ISM International Symposium
on Frontiers of Time Series Modeling

The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
TokyoCJapan
February 7-9C2000

Program

February 7, Monday

9:00 - 9:50
Registration
9:50 - 10:00
Opening
10:00 - 12:00
Session 1
Chair: Yoshinori Kawasaki

Optimal filtering for partial non-Gaussian state space models - computation and theoretical bounds
Niclas Bergman, Arnaud Doucet, Neil Gordon

Analysis of small count time series with time varying frequency component
Tomoyuki Higuchi

Methodology for Monte Carlo smoothing with application to time-varying autoregressions
Simon Godsill, Arnaud Doucet, Mike West

12:00 - 13:30
Lunch

13:30 - 15:30
Session 2
Chair: Kunio Tanabe

Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State Space Modeling Using Sampling Techniques
Hisashi Tanizaki

Estimation of exponential family time series models using importance sampling
Siem Jan Koopman

Likelihood maximization for nonlinear time series models using simulated annealing
Piet de Jong

15:30 - 16:00
Coffee Break

16:00 - 18:00
Session 3
Chair: Hajime Wago

A Bayesian analysis of switching Gaussian state space models
Sylvia Frü wirth-Schnatter

Self-organization in state space modeling
Genshiro Kitagawa

Bayesian semiparametric regression analysis of multicategorical time-space data
Ludwig Fahrmeir, Stefan Lang

February 8, Tuesday
10:00 - 12:00
Session 4
Chair: Junji Nakano

Asymptotics for wavelet based estimates of piecewise smooth regression for stationary time series
Young K. Truong, Prakash N. Patil

Analyzing brain responses using nonlinear time series
Pedro A. Valdes-Sosa

Web quantlets for time series analysis
Wolfgang Härdle, Torsten Kleinow, Rolf Tschernig

12:00 - 13:30
Lunch

13:30 - 15:10
Poster session presentation
Chair: Yoshiyasu Tamura

15:10 - 15:30
Coffee Break

15:30 - 16:30
Special Invited Talk
Chair:

Golf swing motion analysis; An example of constructive approach to the analysis and
control of a highly complex and nonlinear system
Hirotugu Akaike

16:30 - 18:00
Poster Session

19:00 - 21:00
Banquet
R. Shimizu (Speach)
H. Akaike (Toast)

February 9, Wednesday
10:00 - 12:00
Session 5
Chair: Yoshihiro Yajima

The Simultaneous Switching Autoregressive Model
Naoto Kunitomo, Seisho Sato

Heavy-tailed and Non-linear Continuous-time ARMA Models for Financial Time Series
Peter J. Brockwell

LAN based asymptotic theory for time series
Masanobu Taniguchi

12:00 - 13:30
Lunch

13:30 - 15:30
Session 6
Chair: Shi

An Innovation Approach to non-Gaussian Time Series Analysis
Tohru Ozaki, Mitsunori Iino

Panels of intercorrelated time series: exploring linear and nonlinear models
Dag Tjostheim

Non-Gaussian OU based models and some of their uses in financial economics
Ole E.Barndorff-Nielsen, Neil Shephard

15:30 - 16:00
Coffee Break

16:00 - 17:20
Session 7
Chair: Makio Ishiguro

Long memory and chaotic systems
Dominique Guegan

Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data by Non- linear Autoregressive Model
Takashi Yanagawa, Kaoru Fueda, Koji Yonemoto

17:20 - 17:30
Closing

Posters

P001
Estimating Functions for Nonlinear Time Series Models
Ajay Chandra
P002
Sequential Estimation For A Functional Of The Spectral Density Of A Gaussian Stationary Process
Takayuki Shiohama
P003
Estimation and Identification of Time Series Models based on Self-concluding Statistical Inference
Xing-Qi Jiang, Genshiro Kitagawa
P004
State Space Modeling for Individual Bond Prices
Hiroshi Tsuda
P005
Estimation of Multifactor Term Structure Model on Japanese Interest Rates by Using Monte Carlo Filter
Akihiko Takahashi, Seisho Sato
P006
A time series analysis package for visual operations and distributed computing
Yoshikazu Yamamoto, Junji Nakano
P007
A comparison of non-linear non-parametric models for epilepsy data
Fumikazu Miwakeichi, Ruben Ramirez-Padron, Pedro A. Valdes Sosa, Tohru Ozaki
P008
The entropy trajectory: A perspective to classify complex systems
Tomoaki Suzudo
P009
Time Series of Sliding Motion Described by Stochastic Differential Equation.
Masaru Furukawa, Hiroaki Hara, Yuichi Tsuzuki, Junji Koyama
P010
Characterization of Time Series in Queue Described by Length of Time Curve
Hisashi Sato, Nobutoshi Ikeda, Hiroaki Hara
P011
A Method of Prediction for Nonlinear Time Series Described by Stochastic Potentials
Yoshinori Satoh, Nobutoshi Ikeda, Hiroaki Hara
P012
Detection and Quantitative Description of Nonstationarity in Chaotic Time Series
Andreas Galka
P013
Markov Switching Model of Foreign Exchange Rates
Morikazu Hakamata
P014
Risk analysis of loan with Prepayment
Jun Kataoka
P015
Boltzmann Model for Analysis of Stochastic Phenomena in Financial Problems
Yuji Uenohara, Toru Onodera, Tetsuo Tamaoki, Ritsuo Yoshioka, Motohiko Ohnishi
P016
Arrival time fluctuation of seismic waves in random heterogeneous media
Chadaram Sivaji, Osamu Nishizawa, Genshiro Kitagawa, Yo Fukushima, Ziqiu Xue
P017
A Statistical System Jasp and its Interface to TIMSAC programs
Takeshi Fujiwara, Junji Nakano, Yoshikazu Yamamoto, Ikunori Kobayashi
P018
Estimating and reducing forecast errors for data assimilation
Xiaogu Zheng, Masahide Kimoto, Tohru Ozaki
P019
Nonstationary spectral peak estimation based on Monte Carlo Filter
Norikazu Ikoma
P020
A nonlinear model for financial dynamics
Mitsunori Iino, Tohru Ozaki
P021
A Hierarchical Bayesian Scheme for Reconstruction and Prediction of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems
Takashi Matsumoto, Motoki Saito, Junjiro Sugi, Yoshinori Nakajima
P022
Understand nonlinear time series analysis methodologies from perspective of systems monitoring
Zhaoyun Shi, Yoshiyasu Tamura, Tohru Ozaki
P023
Effects of time correlation of multiplicative noise in stochastic equation
Nobutoshi Ikeda, Yuichi Tsuzuki, Hiroaki Hara
P024
Bayesian inference on gradual switching GARCH models : Gibbs sampling approach
Hajime Wago
P025
A Bayesian Analysis on the Historical Behaviour of Unmet Need for Contraception in Bangladesh
Syeda Shahanara Huq, Makio Ishiguro
P026
Modelling Trends of Non-Stationary Time Series for Estimating Dynamic Linear Relationship Among Them
Md. Moshiur Rahman, Makio Ishiguro
P027
Stationarity Test for Data with Missing Observations
Haruhisa Nishino
P028
A nonlinear feedback time series model applied to heartbeat system analysis
Hiroko Kato, Tohru Ozaki
P029
Contingency of arm-joint movements in Okinawan dance
Kiyoshi Hoshino
P030
Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Metabolic Networks using E-CELL Simulation Environment
Motohiro Yoneda, Yusuke Saito, Masayuki Okayama, Kouichi Takahashi, Masaru Tomita
P031
Performance analysis of an adaptive algorithm for minor component analysis
Hideaki Sakai, Shigeyuki Miyagi, Kouji Minamiyama
P032
A Model Selection Approach to Detect Seasonal Unit Roots
Yoshinori Kawasaki and Philip Hans Franses