第51回統計地震学セミナー / The 51st Statistical Seismology Seminar
- Date&Time
- 2015年9月1日（火）
/ 1 September, 2015 (Tuesday) 16:00 –
- Place
- 統計数理研究所 セミナー室4 (D312B)
/ Seminar room 4 (D312B) @ The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
- Speaker1
- Gerstenberger, Matthew
(Risk and Engineering Team leader, Senior Seismologist of GNS Science, New Zealand)
- Title
- " The New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Rethinking PSHA "
- Abstract
- TBA
- Speaker2
- CHEN, Shi
(Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China)
- Title
- " A study on the regional gravity changes before large earthquakes from the statistical perspectives "
- Abstract
- The repeated gravity surveys, also called mobile gravity measurements, have been carried out for decades in the Chinese mainland. Significant gravity changes have been detected before some cases of great earthquakes, such as the 1976 Tangshan Ms7.8 Earthquake, 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, etc. The main aim of the repeated gravity surveys is to monitor the geophysical field variations in some major seismic hazard zones. By this sort of in-situ gravimetric network, the yearly changes of regional gravity can be obtained. Through the Molchan Error Diagram tests, we found that observed gravity changes are statistically correlated to the occurrence of future large earthquakes, i.e., the gravity changes are more powerful than a seismicity rate model in forecasting large earthquakes. These results imply that gravity changes before earthquake include precursory information of future large earthquakes.
- Key words
- Gravity changes, Earthquake prediction, Molchan error diagram, Repeated gravity measurement, Chinese mainland.
