第18回統計地震学セミナー

日時

2011年2月17日(木)　15:00〜16:00

場所

統計数理研究所　D313室

講演者

Giuseppe Falcone
(Istituto nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome, Italy)

講演題目

Earthquake occurrence models and their validation

概要

This presentation describes the tests and the forecast verification procedures of three earthquake occurrence models applied to the various regions of the globe (Italy, California, Japan) to assess the occurrence probabilities of future earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour) models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years). The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES) model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS) forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST) model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. The forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective and in real time way making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams, Log-likelihood, N-Test, L-Test and Observed and forecasted number of events. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) for forecast testing for Italy (ETH Zurich) and Japan (ERI Tokyo).