Conferences of Seismological Society of China, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China, 3 December 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Local likelihood estimates for point processes with applications in detecting spatial changes of seismicity in Japan, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan, Naha City, Japan, 28 November 2008.

·   Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2008). Model dependent differences between background and triggered earthquakes and their influences on foreshock probabilities, 7th General Assembly of Asian Seismological Commission and Seismological Society of Japan, 2008 Fall meeting, Tsukuba International Congress Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba, 27 November 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Local likelihood ETAS models for the seismicity in the Italian Region, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia WorkshopuThe Italian testing region for earthquake forecasting experiments within CSEPv, Rome, Italy, 28 October 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Using weighted likelihood estimates to detect spatial seismicity changes, Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A Multi-Scale System, Obergurgl University Centre, Obergurgl, Austria, 18-23 October 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. (2008). Weighted likelihoods and maximum local likelihood estimates for point processes, The 2008 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (76th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society), Keio University, Yokohama City, Japan, 10 September 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Space-time ETAS model and stochastic declustering, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, India, 13 August 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. and Vere-Jones, D. (2008). Asymptotic properties of a marked branching process and interpretation to a empirical law in seismology, The 7th World Congress in Probability and Statistics, National University of Singapore, Republic of Singapore, 14-19 July 2008.

·   Zhuang, J. (2008). Detecting space-time seismicity variation by using maximizing local likelihood and the ETAS model, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2008, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 25 May 2008.

·   Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson D.D. (UCLA) (2008). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes, Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NewZealand, 21 February 2008 (invited talk).

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2007). Stochastic declustering: visualizing of the family trees in earthquake catalogs with uncertainty, American Geophysical Union 2007 fall meeting, Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 10 December 2007 (invited talk).

·   Wang, Q., Jackson, D. and Zhuang, J. (2007). Is Gutenberg-Richter b value uniform in California and are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California?, American Geophysical Union 2007 fall meeting, Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 10 December 2007.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). A solution to the filtering problem on Neyman-Scott point processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Space-time Data, Okayama International Center, Okayama City, Japan, 30 November 2007.

·   Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D.D. (2007). Difference between background and triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities, Cooperative Research meeting on Seismicity Models and Earthquake Probabilities, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan, 9 November 2007.

·   Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Christophersen, A. and Jackson, D.D. (2007). Differences between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes, 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Sendai International Center, Sendai, Japan, 26 October 2007.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2007). Forecasting performance of the ETAS model in Japan and California : A comparison, 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Sendai International Center, Sendai, Japan, 25 October 2007.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Likelihood based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott processes, The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (75th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society), Kobe University, Kobe City, Japan, 8 September 2007.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Probability distributions associated foreshocks implied by clustering models for earthquake occurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International Convention Center, Beijing, China, 24 July 2006.

·   Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2006). Statistical modelling (tests) of the relationship between precursory phenomena and earthquake ocurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International Convention Center, Beijing, China, 27 July 2006.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region, 2006 International Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, National Central University, Taiwan, 6 March 2006.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster law, 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 12 January 2006.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). The largest events in earthquake clusters and their relationship to foreshocks, American Geophysical Union 2005 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 8 December 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). A study on the discrimination of foreshocks and other types of earthquakes by using stochastic reconstruction, The Seismological Society of Japan 2005 fall meeting, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan, 19 October 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. (2005). Second-order residual analysis of space-time point processes, 73rd annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Hiroshima Prince Hotel, Hiroshima City, Japan, 15 September 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005).  Analyzing foreshock features by using stochastic reconstruction, The 2005 Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 26 May 2005.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by stochastic reconstruction -- foreshocks, American Geophysical Union 2004 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 14 December 2004.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquake occurrences, Space-time statistical analysis; theory and applications, Kagoshima, Japan, 3-6 November 2004.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Some features of background and clustering seismicity resolved by using stochastic declustering, 2004 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyusyu University, Fukuoka, Japan, 11 October 2004.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquake occurrences, 72th annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Fuji University, Hanamaki City, Japan, 5 September 2004.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Stochastic reconstruction of clustering features of earthquakes, The 2004 Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan, 10 May 2004.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes, International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its Applications (SPPA), Castellon Spain, 8 April 2004 (invited talk).

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction, Science of Modeling The 30th Anniversary of the Information Criterion (AIC) , Pacifico Yokohama, Japan, 15-16 December 2003.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Testing of hypotheses associated earthquake clustering features by using the stochastic reconstruction method, American Geophysical Union 2003 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 10 December 2003.

·   Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics associated with earthquake clusters, 71st annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society, Meijo University, Nagoya, Japan, 5 September 2003.

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics associated with earthquake clusters, workshop on Point Processes - Theory and Applications, the Banff International Research Station for Mathematical Innovation and Discovery (BIRS), Banff Centre, Banff, Canada, 22 June 2003 (invited talk).

·   Zhuang, J., Ogata1, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ma, L., Chen, Z., and Xiao, W. (2003). Statistical confirmation and evaluation of a relationship between excitation of the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals and magnitude M>4 earthquakes in a 300 km radius region around Beijing, 3rd International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, 6 May 2003.

·   Zhuang, J. (2003). Graphical user interface framework for Statistical Seismology Library (SSLIB), 3rd International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, 7 May 2003.

 


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