Updated on 1 August 2011
Research outputs:ZHUANG,
Jiancang Japanese
Papers (2003〜)
·
Zechar J. D., Hardebeck J. L., Michael A. J., Naylor M., Steacy S., Wiemer S., Zhuang J. and the CORSSA working group
(revising). Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis, Seismological Research Letters,
revising.
·
Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist,
E.L. (submited). Evaluating the
static stress change hypothesis with prospective and blind tests. submited.
·
van Stiphout,
T., Zhuang, J. and Marsan,
D. (revising). Seismicity declustering.
Community Online Resource for Statistical
Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-???, revising.
·
Zhuang, J., Hainzl,
S., Werner, M., Harte, D. and Zhou, S. (submitted). Basic models for
seismicity, Community Online Resource for
Statistical Seismicity Analysis, doi:10.5078/corssa-???, submitted.
·
Chu, A. and Zhuang,
J. (submitted). Multiple linear regression analyses on the relationships
among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface
displacement, submitted.
·
Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C.
(submitted). Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China, submitted.
·
Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J. (2011). Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California,
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.38,
L09310, doi:10.1029/2011GL047165, 2011.5.
·
Zhuang, J. (2011). Next-day
earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model, Earth, Planets and Space, Vol.63, No.3,
pp.207–216,
doi:10.5047/eps.2010.12.010, 2011.3.
·
Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Missing links in
earthquake clustering models Geophysical
Research Letters, Vol.37, L21307, doi:10.1029/2010GL044858,
2010.11
·
Zechar, J.D. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Risk and return:
evaluating Reverse Tracing of Precursors earthquake predictions, Geophysical Journal International,
Vol.182, pp.1319-1326, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04666.x, 2010.9.
·
Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Are spontaneous
earthquakes stationary in California?, Journal of
Geophysical Research, Vol.115, B08310, doi:10.1029/2009JB007031, 2010.8.
·
Jiang, C.-S. and
Zhuang, J. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential
source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in
Chinese with English abstract), Vol.53(2), pp.305-317,
doi:10.3969/j.issn.001-5733.2010.02.001.
·
Zhuang, J. (2010). Gambling scores for
earthquake predictions and forecasts, Geophysical
Journal International, Vol.181, pp.382-390,
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04496.x.
·
Zhang, L.-P., Yin, X.-C., Zhuang, J., Zhang, X.-T., Yuan, S. and Liang,
N. (2009). Load/Unload Response Ratio Analysis of the Wenchuan
Aftershock Sequence, Earthquake, Vol.29(1), pp.60-67
(in Chinese with English abstract).
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Statistical models for
earthquake clustering and declustering, Proceeding of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (in Japanese
with English abstract), Vol.57, No.1, pp.179-193.
·
Zhuang, J., Christophosen, A.,
Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2008). Differences between spontaneous and
triggered earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities, Journal of Geophysical Research,
Vol.113, B11302, doi:10.1029/2008JB005579.
·
Vere-Jones, D. and Zhuang, J.
(2008). Distribution of the
largest event in the critical epidemic-type aftershock-sequence model, Physical Review E, Vol. 78, 047102, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.78.047102.
·
Yin, X.-C., Zhang, L.-P., Zhang,
H.-H., Yin, C., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Peng, K., Wang, H., Song, Z., Yu, H. and Zhuang,
J. (2006). LURR's Twenty Years and its Perspective. Pure and Applied Geophysics,
163, pp.2317-2341. doi:10.1007/s00024-006-0135-x.
·
Zhuang, J. (2006). Second-order residual analysis of spatiotemporal point processes and
applications in model evaluation, Journal
of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.67, Vol.68, Part4,
pp.635-653, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9868.2006.00559.x.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the probability distribution
associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their
implications to foreshocks, Physical
Review E, Vol.73, 046134, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.73.046134.
·
Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J.
(2006). Space--time ETAS models and an improved
extension, Tectonophysics,
Vol.413, pp.13-23.
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2005). Diagnostic analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes.
Chap.15 (pp.275-290) of Case Studies in Spatial Point Process Models, Edited by
Baddeley, A., Gregori, P., Mateu, J., Stoica, R. and Stoyan, D.,
Springer-Verlag, New York, 320 pages.
·
Zhuang, J. (2005). Discussion on "Residual analysis for
spatial point processes" by Baddeley, A., Turner, R., Moller, J. and
Hazelton, M., Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.67, Part 5, pp.656-657,
doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00519.x.
·
Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D.,
Guan, H., Ogata, Y. and Ma, L. (2005). Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency
electric field in a region around Beijing,
Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.162,
pp.1367-1396, doi:10.1007/s00024-004-2674-3.
·
Zhuang, J., Chang, C.-P., Ogata,
Y. and Chen, Y.-I. (2005). A
study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using
a point process model, Journal
of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, B05S18, doi:10.1029/2004JB003157.
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic
reconstruction, Journal of
Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No. B5, B05301, doi:10.1029/2003JB002879.
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Conference talks (2003〜)
·
Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones,
D., Ogata, Y. and Marzocchi, W. (2011). Foreshock phenomena
and the Båth law implied by
generic earthquake clustering, The 7th International Workshop on Statistical
Seismology, Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 26 May
2011 (invited talk).
·
Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Michael, A.J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S. and Zhuang, J. (2011). CORSSA: Community
Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis - Status & Outlook -
Discussion, The 7th International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece, 26 May
2011 (invited talk).
·
Nanjo, K.Z., Yokoi, S., Tsuruoka,
H., Schorlemmer, D., Falcone,
G., Hirata, N., Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J.
(2011). Recent Progress of the CSEP Earthquake Forecast Testing Experiment in Japan:
Strategy and Preliminary Results of Testing against the Aftershock Sequence of
the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Seismological Society of
America (SSA) 2011 Annual Meeting, Memphis, U.S.A., 14 April 2011.
·
Zhuang, J. (2010). Purposes and methods of scoring earthquake forecasts, 2010 Fall
Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone
Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 15 December 2010.
·
Marzocchi, W. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Foreshock statistics
in Italy, 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16
December 2010.
·
Michael, A.J., Wiemer, S.,
Zechar,, J.D., Hardebeck,, Naylor, J.L.M., Zhuang,
J. and Steacy, S. (2010). Building the Community
Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA), 2010 Fall Meeting
of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone
Convention Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16 December
2010.
·
Wang, Q., Jackson, D.D.,
Schoenberg, R. and Zhuang, J. (2010). Uncertainties of
Parameter Estimates in Earthquake Clustering Models, 2010 Fall Meeting of the
American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Convention
Center, San Francisco, U.S.A., 16 December 2010.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y.,
(2010). Maximum weighted likelihood estimates for spatiotemporal point
processes, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) International Symposium on
Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data, The
Conference Hall of The Kamakura Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Kamakura
City, Japan, 4 November 2010.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2010). Evaluating
performance of earthquake prediction relative to a baseline model through
gambling scoring, ERI Workshop on "Earthquake Forecast Systems Based on
Seismicity of Japan: Toward Constructing Base-line Models of Earthquake
Forecasting", Kyoto University, Uji Campus, Uji Obaku Plaza, Uji City, Kyoto, Japan, 2 November 2010.
·
Zhuang, J. (2010). A database of stochastic declustered
catalogs, 2010 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
International Conference Center Hiroshima, Hiroshima City, Japan, 28 October
2010.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2010). A reference framework
for evaluating significance of earthquake predictions, 2010 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, International Conference Center Hiroshima,
Hiroshima City, Japan, 29 October 2010.
·
Zhuang, J. (2010). The gambling scoring method for forecast evaluations, The 2010 Japanese Joint Statistical
Meeting, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, 6
September 2010.
·
Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D, Jiang,
C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G. (2010). Applications of the
gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan,
24 May 2010.
·
Jiang, C. and Zhuang,
J. (2010). Evaluation of background seismicity and potential
source zones of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunan
region, Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2010, Makuhari Messe International
Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 24 May 2010.
·
Zhuang, J., Zechar, J.D, Jiang,
C., Console, R., Murru, M. and Falcone, G. (2010). Applications of the
gambling score in evaluating earthquake predictions and forecasts, European
Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2010, Austria Center Vienna (ACV), Vienna, Austria,
4 May 2010.
·
Zhuang, J. (2010). ETAS model submitted for
the CSEP-Japan experiment and recent progress on related researches, Meeting of Earthquake
Forecast System based on Seismicity of Japan, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 17
March 2010.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). A new scoring method for
evaluating the performance of earthquake forecasts and predictions, 2009 Fall
Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), Moscone Center, San Francisco,
U.S.A., 16 December 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Modelling
earthquake clustering and declustering, INGV seminar, INGV-Istituto Nazionale
di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, 13 November 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Scoring
earthquake predictions and forecasts, INGV seminar, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy, 18 November 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Constructing point
process models in data analysis, INGV seminar, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome,
Italy, 24
November 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). A new
scoring method for earthquake predictions and forecasts, 2009 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan,
Yoshida Campus, Kyoto University, Kyoto,
Japan, 22 October 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Weighted likelihoods and
maximum local likelihood estimates for space-time point processes, The 2009 Japanese
Joint Statistical Meeting, Kyotanabe Campus, Doshisha
University, Kyotanabe City, Japan,
9 September 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Online forecasting and
offline optimization: daily earthquake forecasts by using a model that requires
heavy computation, ERI International Symposium on Toward Constructing
Earthquake Forecast Systems for Japan, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo,
Tokyo, Japan, 27
May 2009 (invited talk).
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Gambling
scores for evaluating earthquake forecasts and predictions, Japan Geoscience
Union Meeting 2009, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City,
Japan, 20 May 2009.
·
Zhuang, J. (2009). Using
Gambling scores for evaulating performance of earthquake predictions/forecasts,
The 6th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Granlibakken
Conference Center, Lake Tahoe, CA, U.S.A., 12-16 April 2009.
·
Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D.,
Ogata, Y., Christophersen, A., Savage, M.K. and Jackson, D.D. (2008). Simulation studies on
the differences between spontaneous and triggered seismicity and on foreshock
probabilities, American Geophysical Union fall meeting 2008, Moscone Center,
San Francisco, U.S.A., 17 December 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. (2008). Foreshocks, mainshocks
and afershocks: Stochastic models for seimsicity patterns, Invited Seminar at Institute of Geophysics,
China Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China. 4
December 2008 (invited talk).
·
Zhuang, J. (2008). Statistical Modeling of
Earthquake Clusters and Declustering, 12th Conferences of Seismological Society
of China, Institute of Geophysics, China
Earthquake Administration, Beijing,
China, 3
December 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Local likelihood
estimates for point processes with applications in detecting spatial changes of
seismicity in Japan,
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and
Analysis of Space-time Data, Okinawaseinenkaikan, Naha City, Japan,
28 November 2008.
·
Zhuang, J., Christophersen, A.,
Savage, M.K., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2008). Model dependent
differences between background and triggered earthquakes and their influences
on foreshock probabilities, 7th General Assembly of Asian Seismological
Commission and Seismological Society of Japan, 2008 Fall meeting, Tsukuba
International Congress Center (EPOCHAL TSUKUBA), Tsukuba, 27 November 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Local likelihood ETAS
models for the seismicity in the Italian Region, INGV-Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia Workshop「The Italian testing region for earthquake
forecasting experiments within CSEP」, Rome, Italy, 28 October 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Using weighted
likelihood estimates to detect spatial seismicity changes, Challenges In Earthquake Dynamics: Observing And Modelling A
Multi-Scale System, Obergurgl University Centre, Obergurgl, Austria,
18-23 October 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. (2008). Weighted likelihoods and
maximum local likelihood estimates for point processes, The
2008 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (76th
annual meeting of the Japan Statistical Society), Keio University, Yokohama City, Japan, 10 September 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2008). Space-time
ETAS model and stochastic declustering, National Geophysical Research
Institute, Hyderabad, India, 13 August 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. and Vere-Jones, D. (2008). Asymptotic properties
of a marked branching process and interpretation to a
empirical law in seismology, The 7th World Congress in Probability and
Statistics, National University of Singapore, Republic
of Singapore, 14-19 July 2008.
·
Zhuang, J. (2008). Detecting space-time seismicity
variation by using maximizing local likelihood and the ETAS model, Japan
Geoscience Union Meeting 2008, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan,
25 May 2008.
·
Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K.,
Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Jackson D.D. (UCLA) (2008). Differences between
spontaneous and triggered earthquakes, Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and
Earthquake Forecasting, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NewZealand, 21 February 2008
(invited talk).
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones, D. (2007). Stochastic
declustering: visualizing of the family trees in earthquake catalogs with
uncertainty, American Geophysical Union 2007 fall meeting, Moscone Center,
San Francisco, USA, 10 December 2007 (invited
talk).
·
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. and Zhuang,
J. (2007). Is Gutenberg-Richter b value
uniform in California and are spontaneous
earthquakes stationary in California?,
American Geophysical
Union 2007 fall meeting, Moscone Center, San Francisco, USA, 10 December 2007.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). A
solution to the filtering problem on Neyman-Scott point processes, Grant-in-Aid
for Scientific Research (A) Symposium on Statistical Modeling and Analysis of
Space-time Data, Okayama International Center, Okayama
City, Japan, 30 November 2007.
· Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K.,
Christophersen, A., Vere-Jones D., Ogata Y. and Jackson D.D. (2007). Difference between background and triggered
earthquakes: their influences on foreshock probabilities, Cooperative Research
meeting on Seismicity Models and Earthquake Probabilities, Institute of Statistical
Mathematics, Tokyo,
Japan, 9
November 2007.
·
Zhuang, J., Savage, M.K., Ogata,
Y., Vere-Jones, D., Christophersen, A. and Jackson, D.D. (2007). Differences
between spontaneous and triggered earthquakes, 2007 Fall Meeting of the
Seismological Society of Japan, Sendai International Center, Sendai, Japan, 26
October 2007.
· Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Jackson, D.D. (2007). Forecasting performance of the ETAS model in Japan and California : A
comparison, 2007 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Sendai International
Center, Sendai, Japan,
25 October 2007.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2007). Likelihood based detection of cluster centers for Neyman-Scott
processes, The 2007 Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting (75th annual meeting of
the Japan Statistical Society), Kobe University, Kobe
City, Japan,
8 September 2007.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Probability distributions associated
foreshocks implied by clustering models for earthquake occurrences, 2006
Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International Convention
Center, Beijing, China, 24 July 2006.
· Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D.,
Ogata, Y., Ma, L. and Guan, H. (2006). Statistical modelling (tests) of the relationship between precursory
phenomena and earthquake ocurrences, 2006 Western Pacific Geophysics Meeting, Beijing International
Convention Center, Beijing, China, 27 July 2006.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Background and clustering seismicity in the
Taiwan region, 2006 International Workshop on Earthquake Precursor, National Central
University, Taiwan, 6 March 2006.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2006). Properties of the
probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster
law, 4th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, The Graduate
University for Advanced Studies, Shonan Village campus, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, 12 January 2006.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). The largest events in
earthquake clusters and their relationship to foreshocks, American Geophysical
Union 2005 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA,
8 December 2005.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). A study on the discrimination of foreshocks
and other types of earthquakes by using stochastic reconstruction, The Seismological
Society of Japan 2005 fall meeting, Hokkaido
University, Sapporo, Japan,
19 October 2005.
· Zhuang, J. (2005). Second-order residual analysis of space-time point processes, 73rd annual meeting of the
Japan Statistical Society, Hiroshima Prince Hotel,
Hiroshima City, Japan, 15 September 2005.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2005). Analyzing foreshock features by using
stochastic reconstruction, The 2005 Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint
Meeting, Makuhari Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba City, Japan,
26 May 2005.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Analyzing earthquake
clustering features by stochastic reconstruction -- foreshocks, American
Geophysical Union 2004 fall meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 14 December 2004.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching
processes for earthquake occurrences, Space-time statistical analysis; theory and
applications, Kagoshima, Japan, 3-6 November 2004.
·
Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Some features of
background and clustering seismicity resolved by using stochastic declustering,
2004 Fall Meeting of the Seismological Society of Japan, Kyusyu University,
Fukuoka, Japan, 11 October 2004.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2004). Residual analysis of space-time branching processes
for earthquake occurrences, 72th annual meeting of the Japan
Statistical Society, Fuji University, Hanamaki City, Japan, 5 September 2004.
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Stochastic reconstruction of clustering features of
earthquakes, The 2004 Japan Earth and Planetary Science Joint Meeting, Makuhari
Messe International Conference Hall, Chiba
City, Japan,
10 May 2004.
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Diagnostic
analysis of space-time branching processes for earthquakes,
International Conference on Spatial Point Process Modelling and its
Applications (SPPA), Castellon Spain,
8 April 2004 (invited talk).
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones,
D. (2003). Analyzing earthquake clustering
features by using stochastic reconstruction, Science of Modeling — The 30th Anniversary of the
Information Criterion (AIC) —, Pacifico Yokohama, Japan, 15-16 December 2003.
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and Vere-Jones,
D. (2003). Testing of hypotheses associated earthquake clustering features by using
the stochastic reconstruction method, American Geophysical Union 2003 fall
meeting, Moscone Convention Center West, San Francisco, USA, 10 December 2003.
· Zhuang, J. and Ogata, Y. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics
associated with earthquake clusters, 71st annual meeting of the Japan
Statistical Society, Meijo University, Nagoya, Japan, 5 September 2003.
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. and
Vere-Jones, D. (2003). Stochastic reconstruction of characteristics
associated with earthquake clusters, workshop on Point Processes - Theory and
Applications, the Banff International Research Station for Mathematical
Innovation and Discovery (BIRS), Banff Centre, Banff, Canada,
22 June 2003 (invited talk).
·
Zhuang, J., Ogata1, Y.,
Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ma, L., Chen, Z., and Xiao, W. (2003). Statistical
confirmation and evaluation of a relationship between excitation of the
ultra-low frequency ground electric signals and magnitude M>4 earthquakes in
a 300 km radius region around Beijing, 3rd International Workshop on
Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, 6 May 2003.
·
Zhuang, J. (2003). Graphical
user interface framework for Statistical Seismology Library (SSLIB), 3rd
International Workshop on Statistical Seismology, Juriquilla, Mexico, 7 May
2003.
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