No. 1016

Title:

Low detection capability for global earthquakes after the occurrence of large earthquakes: Investigation of the Harvard CMT catalogue

Author(s):

Iwata, Takaki (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Key words:

seismology; seismicity; Bayesian analysis; earthquake catalogue; catalogue completeness; Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (ABIC)

Abstract:

    We investigete the detection capability for global earthquakes immediately after the occurrence of an large earthquake. We stack global earthquake sequences after occurrences of large earthquakes obtained from the Harvard CMT catalogue, and apply the statistical model representing an observed magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes to the stacked sequence. The temporal variation of model parameters which corresponds to the detection capability are estimated using a Bayesian approach. As a result of the analysis, it is found that the global detection capability is lower than the ordinary capability for several hours after the occurrence of a large earthquakes; for instance, the duration period of low detection capability after the occurrence of an earthquake whose magnitude is 7 or larger is estimated as approximately 12 hours.