統計数理研究所

Abstract: Much ecological theory is based on models that are simple to write down and simulate from, but can yield very complicated dynamics. This talk suggests that such near chaotic dynamics provide a case where it is sensible to abandon conventional likelihood or Bayesian approaches in favor of inference based on carefully chosen summary statistics. The statistics should be designed to avoid the irregularity produced by highly non-linear dynamics, while still being informative about the dynamic structure of the system being modeled. A simple approach to inference is proposed, which requires only the ability to simulate from the model. The approach has links to ABC, generalized method of moments, indirect inference and similar approaches, but requires rather little tuning.