## Fundamental Statistical Theory

This department aims at advancing theoretical investigations of the basic concepts and methods for the description and analysis of statistical phenomena. The activities of the staff range widely over fundamental statistical concepts, statistical inference, distribution theory, probability theory, and their applications.

There are four research divisions in this department. The Division of Statistical Inference and Decision Theory is concerned with theories of statistics, such as multivariate analysis, nonparametrics, estimation theory, statistical decision theory and asymptotics. The Division of Foundations of Statistics investigates fundamental concepts in statistical sciences. Subjects within the scope of this division include such important statistical notions, as information, entropy, uncertainty and randomness. The Division of Applied Probability is concerned with the study of modelling uncertain phenomena and its analysis, as well as the theory of probability and its application to statistical theory. The Division of Probability and Distribution Theory is set up for visiting staff to investigate theoretical subjects which are not covered by the above divisions.

- Staff -Katuomi Hirano, Director, Prof.

Tadashi Matsunawa, Prof.

Shinto Eguchi, Prof.

Satoshi Kuriki, Assoc. Prof.

Mihoko Minami, Assoc. Prof.

Kenji Fukumizu, Assoc. Prof.

Yoichi Nishiyama, Assist. Prof.

Takaaki Shimura, Assist. Prof.

- Subjects -

- Theory of estimation
- Testing statistical hypotheses
- Statistical inference in multivariate analysis
- Probability distributions and their statistical treatments
- Role of entropy as a fundamental statistical concept
- Statistical theory based on information
- Information geometry
- Geometry of random field
- Statistical learning theory
- Neural computation
- Stochastic processes and statistical asymptotic theory
- Statistical inference for stochastic processes
- Limit theorems and the decomposition of probability distributions
- Statistical theory of reliability
- Theory and application of order statistics
- Nonparametrics for stochastic processes
- Selectivity bias in observational studies
- Multiple comparisons
- Statistical pattern recognition
## Department of Statistical Methodology

This department aims to develop practical statistical methods for data collection and data analysis in various fields of science. Although the research of this department maintains a close relationship with particular fields of science, the principal aim is not to study those fields of science using statistical methods, but to develop statistical methods which contribute to the progress of those fields.

This department consists of six divisions. The Division of Sampling Theory develops techniques for social research and for categorical data analysis. In the Division of Spatial Statistics, studies of spatial events including statistical pattern analysis are conducted. The Division of Multidimensional Analysis is concerned with multidimensional qualitative data in behavioral sciences and life sciences. In the Division of Pattern Analysis, methods of classification analysis and pattern recognition involving exploratory methodologies are studied. The Division of Serial Events concerns modelling of point-process and space-time data particularly in applications to geoscience. Bayesian smoothing and change-point detection are also investigated. The Division of Experimental Design examines optimal experimental design and data measurement theories.

- Staff -Yoshiyuki Sakamoto, Director, Prof.

Masaharu Tanemura, Prof.

Takashi Nakamura, Prof.

Noboru Ohsumi, Prof. (-2004.3.31)

Yosihiko Ogata, Prof.

Atsushi Yoshimoto, Assoc. Prof. (-2003.3.31)

Tadahiko Maeda, Assoc. Prof.

Naomasa Maruyama, Assoc. Prof.

Shiro Ikeda, Assoc. Prof.

Takahiro Tsuchiya, Assoc. Prof.

Nobuhisa Kashiwagi, Assoc. Prof.

Wataru Matsumoto, Assist. Prof.

Kenichiro Shimatani, Assist. Prof.

Hirokazu Yanagihara, Assist. Prof. (-2003.3.31)

Tadayoshi Fushiki, Assist. Prof.

Nobuo Shimizu, Assist. Prof.

- Subjects -

- Social research methods and categorical data analysis
- Statistical research on the Japanese national character
- Cross-national comparative social survey
- Cohort analysis of repeated social research data
- Latent variables analysis in behavioral and social sciences
- Random packings, tessellations and their applications
- Spatial statistics, stochastic geometry, and their applications to biology
- Statistical inference and information geometry
- Statistical modeling of point processes and statistical seismology
- Statistical analysis of environmental data
- Bayesian modeling of complex data
- Statistical models in natural resource sciences, ecology and genetics
- Multidimensional scaling and related methods
- Classification, clustering and related methods in data science
- Textual data mining
- Methodologies of Internet surveys
- Data description language: D&D for performing data analysis
- Research environments for data science using PC-Unix systems
- Statistical prediction theory
- Influence of nonnormality in ordinary statistical methods

## Department of Prediction and Control

This department conducts research on a wide range of statistical modelling and analysis for prediction and control of dynamic random phenomena. It also promotes the study of optimization and statistical computation.

In the Division of Systems Analysis, efforts are concentrated on the statistical modelling, identification, and state-estimation of dynamic stochastic phenomena with complex inter-dependent elements. Nonstationary non-Gaussian models are developed for the time series analysis of data in econometrics.

The Division of Statistical Prediction is concerned with model fitting on the basis of statistical prediction theory of irregular phenomena. For example, statistical methods developed for inferring the evolutionary trees from DNA sequence data have succeeded in clarifying the phylogenetic position of human beings among primates, and are now being applied to study the evolution of mammals generally.

The Division of Control is concerned with optimal control of stochastic dynamic phenomena based on predictions. Special emphasis is laid on the coordinated use of inferential and optimization techniques, where statistical inference theory plays an essential role in obtaining the best predictions and optimization theory plays an essential role in deriving the optimal control rules.

The Division of Numerical Optimization conducts research on optimization theories, models, and algorithms. Inversion algorithms for treating ill-posed inverse problems are being developed and have already been successfully applied to seismic tomography, non-invasive medical diagnosis, and small angle X-ray scattering.

In the Division of Statistical Computing, algorithms for statistical analysis and simulations are studied.

The Division of Non-numerical Information Processing endeavours to extract either numerical information from non-numerical data or non-numerical information from numerical data, producing fruitful results in the analysis of human control behaviour.

The Division of Large Scale Statistical Systems is, as the name suggests, concerned with the modelling and management of large scale systems.

- Staff -Masami Hasegawa, Director, Prof.

Tomoyuki Higuchi, Prof. (Vice Director-General)

Tohru Ozaki, Prof.

Kunio Tanabe, Prof. (Vice Director-General)

Takashi Tsuchiya, Prof.

Makio Ishiguro, Prof.

Tetsuo Hashimoto, Assoc. Prof. (-2003.1.15)

Jun Adachi, Assoc. Prof.

Yoshihiko Miyasato, Assoc. Prof.

Yukito Iba, Assoc. Prof.

Seisho Sato, Assoc. Prof.

Yumi Takizawa, Assoc. Prof.

Yoshinori Kawasaki, Assist. Prof.

Ying Cao, Assist. Prof.

Genta Ueno, Assist. Prof.

Sumie Ueda, Assist. Prof.

Hiroshi Someya, Assist. Prof.

- Subjects -

- Statistical systems analysis
- Statistical theory of dynamic systems
- Nonstationary time series analysis
- Nonlinear non-Gaussian modelling of time series
- Statistical measurement by large-scale parametric models
- Statistical control, adaptive control, and optimal control
- Stochastic partial differential equation and stochastic finite element method
- Predictive evaluation of statistical models
- Numerical methods for manipulation of Bayesian models
- Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Gibbs Sampler
- Theory and algorithms for numerical optimization
- Mathematical programming
- Symbolic manipulation of statistical formulae
- Theory and methods for statistical simulation
- Algorithmic approach to network systems
- Analysis of DNA sequence data
- Bioinformatics
## Department of Interdisciplinary Statistics

This Department consists of the Division of Natural Science, the Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, and an additional division for visiting scholars. The primary goals of the Department are to conduct collaborative programs with researchers in universities, governments and companies, and to develop statistical methods designed to be useful for problems arising in specific fields of application. Such methods often depend on the particular conditions associated with specific problems.

The Division of Natural Science presently focuses on biostatistics and stochastic models among various research subjects. Risk assessments of environmental chemical compounds and epidemiological approaches to evaluating drug potency and health hazards have attracted the interest of some staff members. Theoretical research is also actively being conducted. A stochastic model has been introduced for the distribution of crystalline substances among space groups to compare with the actual data obtained from databases.

The Division of Humanities and Social Sciences has been engaged in longitudinal studies of national character based on data from social surveys conducted in Japan and many other countries. Such cross-national comparative research is interdisciplinary in nature, including fields such as sociology and psychology. In addition, new statistical methods for document analysis and archaeology are being developed and are generating substantial results. The Division of Applied Statistics annually invites four scholars from academic institutions throughout Japan.

- Staff -Yoshiaki Itoh, Director, Prof.

Takemi Yanagimoto, Prof.

Masakatsu Murakami, Prof. (-2004.3.31)

Hironori Fujisawa, Assoc. Prof.

Ryozo Yoshino, Assoc. Prof.

Toshio Ohnishi, Assist. Prof.

Yuejun Zheng, Assist. Prof. (-2003.9.30)

Takahiro Hoshino, Assist. Prof.

- Subjects -

- Risk assessment and estimation of safe doses
- Estimation of a high-dimensional parameter
- Statistical distribution on crystal symmetry
- Stochastic models on interacting particle systems
- Latent variable model
- Categorical data analysis
- Generalized linear model
- Quantitative analysis in archaeology
- Quantitative document analysis
- Cross-national comparative social survey
- Dynamic modelling of human cognition
- Sampling methodologies in public opinion research
- Estimation of causal effect and adjustment of biases of survey data
## Center for Development of Statistical Computing

This center is concerned with research and development of statistical computing and is responsible for maintaining the Institutie's computing system, including its network connections. It assists all members of the Institute and the collaborative research projects in working with computers in areas such as statistical data analysis, statistical modelling, numerical experiments, and information processing. Facilities under its management include a super computer system, parallel computers, a cluster system, a group of terminals, a physical random number generator, and local area networks that connect various workstations and computers. It is also concerned with the management of program packages for statistical analysis and the development of a fundamental set of software for statistical computing.

The Division of Research and Development 1 undertakes research on high-performance computing and on the design of special purpose equipments for statistical computing. The Division of Research and Development 2 undertakes research on network statistical computing, and maintains a network system of computers to support communicational activities in the Institute.

- Staff -Junji Nakano, Director, Prof.

Yoshiyasu Tamura, Prof. (Vice Director-General)

Tomoko Matsui, Assoc. Prof.

Satoshi Ito, Assoc. Prof.

Emiko Arahata, Assist. Prof.

- Subjects -

- Development of software for statistical data analysis
- Physical random number generator
- Neural networks and statistical data analysis
- Multimodal processing
- Biometrics
- Applied time series analysis and its methodology
- Mathematical programming and numerical optimization
- Markov Chain Monte Carlo
## Center for Information on Statistical Science

This center comprises three divisions; two of these are active on missions of promoting research collaboration and coordinating exchange programs. They also provide helpful information on statistical science, publicize research results to assist the transfer of new methodology, and educate the general public in statistical thinking.

The Division of Research Coordination endeavours to facilitate the creation of collaborative research both between statistical specialists and scientists of other fields, and between academicians and practical statisticians who work for industry. It gives necessary advice to those who want to hold international conferences related with those collaborations, and organizes workshops via a satellite communication system covering universities and institutions.

The Division of Education and Information extensively collects scientific information needed for research and study, communicates it through journals and computer networks, and rearranges it to construct scientific databases with the purpose of coordinating a complete collection of research materials on statistical science. To these ends, the division maintains an extensive library, which covers in depth not only the fields of statistics, but also areas of active research at the Institute, including physics, psychology, economics,

etc. In addition, the division is involved in educational activity: it organizesTutorial Courses of Statisticsand a series ofStatistical Mathematics Seminarsfor the public, researchers, and students. It gives relevant counsel to those who are faced with any difficulties in understanding or making use of statistical theories.The Division of International Research Visitor Program accommodates two outstanding foreign researchers as visiting professors, who are expected to make vital contributions to statistical science through collaboration with the Institute's scholars.

- Staff -Makio Ishiguro, Director, Prof.

Yasumasa Baba, Prof.

Takashi Okasaki, Prof.

Koji Kanefuji, Assoc. Prof.

Satoshi Yamashita, Assoc. Prof.

Hajime Ihara, Assoc. Prof.

- Subjects -

- Systematic transfer of scientific information and encouragement of research collaboration (domestic and international)
- Statistical analysis of multivariate and directional data
- Synthesis of stochastic processes
- Reliability theory based on life-span models
- Risk analysis of finance
- Analytical research of official statistics

## Prediction and Knowledge Discovery Research Center (PKDRC)

The prediction and knowledge discovery are important human scientific activities to extract useful information from a huge amount of data which complex systems have produced.

To boost these activities, this center aims at studying the statistical modeling and inference algorithms and developing the softwares, and thus attacks to solve real world problems in a wide variety of scientific domains, in particular, genome, earth, and space sciences.

There are three research groups in this center.

- Group -

- Molecular evolution research group
- Dynamic-magnetosphere modeling research group
- Statistical seismology research group

- Staff -Tomoyuki Higuchi, Director, Prof. (Vice Director-General)

Masami Hasegawa, Director of Dept. of Prediction and control, Prof.

Yosihiko Ogata, Prof.

Jun Adachi, Assoc. Prof.

Ying Cao, Assist. Prof.

Genta Ueno, Assist. Prof.

Takashi Washio, Visiting Assoc. Prof.

Yasuaki Murata, Visiting Assoc. Prof.

Masato Nikaido, Research Fellow

Yuriko Nishimoto, Research Fellow

Rui Yamaguci, Research Fellow

Satoru Yamashita, Research Fellow

Jiancang Zhuang, Research Fellow

Kazuyoshi Nanjo, Research Fellow

Hideya Mitsui, Graduate Student

Takahiro Yonezawa, Graduate Student

Yumie Murata, Graduate Student

Kazuyuki Nakamura, Graduate Student

Masatsugu Wakaura, Graduate Student

Ushio Tanaka, Graduate Student

- Subjects -

- Phylogenetic inference from genome data
- Modeling of genome evolution
- Modeling of biodiversity
- Automatic identification of the large-scale filed aligned current systems of the earth
- Development of the spatial-time empirical model for the earth magnetosphere
- Information fusion: Combination of various different information sources
- Precise prediction of occurrence-rates of earthquakes by the ETAS model
- Evaluation of seismicity anomalies relative to the predicted rates by the model
- Exploration of the relation between seismicity anomalies and crustal stress-changes
- Probability forecasting of large aftershocks and large earthquakes, and their evaluation

## Visiting Professors

To push forward the frontiers of interaction between statistics and other fields of science, the Institute provides positions for visiting professors. The Division of International Research Visitor Program in the Center for Information on Statistical Sciences has received eleven foreign visiting professors. In addition, each of the Institute's four departments have invited Japanese professors from universities and institutes as shown in the list below.

- Foreign Visiting Professors -

Peng, Hui (China) 2001. 3. 1-2004. 5.31Kim, Ji-Hyun (Korea) 2002.12. 1-2003. 2.28Zhong, Yang (China) 2002.12. 1-2003. 3.31Dolbilin, Nikolai Petrovich (Russia) 2003. 4. 1-2003. 6.30Bosch-Bayard, Jorge Francisco (Cuba) 2003. 4. 1-2003.12.31Doucet, Arnaud (France) 2003. 7. 1-2003. 9.30ibd. 2004. 7. 1-2004. 9.30Zhao, Yanyun (China) 2003.10. 1-2003.12.31Zhou, Guomo (China) 2004. 1. 1-2004. 3.31Zdunek, Rafal (Poland) 2004. 1. 1-2004. 3.31Mahmoud, Hosam (U.S.A.) 2004. 9. 1-2004.11.30Lee, Jung-Jin (Korea) 2004.12. 6-2005. 3. 5

- Japanese Visiting Professors -

Fukasawa, Atsushi 2002. 4-2003. 3ibd. 2004. 4-2005. 3Ishikawa, Yasushi 2002. 4-2004. 3Murata, Yasuaki 2002. 4-2005. 3Muroki, Hideyuki 2002. 4-2003. 3Okada, Mitsumasa 2002. 4-2003. 3Ohashi, Yasuo 2002. 4-2003. 3Takahashi, Rinya 2002. 4-2004. 3Yafune, Akifumi 2002. 4-2004. 3Yamada, Fumiyasu 2002. 4-2003. 3Yamaguchi, Kazunori 2002. 4-2003. 3Yamaoka, Kazue 2002. 4-2003. 3Fujie, Koichi 2003. 4-2004. 3Kurihara, Koji 2003. 4-2005. 3Maehara, Hiroshi 2003. 4-2005. 3Ohno, Yuko 2003. 4-2005. 3Shinoda, Koichi 2003. 4-2005. 3Taiji, Makoto 2003. 4-2005. 3Aki, Shigeo 2004. 4-2005. 3Ono, Yoshiro 2004. 4-2005. 3Zheng, Yuejun 2004. 4-2005. 3

## Visiting Research Fellows

In addition to visiting professors, the Institute provides research fellowships to researchers in Japan and abroad, from companies as well as from universities. The Institute also provides support for those who are appointed as staff of the Center of Excellence (COE) projects by the Ministry of Education and programs by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). A list follows showing research fellows received during the period January, 2003 to March, 2005.

(The list does not show all of the visiting fellows from abroad. Foreign visiting research fellows not associated with COE projects are listed under "Foreign Visitors" on page 21. )

- Japanese Research fellows for COE projects -

Ban-no, Hidekazu Date, Atsuko Fushiki, Tadayoshi Inoue, Kiyoshi Miyoshi, Yoshihiro Okada, Sumie Sugimoto, Teruhisa Takahashi, Hayato Takahashi, Hisanao Takenouchi, Takashi Tsukuma, Hisayuki Zhuang, Jincang

- Research fellows upon JSPS program -

Inoue, Kiyoshi Nanjo, Kazuyoshi Nikaido, Masato Sugimoto, Teruhisa Ueno, Genta

- Japanese visiting research fellows -

Fukazawa, Tomoko Hayakawa, Fumiyo Iwaki, Hiroko Iwata, Takaki Miyoshi, Yoshihiro Nagasaka, Kenji Nakamura, Takahiro Nishimoto, Yuriko Sato, Hideaki Sonoda, Katsurako Takeuchi, Akinobu Tomita, Makoto Tsuda, Hiroshi Yamamoto, Keiko Yamashita, Satoru

- Research fellows from the business sector -Kamioka, Hiroyuki

- Students from graduate school -

Fujimori, Kei Iwaki, Hiroko Maruyama, Yoshihito Mitsuya, Reiko Tanabe, Akihiro