Yosihiko OGATA
Professor Emeritus
Degree: Doctor of Engineering, Osaka Univ., 1980, Title of Doctoral Thesis: Contributions to the Statistical Analysis of Series of Events by the Likelihood Procedure.
Employment: 1973-1984, Research Scientist, Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM)
1985-1994, Associate Professor ISM
1994-2005, Professor ISM
1998-2000, Director of the Center for Development of Statistical Computing, ISM
2000-2002, Director of Department of Statistical Methodology, ISM
2002-2003, Vice Dean, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced Studies@(concurrent)
2004-2008, Director of Deaprtment of Statistical Science, Graduate University of Advanced Studies (concurrent)
2005-2011, Professor, Department of Statistical Modeling; Prediction and Knowledge Discovery Research Center, ISM.
2012-present, Professor Emeritus, ISM.
Honors &
Japan Statistical Society Award for 2002
Statistical Science, Statistical Seismology
Statistical analysis for point processes, Statistical seismology, Spatial statistics, and Bayesian modelling and its applications

Selected Papers
(1) Ogata, Y. (2007): Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.112, B10301, doi:10.1029/2006JB004697.
(2) Ogata, Y. (2006): Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan, Tectonophysics, Vol.424, 291-306, doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038.
(3) Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (2006): Immediate and updated forecasting of aftershock hazard, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.33, No.10, L10305, doi:10.1029/2006GL025888.
(4) Ogata, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2006): Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, 13-23.
(5) Ogata, Y. (2006): Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0 off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the ETAS model, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.33, No.1, L01303, doi:10.1029/2005GL024405.
(6) Ogata, Y. (2005): Synchronous seismicity changes in and around the northern Japan preceding the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B08305, doi:10.1029/2004JB003323.
(7) Ogata, Y. (2005): Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.110, No.B5, B05S06, doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.
(8) Ogata, Y. (2004): Seismicity quiescence and activation in western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great earthquakes near the Nankai trough, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B4, B04305, doi:10.1029/2003JB002634.
(9) Ogata, Y. (2004): Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.109, No.B3, B03308, doi:10.1029/2003JB002621.(Correction to gSpace-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changesh, J. Geophys. Res., Vol.109, No.B3, B06308, doi:10.1029/2004JB003123.)
(10) Ogata, Y., Katsura, K. and Tanemura, M. (2003): Modelling heterogeneous space-time occurrences of earthquake and its residual analysis, Applied Statistics(Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C), Vol.52, Part4, 499-509.
(11) Ogata, Y., Jones, L. M. and Toda, S. (2003): When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.108, No.B6, 2318, doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (ESE1-12).
(12) Ogata, Y. (2001): Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.106, No.B5, 8729-8744.
(13) Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Keiding, N., Holst, C. and Green, A. (2000): Empirical Bayes age-period-cohort analysis of retrospective incidence data, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Vol.27, No.3, 415-432.
(14) Ogata, Y. (1999): Seismicity analysis through point-process modeling: A review, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol.155, 471-507.
(15) Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.50, No.2, 379-402.
(16) Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K. (1993): Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues, Geophysical Journal International, Vol.113, 727-738.
(17) Ogata, Y. (1992): Detection of precursory relative quiescence before great earthquakes through a statistical model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.97, 19845-19871.
(18) Ogata, Y. (1989): A Monte Carlo method for high dimensional integration, Numerische Mathematik, Vol.55, 137-157.
(19) Ogata, Y. (1988): Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.83, No.401, Applications, 9-27.
(20) Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1985): Estimation of interaction potentials of marked spatial point patterns through the maximum likelihood method, Biometrics, Vol.41, 421-433.
(21) Ogata, Y. and Shimazaki, K. (1984): Transition from aftershock to normal activity, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.74, No.5, 1757-1765.
(22) Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1984): Likelihood analysis of spatial point patterns, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.46, No.3, 496-518.
(23) Ogata, Y. (1983): Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihood procedure, Journal of Physics of the Earth, Vol.31, 115-124.
(24) Ogata, Y. and Akaike, H. (1982): On linear intensity models for mixed doubly stochastic Poisson and self-exciting point processes, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol.44, No.1, 102-107.
(25) Ogata, Y. and Tanemura, M. (1981): Estimation of interaction potentials of spatial point patterns through the maximum likelihood procedure, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.33, B, 315-338.
(26) Ogata, Y. (1981): On Lewis' simulation method for point processes, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, Vol.IT-27, No.1, Jan., 23-31.
(27) Ogata, Y. (1978): The asymptotic behaviour of maximum likelihood estimators for stationary point processes, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Vol.30, A, 243-261.

Membership of Academic Societies
International Statistical Institute (ISI, elected), Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability (BSMSP), American Geophysical Union, Statistical Society of Japan, Seismological Society of Japan, Mathematical Society of Japan

Professional Services
Member of Committees:
Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, Geographical Survey Institute, Ministry of Land, Infrastracture and Transport, Japan, 2001-2009;
Council of Graduate University of Advanced Studies, 2002-2008.
Technical Researcher, Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology, Japan, 2001-2008.