No. 965

Title:

The correlation between the phase of the moon
and the occurrences of microearthquakes in the Tamba region
through point-process modeling

Author(s):

Iwata, Takaki (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics);
Katao, Hiroshi (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University)

Key words:

seismology; seismicity; time-series analysis; tides; point-process; AIC

Abstract:

    We study the correlation between the phase of the moon and the occurrence of microearthquakes, close to the fault of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, in the Tamba region. First, having suggested the existance of the correlation during the two-year period following the Kobe earthquake in a previous study, in this study we investigate the statistical significance of such correlation. Using point-process modeling and AIC (Akaike Information Criterion), we confirm that the existance of the correlation is statistically significant. Second, we investigate the temporal variation of the correlation during the four-year period following the Kobe earthquake. The result of the second analysis indicates that the correlation is strongest just after the Kobe earthquake and that it then becomes weaker year by year.