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Environmental DNA (eDNA) is originally shed from the bodies of organisms in the environment. Recent studies in streams and ponds have reported that the distribution and biomass of aquatic organisms can be estimated by detection and quantification of eDNA. In more open systems such as seas, it is not evident whether eDNA can represent the distribution and biomass of aquatic organisms because hydrodynamics is expected to affect eDNA distribution and concentration. Yamamoto et al. (2016) reported a significantly positive correlation between the biomass of Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) and their eDNA concentration in the surface layer of Maizuru Bay. However, there was an inconsistency between the fish biomass and their eDNA concentration especially in the bottom layer. The estuarine circulation could have effects on the eDNA distribution. In this study, therefore, using a three-dimensional tracer model, we analyzed the relationship between the fish biomass and their eDNA concentration. The eDNA was treated as a passive tracer including its release and decomposition. The release and decomposition rate were obtained from tank experiments. The eDNA concentration from a fish market was assumed as an extremely high value. There are predominantly outward flows in the surface layer, while landward flows in the bottom layer (i.e., typical estuarine circulation). In the surface layer, high eDNA concentration near shoreline due to high fish density is transported out of the bay. On the other hand, the intrusion of offshore water reduces eDNA concentration in the bottom layer. The modeled spatial variation in eDNA concentration shows a good agreement with the observed one. This indicates the eDNA can reflects the fish biomass in Maizuru bay. |